PH PHOT OTOVOLTAI OVOLTAICS CS Alessandro Massi Pavan - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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THE THE BR BREAKTH AKTHROUGH ROUGH OF OF PH PHOT OTOVOLTAI OVOLTAICS CS Alessandro Massi Pavan Manchester October 18 th , 2017 ENE NERGY GY: : A KE KEY GL Y GLOB OBAL L CH CHALLENGE ENGE Energy is essential for human

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THE THE BR BREAKTH AKTHROUGH ROUGH OF OF PH PHOT OTOVOLTAI OVOLTAICS CS

Manchester October 18th, 2017

Alessandro Massi Pavan

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ENE NERGY GY: : A KE KEY GL Y GLOB OBAL L CH CHALLENGE ENGE

“Energy is essential for human development and energy systems are a crucial entry point for addressing the most pressing global challenges of the 21st century, including sustainable economic and social development, poverty eradication, adequate food production and food security, health for all, climate protection, conservation

  • f

ecosystems, peace and security” “Yet, more

  • re tha

than a dec decade ade int nto the the 21 21st

st century,

century, cur current rent ene nerg rgy sy syst stem ems do do no not meet th these se challenges” “A maj

major

  • r tra

ransfor nsforma mation tion is is req require uired to address these

challenges and to avoid potentially catastrophic future consequences for human and planetary systems”

Global Energy Assessment (GEA) 2013

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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OU OUTL TLIN INE

 Introduction (a boom in RES)  Five causes of the boom  The role of photovoltaics  History and breakthrough of PV  The future of photovoltaics  Conclusions

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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RES ES: 2.0TW TW COAL AL: 1.9TW TW GAS: 1.5TW TW NUCLEAR CLEAR: 0.4TW TW

A BOO BOOM I M IN N RENE NEWABLES WABLES

http://resourceirena.irena.org/gateway/dashboard/?topic=4&subTopic=16 Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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A BOOM BOOM I IN N RENE NEWABLES WABLES

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV IRENA A roadmap for a renewable energy future, 2016

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A BOO BOOM I M IN N RENE NEWABLES WABLES

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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TR TRAN ANSF SFOR ORMA MATI TION ON HAS AS ST STAR ARTE TED! D!

REN21, 2013 and 2014, REN 23, 2014 IRENA Renewable power generation costs in 2014

  • Electricity is the fastest-growing final form of energy

and the power sector contributes more than any other to the reduction in the share of fossil fuels

  • More than half (56%) (120GW) of the world’s new

electric generating capacity added in 2013 was renewable (72% in EU)

  • 2013: Chin

ina’s new renewable power capacity surpassed

new fossil fuel and nuclear capacity for the first time (38% in 2010)

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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ENE NERGY GY TRANSI NSITIONS TIONS

Year World energy consumption

biomass coal

  • il

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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OU OUTL TLIN INE

 Introduction (a boom in RES)  Five causes of the boom  The role of photovoltaics  History and breakthrough of PV  The future of photovoltaics  Conclusions

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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SC SCAR ARCITY CITY OF OF NAT NATURA URAL L RE RESO SOUR URCES CES

World Oil Outlook – OPEC 2012

Average Oil Demand (2013-2035): 100

Total reserves: 2,704

YEARS TO GO ARE 2,704/100 = 27!!!

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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CL CLIM IMAT ATE CH E CHAN ANGE GE

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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QU QUAL ALIT ITY Y OF OF LI LIFE

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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DR DROP OP IN IN RE RES C S COS OSTS TS

Solar and nuclear costs – the historic crossover J.O. Blackburn, S. Cunningham 2011 Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) PRIS database Chart by Carbon Brief

DR DROP OP IN IN RE RES S CO COST STS

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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FAC ACTO TORS RS OF OF CH CHAN ANGE GE

SCARCITY OF NATURAL RESOURCES CLIMATE CHANGE QUALITY OF LIFE DROP IN RES COSTS

SPE PEED ED OF OF INS NSTALLATION!!! TALLATION!!!

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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IRENA Renewable power generation costs in 2014

FUT UTUR URE EN E ENER ERGY GY MI MIX

Global Energy Assessment (GEA), 2013 Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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OU OUTL TLIN INE

 Introduction (a boom in RES)  Five causes of the boom  The role of photovoltaics  History and breakthrough of PV  The future of photovoltaics  Conclusions

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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TH THE R E ROL OLE OF E OF PH PHOT OTOV OVOL OLTA TAICS ICS

IEA, Renewables information: overview statistics, 2017

Aver erage age an annu nual al growth wth rat ates s of world d renew newables ables from 1990 90 to 2015 15

IRENA, Renewable power generation costs in 2014

Inv nvestm stments ents in 2 n 2014 14

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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IRENA Renewable Energy and Jobs – Annual Review 2015

TH THE R E ROL OLE OF E OF PH PHOT OTOV OVOL OLTA TAICS ICS

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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Perez R, Perez M. A fundamental look at energy reserves for the planet. IEA 2009

UN UNLIM IMIT ITED ED EN ENER ERGY Y SO SOUR URCE CE

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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AN «A «ANCIE IENT NT ID IDEA»

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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ADVA VANTAGES NTAGES OF OF PH PHOT OTOV OVOLTA OLTAICS ICS

Fuel source is vast and essentially infinite Very low O&M costs Relatability and durability Easy and quick installation Modular technology No moving parts (no noise) No emissions

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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ADVA VANTAGES NTAGES OF OF PH PHOT OTOV OVOLTA OLTAICS ICS

Can be integrated into new and existing buildings High public acceptance New distributed and no specialized jobs Choice and control Daily output peak can match the local demand Distributed generation (can be installed at nearly any point-of-use)

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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FAL ALSE SE MY MYTH THS

PV is too expensive PV modules never recover the energy required in making them No more R&D is needed PV requires too much land to ever meet significant fraction of world needs PV industry is polluting PV efficiency is a problem

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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PV CU CUMU MULAT ATIV IVE E POW OWER ER

WORLD LD EUR UROPE OPE

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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PV CU CUMU MULAT ATIV IVE E POW OWER ER

WORLD LD JAPAN AN CHIN INA

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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PV CU CUMU MULAT ATIV IVE E POW OWER ER

IT ITALY

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/solar-photovoltaics-deployment

UK UK

www.gse.it Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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PV ELECTR TRICITY TY IN SI SIX CO X COUN UNTR TRIES

Renewables information: overview statistics, 2017 Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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PV POW OWER ER PER ER CA CAPIT ITA A (2 (201 016) 6)

COUNTRY RY Install lled d Power [GW] Populat ation ion [Milli lion

  • ns]

Wp/per capita Growth (%)

Germany 42 81 518 4 Italy 19 60 317 2 Japan 28 127 220 25 Europe 149 742 200 5 UK 13 66 197 20 USA 40 319 125 58 China 78 1360 57 79 India 9 1250 7 79

  • World

ld 302 302 7571 7571 40 40 32 32

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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www.pvresources.com - http://www.q-cells.com/en/

GROU OUND-MO MOUNTE UNTED D PV SY SYST STEM EMS

2000 2000 – 0.02MW MW 2008 2008 – 1MW 2017 2017 – 1,000MW MW

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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C& C&I RO I ROOF OFTO TOP PV SY SYST STEM EMS

www.pvresources.com http://www.riverclack.com/ Courtesy of Barbara Terreni Hanwa Q Cells Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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OU OUTL TLIN INE

 Introduction (a boom in RES)  Five causes of the boom  The role of photovoltaics  History and breakthrough of PV  The future of photovoltaics  Conclusions

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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HIS ISTO TORY RY OF OF P PHOT OTOV OVOLT OLTAI AICS CS

1955, 1975, 1995, … 2015 marks a fundamental milestone in the history of PV: THE GR GRID ID PARITY PARITY and the FUEL PARITY RITY occurring in many countries of the world!!!

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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GRI RID D AN AND F D FUE UEL PAR ARIT ITIE IES

  • The grid

id-par parity ity occurs when the price

  • f electricity for the end consumer is

lower than the generation cost from PV

  • The fuel

el-par parity ity occurs when the cost of electricity from PV is comparable with the one from conventional technologies (such as thermoelectric and hydroelectric power plants)

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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GRI RID D PAR ARIT ITY Y – AN AN EX EXAM AMPLE

The Grid Parity is achieved for any condition and type

  • f

customer

  • F. Pauli, G. Sulligoi, V. Lughi, A. Massi Pavan

Grid Parity in the Italian C&I electricity market IEEE ICCEP, Alghero, 2015

Average electricity Price in Italy Type of customer Price [€uro cent/kWh] Residential - Trieste 20.8 Residential – Rome, Palermo 28.3 Commercial - Industrial 19.3

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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PV IS V IS MO MOST ST CO CONV NVENI NIENT ENT THA HAN N EVE VER

YEAR Electric icity y Price [€/kWh] Overnigh ght Capital al Cost [€] 2003 – Initial Capital Outlay 0.170 8,500.00 2006 – First feed-in tariff 0.198 7,000.00 2013 – Last feed-in tariff 0.251 2,400.00 2016 – No incentives 0.253 1,400.00

  • A. Massi Pavan, M. Chiandone, V. Lughi, G. Sulligoi

Despite the attainment of grid-parity the Italian PV market does not take off. An analysis IET RPG, 2014

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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FUE UEL PAR ARIT ITY Y – AN AN EX EXAM AMPLE

MEDI DIAN AN VAL ALUE UE OF LCOE OE 71.3 .3 €/MWh

  • A. Massi Pavan et al.

Leading the way toward fuel parity in pv: the utility-scale market in Sicily, Italy EEEIC, 2016

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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GRID ID AND ND FUEL EL PARITY ITY PV BRE V BREAKTHRO KTHROUGH UGH

  • In Europe the gri

rid-parit parity y is obtained for almost all the residential and C&I applications

  • In high irradiance areas (Sicily) the Utility-Scale

PV plants are approaching the fuel-parit parity

The end of incentives phase and the new opportunities represented by the grid and fuel-parity pave the transition from the childhood to maturity of the photovoltaic market

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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OU OUTL TLIN INE

 Introduction (a boom in RES)  Five causes of the boom  The role of photovoltaics  History and breakthrough of PV  The future of photovoltaics  Conclusions

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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TO TOWARD RD GL GLOBAL OBAL GR GRID ID AND ND FUEL UEL-PARITY PARITY

YESTERDAY MODULES

Modul dules es [€/Wp] p] BOS [€/Wp Wp] System tem [€/Wp] p] BOS/sy syst stem em [%] [%] 1990 10 2,5 12,5 20 2000 5,5 1,5 7 21 2011 1,1 1,3 2,4 54 2012 0,6 0,85 1,45 61 Reduction [%] 94 94 38 38 88 88 /

TOMORROW - BOS BOS (Balance Of the System) All costs except the PV modules TODAY PERFORMANCES

IEA PVPS Annual report 2012 Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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TO TOWARD RD GLOB OBAL AL GRID ID AND FU D FUEL EL-PARITIES PARITIES

Price ($/m2) Efficiency (%)

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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SU SUMM MMAR ARIZ IZING ING ...

GRID-PARITY - RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL/INDUSTRIAL (C&I) (Italian) Electricity Price (€/kWh) 0,193 – 0,283 Photovoltaic LCOE (€/kWh) 0,075 – 0,140 FUEL-PARITY - UTILITY SCALE SYSTEMS Cost of electricity by different sources (€/kWh) 0,045 – 0,150 Cost of electricity from a PV Utility Scale (€/kWh) 0,058 – 0,085 BOS COST REDUCTION – ECONOMIES OF SCALE – NEW TECHNOLOGIES FORECASTED LCOEs (2025) Residential and C&I (€/kWh) 0,053 – 0,098 Utility Scale – Sicily (€/kWh) 0,025 – 0,037

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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CA CAPAC ACIT ITY Y FOR OREC ECAS ASTI TING NG

IRENA – The power to change: solar and wind cost reduction potential to 2025 Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

TH THE RO ROLE OF OF DS DSOs Os

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CO CONC NCLUSI USIONS ONS

  • RES are pushing the energy sector
  • The PV market is the fastest growing in the RES sector
  • Europe led this growth in the past, while today China,

Japan and USA are the drivers of the market

  • The attainment of the grid and fuel parities represent a

fundamental milestone in the history of this solar technology

  • The PV LCOE will continue to drop in the future and the

market seems having in the near future the potential to do not stop growing exponentially

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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POW OWER ER SU SUPPL PLY Y CH CHAI AIN IT ITAL ALY 200 Y 2003 3 - 2013 2013

GSE, Rapporto Statistico 2013

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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“It is is the he greatest greatest

  • f
  • f

all all mista mistakes kes to to do do no nothin thing be because use you can can only do do little“

Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV

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YI YIEL ELD D AT AT DI DIFFER ERENT ENT LOC OCAT ATIO IONS NS

LOCATIO ION Yield d (kWh/k h/kWp Wp) Rel elati tive ve Yi Yiel eld With h respec ect to Berlin n (%) Manchester 880 92 London 1,000 104 Berlin 960 100 Milan 1,210 126 Rome 1,450 151 Palermo 1,540 160

PVGIS, JRC European Commission Manchester - October 18th, 2017 ALESSANDRO MASSI PAVAN, The Breakthrough of PV