Pellet Fuels Institute Membership Meeting Wednesday, February 29, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Pellet Fuels Institute Membership Meeting

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Don Johnson, HPBA Director of Market Research

Agenda

• Hearth appliance

shipment statistics

• Pellet appliance

shipment statistics

• Biomass central heating

shipment statistics

Wood stove 46% Gas stove 33%

Pellet stove 11%

Other 10% Natural gas 76% Propane 24%

Own Fireplace/Stove in Primary Residence

Total Respondents (n=3,560)

2010 Study

Fireplace/Stove Owners (n=2,500) Fireplace Owners (n=1,996) Stove Owners (n=504) Gas Fireplace Owners Gas Stove Owners

Own Fireplace

• nly: 75%

Own stove only: 15% Own Both Fireplace and Stove: 10%

Approximately 112 Million Households in the U.S. 1.6 Millions Households with a Pellet Stove

“Top of the Line” Hearth Industry Shipment Statistics

U.S. Hearth Appliance Shipments in 2011

• Cordwood – 197,181
• Gas* – 573,468
• Pellet – 62,451
• TOTAL – 833,100

*Includes Gas Log Estimated Data (237,500)

Electric Hearth Appliance Shipments – 1,550,000

U.S.Hearth Appliance Shipments by Type of Fuel -- 2011

Cordwood 24% Pellet 7% Gas* 70%

*Includes Gas Log Data

Electric Hearth Estimates Excluded

Between 2010 and 2011 . . .

• Cordwood appliance shipments

decreased 15%

– From 230,948 to 197,181

• Gas appliance shipments

decreased 12%

– From 650,911 to 573,468

• Pellet appliance shipments

increased 41%

– From 44,288 to 62,451

Overall, industry declined 10% between 2010 and 2011

Electric hearth appliance shipments increased 11% between 2010 and 2011

Since 1998 . . .

• Cordwood appliance

shipments decreased 70%

– From 652,500 to 197,181

• Gas appliance shipments

decreased 64%

– From 1,611,750 to 573,468

• Pellet appliance shipments

increased 83%

– From 34,000 to 62,451 Overall, industry decreased 64% between 1998 and 2011

Electric Hearth Estimates Excluded

Total U.S. Hearth Appliance Shipments

1998--2011

500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1

L

• w

e s t l e v e l i n a t 1 3 y e a r s

Electric Hearth Estimates Excluded

The downturn has stabilized?

U.S. Hearth Appliance Shipments

1998--2011

500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1

Cordwood Gas Pellet

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 2 1

U.S. Pellet Appliance Shipments

1992--2011

8 out of the Last 12 Years Have Seen Increases

Early Estimates Somewhat Overstated?

But 3 out of the Last 5 Years Have Seen Declines

Pacific 9% Mountain 7% Great Lakes 18% Northeast 52% Southeast 5% Central 9%

U.S. Pellet Appliance Shipments 2011

U.S. Freestanding Stove Appliance Shipments by Type of Fuel -- 2011

Pellet 34% Gas 15% Cordwood 51%

Pellet Stoves vs. Freestanding Stoves

Percent of Pellet Stoves vs. Freestanding Stoves 2004-2011

23% 34% 40% 23% 37% 42% 26% 42% 23% 34% 51% 54% 39% 51% 30% 32% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year Percent Units Dollars

% of Reps Who Feel Pellet Appliance Sales are Up Compared to a Year Ago

Quarterly--June 2000 through January 2011

27% 70% 87% 94% 97% 86% 36% 44% 31% 24% 17% 20% 57% 70% 57% 52% 57% 61% 69% 78% 100% 100% 100% 88% 66% 17% 0% 0% 7% 8% 43% 83% 100% 67% 35% 13% 15% 19% 8% 16% 21% 8% 20%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

J u n 2 S e p 2 D e c 2 M a r 2 1 J u n 2 1 S e p 2 1 D e c 2 1 M a r 2 2 J u n 2 2 S e p 2 2 D e c 2 2 M a r 2 3 J u n 2 3 S e p 2 3 D e c 2 3 A p r 2 4 J u l 2 4 O c t 2 4 J a n 2 5 A p r 2 5 J u l 2 5 O c t 2 5 J a n 2 6 A p r 2 6 J u l 2 6 O c t 2 6 J a n 2 7 A p r 2 7 J u l 2 7 O c t 2 7 J a n 2 8 A p r 2 8 J u l 2 8 O c t 2 8 J a n 2 9 A p r 2 9 J u l 2 9 O c t 2 9 J a n 2 1 A p r 2 1 J u l 2 1 O c t 2 1 J a n 2 1 1

Measurement Scale Changed April 2006

Central Heating Systems Fueled with Biomass Fuels

• Program started 2Q09
• Two categories collected:

– Central Heating Systems fueled with Pellets – Central Heating Systems fueled with Cordwood/Wood Chips

Central Biomass Heating Units Shipped Since April 2009

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2009* 2010 2011 Pellet (US) Pellet (Canada) Wood Chip (US) Wood Chip (Canada)

*April 2009 through December 2009

Pellet Appliance Observations

• Pellet Appliance Shipments and Sales

are the most volatile in the hearth industry

• When the consumers view the price of

heating their home to be expensive, then sales and shipments dramatically increase

• When the consumers view the price of

heating their home to be reasonable, then sales and shipments are much less robust

Questions?