Wood Pellet Fuel A Low Carbon Replacement for Fossil Fuels in the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Wood Pellet Fuel A Low Carbon Replacement for Fossil Fuels in the Power and Heating Sectors

(with the necessary condition that the feedstock is sustainably sourced)

William Strauss, PhD November 4, 2019

Modern Wood Heat Symposium

• Dr. William Strauss,

President Named one of the most influential leaders in the biomass sector in 2016 and 2017 by Argus Media. Recipient of the 2012 International Excellence in Bioenergy Award. A leader in the industry for more than two decades. John Swaan, Pellet Plant Operations John is a leading expert on pellet plant operations. He is the founder of Pacific BioEnergy and producer of the first bulk shipment of wood pellets from North America to Europe (1998). Recipient of the 2014 International Founders Award.

Senior Members of the FutureMetrics Team

Annette Bossler, Market Intelligence Expert Annette provides detailed market intelligence on renewable energy policies around the world with a strong focus on

• Japan. Annette speaks,

reads, and writes fluent

• Japanese. She was the 2013

recipient of the President’s Award from the Maine International Trade Center. Laurenz Schmidt, Technology Specialist Laurenz is a globally respected expert in thermodynamics and mass and energy flow dynamics in the renewable energy

• sector. He reviews and

analyzes all advanced pellet technologies. Yoshinobu Kusano, Japan Policy Advisor Yoshi is one of the most highly respected participants in the Japanese biomass sector. He was a key member of Sumitomo’s pellet trading

• perations. He provides

valued insights into Japanese policy developments.

The reason that we care about CO2 emissions

If the trend in the chart below is followed, we will release most of the geologic carbon sequestered over hundreds of millions of years over a span of about 250 years.

Curve is from a simulation by FutureMetrics 250 Years ➔

Two Major Sectors in the Wood Pellet Industry:

Heating Power (industrial)

The heating markets, in most jurisdictions (not the US), are helped by carbon taxes on heating oil. The taxes are explicitly aimed at lowering the use of fossil fuels. Pellets are not subject to a carbon tax. The implication is that pellets are a low carbon solution.

After 2020, under current policy, growth in Europe and UK is almost

• ver.

Japan and South Korea are the major new growth markets.

The industrial wood pellet sector is supported by various policies to compensate the power generators for the higher cost of pellet fuel versus coal. The policies are based on a strategy to lower carbon emissions from the power sector. In order to receive the support, the utility has to prove that the pellet fuel lowers carbon emissions. This is done through independent third-party certification schemes that prove that the sources

• f feedstock for making the pellets are sustainable. (For example: FSC, SFI, PEFC, SBP)

That is, the annual supply of pellet feedstock cannot lower the forest’s inventory across the landscape and therefore cannot lower the stock of carbon held by the forested lands.

Biogenic carbon contained in forest biomass released to atmosphere. Biogenic carbon released during energy generation recaptured in new growth on forest landscape.

Unlike geologic carbon (hydrocarbon), forest carbon (carbohydrate) is continuously recycled. As long as the harvest rate does not exceed the growth rate over the managed landscape, the atmosphere does not experience a net increase in CO2 concentration from use of pellets.

Geologic carbon released across the supply chain.

Diagram courtesy

• f Jennifer Jenkins,

Chief Sustainability Officer, Enviva

It is a continuous and dynamic process across the managed landscape

Absolute necessary condition:

Must be equal to

• r less than want

is sequestered.

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

kg CO2e/ MWhe

Wood Pellet Supply Chain Coal UK 2020 Electricity Emissions Threshold

TOTAL EMISSIONS BY FUEL WOOD PELLET EMISSIONS BREAKDOWN

• 20

40 60 80 100 120

kg CO2e/ MWhe

Production Transport by Sea Transport of Feedstock Harvesting and Chipping Transport to Port Tansport to Power Plant Storage and Handling Crop Production

87% Total CO2 Emission Reduction

Source: supply chain carbon analysis for pellets produced at Enviva Pellets Sampson and shipped to Drax’s 38% efficiency bioelectricity plant in Selby, UK using the current UK biomass carbon accounting methodology, and Weiwei Wang 2015 Environmental Research Letters report

Only the supply chain carbon footprint is accounted for when the power station switching from coal to pellets shows its net reduction in CO2 emissions.

Courtesy of Jennifer Jenkins, Chief Sustainability Officer, Enviva

Assuming pellets are sourced from managed forests that satisfy the “necessary condition” heating pellets provide a significant reduction in CO2 emissions.

The notion of carbon debt is an artifact of assumptions about spatial scale and when to start the clock.

Looking at one plot or even one tree is a flawed basis for modeling. Starting the carbon accounting at the moment of harvest and replanting is a flawed basis for modeling.

[From a 2013 paper by FutureMetrics that references the Manomet Study]

A serious flaw in research that shows that carbon emissions for wood combustion add to the stock of atmospheric carbon is the timing of their carbon-cycle assumptions. Many models begin the story at the moment the wood is harvested. Most of the studies that show that wood-to-energy adds to the carbon stock of the atmosphere assume a carbon debt is created that has to be repaid by new growth over decades. The chart on the next slide shows the carbon-cycle for one plot (or even one tree). Note that the net carbon stock of the atmosphere is reduced over those thirty years as the new growth absorbs carbon. If every ton from that plot is combusted (highly unlikely!), all

• f that carbon is returned to the atmosphere, but the net outcome will never be higher

than the baseline.

Finally, just from the point of view of a viable business model:

Who would build a new pulp mill or pellet mill for hundreds of millions of dollars with the intention of running out of feedstock in a few years? Or with the intention of the feedstock becoming more expensive every year as it becomes more scarce?

Major capital investments require continuous long-term operations with stable costs.

That means sizing the plant so that its demand for wood does not exceed the sustainable supply and therefore the plant can receive wood every day of the year for decades at costs that allow profitable operations.

In summary Wood pellets sourced from forests that are not being depleted in terms of the net stock of wood (and thus carbon) held in the managed landscape should be a key part of any decarbonization strategy for both the heating and power sectors.

Thank you William Strauss

WilliamStrauss@FutureMetrics.com  Bill inspecting the BC forest to verify sustainable management practices.