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Passenger Transportation Sector AIM Training Workshop Tokyo, Japan - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Passenger Transportation Sector AIM Training Workshop Tokyo, Japan Oct 22-26, 2007 Introduction to Energy Balance Table Tomoki Ehara Contents Contents Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions Terms and definitions Calculation

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SLIDE 1

Passenger Transportation Sector

AIM Training Workshop Tokyo, Japan Oct 22-26, 2007

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SLIDE 2

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Contents

  • Terms and definitions
  • Structure of CO2 emissions from

passenger transportation sector

  • Trip demand (Passenger-km)

– Passenger trip generation coefficient – Modal share – Average Trip distance

  • Energy consumption

– Service share (technology selection) – Energy efficiency

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions

Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

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SLIDE 3

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Terms and Definitions

Trip

Trip is defined as unit of “move” of person from one point to another with a certain objective. Trip changes only when the

  • bjective of the move changes. Trip is counted as one even if

several modes of transportation are used for the objective.

Person Trip Survey

“Personal-trip” survey is aimed to understand the whole trip generated in a day with in a region in question, and investigate when, who, and for what purpose, the trips were generated.

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions

Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

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SLIDE 4

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Terms and Definitions

Trip Generation Coefficient

Number of trips generated by a certain person per day

A B

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions

Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

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SLIDE 5

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Calculation flow of CO2 emissions

Service demand Energy Consumption CO2 Emission Personal Attribute

Trip generation coeff. How many trips are generated every day?

  • Ex. Urban, 15-64 years old, Female, Shopping： 0.88trip/day

Modal Share Which transportation mode is selected?

  • Ex. Car? Raiway? Maritime? Aviation?

Average trip distance What is the trip distance of each mode? Ex.Cars：12.4km/trip, Railways：22 km/trip Technology selection What kind of technology (fuel) is selected?

  • Ex. Gasoline vehicle 20％, FCV60％, EV20％

Energy efficiency To what extent the energy efficiency would be improved?

  • Ex. XX% efficiency improvement from 2000

CO2 emission coeff. What is the CO2 emission coefficient of electricity/hydrogen?

  • Ex. Nuclear, Renewable, Natural gas, Oil…

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

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SLIDE 6

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Calculation Flow of Japan TDM_P

Population [Attribute, Area] Trip Generation Coefficient [Attribute, Day, Area, Objective] Average Trip Distance (km/Trip) [Day, Area, Mode] Intra-Area Transportation (person-km) [Mode] Modal Share (%) [Day, Area, Mode] Population [Attribute] Trip Generation Coefficient [Attribute, Objective, Mode] Average Trip Distance (km/Trip) [Mode] Modal Share (%) [Attribute, Objective, Mode] Inter-Area Transportation (person-km) [Mode] Population [Attribute, Area] Net-Total Conversion ratio Passenger Transportation [Persons-km] ：Data Flow Population Dynamic Model License [Attribute] Employment [Attribute] Macro Economic Model ：Endogenous Variables ：Exogenous Variables

Intra-area transportation Inter-area transportation

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

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SLIDE 7

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 ～15 15～65 65～ ～15 15～65 65～ ～15 15～65 65～ Urban Agricultural Area Mounainous area trip/day/person Return Commute (Work) Commute (School) Bussiness Shopping Sightseeing

Trip Generation Coefficient

Male, Weekday

Heavily dependent on population structure!!

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions

Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

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SLIDE 8

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Trip Generation Coefficient

Female, Weekday

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 ～15 15～65 65～ ～15 15～65 65～ ～15 15～65 65～ Urban Agricultural Area Mounainous area trip/day/person Return Commute (Work) Commute (School) Bussiness Shopping Sightseeing

Different trip objectives from that of Male!!

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions

Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

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SLIDE 9

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Modal Share

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Metropolitan Area Local Urban Area Local Core Cities Other Metropolitan Area Local Urban Area Local Core Cities Other Weekday Holiday Car Bus Railway Walk&Bike

Heavily dependent on the areas (infrastructures)!!

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions

Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

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SLIDE 10

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Trip Distances

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Metropolitan area Local Area km/trip

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions

Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

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SLIDE 11

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV)

Ba tte ry Inverter Engine

Gene rat or

Motor Ba tte ry Inverter Engine

Gene rat or

Motor

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Small Cars Ordinary Cars

  • No. of Hybrid Cars in Japan

Hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) combine the benefits of gasoline engines and electric motors and can be configured to obtain different objectives, such as improved fuel economy, increased power, or additional auxiliary power for electronic devices and power tools. www.fueleconomy.com

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions

Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

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SLIDE 12

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Flexible fuel vehicles (FFV)

Flexible fuel vehicles (FFVs) are designed to run on gasoline or a blend of up to 100%

  • ethanol. Except for a few engine and fuel

system modifications, they are identical to gasoline-only models.FFVs have been produced since the 1980s, and dozens of models are currently available.. FFVs experience no loss in performance when operating on E85 (85% ethanol) in

  • USA. However, since a litter of ethanol

contains less energy than a litter of gasoline, FFVs typically get about 20-30% fewer miles per gallon when fueled with E85. Ethanol is produced from corn and other crops and produces less greenhouse gas emissions than conventional fuels. www.fueleconomy.com

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions

Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

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SLIDE 13

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Electric vehicles (EV)

In an electric vehicle (EV), a battery or

  • ther energy storage device is used to store

the electricity that powers the motor. EV batteries must be replenished by plugging in the vehicle to a power source. Some electric vehicles have onboard chargers; others plug into a charger located outside the vehicle. Both types, however, use electricity that comes from the power grid. Although electricity production may contribute to air pollution, EVs are considered zero- emission vehicles because their motors produce no exhaust or emissions.

Alternative Fuel and Advanced Vehicle Center

Battery Inverter Motor Battery Inverter Motor

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions

Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

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SLIDE 14

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Fuel Cell Hybrid Vehicles

Burning fossil fuels such as gasoline or diesel adds greenhouse gases to the earth's

  • atmosphere. Greenhouse gases trap heat and thus warm the earth because they

prevent a significant proportion of infrared radiation from escaping into space. FCVs powered by pure hydrogen emit no greenhouse gases. If the hydrogen is generated by reforming fossil fuels, some greenhouse gases are released, but much less than the amount produced by conventional vehicles.

Alternative Fuel and Advanced Vehicle Center

http://www.jhfc.jp

Air Hydrogen Power Hydrogen Tank

Fuel Cell

Water Hydrogen Hydrogen Tank Hydrogen Tank Hydrogen Tank

Motor

Air Hydrogen Power Hydrogen Tank

Fuel Cell

Water Hydrogen Hydrogen Tank Hydrogen Tank Hydrogen Tank

Motor

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions

Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

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SLIDE 15

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Cars (Projection)

1.3 2.0 5.0 6.0 1.0 1.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 4.0 5.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Electric Vehicles Fuel Cell Hybrid Gasoline Vehicles Gasoline Hybrid

Efficiencies Indexes of Vehicles (Relative to current gasoline vehicles 2000=1.0)

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions

Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

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SLIDE 16

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Railway

100 66 47 37.6 20 40 60 80 100

Conventional Lines

Regenerating brake

Regenerating brake＋VVVF

Penetration Rate in 2000 JR-East JR-West 60% 40%

METI (2005) 2050 Target 100 66 47 37.6 20 40 60 80 100

Conventional Lines

Regenerating brake

Regenerating brake＋VVVF

Penetration Rate in 2000 JR-East JR-West 60% 40%

METI (2005) 2050 Target

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions

Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

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SLIDE 17

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Maritime

a) METI(2005)：Strategic Technology Roadmap in Energy Field -Energy Technology Vision 2100 b) Lovins(2004)：Winning the Oil Endgame Ref：

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Energy Efficiency（2000年=100）

2050's 2050's Target Target

METI 2005 a) RMI 2005 b) RMI 2005 b) <$0.12/gallon <$0.22/gallon

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Energy Efficiency（2000年=100）

2050's 2050's Target Target

METI 2005 a) RMI 2005 b) RMI 2005 b) <$0.12/gallon <$0.22/gallon

The Super-Eco ship will be equipped with highly efficient gas turbine and electric driven contra-rotating podded propulsor.

NMRI: http://www.nmri.go.jp/eco-pt/index_e.html

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions

Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

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SLIDE 18

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Aviation

http://www.iata.org/ps/publications/9486.htm

* New aircraft are 70% more fuel efficient than 40 years ago and 20% better than 10 years ago. * Airlines are aiming for a further 25% fuel efficiency improvement by 2020. * Modern aircraft achieve fuel efficiencies of 3.5 litres per 100 passenger km.

  • The A380 and B787 are aiming for

3 litres per 100 passenger km – better than a compact car

IATA Website

RTK: Revenue tonne-km ATK: Available tonne-kilometre Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions

Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

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SLIDE 19

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Results

・Electricity generation / Hydrogen production with low carbon energy resources (nuclear, fossil fuel with CCS etc) Changes in CO2 intensity of secondary energy Fuel change ・Lightening of car body ・Improvement of air resistance ・Energy efficient aviation, maritime, railways ・Modal shift especially in urban area ・Application of FCV/EV Energy Efficiency Improvement ・Changes in trip characteristics associated with population change ・Shorter trip distances derived from intensive land use Natural decrease in demand ・Electricity generation / Hydrogen production with low carbon energy resources (nuclear, fossil fuel with CCS etc) Changes in CO2 intensity of secondary energy Fuel change ・Lightening of car body ・Improvement of air resistance ・Energy efficient aviation, maritime, railways ・Modal shift especially in urban area ・Application of FCV/EV Energy Efficiency Improvement ・Changes in trip characteristics associated with population change ・Shorter trip distances derived from intensive land use Natural decrease in demand ・Electricity generation / fuel production from low carbon energy resources (Biomass) Changes in CO2 intensity of secondary energy Fuel change ・Lightening of car body ・Improvement of air resistance ・Promotion of energy efficient aviation, maritime, railways ・Introduction of mass transit ・Increase in walk & bike ・Spread of biomass fuel Energy Efficiency Improvement ・Changes in trip characteristics associated with population change ・Decrease in trip demand by spread of new work style (Small office, Home

  • ffice etc)

Natural decrease in demand ・Electricity generation / fuel production from low carbon energy resources (Biomass) Changes in CO2 intensity of secondary energy Fuel change ・Lightening of car body ・Improvement of air resistance ・Promotion of energy efficient aviation, maritime, railways ・Introduction of mass transit ・Increase in walk & bike ・Spread of biomass fuel Energy Efficiency Improvement ・Changes in trip characteristics associated with population change ・Decrease in trip demand by spread of new work style (Small office, Home

  • ffice etc)

Natural decrease in demand

2000 2050 B 2050 A

3 16 16 8 2 6 6 5 20 CO2 Emission＝ 45MtC 8 Scenario A Scenario B

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions

Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

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SLIDE 20

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Any Questions?

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions

Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

Thank you for your attention!!

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SLIDE 21

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Exercise

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions

Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

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SLIDE 22

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Exercise

  • Calculate or estimate “Trip generation

coefficient”, “Modal share”, and “average trip distance from given dataset (or your national statistics)

  • Assume the parameter changes in 2050

based on narrative visions and estimate passenger transportation demand (Passenger-km)

  • Explain grounds for parameter settings
  • Calculate energy consumption & CO2

emission using ESS tool

  • If you finish the exercise above try freight

transportation sector

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions

Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

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SLIDE 23

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Template for parameter settings

Base Year Population million Trip Generation Coefficient trip/capita/day Generated trip (Year) 0 million trip Urban Population rate Unit Walk Car Bus Railway Modal Share % Trip Distance km/trip Volume of transportation mil.passenger-km -

  • No. of passengers

passenger/vehicle Volume of transportation Vehicle-km

  • Modal Share

% Trip Distance km/trip Passenger trip mil.passenger-km -

  • No. of passengers

passenger/vehicle Volume of transportation Vehicle-km

  • Modal Share

% Trip Trip Trip Distance km/trip Passenger trip mil.passenger-km -

  • No. of passengers

passenger/vehicle Volume of transportation Vehicle-km

  • Statistical Dat mil.Passenger-km

Total Urban Rural

PT

Pass.-km

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions

Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise

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SLIDE 24

AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 22-26, 2007

Introduction to Energy Balance Table

Tomoki Ehara

Template for parameter settings

Terms & Definitions Terms & Definitions

Calculation structure Calculation structure

  • Transport. demand
  • Transport. demand

Contents

Energy consumption Energy consumption Exercise Exercise Service share & Efficiencies (Passenger)

Category Grounds for the parameters (Efficiencies) Grounds for the parameters (Service share) Motorbike Car Bus Aviation Maritime Railway