P REVIEW 2018 the STAT PACK Live is presented by theStatPack.com 1
What Did 2017 Give Us? 3 Source: Pinterest (cropped)
China +54% Global India +39% Stock Germany +28% Markets Up Japan +24% (2017) Great Britain +22% U.S. S&P 500 +22% Source: Bloomberg
Robust Global Markets = International Visitors Source: mccarran.com
Global Growth Helps Las Vegas 42.2 million visitors (2017) $129.45 average room rate (+2.8%) Source: LVCVA
Low U.S. Unemployment
Modestly Higher Interest Rates
In 2017, the price of single family homes in Southern Nevada rose by 16% (Source: Home Builders Research) Source: iStock.com 9
Record High Consumer Net Worth Source: Bloomberg
But can this continue? Source: http://entertainment.ie
Is an 8-year expansion normal…? Source: https://za.pinterest.com/pin/510947520208083891/
Extra Innings …? Ex Extra Inning a Innings? s? Re Really? Really? Need Source Source: www.hlntv.com
15
High CEO Confidence CEO Confidence Index 8 7 6 5 Conference 4 Board CEO Confidence 3 Index 2 1 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bloomberg
Even Higher Small Business Confidence Small Business Confidence 110 105 100 Small 95 Business Optimism 90 Index 85 80 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Bloomberg
Really High Consumer Confidence
Source: https://nous.my/win-game-life/
quickmeme.com
Tax Reform Adds Octane Source: iStock.com
Percentage Real GDP Growth Last year we said…
And now…?
Tax reform helps US markets Reasons Global economic recovery helps Why It Can Europe and Asia Continue Slow pace of interest rate hikes isn’t scaring anyone yet Accelerating GDP growth
What Could Possibly Interrupt This Love-fest? Source: http://www.xxlmag.com/news/2017/09/kanye-west-taylor-swift-mtv-vmas-speech/
Inflation Comes Back Inflation Returns Source: http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/15/news/louise-linton-steven-mnuchin-dollar-bills-treasury/index.html
High Leverage Leads to Asset Bubbles Source: iStock.com
New Fed Chair Overreacts New Fed Chair Overreacts Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-chair-jerome- powell-trump-pick-for-yellen-replacement-2017-11
Trade War or NAFTA Withdrawal Source: https://www.pinterest.com/pin/459437599463745929/
Oil Shock Source: https://www.pinterest.com/pin/531495193496153584/
Oil Shock Source: http://www.personal.psu.edu/afr3/blogs/siowfa12/2012/11/the-gas-shortage.html
China Hard Landing Image source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3742489/Track-field-events-hold- torrential-downpour-hits-Olympic-stadium-pole-vault-discus-hurdles-place.html
Inflation Comes Back Recap: High Leverage Leads to Asset Bubbles What New Fed Chair Over Reacts Could Trade War/NAFTA Withdrawal Interrupt Korean Peninsula Conflict This? Oil Shock China Hard Landing
Live Long and Prosper Source: https://www.ebay.com › ... › Wardrobe › Reproductions
Source : Imgflip.com 38
Fortune Telling Is My Thing “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” — The late Ezra Solomon, economist & professor of economics at Stanford University 39
The Job Market: We’re Back Source : Giphy.com 40
56,000 Jobs Above 2007 Peak 12MMA Job Growth & Headline Unemp. Rate: 11/2007-11/2017, Las Vegas MSA 15% 10% 5.1% 5% 0% +3.0% -5% Job Growth Unemp. Rate -10% -15% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 41
How About One of So. NV’s Favorite Industries? Source : Imgflip.com 42
Construction Jobs Below Peak But Steadily Building 12MMA YoY Construction Jobs: 11/2007-11/2017 Nevada & Las Vegas MSA 160,000 140,000 Nevada Las Vegas MSA 120,000 100,000 84,417 80,000 60,000 62,775 40,000 20,000 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 43
How About Them Tourists? Source: Goodreads.com 44
Strangers Are Kind Again! Resort Corridor Construction Proves It 2017 2018 2019-2023 Total investment $429 MIL $1.3 BIL $12.4 BIL Additional convention space 151,100 sf 572,000 sf 1,236,882 sf Additional hotel rooms (5) 1,194 7,260 Additional new properties 3 4 9 Source: Convention Authority 45
Robot Strippers… Imagine Next Year’s Numbers! Source : Giphy.com 46
Retail Sales Are Growing Steadily 12MMA Taxable Retail Sales & Yrly. Pct. Change: 10/2007-10/2017 In Billions Clark County $3.5 25% 20% CC Taxable Sales YOY Chg. $3.44B 15% $3.0 10% 5% 3.8% $2.5 0% -5% -10% $2.0 -15% -20% $1.5 -25% Source: Nevada Department of Taxation 47
Weed Money… Like… Whoa • 15% Wholesale Excise Tax (Recreational & Medical) • 10% Retail Excise Tax (Recreational Only) • Plus Sales Taxes & Licensing Fees Source: Giphy.com 48
Holy Smokes! Adult-Use MJ’s Glowing Green Start: Excise Taxes Alone Ballpark Nevada MJ Excise Tax, Only: 7/2017-10/2017 $7 Wholesale Excise @ 15% $19.1M: 4-Month $6 Tax Revenue (Millions) Total Retail Excise @ 10% $5 $4 $3.8 $2.8 $3.4 $3 $2.7 $2 $2.0 $1 $1.9 $1.5 $1.0 $0 Note: State Marijuana Retail Excise Tax (10% Rate - Recreational); State Marijuana Wholesale Excise Tax (15% Rate - Recreational and Medical). Source: Nevada Department of Taxation 49
Real Wages Growing (Real Slow) 12MMA Average Weekly Earnings: 11/2008-11/2017 Las Vegas MSA $800 $779 $750 Nominal Avg. Weekly Earnings $700 $650 $669 $600 Inflation-Adjusted (2007$) Avg. Weekly Earnings $550 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 50
Why The Sluggish Wage Recovery? • Doing More With Less Post-Recession • Automation • Gig Economy & Contractors Source: Giphy.com 51
Full-Time Ahead! Las Vegas Hours Catching Up 12MMA Avg. Weekly Hours Worked: 11/2009-11/2017, US, NV & Las Vegas MSA 37 US Nevada 36 Las Vegas MSA 35 34.4 34.1 34 33.9 33 32 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 52
The Housing Market Source: Giphy.com 53
Resales Still Recovering: New Homes Too Hot? 12MMA Median Home Price: 12/2007-12/2017 Las Vegas MSA $400,000 $343,588 $350,000 $300,000 Blended: $241,284 $250,000 $200,000 $225,900 $150,000 Existing Homes $100,000 New Homes $50,000 Weighted Price (New & Resale) $0 Source: Home Builders Research 54
New Home Sales Flat Prices Matter! 12MMA Home Sales: 12/2007-12/2017 Las Vegas MSA 7,000 Existing Homes 6,000 New Homes 4,930 5,000 Total Homes (New & Resale) 4,000 4,163 3,000 2,000 767 1,000 0 Source: Home Builders Research 55
Renting On The Rise 4-QMA Apartment Market Vacancy: Q3/07-Q3/17 Las Vegas MSA 12% 11% 10% 9% Q3 '17 LV: 7.5% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Source: Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies-UNLV 56
Almost Done. Stay Strong. Source: Gify.com 57
And The Commercial Markets? Source: Giphy.com 58
Vacancy: Dropping & Steady As She Goes 4-QMA Commercial Market Vacancy: Q3/07-Q3/17 Las Vegas MSA 30% Industrial Spec Office Anchored Retail 25% 19.5% 20% 15% 10.4% 10% 5.5% 5% 0% Source: RCG Economics 59
How Big Will Automation Be? 65% Source : Futurism 60
Diversification Progress Want Strong Growth When LQ < 1 Location Quotient Industry Sector % Chng. (2007-2017) (2017) Total All Industries 23% Education & Health Services 0.6 21% Other Services 0.8 8% Information 0.6 7% Professional & Business Services 1.0 5% Government 0.7 1% Financial Activities 0.9 1% Trade, Transportation & Utilities 0.9 1% Natural Resources & Mining 0.1 -5% Manufacturing 0.3 -12% Leisure & Hospitality 2.7 -26% Construction 1.4 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 61
White Collar Growth Blue Collar…Not So Much 100% 10.1% 10.9% 10.8% Government 90% 2.7% 2.8% 3.3% Other Services 80% Leisure & Hospitality 29.3% 28.8% 32.5% 70% Education & Health Services 60% Professional & Business Services 6.9% 9.9% 5.8% 50% Financial Activities 12.3% 10.5% 40% 14.5% 5.7% Information 5.2% 1.2% 1.6% 5.1% 30% 1.1% Trade, Transportation & Utilities 17.3% 17.8% 20% 17.4% Manufacturing 3.1% 2.8% 10% 2.3% Construction 10.6% 10.7% 6.9% 0% Natural Resources & Mining 1997 2007 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 62
#Winning 63 Source: Ethan Miller / Getty
ü Pro Sports ü Tax Cuts ü Tourism Investments ü Roads & Public Works ü Kind Strangers ü Happier Residents ü Real Estate Back Source: Imgflip.com 64
Subscribe to our Friday Fact Pack theStatPack.com On Twitter: @theStatPack 65
66
Recommend
More recommend
