P REVIEW 2018 the STAT PACK Live is presented by theStatPack.com 1 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

PREVIEW 2018

the STAT PACK Live is presented by

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theStatPack.com

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What Did

2017

Give Us?

Source: Pinterest (cropped)

Global Stock Markets Up (2017)

Source: Bloomberg

China +54% India +39% Germany +28% Japan +24% Great Britain +22% U.S. S&P 500 +22%

Source: mccarran.com

Robust Global Markets = International Visitors

Global Growth Helps Las Vegas 42.2 million visitors (2017) $129.45 average room rate (+2.8%)

Source: LVCVA

Low U.S. Unemployment

Modestly Higher Interest Rates

In 2017, the price of single family homes in Southern Nevada

rose by 16%

(Source: Home Builders Research)

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Source: iStock.com

Record High Consumer Net Worth

Source: Bloomberg

But can this continue?

Source: http://entertainment.ie

Is an 8-year expansion normal…?

Source: https://za.pinterest.com/pin/510947520208083891/

Ex Extra Inning a Innings? s? Re Really?

Need Source

Extra

Innings…?

Really?

Source: www.hlntv.com

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High CEO Confidence

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

CEO Confidence Index

Source: Bloomberg

Conference Board CEO Confidence Index

Even Higher Small Business Confidence

80 85 90 95 100 105 110 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Small Business Confidence

Source: Bloomberg

Small Business Optimism Index

Really High Consumer Confidence

Source: https://nous.my/win-game-life/

quickmeme.com

Tax Reform Adds Octane

Source: iStock.com

Percentage Real GDP Growth Last year we said…

And now…?

Reasons Why It Can Continue

Tax reform helps US markets Global economic recovery helps Europe and Asia Slow pace of interest rate hikes isn’t scaring anyone yet Accelerating GDP growth

What Could Possibly Interrupt This Love-fest?

Source: http://www.xxlmag.com/news/2017/09/kanye-west-taylor-swift-mtv-vmas-speech/

Inflation Comes Back

Inflation Returns

Source: http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/15/news/louise-linton-steven-mnuchin-dollar-bills-treasury/index.html

High Leverage Leads to Asset Bubbles

Source: iStock.com

New Fed Chair Overreacts

New Fed Chair Overreacts

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-chair-jerome- powell-trump-pick-for-yellen-replacement-2017-11

Trade War

• r

NAFTA Withdrawal

Source: https://www.pinterest.com/pin/459437599463745929/

Oil Shock

Source: https://www.pinterest.com/pin/531495193496153584/

Oil Shock

Source: http://www.personal.psu.edu/afr3/blogs/siowfa12/2012/11/the-gas-shortage.html

China Hard Landing

Image source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3742489/Track-field-events-hold- torrential-downpour-hits-Olympic-stadium-pole-vault-discus-hurdles-place.html

Recap: What Could Interrupt This?

Inflation Comes Back High Leverage Leads to Asset Bubbles New Fed Chair Over Reacts Trade War/NAFTA Withdrawal Korean Peninsula Conflict Oil Shock China Hard Landing

Live Long and Prosper

Source: https://www.ebay.com › ... › Wardrobe › Reproductions

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Source: Imgflip.com

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“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”

—The late Ezra Solomon, economist & professor of

economics at Stanford University

Fortune Telling Is My Thing

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The Job Market: We’re Back

Source: Giphy.com

56,000 Jobs Above 2007 Peak

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• 15%
• 10%
• 5%

0% 5% 10% 15%

12MMA Job Growth & Headline Unemp. Rate: 11/2007-11/2017, Las Vegas MSA

Job Growth

• Unemp. Rate

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

+3.0% 5.1%

How About One of So. NV’s Favorite Industries?

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Source: Imgflip.com

Construction Jobs Below Peak But Steadily Building

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20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000

12MMA YoY Construction Jobs: 11/2007-11/2017 Nevada & Las Vegas MSA

Nevada Las Vegas MSA

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

84,417 62,775

How About Them Tourists?

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Source: Goodreads.com

Strangers Are Kind Again! Resort Corridor Construction Proves It

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2017 2018 2019-2023

Total investment $429 MIL $1.3 BIL $12.4 BIL Additional convention space 151,100 sf 572,000 sf 1,236,882 sf Additional hotel rooms (5) 1,194 7,260 Additional new properties 3 4 9

Source: Convention Authority

Robot Strippers… Imagine Next Year’s Numbers!

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Source: Giphy.com

Retail Sales Are Growing Steadily

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• 25%
• 20%
• 15%
• 10%
• 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 $3.5 In Billions

12MMA Taxable Retail Sales & Yrly. Pct. Change: 10/2007-10/2017 Clark County

CC Taxable Sales YOY Chg.

Source: Nevada Department of Taxation

$3.44B 3.8%

Weed Money… Like… Whoa

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• 15% Wholesale Excise Tax

(Recreational & Medical)

• 10% Retail Excise Tax

(Recreational Only)

• Plus Sales Taxes &

Licensing Fees

Source: Giphy.com

Holy Smokes! Adult-Use MJ’s Glowing Green Start: Excise Taxes Alone

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$1.0 $1.5 $1.9 $2.0 $2.7 $3.4 $2.8 $3.8 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 Tax Revenue (Millions)

Ballpark Nevada MJ Excise Tax, Only: 7/2017-10/2017

Wholesale Excise @ 15% Retail Excise @ 10%

Note: State Marijuana Retail Excise Tax (10% Rate - Recreational); State Marijuana Wholesale Excise Tax (15% Rate - Recreational and Medical). Source: Nevada Department of Taxation

$19.1M: 4-Month Total

Real Wages Growing (Real Slow)

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$550 $600 $650 $700 $750 $800

12MMA Average Weekly Earnings: 11/2008-11/2017 Las Vegas MSA

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

$779 Nominal Avg. Weekly Earnings Inflation-Adjusted (2007$) Avg. Weekly Earnings $669

Why The Sluggish Wage Recovery?

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• Doing More With Less

Post-Recession

• Automation
• Gig Economy &

Contractors

Source: Giphy.com

Full-Time Ahead! Las Vegas Hours Catching Up

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32 33 34 35 36 37

12MMA Avg. Weekly Hours Worked: 11/2009-11/2017, US, NV & Las Vegas MSA

US Nevada Las Vegas MSA

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

34.4 33.9 34.1

The Housing Market

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Source: Giphy.com

Resales Still Recovering: New Homes Too Hot?

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$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000

12MMA Median Home Price: 12/2007-12/2017 Las Vegas MSA

Existing Homes New Homes Weighted Price (New & Resale)

Source: Home Builders Research

$343,588 $225,900 Blended: $241,284

New Home Sales Flat Prices Matter!

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1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 12MMA Home Sales: 12/2007-12/2017 Las Vegas MSA

Existing Homes New Homes Total Homes (New & Resale)

Source: Home Builders Research

4,930 4,163 767

Renting On The Rise

4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12%

4-QMA Apartment Market Vacancy: Q3/07-Q3/17 Las Vegas MSA

Source: Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies-UNLV

Q3 '17 LV: 7.5%

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Source: Gify.com

Almost Done. Stay Strong.

And The Commercial Markets?

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Source: Giphy.com

Vacancy: Dropping & Steady As She Goes

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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

4-QMA Commercial Market Vacancy: Q3/07-Q3/17 Las Vegas MSA

Industrial Spec Office Anchored Retail

Source: RCG Economics

19.5% 5.5% 10.4%

How Big Will Automation Be?

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65%

Source: Futurism

Diversification Progress Want Strong Growth When LQ < 1

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Industry Sector Location Quotient (2017) % Chng. (2007-2017)

Total All Industries Education & Health Services 0.6 23% Other Services 0.8 21% Information 0.6 8% Professional & Business Services 1.0 7% Government 0.7 5% Financial Activities 0.9 1% Trade, Transportation & Utilities 0.9 1% Natural Resources & Mining 0.1 1% Manufacturing 0.3

• 5%

Leisure & Hospitality 2.7

• 12%

Construction 1.4

• 26%

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

White Collar Growth Blue Collar…Not So Much

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10.6% 10.7% 6.9% 3.1% 2.8% 2.3% 17.3% 17.8% 17.4%

1.6% 1.2% 1.1%

5.7% 5.2% 5.1% 10.5% 12.3% 14.5% 5.8% 6.9% 9.9% 32.5% 29.3% 28.8% 2.7% 2.8% 3.3% 10.1% 10.9% 10.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1997 2007 2017 Government Other Services Leisure & Hospitality Education & Health Services Professional & Business Services Financial Activities Information Trade, Transportation & Utilities Manufacturing Construction Natural Resources & Mining

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

#Winning

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Source: Ethan Miller / Getty

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Source: Imgflip.com

ü Pro Sports ü Tax Cuts ü Tourism Investments ü Roads & Public Works ü Kind Strangers ü Happier Residents ü Real Estate Back

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