5-Year Review OCP Monitoring Program 5 Year Review Annual Review - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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5-Year Review OCP Monitoring Program 5 Year Review Annual Review - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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OFFICIAL COMMUNITY PLAN 5-Year Review OCP Monitoring Program 5 Year Review Annual Review Five Year Review Snapshot of progress Trends and forecasts 17 annual indicators Identification of policy implications for

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OFFICIAL COMMUNITY PLAN

5-Year Review

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

OCP Monitoring Program

Annual Review

  • Snapshot of progress
  • 17 annual indicators

Five Year Review

  • Trends and forecasts
  • Identification of policy

implications for inclusion in future work plans

5

Year Review

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Population and Demographics

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Source: Statistics Canada, Annual Demographic Statistics, Urban Futures

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Source: Statistics Canada, Annual Demographic Statistics, Urban Futures

2018 Population Forecast, Capital Regional District

464,547

2009 Forecast - 394,569 (Urban Futures)

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

101,242 86,130 66,303 1.5%

  • 0.2%

1.2% 1.5%

2018 Population Forecast, City of Victoria

2009 Forecast – 86,753 (Urban Futures)

Source: Statistics Canada, City of Victoria, Urban Futures

0.5%

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

2016 1991

Source: Statistics Canada

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

2016

City of Victoria Victoria CMA

Source: Statistics Canada

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Source: Statistics Canada

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

net gain net gain net gain

Source: Statistics Canada

net loss net loss (deaths)

net loss

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Source: Statistics Canada

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Housing

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Housing Unit Demand Forecast 2017-2041

38,197 26,380 11,818 37,413 27,524 9,889 8,367 1,466 6,901

Urban Futures Forecast (Regional) 2017 – 2041 (Adj) CRD Housing Forecast (Regional) 2016-2041 (Adj.) CRD Housing Forecast (City

  • f Victoria) 2017-2041 (Adj.)

Source: Urban Futures, CRD

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Source: City of Victoria

Neighbourhood Growth

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Growth in Target Areas, 2017

Source: City of Victoria

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Growth in Target Areas 2012-2017

Exceeding targets Below targets Exceeding targets

Source: City of Victoria

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Source: Statistics Canada

Housing Growth 2011-2016

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

491

average

Source: CMHC

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Source: CMHC

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Source: CMHC

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Source: Statistics Canada

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Source: Statistics Canada

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Source: Statistics Canada

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Source: Statistics Canada

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Transportation and Mobility

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Source: Statistics Canada

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

18,840 4,365 1,725 1,635 1,970 1,045 3,245 3,165

Source: Statistics Canada

62,910 places of work 24,120 people live & work 38,790 in commuters

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

7,070 1,360 1,150 40 270 690 590 740

Source: Statistics Canada

37,950 people who work 24,120 people live & work 13,830 OUT commuters

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

CRD Origin and destination survey 2017

40.0% 34.0% 9.0% 8.0% 6.0% 7.0% 5.0% 9.0% 39.0% 41.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2011 2017 Driver Passenger in Vehicle Transit Riders Cyclists Pedestrians Other

Travel within Victoria Increasing use of transit, walking and cycling for all trips within Victoria between 2011 (50%) and 2017 (57%)

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Employment

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Vacancy Rates

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Source: Statistics Canada

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

  • 35% (-95)

11% (210)

  • 18% (-295)

19% (260) 9% (770)

  • 12% (-590)

7% (615)

  • 4% (-675)

16% (1,225) 5% (210)

  • 4% (-480)

Change 2011-16

Source: Statistics Canada *Worked at home or at a usual place outside the home

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Policy Considerations

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Policy Considerations

Victoria population growing as anticipated

 2009 projection indicated growth by ~20,000 people to 101,142 by 2041  Actual growth aligned with projection 2017 population 86,130

  • vs. projection of 86,753

 Reaffirms OCP growth targets

OCP policies are proving effective

 Exceeding targets for regional share of new housing  Exceeding growth targets for core area growth

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Policy Considerations (continued)

Lower share of housing developed in and near town centres and villages:

 Downtown Core Area experiences largest share of development  Informs and being addressed through neighbourhood planning  Consider additional ways to facilitate housing supply and diversity to support life stages and commercial vitality

Connection between demographic growth and housing

 Suggests further analysis to support family and seniors housing

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Policy Considerations (continued)

Increased need and demand for rental housing

 Significant increase in rental housing construction experienced in 2015-2017  Continued demand and low vacancy indicates potential need to support rental housing going forward

Majority of Victoria residents (65%) work in Victoria

 Consider additional ways to facilitate workforce housing  Creates opportunities to meet sustainable mobility goals

Modest employment growth overall

 Reaffirms importance of protecting employment lands  Continue and enhance initiatives to remove barriers for economic development (Business Hub, zoning initiatives)

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Recommendations

That Council:

  • 1. Receive the following for information and direct staff to

communicate the findings and highlights to the public:

a) OCP Annual Review 2017 b) City of Victoria 2017 Housing Report c) OCP Annual Review 2016 d) City of Victoria 2016 Housing Report

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OCP 5-Year Review Changing People, Changing Places

Recommendations (continued)

That Council:

  • 2. Consider the data and trends highlighted in the OCP

5-Year Review to inform future policy initiatives and priorities.

  • 3. Direct staff to report back with the second annual

review of the Victoria Housing Strategy at a Council workshop in November 2018 to summarize progress

  • n action items and establish new actions for an

updated strategy.