CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER 2016 2016
Market Survey and Trends New CSP Market Segments Assessment Local Manufacturing Potential
P OWER 2016 2016 Market Survey and Trends New CSP Market Segments - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
C ONCENTRATED S OLAR P OWER 2016 2016 Market Survey and Trends New CSP Market Segments Assessment Local Manufacturing Potential Market Survey and Trends 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 2 L IF IFE NEEDS ENERGY Geothermal Gravity Sun
Market Survey and Trends New CSP Market Segments Assessment Local Manufacturing Potential
2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 2
jservert@sta-solar.com
Sun energy creates: wind, waves, biomass, oil, coal, hydro. Gravity Nuclear Sun Geothermal
Biomass Wind Oil, Gas, Coal Waves Sun hydro
Reliable, Clean, Safe, Secure, Affordable
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concentrate solar DNI and generate electricity via thermodynamic cycle
ill-suited for TES,
ELECTRIC HYBRIDIZATION CSP+PV CSP+WIND THERMAL HYBRIDIZATION CSP+BIOMASS CSP+GEOTHERMAL
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TES PV CSP Steam Turbine
ELECTRICAL GENERATION
TES CSP Steam Turbine
ELECTRICAL GENERATION
Wind Turbine Biomass Boiler CSP Steam Turbine
ELECTRICAL GENERATION
GEOTHERMAL CSP Steam Turbine
ELECTRICAL GENERATION
LOW SOLAR SHARE Solar-aided power gen. (SAPG) Integrated Solar CC (ISCC) HIGH SOLAR SHARE Decoupled Solar CC (DSCC) DSCC with PV
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Coal / Fuel / Boiler CSP Steam Turbine
ELECTRICAL GENERATION
Gas Turbine HRSG CSP Steam Turbine
ELECTRICAL GENERATION
Gas Turbine TES CSP Steam Turbine
ELECTRICAL GENERATION
Gas Turbine TES CSP Steam Turbine
ELECTRICAL GENERATION
PV
Trend in Technology choice
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PT 79% HY 3% CT 12% DS 0% LF 6%
Technology choice, actual
PT HY CT DS LF
force in the region
Paris Agreements, most have submitted INDCs
2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 8 Country Implementation Period GHG Target Type Greenhouse gas emission Cost of implementation Algeria 2021-2030 Baseline scenario target 7-22% by 2030 Egypt 2015-2030 Not applicable USD 73 million Jordan 2013-2020 Baseline scenario target 1,5% by 2030 compared to BAU Morocco
target 32% by 2030 compared to BAU Tunisia 2015-2030 Intensity Target 7t CO2 per capita in 2010, target in 2030: 3,4t CO2per
USD 45 billion Libya Not submitted Saudi Arabia 2021-2030 130 million tons of CO2eq avoided annually by 2030 Kuwait Actions only Oman 2020-2030 Fixed Level Target GHG emissions growth by 2% UAE Not applicable
Technology Focus
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Technology PT LF DS CT Typical size (MW) 10 – 280 1 – 125 1 10 – 135 Concentration Factor 70 – 80 25 – 100 600 – 4000 600 – 1200 Capacity Factor (%) 30 – 50 20 – 30 20 – 30 40 – 70 Operation Temperature (ºC) 293 – 393 140 – 275 250 – 700 290 – 565 Solar Electric perf. (%) 16 – 18 9 – 11 12 – 25 16 – 20 Installed worldwide (MW) 4,336 319 3 689 Use of land (MWh/(ha·year)) 600 – 1,000 600 – 1,000 400 – 800 400 – 800 Maturity Commercial Commercial Demo Commercial Reflector
Parabolic mirror Flat/curved mirror Paraboloid mirror Curved mirror
Receiver
Absorber tube w/ vacuum cover Absorber tube w/ concentrator Stirling engine / gas turbine External / Cavity
HTF
Thermal oil Saturated steam Air Molten salt / Water-steam
TES
Molten salts, indirect Steam accumulator N/A Molten salts, direct / steam accumulator
TES capacity
4 – 12 hours < 1 hour N/A 6 – 14 / < 1 hours
Hybridization capable
Yes, existing Yes Unlikely Yes
cheaper than CSP; it is also more modular and easy to design, construct, maintain and operate
install and to run, which gives CSP a competitive
makes more sense with CSP
reducing emissions while providing track record to CSP, and time to amortize plants in operation
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2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 32 Note: Values in USD/MWh (2016). WACC = 8%, 25 year technical life for solar (PV-CSP)
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
LCOE Range for Different Technologies
much as they need, where and when it is needed
transmission lines (where) and backup (when)
especially if hybridized
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penetration of PV/wind is possible but it has a limit
ensure grid stability
medium/long term demand (economic & population growth) and generation (emission targets, system costs, impact of RE in wholesale market)
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Methodology and Scenarios
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expectations for CSP deployment were much higher than the current situation: most long- term forecasts and country plans have not been fulfilled
cross-checked with cost projections
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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 Installed Capacity, GW BAU-reference STE-GO2016 GP-IEA ID-optim ID-reference RD-reference RD-pessim
Scenarios: BAU: business as usual ID: increased deployment RD: reduced deployment STE-GO: Solar Thermal Electricity Global Outlook 2016 GP-IEA: Greenpeace-IEA
2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 37 Scenarios: BAU: business as usual STE-GO: Solar Thermal Electricity Global Outlook 2016 GP-IEA: Greenpeace-IEA
Scenario considering plants identified in the pipeline worldwide, up to 2025
Constant growth after 2025 ± 20% region for optimistic- pessimistic expectations
assumptions, deployment is moderate
Europe is realized (DESERTEC or similar) it can be a total game-changer
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2016 2020 2025 2030 Installed Capacity, GW Algeria Egypt Jordan Kuwait Libya Morocco Saudi Arabia Tunisia UAE EXPORT MENA countries MENA pessimistic MENA optimistic
History and Forecast
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Tower Parabolic Trough
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55% 15% 30% Investment cost O&M cost Financial cost 59% 13% 28% Investment cost O&M cost Financial cost
etc.) and project development (studies, permitting, etc.)
conventional, risk concentrated on operation)
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𝐷𝑧𝑓𝑏𝑠
𝑗
= 𝐷0
𝑗 · 𝑄 𝑧𝑓𝑏𝑠 𝑗
𝑄
𝑗 log2 𝑄𝑆𝑗
· 𝐿𝑇 −𝑐𝑗
𝐷𝑡𝑗𝑨𝑓 𝑝𝑔 𝑢ℎ𝑓 𝑞𝑝𝑥𝑓𝑠 𝑞𝑚𝑏𝑜𝑢
𝑗
= 𝐷0
𝑗 · 𝑄𝑡𝑗𝑨𝑓 𝑗
𝑄
𝑗 𝑂
with historical data of whole plant costs
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good correlation (r>90%) average is well represented
(RMSD≈40%), large plant-to-plant variation
≈8%)
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𝐷𝑗 correlates with one metric 𝑄𝑗
cost for:
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Recomercialization
𝐷𝑗 correlates with one metric 𝑄𝑗
the cost for:
Values were corrected for the different operation temperature in CT and PT
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𝐷𝑗 correlates with one metric 𝑄𝑗
cost for:
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Results
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Tower Parabolic
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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Structure &… Receiver_Tower EPC cost_Tower Storage system Owner's… Mirror Erection and civil BoP Power block 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Structure &… Storage system HTF system Receiver_PT EPC cost_PT Mirror Owner's cost_PT HFT fluid Erection and civil BoP Power block
Both Hard and Soft costs have a significant potential impact
Uncertainty in projections is significant; values are provided to illustrate expected trends only, discretion is advised
Tower Parabolic
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50 100 150 200 250 300 USD/MWh 50 100 150 200 250 300 USD/MWh Upper uncertainty limit LCOE PT Spain (Moron) LCOE PT USA (Dagget) LCOE PT Tunisia (Akarit) LCOE PT KSA (Duba 1) LCOE PT Algeria (Hassi R'mel) LCOE PT Egypt (Kuraymat) LCOE PT Morocco (Ouarzazate) LCOE PT Libya (Tazirbu) LCOE PT Jordan (WECSP) Lower uncertainty limit
Uncertainty in projections is significant; values are provided to illustrate expected trends only, discretion is advised
Challenges and Key players
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Cost reduction
Soft cost reduction is not in typical R&D programs
Other approaches
value
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250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Annual Investment (Million USD/year) CHINA+INDIA MENA COUNTRIES AUSTRALIA USA EU R&D PROGRAMS EUROPEAN COUNTRIES AGGREGATED PUBLIC R&D INVESTMENT
Aggregated Investment (Million USD)
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500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Annual Investment (Million USD/year) TOTAL PUBLIC R&D TOTAL CORPORATE R&D AGGREGATED R&D INVESTMENT
Aggregated Investment (Million USD)
Some key aspects are not included in “typical” R&D
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and Recommendations
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were higher than the current situation: most long-term forecasts and country plans have not been fulfilled.
alternative (so some efforts were moved from CSP to PV);
cost reduction would bring CSP’s LCOE closer to grid parity;
sector risked entering a vicious circle as a slower deployment further slowed cost reduction.
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ability to provide value to the electric system in comparison with other alternatives.
throughs, are:
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and soft costs, but some chapters (civil works, power block, BoP, EPC cost and Owner’s cost) have barely improved despite its significant impact
(synergies, alternative applications) can improve CSP’s competitiveness
would help it compete in equal terms with PV, wind
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emissions while providing track record to CSP, and time to amortize plants in operation
especially if hybridized
balance between both, diluting them
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same technology implementation pattern: first CSP power plants used PT technology in the Solar Field (ISCCs, Shams), but are already considering the development of solar tower projects.
CTF funds to minimize financing costs, reducing the final energy prices. Risk allocation will be crucial as well as reducing the uncertainty in countries accessing concessional financing.
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system in the MENA countries, providing advantages when compared with intermittent renewable energies with chemical back-up or conventional back-up capacity
through the development of concepts as DESERTEC, contributing to support the future development of CSP
transnational market opens possibilities for developers and off takers, adding flexibility and increasing competition
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learned during the development of CSP technology and become relevant players of the industry.
can become a reality if several key conditions are fulfilled:
Europe
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New CSP Market Segments Assessment
Technology – Process Integration CSP CSP vs Business as Usual (BAU). Today Future Trends CSP Deployment Investment required and cost savings Emission Savings (COP21)
Solar Field (SF) Thermal Energy Storage (TES) Heat Transfer Fluid (HTF) System Power Block (PB)
HOT COLD
Depending on the application, TES or hybrid configurations may be needed, due to economic and security of supply reasons.
Depending on the application, TES or hybrid configurations may be needed, due to economic and security of supply reasons.
Solar Field (SF) Thermal Energy Storage (TES) Heat Transfer Fluid (HTF) System
HOT COLD
Oil Production Oil Refineries Chemicals Manufacturing Water Heating Agriculture Mining
Data obtained as a mean value of Fuel Prices included in “BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2016”. Available on-line at: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2016/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2016-full-report.pdf
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Dimensionless evolution of fuel costs (Ref 2015 prices)
Natural Gas Oil
VS BAU LCOE (2
Fuel cost uncertainty ranges defined according to the Mean Cost Variance of the fuel during the 2000-2015 period, defined as: 𝑊𝑏𝑠 ത 𝑌 = 1 𝑜 · 𝑇𝑌 ത 𝑌 CSP cost uncertainty defined as Max CSP LCOE value +20% and Min CSP LCOE value – 20% LCOE cost for auxiliary fuels only considers fuel costs (96% of total costs)
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
LCOE (USD/MWh_th)
Uncertainty range MEAN LCOE CSP Lower uncertainty limit CSP LCOE Upper uncertainty limit CSP LCOE NATURAL GAS MAX NATURAL GAS MEAN NATURAL GAS MIN FUELOIL MAX FUELOIL MEAN FUELOIL MIN
FUEL-OIL CSP NATURAL GAS
Water Heating (Natural Gas); 86 Water Tratment and Conditioning; 5
Agriculture; 11
Biogas Production; 6 Natural Gas Transport Grid; 4
Mining; 6
Drying; 12 Solar Heating and cooling; 10
Solar Ice; 4 Oil Extraction (EOR); 316 Oil Refining; 102 Chemicals Manufacturing (Natural Gas); 22
Solar Cooking ; 4 Desalination MED; 12
Water Heating (Fuel); 43 Chemicals Manufacturing (Fuel); 2
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
100 200 300 400 500 600 Difference between BAU and CSP LCOE in 2016 (USD/MWh-th) Temperature (ºC)
Application Country Project Installed Capacity
Agriculture Australia Port Augusta Greenhouse 39 MW_th Oil Extraction (EOR) USA Coalinga 29 MW_th Oil Extraction (EOR) Oman PDO Pilot 7 MW_th Oil Extraction (EOR) Oman Miraah 1 GW_th Mining Chile El Tesoro 10 MW_th
CSP Ready CSP Potential
(Greenhouses)
Manufacturing (Saturated Steam)
INSTALLED PER YE YEAR
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Annual Investment (Billion USD/year) Thermal Power Installed (GW_th/year)
Solar Ice Agriculture Mining (MW_th/year) Chemicals Manufacturing (MW_th/year) Water Heating (MW_th/year) Oil Refining (MW_th/year) Oil Extraction (MW_th/year) ANNUAL INVESTMENT (Billion USD/year)
ISSIO ION SAVINGS (2
Only 2017-2030 period is reflected. 2030-2050 period present constant emmission savings as 2030, and decreasing during the last 13 years due to the end of the lifetime of the CSP plants.
2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 15,000 17,500 20,000 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Aggregated Emission Savings (Mill Tonnes CO2) Annual Emission Savings (Mill Tonnes CO2/year) Oil Extraction (Annual) Oil Refining (Annual) Water Heating (Annual) Mining (Annual) Chemicals Manufacturing (Annual) Solar Ice (Annual) Agriculture (Annual) Aggregated Emission Savings (Total)
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