Outcome Analysis Presentation Nigeria February 2019
Livelihood Zone Map Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 7
Previous Livelihood zone Map Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 8
Areas covered under the previous Livelihood zone Map Millet & Sesame Zone (MAS) Sorghum, Cowpea & Groundnut (MCG) Cotton, Groundnut & Cereals (CGC ) Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 9
Areas covered under the Livelihood zone Map Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 10
Livelihood Zone and Areas Covered Livelihood Zones States LGA Millet & Sesame LZ (MAS) Katsina Baure, Daura, Dutsi, Sandamu, Mashi & Zango Cotton Groundnut & Cowpea LZ (CGC) Zamfara Bungudu, Gusau, Maru & Tsafe Sorghum Cowpeas & Groundnut LZ Zamfara Anka, Bukkuyum & Gumi (SCG) Northern Floodplain Irrigated Rice Jigawa Auyo, Guri, Hadejia, Kafin Hausa, Kaugama, Kiri Kassama, Wheat & Vegetables LZ (NG11) Miga, Malam Madori Sahel Mixed Cereals & Livestock LZ Jigawa Babura, Birniwa, Dutse, Dagarawa, Garki, Gwiwa, Gumel, (NG13) Jahun, Kazaure, Kiyawa, Maigatari, Malam Madori, Ringim, Roni, Sule Tankarkar, Taura, Yankwashi Millet Cowpeas & Sesame LZ (MCS) Bauchi Misau, Katagum, Gaide, Gamawa, Darazo & Damban Maize Sorghum & Cotton LZ (MSC) Bauchi Alkaleri, Bogoro, Dass, Gamjuwa, Ningi, Toro & Tafawa Balewa North Central Maize Sorghum & Cotton Borno Abadam,Askira Uba, Biu, Chibok, Hawul, Kwaya Kusar, LZ (NG10) Mobbar, Shani Northeast Millet Cowpea & Sesame Borno Bama, Damboa, Dikwa, Gubio, Gwoza, Jere, Kaga, Kalabalge, Konduga, Mafa, Magumeri, Marte, Maiduguri, Monguno, Ngala Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 11
Data sources Key Parameter Source Crop Production Agricultural Development Programme (ADP)- Ministry of Agriculture Market Price Agricultural Development Programme (ADP)- Ministry of Agriculture Livestock Production Village Key informants/ Consensus among workshop participants Other Income Sources (Price) Key Informants Other Income Sources (Access) Key informants/ Consensus among workshop participants Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 12
Analysis Team Composition The analysis team comprised of members from: • NEMA • NAERLS- National Agric. Extension & Research Liaison Services • Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development • State Ministry of Agriculture • National Bureau of Statistics • Representatives of ADP from States • Zamfara State Min of Budget and Economic planning • National Programme for Food Security • Save the Children • Majesty Community Rural Development Foundation Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 13
Result Summary The period or consumption year covered by the current analysis is September 2018 – August 2019 for the seven livelihood zones but across 5 states as projected. The analysis shows that the very poor households in CGC and SCG livelihood zone would likely face a livelihood protection deficit (LPD) of 24% & 4% respectively with the very poor in CGC LZ also facing a LPD of 19%. Borno State, comprising NG10 and NG12 was analysed by LGA following the level of insecurity within the state and the result shows that in Abadam & Mobbar LGA (NG10), the very poor and poor HHs would likely face a LPD of 8% and 2% respectively. In Bama, Damboa, Dikwa & Gwoza (NG12) the very poor would likely face a survival deficit (SD) of 1% and LPD of 16%. In Kala Balge & Ngala LGA (NG12) the analysis shows that the very poor HHs would likely face a SD of 5% and LPD of 16%. Other LGAs and LZs are not expected to face any deficit within the consumption year. Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 14
Result Summary Households facing survival deficit are unable to meet their daily food needs and would require external assistance to meet their food needs during the deficit period, while households facing livelihood protection deficit would require external assistance to meet their livelihood needs, this will also prevent the use high cost coping mechanism. Households not facing deficits would be able to access both food and cash income required to meet their normal food and non food needs within the projected period. Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 15
OA Result Summary LP Deficit LZ description Baseline State LGAs Population Wealth Groups % Population Timing of Deficit Survival Deficit (%Kcal) VP 34% No deficit No deficit No deficit Millet & Sesame LZ P 32% No deficit No deficit No deficit Sept09-Aug10 Katsina Baure, Daura, Dutsi, Mashi, Zango & Sandamu 1,384,505 (MAS) M 19% No deficit No deficit No deficit BO 16% No deficit No deficit No deficit VP 26% Jul-Aug, 2019 No deficit 24% NW Cotton, P 26% Jul-Aug, 2019 No deficit 19% Groundnuts & mixed Sept11-Aug12 Bungudu, Gusau, Maru & Tsafe 1,643,736 Zamfara M 26% No deficit No deficit No deficit Cereals LZ (CGC) BO 22% No deficit No deficit No deficit VP 33% Aug, 2019 No deficit 4% Sorghum Cowpea and 20% No deficit P No deficit No deficit Zamfara Sept12-Aug13 Anka, Bukkuyum & Gumi 774,696 Groundnut LZ (SCG) 23% No deficit M No deficit No deficit 24% No deficit BO No deficit No deficit VP 30% No deficit No deficit No deficit Maize, Sorghum and Alkaleri, Bogoro, Dass, Gamjuwa, Ningi, Toro & P 26% No deficit No deficit No deficit 2012-13 Bauchi 2,314,062 Cotton LZ (MSC) Tafawa Balewa M 23% No deficit No deficit No deficit BO 21% No deficit No deficit No deficit VP 27% No deficit No deficit No deficit Millet, Cowpeas and Misau, Katagum, Gaide, Gamawa, Darazo & P 29% No deficit No deficit No deficit 2012-13 1,861,703 Sesame LZ (MCS) Damban M 25% No deficit No deficit No deficit Bauchi BO 18% No deficit No deficit No deficit Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 16
OA Result Summary VP 28% No deficit No deficit No deficit Northern Floodplains Auyo, Guri, Hadejia, Kafin Hausa, Kaugama, P 26% No deficit No deficit No deficit Irrigated Rice Wheat Sept16-Aug17 1,860,927 Kirikasama, Miga, Malam Madori M 29% No deficit No deficit No deficit and Vegetable(NG11) Jigawa BO 18% No deficit No deficit No deficit Babura, Birniwa, Dutse, Dagarawa, Garki, Gwiwa, VP 34% No deficit No deficit No deficit Sahel Mixd Cereals and Gumel, Jahun, Kazaure, Kiyawa, Maigatari, P 29% No deficit No deficit No deficit Sept16-Aug17 3,946,624 Livestock (NG13) Malam Madori, Ringim, Roni, Sule Tankarkar, M 21% No deficit No deficit No deficit Taura, Yankwashi Jigawa BO 16% No deficit No deficit No deficit VP 25% No deficit No deficit No deficit Askira Uba, Biu, Chibok, Hawul, Kwaya Kusar, P 27% No deficit No deficit No deficit 1,734,067 Shani M 25% No deficit No deficit No deficit North Central Maize BO 23% No deficit No deficit No deficit Sorghum and Cotton Borno Sept16-Aug17 VP 25% Aug, 2019 No deficit 8% LZ (NG10) P 27% Aug, 2019 No deficit 2% Abadam & Mobbar 51, 109 M 25% No deficit No deficit No deficit BO 23% No deficit No deficit No deficit No deficit No deficit VP 38% No deficit Jere, Kaga, Konduga, Mafa, Magumeri, MMc & P 26% No deficit No deficit No deficit 3,650,286 Mungono No deficit No deficit M 21% No deficit BO 14% No deficit No deficit No deficit 1% 16% VP 38% Jul-Aug, 2019 Northeast Millet No deficit No deficit P 26% No deficit Bama, Damboa, Dikwa, Gubio & Gwoza 368,381 Cowpea and Sesame Sept16-Aug17 Borno M 21% No deficit No deficit No deficit (NG12) No deficit No deficit BO 14% No deficit 5% 16% VP 38% Jun - Aug, 2019 P 26% No deficit No deficit No deficit Kalabalge, Marte & Ngala 94,016 No deficit No deficit M 21% No deficit BO 14% No deficit No deficit No deficit Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 17
Result- Abadam & Mobbar LGA -Borno NG10 Seasonal Expenditure (Food+Cash) Total Income (food+cash) Total Income (food+cash) District: Abadam District: Abadam District: Abadam Livelihood Zone: NG10 Livelihood Zone: NG10 Livelihood Zone: NG10 Household type: VP Household type: VP Household type: VP 180% 140% 180% 160% 120% 160% 140% 100% % min. food energy needs % minimum food needs 140% % minimum food needs 120% 80% 120% 100% 60% 80% 100% 40% 60% 80% 40% 20% 60% 20% 0% S O N D J F M A M J J A S O 0% 40% ref.year curr.year thresholds milk milk sales 20% total expenditure deficit crops crop sales 0% livestock sales ag. labour ref.year curr.year thresholds non-ag local labour self employment small business gifts/remittances payment in kind 0 survival l/hoods protection wild foods/other food aid employment cash transfer Thresholds survival Threshold total income l/hoods protection Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 18
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