Outcome Analysis Presentation Nigeria October 2018
Livelihood Zone Map Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 7
Previous Livelihood zone Map Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 8
Millet & Sesame Zone (MAS) Sorghum, Cowpea & Groundnut (MCG) Cotton, Groundnut & Cereals (CGC ) Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 9
Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 10
Livelihood Zone and Areas Covered Livelihood Zones States LGA Millet & Sesame LZ (MAS) Katsina Baure, Daura, Dutsi, Sandamu, Mashi & Zango Cotton Groundnut & Cowpea LZ (CGC) Zamfara Bungudu, Gusau, Maru & Tsafe Sorghum Cowpeas & Groundnut LZ Zamfara Anka, Bukkuyum & Gumi (SCG) Northern Floodplain Irrigated Rice Jigawa Auyo, Guri, Hadejia, Kafin Hausa, Kaugama, Kiri Kassama, Wheat & Vegetables LZ (NG11) Miga, Malam Madori Sahel Mixed Cereals & Livestock LZ Jigawa Babura, Birniwa, Dutse, Dagarawa, Garki, Gwiwa, Gumel, (NG13) Jahun, Kazaure, Kiyawa, Maigatari, Malam Madori, Ringim, Roni, Sule Tankarkar, Taura, Yankwashi Millet Cowpeas & Sesame LZ (MCS) Bauchi Misau, Katagum, Gaide, Gamawa, Darazo & Damban Maize Sorghum & Cotton LZ (MSC) Bauchi Alkaleri, Bogoro, Dass, Gamjuwa, Ningi, Toro & Tafawa Balewa North Central Maize Sorghum & Cotton Borno Abadam,Askira Uba, Biu, Chibok, Hawul, Kwaya Kusar, LZ (NG10) Mobbar, Shani Northeast Millet Cowpea & Sesame Borno Bama, Damboa, Dikwa, Gubio, Gwoza, Jere, Kaga, Kalabalge, Konduga, Mafa, Magumeri, Marte, Maiduguri, Monguno, Ngala Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 11
Data sources Key Parameter Source Crop Production Agricultural Development Programme (ADP)- Ministry of Agriculture Market Price Agricultural Development Programme (ADP)- Ministry of Agriculture Livestock Production Village Key informants/ Consensus among workshop participants Other Income Sources (Price) Key Informants Other Income Sources (Access) Key informants/ Consensus among workshop participants Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 12
Analysis Team Composition The analysis team comprised of members from: • NEMA • NAERLS- National Agric. Extension & Research Liaison Services • State Ministry of Agriculture • National Bureau of Statistics • Representatives of ADP from States • Zamfara State Min of Budget and Economic planning • National Programme for Food Security • Save the Children • Majesty Community Rural Development Foundation Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 13
Result Summary The period or consumption year covered by the current analysis is September 2018 – August 2019 for the seven livelihood zones but across 5 states as projected. The analysis shows that the very poor households in MAS, CGC and MCS livelihood zone would likely face a livelihood protection deficit 1%, 8% & 12% respectively with the very poor in MCS LZ also facing a survival deficits of 7%, while the remaining wealth groups across the other LZs are not expected to face any deficit. Households facing survival deficit would not be able to meet their daily food needs and therefore requires urgent support to meet their food needs during the deficit period, while households facing livelihood protection deficit would require support to meet their livelihood needs, this will also prevent the use high cost coping mechanism. While households not facing deficits would be able to access food and cash income to meet their normal food and non food needs within the projected period. Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 14
OA Result Summary Population Wealth % Timing of Survival LP Deficit LZ description Baseline State LGAs Groups Populatio Deficit Deficit (%Kcal) VP 34% Apr- Aug, 2018 No deficit 1% Baure, Daura, Dutsi, Millet & Sesame LZ Sept09- P 32% No deficit No deficit No deficit Katsina Mashi, Zango & 1,351,607 (MAS) Aug10 M 19% No deficit No deficit No deficit Sandamu BO 16% No deficit No deficit No deficit NW Cotton, VP 26% Jul-Aug, 2018 No deficit 8% Groundnuts & Sept11- Bungudu, Gusau, Maru & P 26% No deficit No deficit No deficit Zamfara 1,604,678 mixed Cereals LZ Aug12 Tsafe M 26% No deficit No deficit No deficit (CGC) BO 22% No deficit No deficit No deficit VP 33% No deficit No deficit No deficit Sorghum Cowpea Sept12- P 20% No deficit No deficit No deficit and Groundnut LZ Zamfara Anka, Bukkuyum & Gumi 756,288 Aug13 M 23% No deficit No deficit No deficit (SCG) BO 24% No deficit No deficit No deficit VP 30% No deficit No deficit No deficit Maize, Sorghum Alkaleri, Bogoro, Dass, P 26% No deficit No deficit No deficit and Cotton LZ 2012-13 Bauchi Gamjuwa, Ningi, Toro & 2,259,076 M 23% No deficit No deficit No deficit (MSC) Tafawa Balewa BO 21% No deficit No deficit No deficit VP 27% No deficit No deficit No deficit Millet, Cowpeas Misau, Katagum, Gaide, P 29% No deficit No deficit No deficit and Sesame LZ 2012-13 Gamawa, Darazo & 1,817,466 M No deficit No deficit No deficit 25% (MCS) Damban Bauchi BO 18% No deficit No deficit No deficit Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 15
OA Result Summary VP 28% No deficit No deficit No deficit Northern Auyo, Guri, Hadejia, Sept16- P 26% No deficit No deficit No deficit Floodplains Kafin Hausa, Kaugama, 1,773,540 Aug17 M 29% No deficit No deficit No deficit Irrigated Rice Kirikasama, Miga, BO 18% No deficit No deficit No deficit Wheat and Jigawa Malam Madori Babura, Birniwa, Dutse, VP 34% No deficit No deficit No deficit Sahel Mixd Cereals Sept16- Dagarawa, Garki, P 29% No deficit No deficit No deficit and Livestock 3,761,296 Aug17 Gwiwa, Gumel, Jahun, M 21% No deficit No deficit No deficit (NG13) Jigawa Kazaure, Kiyawa, BO 16% No deficit No deficit No deficit Abadam, Askira Uba, VP 25% No deficit No deficit No deficit North Central Sept16- Biu, Chibok, Hawul, P 27% No deficit No deficit No deficit Maize Sorghum and Borno 1,742,757 Aug17 Kwaya Kusar, Mobbar, M 25% No deficit No deficit No deficit Cotton LZ (NG10) Shani BO 23% No deficit No deficit No deficit Bama, Damboa, Dikwa, VP 38% Jun - Aug, 2019 7% 12% Northeast Millet Sept16- Gubio, Gwoza, Jere, P 26% No deficit No deficit No deficit Cowpea and Borno 4,014,959 Aug17 Kaga, Kalabalge, M 21% No deficit No deficit No deficit Sesame (NG12) Konduga, Mafa, BO 14% No deficit No deficit No deficit Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 16
Result- Borno NG12 Total Income (food+cash) Total Income (food+cash) Seasonal Expenditure (Food+Cash) District: Bama District: Bama District: Bama Livelihood Zone: NG12 Livelihood Zone: NG12 Livelihood Zone: NG12 Household type: VP Household type: VP Household type: VP 180% 180% 160% 160% 160% 140% 140% 140% % minimum food needs % minimum food needs 120% 120% % min. food energy needs 120% 100% 100% 80% 100% 80% 60% 60% 80% 40% 40% 60% 20% 20% 0% 40% ref.year curr.year thresholds 0% 20% milk milk sales crops S O N D J F M A M J J A S O 0% crop sales livestock sales ag. labour ref.year curr.year thresholds total expenditure deficit non ag. labour self employment small business gifts/remittances payment in kind 0 survival l/hoods protection wild foods/other food aid employment cash transfer Thresholds survival Threshold total income l/hoods protection Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 17
Result- Katsina (MAS LZ) Total Income (food+cash) Total Income (food+cash) Seasonal Expenditure (Food+Cash) District: Baure District: Baure District: Baure Livelihood Zone: NGMAS Livelihood Zone: NGMAS Livelihood Zone: NGMAS Household type: VP Household type: VP Household type: VP 160% 160% 140% 140% 140% 120% 120% % minimum food needs 120% % minimum food needs 100% 100% % min. food energy needs 100% 80% 80% 60% 80% 60% 40% 60% 40% 20% 20% 40% 0% ref.year curr.year thresholds 0% 20% animal products cons. animal products sold S O N D J F M A M J J A S O own crops consumed own crops sold 0% animals sold labour - casual/payment in kind ref.year curr.year thresholds total expenditure deficit labour - formal emp self - employment small business wild foods gifts - food gifts - cash other food transfer - official survival l/hoods protection Threshold total income labour - public works cash transfer - official Thresholds survival l/hoods protection Outcome Analysis Result Presentation October 2018 18
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