OMS Forecasting Workshop Tanya Paslawski & Marcus Hawkins May - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Organization of MISO States

OMS Forecasting Workshop

Tanya Paslawski & Marcus Hawkins May 22, 2018

Organization of MISO States

WHY ARE WE HERE?

There is a need to ensure planning processes at transmission and distribution system levels are in agreement

Many factors are leading to more resources that fall outside of the normal planning processes…

At the same time we have observed continued decreases in load forecasts

0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Forecasted Average Annual Growth Rate in MISO

Federal-level actions may require certain changes…

• RM16-23: DER participation through aggregation in

wholesale markets

• Order 841: removing barriers to energy storage

participation

• NERC Technical Guideline on DER Modeling

Using the wrong forecasts can lead to planning the wrong system…

124,000 126,000 128,000 130,000 132,000 134,000 136,000 138,000 140,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

MISO Footprint Load Forecasts by Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

12 GW

As a group of regulators, OMS has customers

• n the mind…

Organization of MISO States

WHERE ARE WE TODAY?

A Snapshot of Forecasting in MISO

MISO

• LSEs provide 10 year demand

and energy forecasts

• DER primarily captured as a load

reduction

• Separate 3rd party studies for

load and DERs

• MISO seeking greater amounts of

information from members

• BTMG assumptions

Utilities

• Recognize changes may be

needed, but cautious to alter current approach

• Forecasts have been checked by

ILF

• Uncertainty around MISO’s

proposed changes

• Working with regulators at different

paces, for different purposes

Data for tomorrow’s forecasts may not be collected today.

Question 4: Have you observed impacts from DER on the transmission system?

• Very few utilities have noticed

impacts at transmission-system level

• Those that have observed impacts

indicated that they were minimal and easily managed

• Only two stated that impacts were

expected in the future

3 24 2

Impacts Observed No Impacts Expect Impacts

A broad geographic footprint has an equally broad approach to forecasting…

• Many different state

processes and LSE forecasting methods

• Diverse sets of assumptions

throughout footprint

• Limited coordination with

MISO’s third party studies

Workshop Goals

• Understand current

challenges and concerns

• Identify spectrum of

best practices

• Understand complex

interplay of T-D systems

• At least one concrete

step forward

Next Steps

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