North Monterey County Drought Contingency Plan December 6, 2018 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

North Monterey County Water

Total Water Managem ent

Evaluating Options for a Reliable Water Future

North Monterey County Drought Contingency Plan

December 6, 2018

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Agenda

• Overview of Drought Contingency Plan (DCP) development steps and elements
• Participating Local Agencies
• Drought Monitoring
• Vulnerability Assessment
• Regional Drought Response Actions
• Regional Drought Mitigation Measures
• DCP Implementation: Near-term Projects and Operational and Administrative

Framework

• Final Steps

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

North Monterey County Water

Total Water Managem ent

Evaluating Options for a Reliable Water Future

Overview of Drought Contingency Plan Development Steps and Elements

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

DCP Drivers

• Over drafted groundwater

basins

• Seawater intrusion
• Fourth year of drought in 2016
• State-mandated actions

required to support sustainable groundwater use

Figure 1-2. U.S. Drought Monitor for May 26, 2015

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

F

Overview of Drought Contingency Plan Elements (Figure 1-4)

Reclamation defined six DCP elements

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

DCP Development Steps

• Detailed Work Plan
• Communication and Outreach Plan
• Agency and Stakeholder engagement
• 5 Workshops
• Coordination with Salinas and Carmel Rivers Basin

Study (SCRBS)

• Longer-term study process
• Larger regional area
• Developing new modeling and information
• Formulating and evaluating new drought mitigation

measures, will expand upon DCP

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Agency and Stakeholder Engagement

• February 2016 – Kickoff meeting to introduce DCP and Task Force, describe DCP

integration with other regional water supply investigations, introduce SCRBS

• August 2016 – Discuss linkages between the DCP and the SCRBS, data needs and initial

data gathering

• October 2017 - Joint DCP/SCRBS workshop to review

system interconnectedness schematics, data compiled to date, Urban Water Management Plans, preliminary drought mitigation measures, and response actions

• May 2018 – Joint DCP/SCRBS workshop to review the

vulnerability assessment and drought mitigation measures

• August 2018 – Reviewed drought mitigation measures

screening, drought response actions, and operational and administrative framework to support ongoing DCP efforts

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

North Monterey County Water

Total Water Managem ent

Evaluating Options for a Reliable Water Future

Participating Local Agencies

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Participating Local Agencies

• Alisal Water Company
• Monterey County Water

Resources Agency/Castroville Seawater Intrusion Project

• Monterey One Water
• California American Water

Company

• California Water Service

Company

• Castroville Community

Services District

• Marina Coast Water District
• Monterey Peninsula Water

Management District

Drought Contingency Plan Area (Figure 1-1)

Note: Project scope is to address the water agencies service areas. Groundwater basins shown on this figure are for reference only.

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Schematic of Existing Water Supplies (Figure 2-1)

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Historical and Future Potable Demands and Population (Figure 2-4)

• UWMPs projected water

demand to increase 47% from 2015 to 2035 and population to increase 65%

• AMBAG population

projection is about 10% lower than UWMP forecasts

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

North Monterey County Water

Total Water Managem ent

Evaluating Options for a Reliable Water Future

Drought Monitoring

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Drought Monitoring

• Local agencies conduct local water supply monitoring

–

measuring groundwater levels

–

seawater intrusion

–

Precipitation

–

reservoir releases

• Local agencies measure monthly consumption, well depth,

and production

• SVGB agricultural, urban, and industrial well extractions

reported to MCWRA as part of the Monterey County Groundwater Management Plan

• MPWMD determines water year type for the Carmel River

based on unimpaired streamflow

–

will declare a “drought” when there are two “dry” or “critically dry” years in a row

Figure 3-1. MCWRA’s Monthly Monitoring Wells in the SVGB

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

North Monterey County Water

Total Water Managem ent

Evaluating Options for a Reliable Water Future

Vulnerability Assessment

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Supply and Demand Comparison – 2020 Future Condition (Figure 4-1)

• Total demand

62,528 AFY

• 55 to 60% of supply

is from Salinas Valley Groundwater Basin

• Enough supply to

meet 2020 demands

Source: Agencies 2015 UWMPs and input from local agencies.

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Supply and Demand Comparison – 2035 Future Condition (Figure 4-2)

• Total demand 78,179 AF
• 50 to 60 % of supply

from Salinas Valley Groundwater Basin

• Supply shortfall in all

year types without

• cean desal
• Assumes MPWSP and

MCWD ocean desal plant expansion are about 10% of supply

Source: Agencies 2015 UWMPs and input from local agencies.

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Potential Impact of Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) on Groundwater Supply (Table 4-3)

• 10,000

20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000

2020 2025 2030 2035

Total Water Supplies (AFY) Year

5% SVGB reduction 10% SVGB reduction 15% SVGB reduction 20% SVGB reduction Demand Demand Deficit Deficit Deficit

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Vulnerability Assessment Evaluates Risk and Impacts of Drought

• Risk = Likelihood of reduced supply x

Consequence of reduced supply

– Likelihood – qualitative score based on

uncertainty factors that contribute to reduced supply

– Consequence – quantitative score based

significance of supply source

• Risk results indicate the supplies on which

drought mitigation measures should focus

• Risk is used to analyze how drought

mitigation measures will reduce regional vulnerability to drought

LIKELIHOOD OF FAILURE CONSEQUENCE OF FAILURE

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Likelihood - Uncertainty Factors Contributing to Loss/ reduction of Water Supplies

Uncertainty factors described and scored 1 to 5 for each water supply (Table 4-4)

• Climate change – altered/extreme precipitation patterns, more frequent/severe

droughts, higher water temperatures

• Infrastructure susceptibility and dry year supply limitations – Seismic risks, varies

by agency, subsidence

• Regulatory, environmental, and water rights constraints – Changes in water rights,

in-stream/downstream flow requirements, more stringent water quality regulations, impacts of SGMA, rights to wastewater effluent

• Cost constraints and affordability – rising costs for infrastructure improvements,

pumping costs, costly fisheries projects, increasing treatment requirements

• Source water quality degradation – Saltwater intrusion, algae by-products, salinity

and nutrients, constituents of concern

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Consequence - Significance of Supply Sources by Agency – 2035 Third Consecutive Drought Year (Figure 4-4)

Cal-Am supply portfolio Dependence

• n SVGB

supply (57% of region)

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Risk Matrix - 20 35 third consecutive drought year (Figure 4-5)

• SVGB supply has

highest consequence of failure

• Drought

mitigation measures should focus on reducing consequence and/or reducing likelihood

57% of regional supply is SVGB supply 57% Uncertainty factor score

• f 3
• Climate change
• Regulatory constraints

(i.e. SGMA)

• Costs constraints
• Water quality

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Impacts of Drought Across Sectors (Table 4-5)

Potential Drought Impact Agriculture Energy Environmental (Fish/Wildlife) Local Business Public Health Recreation Residential Tourism Increased water temperatures X X Increased nutrient levels, harmful algal blooms X X X X X Increased salinity in water and soil X X X X Reduced reservoir levels X X X X X X X Reduced stream flow X X X X X X X X Reduced groundwater supply X X X X X X New development limitations/moratorium X X Loss of vegetation, wetlands, crops X X X X X X Air quality degradation X X X X X Land subsidence X X X X Increased soil erosion X X X X X X X Increased evapotranspiration X X X X X More frequent and intense wildfires X X X X X X X

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

North Monterey County Water

Total Water Managem ent

Evaluating Options for a Reliable Water Future

Regional Drought Response Actions

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Drought Response Actions

Drought response actions definition

• Near-term actions triggered during specific stages of drought to manage the

limited supply and decrease the severity of immediate impacts

• Response actions can be quickly implemented and provide expeditious benefits

Water Shortage Contingency Plans (WSCPs)

• Each local water agency has a WSCP
• Stages of action – one to five or less
• Various supply shortage triggers based on

factors affecting each agency’s unique portfolio of supplies.

• WSCPs updated every five years as part of Urban Water Management Plans

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Regional Drought Response Coordination

• On-going regional coordination

– USBR Salinas and Carmel River Basins Study (started in 2017) – Greater Monterey County Integrated Regional Water Management (formed in

2012)

– Salinas Valley Water Management Group (formed in 2005) – Monterey Peninsula, Carmel Bay, and South Monterey Bay Integrated Regional

Water Management Plan (adopted in 2013)

– Salinas Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency (Established in 2017 under

SGMA)

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Future Regional Drought Response Actions

• Coordinated messaging and media runs
• Coordinate Pure Water Monterey

drought reserves to rely on ASR banked water

• Supplement the SRDF rubber dam with

additional pumps to increase supply during a drought

• Urban agencies coordinate with other

sectors including agricultural sector

• nce the GSP is in place to develop

drought response water conservation restrictions in all sectors

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

North Monterey County Water

Total Water Managem ent

Evaluating Options for a Reliable Water Future

Regional Drought Mitigation Measures

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Drought Mitigation Measures – Key Take-Aways

• Developed comprehensive list of over 50 potential structural and

programmatic/conceptual drought mitigation measures

–

119 reports/studies were reviewed

–

Agency interviews conducted

–

Structural projects address regional vulnerabilities by creating new water supplies to alleviate over use of the SVGB

–

Programmatic/conceptual projects are also a critical element to a holistic drought plan.

• A diverse water supply portfolio will allow the region to better address

its vulnerabilities

• Evaluation Criteria are used to screen and rank drought mitigation

measures

• The top two ranked drought mitigation measures provide for high

yield, new water supplies

–

Pure Water Monterey Groundwater Replenishment Program

–

Monterey Peninsula Water Supply Project

• There is a need to identify additional long-term, high yield projects as

well as storage projects to help mitigate regional vulnerabilities

New Water Supplies Storage Conservation/ Management Watershed Infrastructure Improvements

Drought mitigation measures fall into five primary categories

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Drought Mitigation Measures – Recommended Actions

• Pursue funding opportunities for the top 10 ranked

mitigation projects

• Continue to update the drought mitigation

measures matrix as projects are further defined or identified

• Develop water supply portfolios for Drought

Mitigation Measures projects to provide a balance

• f water supply, storage and water management

projects

– This is being done by the Salinas and Carmel Rivers Basin

Study

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Northern Monterey County Drought Mitigation Measures (Figure 6-3)

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Drought Mitigation Measure Evaluation Criteria (Table 6-2)

Table 6-2. Evaluation Criteria Ranking Criterion Ranking = 1 Ranking = 3 Ranking = 5 Project yield (AFY) / Availability Yield is <1,000 Yield is between 1,000 and 5,000 Yield > 5,000 Project timing (concept, feasibility, design, construction) Implementation in > 10 years Implementation in 5 to 10 years Implementation in 0 to 5 years Regional benefit to drought mitigation / Resiliency Benefits small area / single agency Benefits multiple agencies & Adds to Resiliency Benefits multiple agencies & Reduces highly vulnerable supplies Institutional considerations (stakeholder support, technical complexity, regulatory, reliance

• n other projects)

Complex project / significant stakeholder considerations Moderate project complexity/ Some stakeholder considerations Relatively simple project / Broad stakeholder support Consistent with / Supports SGMA Not Consistent/ Little to No importance supporting GSP meet sustainable groundwater basin goals Moderately important to supporting GSP meet sustainable groundwater basin goals Consistent with SGMA goals/ Critical to supporting GSP meet sustainable groundwater basin goals

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Top Ranked Structural Drought Mitigation Measures provide Regional Resilience

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

North Monterey County Water

Total Water Managem ent

Evaluating Options for a Reliable Water Future

DCP Implementation: Near-term Projects and Operational and Administrative Framework

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

DCP Implementation – Key Take-Aways

• Near-term: MPWMD will continue to provide leadership and strengthen

the regional partnership that has emerged from the DCP stakeholder process

• Efforts already in place will be used to inform assumptions related to both

surface and groundwater reliability and availability, i.e.:

– Development of GSPs and UWMPs – Information from the Salinas and Carmel Rivers Basin Study

• The drought mitigation measure projects should progress based on need

for the supply and relevant triggers rather than based solely on a timeline tied to a specific year

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

DCP Implementation Group Will Continue to Meet

• Continued coordination with Monterey County and the GSA
• Discuss funding and next steps to keep the DCP elements updated
• Use the modeling and analysis results of the SCRBS to check assumptions and update

the drought planning for the next version of the DCP

• Continue support and tracking of programmatic/conceptual projects in all categories

Recommendation:

• Form an operational sub-committee as a subset of the DCP Implementation Group to:

– Develop policies and approaches for drought response activities – Include future involvement from agricultural water users – Discuss land use issues – Coordinate on construction partnerships

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Leveraging Current Efforts Will Support the Update

• f DCP Elements in the Future (Figure 7-1)

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Top Ranked Projects Contributing to Regional Supply Reliability (Table 7-1)

Drought Mitigation Measures (Structural) Participating Agencies

DCP Participating Local Agency Purview

Pure Water Monterey Groundwater Replenishment Project M1W, MPWMD Interlake Tunnel and Spillway Modification Project MCWRA Pure Water Monterey Expansion M1W, MPWMD Modifications to Existing Facilities to Meet Winter Irrigation Demands M1W, MCWRA Recycled Water Element of the Regional Urban Water Augmentation Project (RUWAP) MCWD, FORA, MRWPA Recycled Water Element of the Regional Urban Water Augmentation Project (RUWAP) (expansion) MCWD, FORA, MRWPA CSIP Annexations M1W, MCWRA Salinas Valley Water Project Phase II MCWRA Lining Pond 3 at Salinas Industrial Wastewater Treatment Facility (SIWTF) M1W

Outside Purview of DCP Participating Local Agencies

Monterey Peninsula Water Supply Project Cal-Am Monterey Bay Regional Water Project Deep Water Desal LLC

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Potential Sequence of Decisions for Top Ranked Drought Mitigation Measures (Figure 7-2)

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Potential Sequence of Decisions for Top Ranked Drought Mitigation Measures (Figure 7-2)

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Potential Sequence of Decisions for Top Ranked Drought Mitigation Measures (Figure 7-2)

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

DCP Implementation Work Plan Overview (Figure 7-3)

• Ongoing quarterly/biannual

meetings

• Next 5 years

– MPWMD lead – Coordinate with Monterey

County/GSA

– Track/implement projects – Form operational sub-

committee

• Future

– Potentially M1W/GSP lead

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

North Monterey County Water

Total Water Managem ent

Evaluating Options for a Reliable Water Future

Final Steps

Monterey Peninsula Water Management District U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Final Steps

• Draft report distributed for review November 2, 2018

http://totalwatermanagement.org/reports-documents/

• Receive comments by December 31, 2018

– Please send comments to Melanie Holton at

mholton@brwncald.com

• Finalize DCP in February 2019