@niknanos Chief Data Scientist and Founder, Nanos Research Research - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Perspective and Opinions of Ontarians Association of Municipalities Ontario August 20 th , 2018 @niknanos Chief Data Scientist and Founder, Nanos Research Research Associate Professor, State University of New York, Buffalo Global Fellow, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington DC

The federal and provincial political landscape Municipal services Municipal taxes and property taxes Voting in the 2018 municipal elections Mayoral powers

Federal BALLOT 2015 Election 39% 31% 18% 5% 6% August 2018 36% 35% 20% 5% 3% 3

ON BALLOT 2018 Election 20% 41% 34% 5% June 2018 27% 38% 26% 8% 4

The environment

> Economic factors 12% of Ontarians believe the next generation will have a higher standard of living than Ontarians have today

> Truth vs symbolism 17% believe the truth 47% believe the lie

AMO Survey > Municipal Services

Most responsive levels of government 20% 35% 31% 14% 2018-06 20% 36% 33% 12% 2017-06 23% 29% 36% 12% 2017-02 18% 26% 38% 19% 2016-06 13% 34% 37% 16% 2014-07 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Federal government Provincial government Municipal government Unsure QUESTION – What level of government is most responsive to your needs? 9

Top challenges facing municipal governments > Infrastructure/ > Politics/Council/ > Budget/Funding/ Transportation Mayor Economy 7% 7% 31% > Social services/ > Construction/Growth > Housing programs/police/garbage 6% 5% 5%

Prioritization of municipal services Net Score 4% 84% 9% Ensuring quality drinking water +86.7 Making hospital changes so that municipal paramedics 64% 27% 5% +83.3 can have a patient entirely in the care of an ER faster 59% 33% 6% Improving the state of roads, bridges and transit +83.8 Having effective storm water systems and other flood 45% 35% 9% 9% +61.5 control systems Making housing available to lower income and homeless 44% 34% 14% 7% +57.2 people 42% 31% 16% 10% Providing health services +46.4 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% High priority Average priority Low priority Not a priority Unsure QUESTION – Please rate the importance of each service as a high, average, low or not a priority to you personally [RANDOMIZE] 11

Service contributing the most to property taxes Public Subgroups Unsure works Housing 7% Police and Ontario North (n=199) 29.8% 8% Fire services Ontario East (n=202) 37.9% 28% Greater Toronto Area (n=199) 32.5% Community Health Ontario South (n=200) 29.8% services City of Toronto (n=200) 36.2% 15% Male (n=498) 35.5% Female (n=502) 30.7% 18 to 29 (n=178) 41.3% Social and 30 to 39 (n=126) 40.8% Family 40 to 49 (n=188) 34.2% Services Public works 9% 33% 50 to 59 (n=203) 28.1% 60 plus (n=305) 23.3% QUESTION – From a list of five services, which one do you believe contributes the most to a residential property tax bill? [RANDOMIZE] 12

Wages and benefits of fire and police personnel 43% 30% 20% 6% 2018 38% 27% 28% 7% 2017 41% 26% 26% 7% 2016 32% 31% 27% 10% 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Having the same wage and benefit increases as other employees of the same municipality Having a rate of increase the same as other police and fire personnel across the province no matter where and, regardless of the size of the community Freezing the wages and benefits of police and fire personnel QUESTION – More and more, Ontario’s fire and police personnel are earning more than $100,000 per year in wages and benefits. Knowing this, which of the following options do you think is the most appropriate for the wages and benefits of fire and police personnel in a (or my) municipality? 13

Services to be cut if revenues do not grow > No services should be cut > Social services (Government > Lower spending on wages funded housing/welfare) for mun. employees and councillors 19% 8% 8% > Infrastructure maintenance > Emergency services (police, > Community and and building fire, ambulance) recreational services 5% 6% 7%

Media coverage in local communities Stayed the Net Increased Subgroups same Score 5% Unsure Ontario North (n=199) 40.8% 18% -24.5 Ontario East (n=202) 43.9% Greater Toronto Area (n=199) 48.7% Ontario South (n=200) 47.1% Stayed the same City of Toronto (n=200) 49.7% 47% Male (n=498) 44.8% Female (n=502) 49.5% Gone down 30% 18 to 29 (n=178) 47.9% 30 to 39 (n=126) 52.1% 40 to 49 (n=188) 42.2% 50 to 59 (n=203) 38.3% 60 plus (n=305) 53.9% QUESTION – Has media coverage of your community and municipal government increased, stayed the same or gone down due to local papers closing? 15

Method for obtaining community news > Local paper > TV News > Online 14% 26% 35% > Social media > Word of mouth > Radio 5% 5% 8%

Most valued service provided by local government > Safety and > Health care > Public works/ emergency services Infrastructure 17% 14% 13% > Water > Garbage/Recycling > Nothing pick up 6% 8% 5%

AMO Survey > Taxes

Municipal governments share of tax dollars Unsure Less than More than 17% 10% 50% 23% 3% 40% to 49% 2% 30% to 39% 7% 10% to 19% 20% to 29% 31% 17% QUESTION – What do you think is the percentage of tax dollars from every household tax dollar that goes to municipal governments? ____% goes to municipal governments 19

Relative share of taxes received by municipal governments Net Score 60% 5% 27% 8% +55.1 2018/06 66% 3% 26% 6% 2017/06 +61.3 68% 5% 19% 9% +63.3 2017/02 67% 4% 23% 6% 2016/06 +62.9 62% 5% 24% 9% 2014/07 +57.4 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Greater share Smaller share Current amount is just right Unsure QUESTION – When it comes to the collection of taxes in Canada, the federal government collects 47 per cent of every household tax dollar, the provincial government collects about 44 per cent and municipalities collect 9 per cent. In considering the services that each order of government delivers, do you think municipal governments should receive a greater share of the taxes, a smaller share or is the current amount just right? 20

Cutting municipal services to freeze property taxes Net Score -31.4 16% 13% 12% 49% 9% 2018-06 18% 15% 13% 50% 5% -30.7 2017-06 18% 11% 12% 53% 6% 2017-02 -36.3 16% 14% 11% 53% 6% 2016-06 -34.0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Oppose Unsure QUESTION – Thinking about your property taxes, would you support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or oppose the following: Your municipal government cutting services to freeze property taxes? 21

Keeping property tax increases to the rate of inflation Support/ Unsure Subgroups Somewhat support Support 10% Net Score 28% Ontario North (n=199) 42.4% Ontario East (n=202) 48.8% +2.2 Greater Toronto Area (n=199) 47.0% Ontario South (n=200) 46.0% City of Toronto (n=200) 44.1% Oppose Male (n=498) 49.8% 31% Female (n=502) 42.5% 18 to 29 (n=178) 37.8% Somewhat 30 to 39 (n=126) 47.4% support 40 to 49 (n=188) 43.3% 18% Somewhat 50 to 59 (n=203) 49.5% oppose 13% 60 plus (n=305) 52.2% QUESTION – Thinking about your property taxes, would you support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or oppose the following: Keeping your property tax increases to the rate of inflation no matter the impact on the quality or level of municipal 22 services

Property taxes covering future infrastructure needs Net Score 41% 28% 5% 19% +45.5 7% 2018-06 47% 30% 5% 14% 4% +58.4 2017-06 40% 32% 5% 18% 5% 2017-02 +48.9 43% 33% 4% 14% 6% 2016-06 +58.6 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Concerned Somewhat concerned Somewhat not concerned Not concerned Unsure QUESTION – Are you concerned, somewhat concerned, somewhat not concerned or not concerned that your current local property taxes will not cover the cost to fund the future maintenance, replacement and new essential infrastructure while maintaining other municipal services? 23

Allocation of a single tax dollar Municipal Subgroups government Unsure The federal Ontario North (n=199) 66.1% 6% government Ontario East (n=202) 55.9% 9% Greater Toronto Area (n=199) 57.6% A municipal government Ontario South (n=200) 65.2% 62% City of Toronto (n=200) 66.4% Male (n=498) 63.8% A provincial Female (n=502) 60.2% government 23% 18 to 29 (n=178) 56.4% 30 to 39 (n=126) 62.7% 40 to 49 (n=188) 64.4% 50 to 59 (n=203) 65.1% 60 plus (n=305) 61.7% QUESTION – If you had one new tax dollar to give to any order of government, who would you give it to? 24

Support for HST increase dedicated to infrastructure projects Net Score +17.5 43% 15% 8% 33% 2018-06 54% 19% 4% 20% 3% +49.9 2017-06 39% 18% 5% 35% +17.7 2017-02 41% 18% 6% 34% 2016-06 +18.3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Oppose Unsure QUESTION – Would you support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or oppose a 1% increase in the HST to be solely dedicated to municipal governments if you knew it would have to be used only for infrastructure projects in your community (for example, roads, bridges, water, transit)? 25