New York State Energy Planning Board New York State Transmission and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
New York State Energy Planning Board New York State Transmission and Distribution System Reliability Study Patrick Curran, NYISO Erin Hogan, NYSERDA Michael Worden, DPS June 4, 2012 T&D Reliability Study Highlights Introduction and
New York State Transmission and Distribution System Reliability Study
Patrick Curran, NYISO Erin Hogan, NYSERDA Michael Worden, DPS June 4, 2012
2
2
Overview of The Electric System
4
Fundamental Reliability Principle
4
Generation
5
New York State Generation
5 Source: NYISO, 2012
6
New York State High Voltage Transmission
6 Source: NYISO, 2012
HVDC
7
New York Transmission Owner Service Areas
7 Source: DPS, 2012
8
Historical Load Growth By Aggregated Wholesale Energy Load Zone
8
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 MWH Zones A-E Zones F-I Zones J-K
Transmission System Reliability
10
10
NYISO Market Participants Transmission Owners
11
NERC Interconnections
11 Source: NERC, 2012
12
– Resource Adequacy
– System Security Analysis or Operation Reliability
– Uncontrolled Loss of Load Event
Transmission Reliability Metrics
12
13
Transmission System Planning
– Area Transmission Review – Comprehensive System Planning Process
– EIPC – Northeast Coordinated Plan – Eastern Interconnection Assessment Group – NPCC Overall Transmission Assessment – NERC 2011 Long-Term Reliability Assessment
14
Transmission System Operations
– Assesses transfer limits on key interface
– Security Constrained Unit Commitment
– Real Time Commitment and Dispatch
– Normal – Warning – Alert – Major Emergency – Restoration
15
– 2011 Long-Term Reliability Assessment – 2011 Risk Assessment of Reliability Performance Report
– No reliability violations identified in base case – Risks identified in sensitivities
– Aging infrastructure – Opportunities to increase transfer capacity
Reliability Issues Identified in Planning Studies
15
16
New York State Transmission Assessment and Reliability Study
16 Source: STARS, 2012
Distribution System Reliability
18
Distribution Reliability
18
19
Distribution Reliability Metrics
19
Customer Average Interruption Duration Index (CAIDI) Number of Customer Hours/ Number of Customers Affected System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) Number of Customer Affected/Number of Customers Served
20
Distribution Performance
20
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
NYS CAIDI For Radial and Network
Radial With Storms Radial W/O Storms Network 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
NYS SAIFI For Radial and Network
Radial With Storms Radial W/O Storms Network Draft Draft
Note: 2011 Values are draft, does not include LIPA outage data from Hurricane Irene
21
Causes of Distribution Interruptions
21 Tree 27% Overload 3% Error 0% Equipment 40% Accident 13% Prearrang ed 14% Cust Equip 1% Lightning 5% Unknown 8%
Radial Interruptions
Services 81% Mains 7% Equipment 7% Accident 1% Prearrang ed 0% Cust Equip 4%
Network Interruptions
22
Number of Customer-Hour Interruptions
22 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Major Storm Related Outages Draft
Note: 2011 Values are draft, does not include LIPA outage data from Hurricane Irene
Investment and Expenditures
24
Utility Capital Expenditure ($000s)
24 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Actual Plan
25
Electric O&M Expenses ($000s)
25 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Trans Dist
Environmental Regulations
27
Environmental Regulations
– NOx RACT Rule – Best Available Retrofit Technology (BART) Rule – Utility MACT Rule – Best Technology Available (BTA) Policy
– Cross-State Air Pollution Rule – Cooling Water Intake Structures – Coal Combustion Residuals – CO2 Emission Allowance
Impacts to Reliability
29
Reliability Impacts From Policies
– Energy Efficiency – Large Load Growth – Other Load Varying Mechanisms
– Renewable Portfolio Standard – Distributed Generation
– Bulk Electric System Definition – Performance Rate Making, Multi-Year Rate Agreements, and
– Corporate Reorganization of Electric Utilities
Generation
Initiatives
Issues/Diversity of Supply
Load
30
Possible Future Reliability Issues
30
Emerging Technologies
technology & process poses challenges
could optimize asset utilization &
External Forces
Disturbances
estimated
developed
T&D
10 yrs nearing design life
in next 10-20 years
and downtime
unavailability
31
Preliminary Findings and Recommendations
generally appears to be reliable
developing policies
Questions?