[PPT] - Development of New York State Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curves PowerPoint Presentation

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Development of New York State Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curves

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority Albany, NY Prepared by: The Center for Climate Strategies (CCS) NYSERDA Agreement 10850

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Overview

Project Team Project Purpose / Goals New York State Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Inventory and Forecast Work Group Areas (Sectors) Covered Process / Work Products Next Steps Examples of Potential Results

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Project Team

NYSERDA Project Staff
Carl Mas
Sandra Meier
Project Advisory Committee (PAC)
Provide work group area (sector)/subject matter

expertise

Identify NY-specific data
Members from: NYSERDA, NYS PSC, NYSDEC, Dept. of

Agriculture & Markets, NYSDOT , NYC Mayor's Office, Columbia University, Electric Power Research Institute, Resources for the Future, Environmental Defense

Center for Climate Strategies (CCS)

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CCS Project Team

 Tom Peterson, President and CEO  Randy Strait, Project Manager  Jeff Wennberg, Project Manager  Work Group Area Leads:

 Residential, Commercial, Industrial (RCI)

 Michael Bobker, Building Performance Lab, CUNY  Hal Nelson, CCS

 Power Supply (PS)

 Bill Dougherty and Victoria Clark, Stockholm Environmental Institute (SEI)

 Agriculture, Forestry, and Waste Management (AFW)

 Steven Roe, E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc. (Pechan)

 Transportation and Land Use

 Lewison Lem and Mike Lawrence, Jack Faucett Associates, Inc. (JFA)

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Project Purpose / Goals

 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Abatement Cost Curve =

 $/tonne GHG reduction (y-axis) versus GHG reduction (mass- or percentage-basis) for target year (x-axis)

 Bottom-up approach - focus on specific technologies and best practices (TBPs) for New York State (NYS)  Analyze most promising (current & emerging) TBPs for NYS  TBP results to provide scientific and technical foundation (building blocks) for wide range of potential policy actions or mechanisms for NYS

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New York State

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Rest of World: 81.1% United States: 18.9% New YorkState: 3.8% Rest of United States: 96.2%

Note: New York State represents 6.5% of the U.S. population. The U.S. represents 4.6% of the world population.

National and Global Context for Greenhouse Gas Emissions

(Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Units) 2005 World Emissions Total: Billion Tons 6 . 41 2005 U.S. Emissions Total: Billion Tons 9 . 7

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New York State Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Source Category, 1990 – 2025

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50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Million Tons Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Electricity Generation Net Imports of Electricity Transportation Residential Commercial Industrial Other (Not Fuel Combustion)

277 277 298 305 283 286 292 293

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Work Group Areas (Sector-Based)

 Residential, Commercial, and Industrial (RCI) – Direct Fuel Use and Non-Energy Emissions  Power Supply (Electricity)  Transportation and Land Use (TLU)  Agriculture, Forestry, and Waste Management (AFW)

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Progress to Date

Technologies and Best Practices Identified
Quantification Methods Reviewed and

Approved

Model Development Complete
Technical Potential Analysis

under Review by PAC

Draft Cost Curves based on Technical

Potential under Review by PAC

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Technologies and Best Practices

CCS has Developed a Catalog of Technologies and

Best Practices (TBPs) by sector for NYS

Full universe of TBPs
Prioritized list of TBPs
Comprehensive list of data sources to support the

analysis (including baseline data)

Priority given to identifying NYS-specific data
Initial Catalog of Policy Actions or Mechanisms

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TBPs for the Residential, Commercial, and Industrial (RCI) Sectors

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Examples

RetroCommissioning Boilers, furnaces, & heatpumps Lighting Photovoltaics Efficiency curing, heating and drying

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Quantification Methods

Metrics
Net GHG emission reductions (tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent –

CO2e)

Net Costs (2006 dollars)
Levelized capital, fuel and avoided fuel, operating & maintenance
Discounted using 5% real discount rate
Estimate only direct costs (those borne by the entities implementing TBP)
Learning curve effects for RCI, PS, TLU included, if available
Pollutants: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, and Black Carbon
Geographic Coverage: NY State, NY City, Rest-of-State
Time period for analysis (2009-2030)
Technical potential analysis for TBPs (target years = 2010 and 2020)
Scenario analysis (target years = 2020 and 2030)

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Quantification Methods: Work Group Area-Specific Approach

Identifies TBPs to analyze
Priority list of TBPs to analyze
Based on PAC and NYSERDA comments
TBP sets developed for RCI and TLU to simplify analysis (resource

constraints)

Define baseline (reference case) for each TBP
NYS Draft Energy Plan modeling – Power Supply, RCI
NYS GHG emissions forecast – other sectors
Life-Cycle / Fuel-Cycle analysis used if data are available
Co-Benefits – Qualitative Assessment
Exception – fuel savings estimated for use in co-pollutant analysis

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Black Carbon (BC)

 BC: aerosol (particulate matter) species with positive climate forcing potential but currently without a global warming potential defined by the IPCC  Methods:

 NYS PM-10 emissions for 2002 and 2018

[Source: Mid-Atlantic – Northeast Visibility Union (MANE-VU)]

 Source-specific PM aerosol fractions applied to PM-10 emissions to estimate BC and organic material (OM)

[Source: EPA‟s Speciate Database]

 Climate response effects of BC+OM compared to CO2 (30- or 95-year atmospheric lifetime for CO2)

[Source: published work by M.A. Jacobson (Journal of Geophysical Physical Research) and others]

 Source category with OM:BC mass emission ratio >4.0 set to zero

[Ratio at which cooling effects of OM assumed to cancel warming effects of BC]

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Black Carbon (BC)

NYS Results:

 In 2002:

 CO2e emissions range from ~ 7.6 to 16.1 million (MM) tonnes  Mid-range = 11.9 MM tonnes  Primary sources are oil (diesel) and coal combustion

 In 2018:

 CO2e emissions range from ~ 4.2 to 8.9 MM tonnes  Mid-range = 6.6 MM tonnes  Drop in mid-range emissions due to new engine and fuels standards for onroad and nonroad diesel sectors

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Documentation of Technologies & Best Practices (TBPs)

 Mitigation approach description  GHG reduction technologies and practices  Mitigation design

 Goals and timing  Parties involved  Baseline conditions

 Types and permanence of GHG reductions  „Learning Curve‟ Assumptions  Implementation Scenarios  Results: Estimated GHG savings and costs per MtCO2e  Key assumptions and uncertainties

 Co-benefits and external costs

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Technical Potential Analysis

Maximum emission reduction potential of a TBP that is

technically feasible beyond baseline (existing) conditions without consideration of costs, market barriers, or market acceptability

Exception – Power Supply: Limited to TBPs that use a

geographically limited resource (e.g., wind & solar)

Purpose –
Potential for application of TBP unit (or set) statewide
Establish starting point (baseline) for statewide policy

scenario analysis that considers costs, market barriers, or market acceptability

Includes supply constraints (e.g., NYS capacity for

biofuel projection and allocation of capacity to demand side (e.g., transportation and PS sectors)

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Next Steps

Policy Scenario analysis builds upon the Technical

Potential results by applying “real world” constraints and limits on TBP implementation (e.g., access to capital, regulatory delays, market acceptance, etc.)

Reflects a “ramp-up” over time or similar “phase-in”

constraint applied to the Technical Potential emissions reductions

Will account for interactions between TBPs across

sectors (where they occur) to avoid double-counting of emission reductions and costs

Macroeconomic modeling analysis of scenarios
Prepare draft report for project
Final report addressing NYSERDA and PAC

comments

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Examples of Cost Curves

Michigan Climate Action Plan
Southern Governor‟s Association –

Draft results

Cost curves –
Reflect the expected net GHG emissions

reductions for each policy scenario (option) given the expected adoption of each technology for one or more target years in ranked order, from the most cost-effective (lowest $/tonne cost) to the least cost effective

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Sample Michigan policy recommendations ranked by cumulative (2009–2025) GHG reduction potential

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Cumulative Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential of Michigan Policy Options 2009-2025

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 R C I

2

R C I

7

E S

1

R C I

1

R C I

4

A F W

1

T L U

1

E S

6

A F W

8

E S

1

1 A F W

9

T L U

2

A F W

1

A F W

7

R C I

6

A F W

6

E S

1

3 T L U

3

T L U

7

E S

1

T L U

6

A F W

5

T L U

9

T L U

8

T L U

5

A F W

4

A F W

3

T L U

4

GHG Reduction (MMtCO 2e)

Energy Supply Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Transportation and Land Use Agriculture, Forestry, and Waste

RCI-2: Existing Buildings Energy Efficiency Incentives, Assistance, Certification, and Financing RCI-7: Promotion and Incentives for Improved Design and Construction in the Private Sector ES-1: Renewable Portfolio Standard

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Sample Michigan policy recommendations ranked by net cost/cost savings per ton of GHG removed

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Michigan Policy Options Ranked by Cost / Savings per Ton GHG Reduced, 2009-2025

(Negative values signify monetary savings)

$200
$150
$100
$50

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300

TL U-6 TL U-2 AF W-9 TL U-3 TL U-5 AF W-4 RC I-4 RC I-7 RC I-2 RC I-1 AF W-7 AF W-10 AF W-3 E S-13 E S-11 E S-10 AF W-8 TL U-1 AF W-1 E S-6 AF W-5 TL U-8 E S-1 AF W-6 RC I-6 TL U-7 TL U-4

Energy Supply Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Transportation and Land Use Agriculture, Forestry, and Waste

*TLU-4 cost effectiveness is $1,458 per ton TLU-6: Land Use Planning and Incentives TLU-2: Eco Driver Program AFW-9: Source Reduction, Advanced Recycling, and Organics Management

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Sample Sector Results, Southern Governor’s Association (SGA)

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SGA Draft Preliminary Results

Sector Policy Options 2020 GHGs Removed (MMtCO2e) $/Ton GHG Removed GHGs Removed vs. 2020 Baseline Emissions Cumulative GHGs Removed AFW-1 Soil Carbon Management 9.24

$12.76

0.27% 0.27% AFW-2 Nutrient Management 3.25

$10.10

0.10% 0.37% AFW-11 MSW Landfill Gas Management 20.81

$0.42

0.61% 0.97% AFW-7 Reforestation/Afforestation 87.89 $13.60 2.57% 3.55% AFW-3 Manure Digestion and Methane Utilization 2.53 $14.63 0.07% 3.62% AFW-10 Enhanced Recycling of Municipal Solid Waste 84.03 $18.84 2.46% 6.08% AFW-6 Forest Retention 28.22 $19.11 0.83% 6.90% AFW-8 Urban Forestry 16.75 $57.20 0.49% 7.39% 22 10/15/2009

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Sample Sector Cost Curve, SGA

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$20
$10

$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 2 4 6 8 10 $/tCO2e Percentage Reduction of 2020 Economy-wide BAU GHG Emissions

AFW Marginal Cost Curve of SGA, 2020 (Center for Climate Strategies, 2009)

AFW-1: Soil Carbon Mgt. AFW-2: Nutrient Mgt. AFW-11: MSW Landfill Gas Mgt. AFW-7: Reforestation/Afforestation AFW-3: Livestock Manure AFW-10: Enhanced Recycling of MSW AFW-6: Forest Retention AFW-8: Urban Forestry

SGA Draft Preliminary Results

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Sample Sector Cost Curves, SGA

SGA Draft Preliminary Results

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Sample Economy-wide Cost Curve, SGA

SGA Draft Preliminary Results

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Thank You

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