Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of G4M parameters Mykola Gusti, Nikolay Khabarov and Nicklas Forsell 4th International Workshop on Uncertainty in Atmospheric Emissions, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015 Acknowledgements. The work has been carried out within the project "Options Market and Risk-Reduction Tools for REDD+" funded by the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation under agreement number QZA-0464 QZA-13/0074.
Outline • Introduction • Method • Results and discussion • Conclusions and Challenges • Questions and answers Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of G4M 2 parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Introduction • MACC – a “tool” for analysis of mitigation policies Kesicki (2011) Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 3 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Introduction • Model derived MACC: (BAU emissions – Mitigated emissions) against mitigation costs Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 4 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Introduction • Model uncertainty and MACC: (BAU emissions + Err – Mitigated emissions - Err) (BAU emissions + Err1 – Mitigated emissions – Err2) Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 5 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Introduction • Model uncertainty and MACC: (BAU emissions + Err – Mitigated emissions - Err) ? (BAU emissions + Err1 – Mitigated emissions – Err2) ? What is sensitivity of the MACCs to selected model parameters? Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 6 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Introduction • how the parameter uncertainties can impact GHG abatement policies related to forest sector? Modified figure from Kesicki (2011) Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 7 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Generating LUC abatement cost curves: Modeling framework Assumptions on GDP, population, bio-energy Basic drivers by world regions Elaboration of Trade GLOBIOM basic drivers Wood prices, land rents, wood demand Wood production potential, init. prices Elaboration of Calibration EFISCEN EFISCEN G4M projections to FAO data Projections of Afforestation, Forest net forestry reforestation, management emissions deforestation Abatement Afforestation, Cropland Forest cost curve management reforestation, management estimation deforestation Fuss et al. An approach to assessing benefits of advanced global carbon 8 observation system. ICDC 2013 - Beijing – 3-7 June 2013
Method: G4M overview Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 9 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Method G4M: LUC decisions Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 10 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Method • “Baseline”: CO2 initial prices starting in 2020 (0, 1, 3, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 40, 50, 60, 80, 100, 120 USD/tCO2) and rising 5% / year (CO2 price range: 4-520 USD/ton CO2 in 2050) • “Sensitivity”: decrease/increase cr , w , and l them by 1, 2.5, 5, 10, 50 and 90% one by one for each CO2 price • Build MACC as a difference of total biomass CO2 emissions at non-zero CO2 price and zero CO2 price in 2030 Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 11 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Results and discussion Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 12 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Results and discussion Deviation of total MACC due to agriculture land price variation 1700 lm1 1200 lm10 lm2_5 700 lm5 MtCO2/year lm50 lm90 200 lp1 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 lp10 -300 lp2_5 lp5 -800 lp50 lp90 -1300 USD/tCO2 Böttcher et al. Global forestry emission projections and abatement costs 13 EGU 2012 - Vienna - 22-27 April 2012
Results and discussion Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 14 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Results and discussion Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 15 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Results and discussion Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 16 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Results and discussion Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 17 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Impact on policy analysis C tax Resulting reduction Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 18 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Impact on policy analysis Resulting C price C allowances Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 19 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Final remarks • Non-linear IAM - MACCs may be sensitive to variation of the model parameters. • G4M MACCs are much more sensitive to parameter variation at a certain range of CO 2 prices, usually low CO 2 prices. • G4M total biomass CO2 MACCs are most sensitive to variation of corruption coefficient and agriculture land price. • MACC uncertainty can influence outcome of policy analysis. • Inform experts applying MACCs for policy analysis on MACC uncertainty! Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 20 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Contact information Mykola Gusti Ecosystem Services and Management International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria Phone: (+43 2236) 807 534 Fax: (+43 2236) 71 313 Web: http://www.iiasa.ac.at Email: gusti@iiasa.ac.at
Results and discussion Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 22 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Results and discussion Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 23 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Results and discussion Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 24 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Results and discussion Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 25 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Results and discussion Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 26 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Results and discussion Gusti et al. Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of 27 G4M parameters. 4th IWUAE, Kraków , 7th-9th October, 2015
Model comparison Kindermann et al. 2008: Global emission reduction (avoided deforestation) USD / t CO 2 CO 2 emission reduction, Mt CO2/year Fuss et al. An approach to assessing benefits of advanced global carbon 28 observation system. ICDC 2013 - Beijing – 3-7 June 2013
Method (details * ) *Gusti et al., 2012, Simulation of REDD+ options using IIASA model cluster, iEMSs-2012 Fuss et al. An approach to assessing benefits of advanced global carbon 29 observation system. ICDC 2013 - Beijing – 3-7 June 2013
Modeling framework Assumptions on GDP, population, bio-energy Basic drivers by world regions Elaboration of Trade GLOBIOM basic drivers Wood prices, land rents, wood demand Wood production potential, init. prices Elaboration of Calibration EFISCEN EFISCEN G4M projections to FAO data Projections of Afforestation, Forest net forestry reforestation, management emissions deforestation Abatement Afforestation, Cropland Forest cost curve management reforestation, management estimation deforestation Fuss et al. An approach to assessing benefits of advanced global carbon 30 observation system. ICDC 2013 - Beijing – 3-7 June 2013
Modeling approach Half degree grid cells World regions Simulation units Potential harvest Carbon stocks GDP and Pop. density Initial NPV(s) Crop and wood G4M yields GLOBIOM EPIC price Manage- Forestry ment Calib. to FAO Land use Agriculture params FRA 2010 Change in and Forest NPV(s) and Loss Map Wood price Wood demand Afforestation Deforestation Agriculture land Fuss et al. An approach to assessing benefits of advanced global carbon 31 observation system. ICDC 2013 - Beijing – 3-7 June 2013
G4M: Modeling approach FM: H=WD NPV→max 0.5 o x 0.5 o Fuss et al. An approach to assessing benefits of advanced global carbon 32 observation system. ICDC 2013 - Beijing – 3-7 June 2013
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