Nebojsa Nakicenovic Nebojsa Nakicenovic GEA Director GEA Director - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

IIASA IIASA

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Nebojsa Nakicenovic Nebojsa Nakicenovic

GEA Director GEA Director

IIASA and its international partners present IIASA and its international partners present

www. www.GlobalEnergyAssessment GlobalEnergyAssessment.org .org

IAMC Meeting, IAMC Meeting, NIES, Tsukuba NIES, Tsukuba – – 15 15-

• 16 September 2009

16 September 2009

Need for an Energy Assessment Need for an Energy Assessment

• The world is at a critical juncture for energy

The world is at a critical juncture for energy policy, new challenges have emerged, while policy, new challenges have emerged, while

• ld ones remain
• ld ones remain
• Previous studies do not identify the

Previous studies do not identify the strategies and solutions needed to strategies and solutions needed to comprehensively comprehensively address address today today’ ’s major s major energy and energy energy and energy-

• related challenges in an

related challenges in an integrated integrated way way

GEA Objectives include: GEA Objectives include:

• Science based, comprehensive, integrated, and

Science based, comprehensive, integrated, and policy policy-

• relevant

relevant analysis of issues and options analysis of issues and options related to: related to: – – Energy and sustainability challenges Energy and sustainability challenges – – Resource and technology options, demand and Resource and technology options, demand and supply supply – – System issues, scenarios System issues, scenarios – – Policy options Policy options

• Local, Regional, and Global dimensions

Local, Regional, and Global dimensions

integration of knowledge clusters integration of knowledge clusters

• Cluster I

Cluster I characterizes nature and characterizes nature and magnitude magnitude of challenges,

• f challenges,

and express them in selected indicators and express them in selected indicators

• Cluster II

Cluster II reviews existing and future resource and technology reviews existing and future resource and technology

• ptions
• ptions
• Cluster III

Cluster III integrates integrates cluster II elements into systems, and links cluster II elements into systems, and links these to indicators from Cluster I these to indicators from Cluster I

• This will include energising of rural areas, land use, water,

This will include energising of rural areas, land use, water, urbanisation, life urbanisation, life-

• styles, etc.

styles, etc.

• Scenarios, using numerical models and storylines, will be used

Scenarios, using numerical models and storylines, will be used for the for the integration integration, in an , in an iterative iterative fashion fashion

• Cluster IV

Cluster IV assesses policy options, and specifically identifies assesses policy options, and specifically identifies policy packages policy packages that are linked to scenarios meeting the that are linked to scenarios meeting the needs, again in an needs, again in an iterative iterative fashion. fashion.

Main Transition Strategies

• End-use and efficiency focus with

contribution of supply GEA-Low (Di- Ana)

• Supply-side focus with contribution of

efficiency GEA-High (Anan-D)

• Balanced contributions of measures

GEA-Mid (Kir-K)

• Overall socioeconomic development

goals are met in all scenarios (intermediate population & GDP)

“GEA-L”

Di-Ana

Demand-side & behavioral change Supply-side change

“GEA-H”

Anan-D

Supply-side change Demand-side & behavioral change

“GEA-M”

Kir-K

Supply-side change Demand-side & behavioral change Balanced Approach

CO2 Emissions Reductions GEA-L

• 5.0
• 2.5

0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 GtC/yr

Demand (tech + behavior) Fossil CCS Nuclear Renewables + Bio-CCS

Trade-offs and Synergies

Focus Security and Climate Change Objectives

• Aim to explore policy trade-offs and synergies:

– different temporal scales – alternative objectives – Requires multi-objective analysis

• Scenario sensitivity analysis for a combination of

different targets for:

– Short-term GHG and pollutant emissions – Long-term climate target (probability of staying below 2C) – Short-term security targets (limiting regional trade)

• Multi-criteria optimization

• The magnitude of the change required in the global

energy system will be huge

• The challenge is to find a way forward that addresses

simultaneously climate change, security, equity and economics issues.

• Paradigm change is needed: radical improvements in

energy end-use efficiency, new renewables, advanced nuclear and carbon capture and storage.

• Needs to be globally integrated but with maximum

support of countries and local levels.

• In the best spirit of science: fact-based and peer-

reviewed

11

www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

Towards a more Sustainable Future

IIASA IIASA

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Confronting the Challenges of Energy for Confronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: Sustainable Development: The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis and its international partners present and its international partners present

www. www.GlobalEnergyAssessment GlobalEnergyAssessment.org .org