Role of Technology in Reducing CO 2 to Zero Nebojsa Nakicenovic - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Role of Technology in Reducing CO 2 to Zero Nebojsa Nakicenovic Deputy Director General International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Former Professor of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology 15 th IAEE European Conference
15th IAEE European Conference 2017, Heading Towards Sustainable Energy Systems, Evolution or Revolution, Vienna – 3-6 September 2017
Deputy Director General
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Former Professor of Energy Economics
Vienna University of Technology
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Source: Grubler et al, 2012 230GW @ $0.8/W
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Limiting global warming to “well below” 2 degrees celsius Achieving net-zero GHG emissions by mid of the 21st century Regular review and improvement of nationally determined contributions Mobilizing $100 billion a year in support by 2020 through 2025
Bildquelle: https://www.wmo.int/media/
Source: Schellnhuber, 2016
IUCN, 2017 #5 Nakicenovic Rockström
Source: Data from Petit et al. 1999, labeled as in Young and Steffen 2009.
IUCN, 2017 #6 Nakicenovic Rockström
Adapted from Schellnhuber et al. 2016
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Source: IPCC WGI, 2013
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Net carbon emission (in year 2100)
NO Scenarios with net negative Emissions above ~ 2.8 degree NO Scenarios without net negative Emissions below ~ 1.5 degree net negative carbon emissions
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
20 40 60
Net carbon emissions in 2100 [Gt CO2]
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1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Mikrochip Kommerzielle Luftfahrt Fernseher Vakuumröhre Ottomotor Elektrischer Motor Dampf- maschine Nuklear- energie
Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
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1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
Bio-CCS – negative CO2 Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS
Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030
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1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
Energie Einsparungen (Effizienz, Umwandlung und Verhalten) ~50% Verbesserung bis 2030 ~50% EE bis 2030
Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas
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Pictures: Courtesy of Charlie Wilson
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Source: Grubler et al. ALPS-2012t
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17
Source: After Granger Morgan, 2013
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Source: Campanale, Carobntracker