Role of Technology in Reducing CO 2 to Zero Nebojsa Nakicenovic - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

role of technology in reducing co 2 to zero
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Role of Technology in Reducing CO 2 to Zero Nebojsa Nakicenovic - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Role of Technology in Reducing CO 2 to Zero Nebojsa Nakicenovic Deputy Director General International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Former Professor of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology 15 th IAEE European Conference


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15th IAEE European Conference 2017, Heading Towards Sustainable Energy Systems, Evolution or Revolution, Vienna – 3-6 September 2017

Nebojsa Nakicenovic

Deputy Director General

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Former Professor of Energy Economics

Vienna University of Technology

Role of Technology in Reducing CO2 to Zero

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2017 #2 Nakicenovic 2017 #2 Nakicenovic

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2017 #3 Nakicenovic 2017 #3 Nakicenovic

Supply Technologies Cost Trends

Source: Grubler et al, 2012 230GW @ $0.8/W

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2017 #4 Nakicenovic

Limiting global warming to “well below” 2 degrees celsius Achieving net-zero GHG emissions by mid of the 21st century Regular review and improvement of nationally determined contributions Mobilizing $100 billion a year in support by 2020 through 2025

The Paris Agreement

Bildquelle: https://www.wmo.int/media/

Source: Schellnhuber, 2016

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IUCN, 2017 #5 Nakicenovic Rockström

100,000-year ice-core record

Source: Data from Petit et al. 1999, labeled as in Young and Steffen 2009.

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IUCN, 2017 #6 Nakicenovic Rockström

Tipping Elements & Paris

Adapted from Schellnhuber et al. 2016

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2017 #7 Nakicenovic 2017 #7 Nakicenovic

Cumulative Emissions & Temperature

Source: IPCC WGI, 2013

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2017 #8 Nakicenovic 2017 #8 Nakicenovic

Net-Negative CO2 Emissions

  • Max. temperature change in 21th century

Net carbon emission (in year 2100)

NO Scenarios with net negative Emissions above ~ 2.8 degree NO Scenarios without net negative Emissions below ~ 1.5 degree net negative carbon emissions

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60

  • Max. temperature change [K]

Net carbon emissions in 2100 [Gt CO2]

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2017 #9 Nakicenovic 2017 #9 Nakicenovic

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Mikrochip Kommerzielle Luftfahrt Fernseher Vakuumröhre Ottomotor Elektrischer Motor Dampf- maschine Nuklear- energie

Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass

Global Primary Energy

Historical Evolution

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2017 #10 Nakicenovic 2017 #10 Nakicenovic

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass

Bio-CCS – negative CO2 Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS

Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030

Global Primary Energy

A Transformational Pathway

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#12

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass

Globale Primärenergie

Energie Einsparungen (Effizienz, Umwandlung und Verhalten) ~50% Verbesserung bis 2030 ~50% EE bis 2030

Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas

≈ 1.5oC

→ immediate Peak

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2017 #13 Nakicenovic 2017 #13 Nakicenovic

Pictures: Courtesy of Charlie Wilson

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2017 #14 Nakicenovic 2017 #14 Nakicenovic

“Learning” Through Scale Economies of scale, US wind turbines

Source: Grubler et al. ALPS-2012t

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2017 #15 Nakicenovic

Possible transformational technologies

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2017 #16 Nakicenovic

NET Power Breaks Ground on Demonstration Plant for Oxyfuel, Nantural Gas ZEP, La Porte, Texas

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2017 #17 Nakicenovic

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1850 1950 1900 2000 2050

Source: After Granger Morgan, 2013

Transformational Change

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2017 #18 Nakicenovic 2017 #18 Nakicenovic

Darum geht zu allen Völkern […] und lehrt sie alles zu befolgen was ich Euch geboten habe. Seid gewiss: Ich bin bei euch alle Tage bis ans Ende der Welt.

Disruptive Change

Source: Campanale, Carobntracker

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THANK YOU

naki@iiasa.ac.at