Moving Beyond Poverty: Data for Discussion Thurston County United - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Moving Beyond Poverty: Data for Discussion

Thurston County United Way

November 17, 2015

Marc Baldwin, Ph.D. Marc.Baldwin@OFM.WA.Gov Forecasting and Research Office of Financial Management

1

2

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 1969 1979 1989 1999 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Percent in Poverty for Thurston County, 1970-2014

Sources: Census of Population and Housing 1970, 1980, 1990 and 20000 and American Community Survey 2005-2014, U.S. Census Bureau

Person Family Household

3

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Percent of Students Eligible for Free/Reduced Price Lunches 2004-05 to 2014-15: Washington State and Thurston County

Source: Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction: Washington State Report Card

Thurston County Washington State

Historically Slow Recovery

4

5

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Percent of Labor Force

U.S., Washington State, and Olympia Unemployment Rates

January 2000 - September 2015

Washington U.S. Olympia

Low Unemployment Rates Hasn’t Automatically Resulted in Wage Gains

2 4 6 8 10 12 $300 $310 $320 $330 $340 $350 $360 1979Q1 1980Q1 1981Q1 1982Q1 1983Q1 1984Q1 1985Q1 1986Q1 1987Q1 1988Q1 1989Q1 1990Q1 1991Q1 1992Q1 1993Q1 1994Q1 1995Q1 1996Q1 1997Q1 1998Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1

U.S. Median Weekly Wages

Median Weekly Wages Unemployment Rate

Wages climb and level off with sustained lower unemployment. Wages declining despite tighter labor markets.

Unemployment

6

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Wages moved slightly as unemployment fell.

7

Increasing job openings are not reducing unemployment as much as in the past, suggesting problems in the labor market.

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Beveridge Curve Shifts Outward in Jobless Recovery Since 2009

Job Openings as % of Labor Force Unemployment (% of Labor Force)

Source: The Changing Nature of Recessions, American Institute for Economic Research, Research Study, 2014, page 12

"The Beveridge curve slopes down because higher levels of job openings represent a more robust labor market, which corresponds to lower unemployment rates. The curve shifts out when an increase in job openings fails to reduce unemployment July 2009 June 2015 January 2005

January 2005 to June 2009 July 2009 to June 2015

Source: Mark Perry, American Enterprise Institute, November 2014

Sources of inequality include:

• More earners per household
• Marital status
• Age of householder
• Work hours
• Educational attainment

Policies that address these might be a good place to start.

8

* * * * *

9 Census QuickFacts Table Olympia-Tumwater, WA Metro Area Thurston County Washington Population, 2014 estimate 265,851 7,061,530 Population, percent change - April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2014 5.4% 5.0% Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014 15.2% 14.1% White alone, percent, 2014 (a) 82.9% 80.7% Black or African American alone, percent, 2014 (a) 3.4% 4.1% American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014 (a) 1.7% 1.9% Asian alone, percent, 2014 (a) 5.7% 8.2% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014 (a) 1.0% 0.7% Two or More Races, percent, 2014 5.2% 4.5% Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014 (b) 8.4% 12.2% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014 76.3% 70.4% Living in same house 1 year & over, percent, 2009-2013 81.6% 82.7% Foreign born persons, percent, 2009-2013 7.6% 13.2% Language other than English spoken at home, pct age 5+, 2009-2013 10.8% 18.5% High school graduate or higher, percent of persons age 25+, 2009-2013 92.9% 90.0% Bachelor's degree or higher, percent of persons age 25+, 2009-2013 32.3% 31.9% Veterans, 2009-2013 29,091 582,265 Mean travel time to work (minutes), workers age 16+, 2009-2013 24.7 25.7 Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013 $29,744 $30,742 Median household income, 2009-2013 $62,229 $59,478 Persons below poverty level, percent, 2009-2013 11.7% 13.4%

Thurston County Residents At a Glance

10

• 1,500
• 1,000
• 500

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Federal Government State Government Local Government

Change in Nonfarm Jobs in Olympia MSA

From Previous Cycle Peak (2008) to Current

Industry Employment

(Olympia Metropolitan Statistical Area, August 2015)

Employment Average Wage State Government 24,200 $60,209 Education and Health Services 15,800 $42,621 Retail Trade 12,200 $28,134 Local Government 11,700 $45,907 Professional and Business Services 10,000 $42,945 Leisure and Hospitality 9,800 $17,009 Mining, Logging, and Construction 4,700 $48,038 Financial Activities 4,300 $52,496 Other Services 4,300 $33,855 Manufacturing 3,900 $48,471 Wholesale Trade 3,100 $87,897 Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities 2,400 $40,152 Information 900 $58,450 Federal Government 900 $74,234

11

Many “prime age” workers are leaving the labor force all together in the recovery.

71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

Percent of Resident Civilian Population Percent of Resident Civilian Population

Labor Force Participation Rate of 25-54 Year Olds

Males Females

12

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

13

$30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 $60,000 $65,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Median Household Income in the United States, Washington State and Thurston County, 2005-2014

Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau

United States Washington State Thurston County

• $8,000
• $6,000
• $4,000
• $2,000

$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

Difference in Real Median Earnings in Washington between 2013 and 2007, by Age and Educational Attainment, 2013 Dollars

Less Than High School High School Diploma/GED Some College Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree Advanced Degree

Dollars Age Source: American Community Survey 2011-13, US Census Bureau

14

15

$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Median Gross Rent (Rent and Utilities) for Washington State and Thurston County, 2005-2014

Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau

Washington Thurston County

Thurston County Child Dependency Ratio (0-17) Aged Dependency Ratio( 65+) Total Dependency Ratio Total Dependents Precent of Population of Working Age (18-64) Year 1980 49:100 16:100 65:100 48,957 60.6% 1990 44:100 19:100 63:100 62,364 61.3% 2000 40:100 18:100 58:100 76,156 63.3% 2010 36:100 20:100 56:100 90,886 64.0% 2020 36:100 29:100 64:100 112,979 60.8% 2030 36:100 35:100 71:100 135,674 58.4% 2040 35:100 36:100 71:100 148,677 58.5% Source: 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 Censuses and OFM's 2012 GMA Projections

16

Most Thurston County residents are too young to work or are over Social Security retirement age

17

2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50 2.60 2.70 2.80 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Average Persons Per Household 2005-2014, Washington State and Thurston County

Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau

Washington-Own Thurston County-Own Washington-Rent Thurston County-Rent

Self-Sufficiency Standard for Thurston County

Adult + 2 Adults + 3 Adults

Monthly Costs

Adult preschooler 2 Adults preschooler (no children) Housing

838 1026 838 1026 1026

Child Care

776 776

Food

251 380 494 616 691

Transportation

255 263 494 502 494

Health Care

116 413 459 469 516

Miscellaneous

146 286 229 339 273

Taxes

274 568 358 601 426

Earned Income Tax Credit (-) Child Care Tax Credit (-)

• 53
• 50

Child Tax Credit (-)

• 83
• 83

Self-Sufficiency Wage

Hourly

$10.68 $20.32 $8.16 $11.92 $9.73

per adult per adult per 2 adults

Monthly

$1,879 $3,577 $2,872 $4,195 $3,426

Annual

$22,553 $42,919 $34,461 $50,340 $41,109

Source: Diana Pearce, The Self-Sufficiency Standard for Washington State 2014 (Seattle-King County Workforce Development Council). “Self-sufficiency” is meeting basic needs in six categories. Depending on family size and geography, it is much higher than the poverty level but lower than median family income under Housing and Urban Development programs. 18

Don’t Despair! Policy Options for Real Recovery

• Promote Earned Income Tax Credit
• Expand high wage employers, set appropriate minimum

wages

• Increase access to education and lower cost
• Workforce policy to match employers and job seekers
• Reduce pressure on working families (child care,

transportation, sick leave, affordable housing)

• Other things you come up with today!

19