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Monitoring, modelling and managing land use change on a large scale - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Monitoring, modelling and managing land use change on a large scale Hermann Lotze-Campen Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) ALTER-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 07 Sep 2008 What makes God laugh? Tell him about your future

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Monitoring, modelling and managing land use change on a large scale

Hermann Lotze-Campen

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) ALTER-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 07 Sep 2008

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SLIDE 2

What makes God laugh? – Tell him about your future plans!

(Woody Allen)

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Motivation

  • Agriculture: between economy and environment
  • Land use: food, fibre, forest, freshwater, fuel,

fertile soils, flora&fauna

  • Global vs. regional perspective
  • Goal: long-term, global, integrated, spatially explicit

approach to land use management

  • "Gardening the world in the anthropocene"
  • Biodiversity is a social issue!
  • Managing <- Modelling <- Monitoring
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SLIDE 4

Some principles of economic thinking

  • Economics is not business management!
  • Demand and supply: utility and profit maximization
  • Prices as a major indicator for scarcity
  • There is no such thing as a free lunch!
  • Opportunity costs / shadow prices
  • Relative prices and costs, substitution
  • Competition, trade, efficiency
  • Investment, technological change, growth
  • Regulation, rules, policy
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The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

Time Step: Object: Annual Grid Cell (PFT fractional areas)

Vegetation Population Dynamics

Tissue Turnover Tissue Allocation Light Competition Mortality Establishment PFT Environmental Constraints Disturbance (Fire)

Land Use Climate/ Weather

Time Step: Object: Daily Plant Functional Type (PFT) average individual Photosynthesis Maintenance Respiration Water balance

0.5

  • Information flow

Carbon & Water Fluxes Water fluxes only

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Cereals Oilseeds Pulses Sugar beets Crop yields Land & Water constraints

+200 mm

  • 200
  • 100

+100 CCSR ECHAM4

Climate change (GCM) LPJ (50x50 km grid)

Biophysical inputs

Income vs. Food consumption

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 GDP / Cap / Year Kcal / Cap / Day kcal_cap (105 countries, 1990/2000) kcal_cap (fitted values) kcal = 802 * gdp^(0.142327) [R^2 = 0.66]

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Billion

Low fertility, low mortality High fertility, high mortality Central fertility, central mortality (Lutz et al. 2001)

Demography Income and diet Food/Energy demand, production costs

Socioeconomic inputs

(1) MAgPIE – a global land use optimisation model

  • 2200 grid cells (3° resolution), 10 economic regions
  • 30 production activities (13 crops, livestock,

irrigation, bioenergy, land conversion)

  • rotational constraints
  • internal feed balances, international trade
  • (quasi-)endogenous technological change

Lotze-Campen et al., in press

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SLIDE 7

Income vs. Food consumption

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 GDP / Cap / Year Kcal / Cap / Day kcal_cap (105 countries, 1990/2000) kcal_cap (fitted values) kcal = 802 * gdp^(0.142327) [R^2 = 0.66]

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Billion

Low fertility, low mortality High fertility, high mortality Central fertility, central mortality (Lutz et al. 2001)

Cereals Oilseeds Pulses Sugar beets Crop yields Land & Water constraints

+200 mm

  • 200
  • 100

+100 CCSR ECHAM4

Climate change (GCM) Demography Income and diet Food/Energy demand, production costs LPJ (50x50 km grid)

Biophysical inputs Socioeconomic inputs Land use pattern

Lotze-Campen et al., in press

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SLIDE 8

Income vs. Food consumption

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 GDP / Cap / Year Kcal / Cap / Day kcal_cap (105 countries, 1990/2000) kcal_cap (fitted values) kcal = 802 * gdp^(0.142327) [R^2 = 0.66]

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Billion

Low fertility, low mortality High fertility, high mortality Central fertility, central mortality (Lutz et al. 2001)

Cereals Oilseeds Pulses Sugar beets Crop yields Land & Water constraints

+200 mm

  • 200
  • 100

+100 CCSR ECHAM4

Climate change (GCM) Demography Income and diet Food/Energy demand, production costs LPJ (50x50 km grid)

Biophysical inputs Socioeconomic inputs Shadow prices

Lotze-Campen et al., in press

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0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 World AFR CPA EUR FSU LAM MEA NAM PAO PAS SAS % per year FAO 1970-95 Baseline Low_wat_save Baseline+area

Income vs. Food consumption

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 GDP / Cap / Year Kcal / Cap / Day kcal_cap (105 countries, 1990/2000) kcal_cap (fitted values) kcal = 802 * gdp^(0.142327) [R^2 = 0.66]

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Billion

Low fertility, low mortality High fertility, high mortality Central fertility, central mortality (Lutz et al. 2001)

Cereals Oilseeds Pulses Sugar beets Crop yields Land & Water constraints

+200 mm

  • 200
  • 100

+100 CCSR ECHAM4

Climate change (GCM) Demography Income and diet Food/Energy demand, production costs LPJ (50x50 km grid)

Biophysical inputs Socioeconomic inputs

Required technical change until 2050

Lotze-Campen et al., in press

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Scenario: 100 EJ Bioenergy in 2050 Cropland expansion max 250 mio. ha (~18%)

Lotze-Campen et al., preliminary results

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Scenario: 100 EJ Bioenergy in 2050 No cropland expansion

Lotze-Campen et al., preliminary results

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Policy and decision- making Public discourse and communication

Case studies (Regional nodes) Issues (Thematic nodes) Purpose (Synthesis nodes)

Great plains Ama- zonia Kala- hari Sahel Danube river Aral sea Yellow river Indonesia forest Insitutions Resource use Biodiversity Values Economy

Global-scale research and integration Lotze-Campen/Reusswig/Stoll-Kleemann, GAIA 2008

A conceptual structure of a Sustainability Geoscope

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Geoscope implementation: Building upon the existing World Network of Biosphere Reserves and Biosphere Reserve Integrated Monitoring (BRIM)

Lotze-Campen/Reusswig/Stoll-Kleemann, GAIA 2008

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Source: UNESCO MAB

  • Biosphere Reserves combine nature conservation and land use
  • Mission: BRs are experimental sites for sustainable development
  • An initial infrastructure for Biosphere Integrated socio-ecological

Monitoring (BRIM) already exists

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Land use management

  • Settlement/infrastructure, forest, cropland, pasture,

unused/protected

  • From local to global
  • Instruments: taxes, subsidies, tradeable permits,

regulations and planning

  • Global public goods: international compensation
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Our head is round – so that our thinking can change directions.

(Francis Picabia)

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Challenges in large-scale land-use modelling

  • Linking monetary and biophysical processes, flows and data
  • Different thematic scales (e.g. vegetable oil vs. physiologically

different oil crops)

  • Different temporal scales (meaning of "long-term" vs. "short-term" in

biophysical models and economic models)

  • Different spatial scales (point observations vs. spatial grids vs.

polygons/administrative units)

  • The treatment of technological change (exogenous vs. endogenous)
  • Optimisation mode in economics vs. time-step mode in natural science
  • Recursive dynamics vs. intertemporal optimisation
  • The treatment of human behaviour, values, institutions
  • Availability of compatible data across scales and themes
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Key messages

Research

  • Sustainable bioenergy production in 2050: ~50-150 ExaJoule?
  • Land availability for agricultural expansion (pasture?)
  • Role of technological change (ag. production, energy conversion)
  • Role of international trade
  • Climate change and yields (CO2 fertilization?)
  • Food demand patterns?

Policy

  • Potential of bioenergy for rural development
  • Critical assessment of bioenergy subsidies (ag. policy, climate policy)
  • Global land use management (land use planning, land rights)
  • Forests/Biodiversity as a global common good
  • Water management and pricing
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(3) Sustainability Geoscope: a concept for monitoring global change and sustainable development

Goals: Improve the empirical base for Global Change research and Sustainability Science Develop a "Macroscope" for monitoring and representing crucial parts and processes of the Earth System in the Anthropocene Concept: A global framework for comparative regional case studies on human actions affecting sustainability Regional nodes covering hot-spots of human-nature interactions Thematic nodes covering key research issues Multiple thematic nodes to be integrated at each regional node Multiple regional nodes to be covered by each thematic node

Lucht and Jaeger, NKGCF 2001; Lotze-Campen et al. GAIA 2002, 2008

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Lotze-Campen et al., preliminary results

Required rates of technical change in agriculture (2005-2055)

  • Baseline plus various biofuel scenarios -

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

World AFR CPA EUR FSU LAM MEA NAM PAO PAS SAS

% per year

FAO 1970-95 Baseline Biof 100EJ Biof + area Biof + trade