Model Presentation to IPWEA 7 November 2014 PNATM Presentation - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Palmerston North Area Traffic Model Presentation to IPWEA 7 November 2014

PNATM – Presentation Overview  Model Scope and type  Data collected  The model  Forecasting inputs  Applications

PNCC Aims and Objectives  Existing model was out of date and used obsolete software  Greater temporal and spatial resolution required  Uses the opportunity of the census data collection to fully reflect the changing demography of the district (incorporating 2012 boundary changes)  Model to be used for: ─ Forward planning of the road network ─ District plan reviews ─ Specific projects eg Food HQ  Model software to be flexible and widely used within NZ and overseas  Desire for outputs that could be presented to Councillors etc

PNCC Procurement Process  Budget of $400k approved by Council  Independent Traffic Consultant engaged to assist in drafting the RFP and to assist in evaluating proposals  Work not subsidised by NZTA, however procurement process aligned closely with NZTA Procurement Manual  Procurement method was a Purchaser Nominated Price  Independent Traffic Consultant retained by Council as Peer Reviewer throughout duration of contract

Scope – Physical Extent

Scope – Time Periods  Old model only represented weekday PM Peak  New model represents the following weekday time periods: ─ AM Peak: 2-hour weekday demand period of 7:30-9:30am with a peak-hour of 8:00-9:00am ─ PM Peak: 2-hour weekday demand period of 4:00-6:00pm with a peak-hour of 4:30-5:30pm ─ Interpeak: 6½ demand period of 9:30am-4:00pm with a peak-hour of 12:00-1:00pm  Base year = 2013  Future years = 2021, 2031 and 2041

Scope - Model Type  Traditional ‘3 - Step’ Traffic Model: ─ Trip generation (24-hr) ─ Trip Distribution (24-hr) ─ Trip Assignment (peaks)  Fully ‘synthetic’  16-category Household Structure Model  7 trip purposes  Static ‘macro’ assignment  Average weekday AM, PM, Interpeak and Daily  Implemented in CUBE(VOYAGER)

Data Collection  Census 2013 data ─ Land use data – population, households and employment ─ Census JTW for calibrating trip distribution model  Demographic information – school/college role  Count data – calibration/validation ─ PNCC counts ─ MDC/NZ Transport agency counts ─ Bespoke counts at specific locations  PNCC travel time data – travel time validation  SCATS Signal time data – network coding  Horizons bus routes and patronage

Count sites

Bluetooth Data Capture

Bluetooth Data – Facts and Figures  Data collected in April 2014 ─ Five day survey ─ 8 data collection locations ─ 15,000 individual journeys ─ 98 route permutations  17% sample size  Cost effective alternative to ANPR  First model in NZ to use Bluetooth as a data collection methodology  Used for identifying external to external movements, key journey times and external to internal zone movements

Fleet GPS data capture  Commercial GPS data used for: ─ HCV matrix and ─ Check of external-external movements ─ Selected travel times for validation  Uses a range of different sources of commercial vehicle data, but largely derived from eRUC  Data sampled over one month (March 2013)  Sample size = c40% of HCVs, much lower proportion of LCVs and cars  First traffic model in NZ to use fleet GPS data

The Model

Output – Traffic Flow

Output – Speed Drop (Link)

Output – Intersection Flow & Delay Intersection Flow Intersection Delay

Model Calibration and Validation  Calibration = fit model to data  Validation = check output against independent data  Key Calibration/Validation checks ─ Screenline vehicle flow totals (by period and direction) ─ Individual link vehicle flow totals by period and direction ─ HCV flows at key locations. ─ Turning flows at key junctions ─ Travel times on key routes ─ Origin/destination patterns  Model validates well against industry criteria

Forecasting  Land use changes ─ Development areas ─ Regional economic growth (population and employment) ─ Changes to educational roles  Trip making changes ─ Modal shift ─ Changes to trip rates ─ Travel Demand Management  Network changes ─ New links ─ Intersection modifications

Growth Projections  Average annual population growth rates for Palmerston North City (based on residential growth strategy) ─ Low growth = 0.2% per annum to 2031 ─ Medium growth = 0.7% per annum to 2031 ─ High growth = 1.2% per annum to 2031  Modeling assumes medium growth scenario  Reductions in population in surrounding rural areas  1.1% growth in number of households to 2031 (corresponding drop in average household size)  Growth is focussed on a couple of key areas (plus a small amount of infill spread across the city)

Growth Areas North East Fielding Industrial Zone City West Whakarongo Longburn

Model Applications and Next Steps  Forecasting (2021, 2031 and 2041)  Network and land use changes  Applications ─ Area wide population and employment changes ─ Network changes (for example, second Manawatu river crossing) ─ Policy changes ─ Localised land use changes (new subdivisions, supermarkets etc)  Lessons learnt regarding use of novel technology to be shared with the wider industry (NZMUGS)