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migration and urbanization: regional perspectives: Migration and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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UNITED NATIONS EXPERT GROUP MEETING ON SUSTAINABLE CITIES, HUMAN MOBILITY AND INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, UN, New York 7-8 September 2017 Patterns and drivers of trends in migration

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Patterns and drivers of trends in migration and urbanization: regional perspectives: Migration and Cities in Latin America and the Caribbean

Jorge Rodriguez Vignoli CELADE (Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre)-Population Division of ECLAC (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) UNITED NATIONS EXPERT GROUP MEETING ON SUSTAINABLE CITIES, HUMAN MOBILITY AND INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, UN, New York 7-8 September 2017

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TOPICS

  • Urbanization and migration
  • National Settlement System: continuity and change
  • Migration and cities: new evidence and findings on

population growth, redistribution and composition effects

  • An emerging issue: international migration
  • Final remarks
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URBANIZATION AND MIGRATION

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10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

WORLD AFRICA ASIA EUROPE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Caribbean Central America South America NORTHERN AMERICA OCEANIA

URBANIZATION CONTINUES. THE REGION IS THE MOST URBANIZED AMONG THE DEVELOPING REGIONS

Source: United Nations, 2015; WUP, 2015

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  • Population transfer (including internal migration) from

rural to urban areas is the urbanization engine

  • There are historical

drivers behind rural to urban migration

  • Persistent Urban-Rural gap
  • In the short term, there are little chances for a rural (or

even small cities) demographic recovery. In LAC region, small is not beautiful yet.

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NATURAL INCREASE: RURAL HAS BEEN FASTER THAN URBAN DURING THE PAST FIFTY YEARS

Source: Jedwab, R., L. Christiaensen y M. Gindelsky (2017), Demography, urbanization and development: Rural push, urban pull and …urban push?, Journal of Urban Economics 98: 6–16J Figures 3 y 4.

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RURAL TO URBAN POPULATION TRANFER STILL CONTINUES

Rural to Urban Population Transfer (millions) 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 Male Female Male Female Male Female

7.86 8.89 7.88 9,24 5.23 6.79

Relative weight of rural to urban population transfer

  • n urban growth

1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 Male Female Male Female Male Female

36.8 37.5 32.6 33.7 22.7 25.2

Source: Rodriguez 2017 (forthcoming), author’s own calculations Note: Countries included: Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Uruguay and (Bol. Rep.) Venezuela

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RURAL TO URBAN MIGRATION STILL CONTINUES

Census round

RURAL (counties without cities of 20 thousand or more inhabitants) net migration RURAL (counties with cities of 20 thousand or more inhabitants) net migration rate (for thousand)

2010

  • 684,186
  • 1.7

2000

  • 1,233,713
  • 3.7

Source: Technical note, table 1

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PERSISTENT RURAL-URBAN INEQUALITIES

Latin America and the Caribbean: percentage of poverty by residence zone and rural to urban poverty ratio

Source: CepalStat(http://estadisticas.cepal.org/cepalstat/WEB_CEPALSTAT/estadisticasIndicadores.asp?idioma=e)

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 1980 1986 1990 1994 1997 1999 2002 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Percentage of poverty National Urban Rural Rural/Urban ratio

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NATIONAL SETTLEMENT SYSTEM: CONTINUITY AND CHANGE

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  • Growing number of cities: does it mean a

more decentralized system of cities?

  • Outstanding concentration in metropolis
  • Doubts

about the de-concentration process in LAC-NSS

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MORE CITIES: DOES IT MEAN A MORE DECENTRALIZED SYSTEM OF CITIES?

Latin America and the Caribbean: number of cities (localities with 20,000 or more inhabitants) by city size category, 1950-2010

City size categories

Census Round 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1 millIion or more

5 7 13 21 28 39 47

500,000-999,999

3 9 15 20 34 40 44

100,000-499,999

41 55 103 152 176 239 283

50,000-99,999

49 74 115 162 232 295 324

20,000- 49,999

158 223 341 479 663 888 1041

Total

256 368 587 834 1 133 1 501 1 739

Source: DEPUALC database (http://celade.cepal.org/bdcelade/depualc/) Note 1. Countries included: Argentina, (Plur.Est.) Bolivia (EP), Brazil, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Uruguay and (Bol. Rep) Venezuela Note 2: There were 1963 cities summing up the 20 countries with data from 2000 census round (ECLAC, 2012; DEPUALC database). According 2010 census round (only 11 countries with available data), there were 1739 (almost sure there would be more ROUGHLY 2500 cities if the 20 countries had their census data available)

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LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: URBANIZATION BASED ON METROPOLIS

Regional settlement system: population distribution (in percentage of the total population) by size category of settlements

Size categories

  • f settlement

Census Round 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1 millIion or more

12.9 16.9 22.3 28.5 31.1 33.7 36.3

500,000-999,999

1.7 4.3 4.9 5.3 7.4 7.5 7.4

100,000-499,999

7.8 8.4 10.2 11.6 12.3 13.3 13.7

50,000-99,999

3.0 3.5 3.9 4.2 5.4 5.5 5.3

20,000- 49,999

4.2 4.8 5.1 6.2 6.7 7.1 7.6

Subtotal 20,000 and more

29.5 37.9 46.4 55.7 62.9 67.0 70.4

2, 000-19,999

10.4 10.5 10.9 12.6 11.6 11.8 10.1

Subtotal 2,000 and more

39.9 48.4 57.3 68.4 74.5 78.8 80.5

Urban percentage

42.4 51.0 59.4 68.6 74.7 79.0 81.5

Source: DEPUALC database (http://celade.cepal.org/bdcelade/depualc/) Note 1. Countries included: Argentina, (Plur.Est.) Bolivia (EP), Brazil, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Uruguay and (Bol. Rep) Venezuela

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MIGRATION AND CITIES: NEW EVIDENCE AND FINDINGS ON POPULATION GROWTH, REDISTRIBUTION AND COMPOSITION EFFECTS

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  • How is internal migration influencing population growth

and redistribution across the system of cities?

✓ Large cities ✓ Intermediate cities ✓ Bottom of National Settlement System: rural areas and small cities

  • A paradox: most of the cities are repulsion centers (Why?)
  • New data (and methods) about population composition

effect: the case of age structure and the proportion of young people

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HOW IS INTERNAL MIGRATION INFLUENCING POPULATION GROWTH AND REDISTRIBUTION ACROSS THE SYSTEM OF CITIES?

Size categories

  • f human

settlement 2000 (migration time period: 2000-1995) 2010 (migration time period: 2010-2005) NET MIGRATION NET MIGRATION RATE (in thousands) NET MIGRATION NET MIGRATION RATE (in thousands)

1 million or more

886,985 1.8 199,988 0.3

500000-999999

453,368 3.6 350,449 2.6

100000-499999

518,038 2.5 519,073 2.0

50000-99999

  • 49,889
  • 0.5
  • 83,752
  • 0.8

20000-49999

  • 530,643
  • 3.7
  • 299,249
  • 1.7

Less than 20000

  • 44,145
  • 1.5
  • 2,324
  • 4.0

Rest

  • 1,233,713
  • 3.7
  • 684,186
  • 1.7

Total

0.0 0.0

Source: technical note, table 1 Note: for more details about category “less than 2,000”, please see technical note

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A SURPRISING FINDING: MOST OF THE CITIES ARE REPULSION CENTERS

Source: technical note Note: for more details about category “less than 2,000”, please see technical note 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

1 million or more 500000-999999 100000-499999 50000-99999 20000-49999 Less than 20000 Total 1 million or more 500000-999999 100000-499999 50000-99999 20000-49999 Less than 20000 Total 2000 2010

Number of cities with net in-migration Number of cities with net out-migration

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MIGRATION “REJUVENATES” BIG AND INTERMEDIATE CITIES, BUT IT HAS THE OPPOSITE EFFECT AMONG SMALL CITIES AND RURAL AREAS

  • 8.0
  • 6.0
  • 4.0
  • 2.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 1 million or more 500000-999999 100000-499999 50000-99999 20000-49999 Rest Plui.Nat. Est. of Bolivia, 2012 Brazil, 2010 Costa Rica, 2011 Ecuador, 2011 Dominican Republic, 2010 Honduras, 2013 Mexico, 2010 Panama, 2010

  • Bol. Rep. of Venezuela, 2011

Uruguay, 2011

Source: technical note, chart 5

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CITIES AND INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION

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Source: technical note Map 1

PERUVIAN MIGRANT POPULATION RESIDING IN GREATER SANTIAGO, 2002 CENSUS

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Source: technical note Map 2

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FINAL REMARKS

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Overall, urbanization, despite its challenges and risks, is friendly with 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development as well as New Urban Agenda Accomplishment of 2030 Agenda for SD and NUA seems to be facilitated by migration in large and intermediate cities However, internal migration could undermine the accomplishment of 2030 Agenda for SD and NUA International in-migration (refugees are still few) is increasing in several Latin American cities, mostly large cities, but it is still an issue that deserves much more research