Mid-latitude Cyclones and Winter Windstorms in a Changing Climate - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Mid-latitude Cyclones and Winter Windstorms in a Changing Climate - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Mid-latitude Cyclones and Winter Windstorms in a Changing Climate Spring Campus Berlin 2017 Research Workshop III: Climate Change in Cities. Mitigation, Adaptation Dr. Jens Grieger https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/ Institute of

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Spring Campus Berlin 2017

Research Workshop III: “Climate Change in Cities. Mitigation, Adaptation”

  • Dr. Jens Grieger

Institute of Meteorology Freie Universität Berlin

Mid-latitude Cyclones and Winter Windstorms in a Changing Climate

https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/

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March 28, 2017

Jens Grieger, FU Berlin Storms in a changing climate 2

  • Mid-latitude Cyclones
  • Winter Windstorms
  • Changing Climate

Outline

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Mid-latitude Cyclones

Extra-tropical cyclone: low pressure system

Source: http://www.ecmwf.int

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Mid-latitude Cyclones

Source: http://www.ecmwf.int Source: www.wetterpate.de

Names of high and low pressure Systems: www.wetterpate.de

Source: http://www.berliner-wetterkarte.de

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Winter wind storm

  • Wind storm related to extra-tropical cyclone
  • Low pressure system

– Balancing air masses – Wind

  • Further analysis

– Identification of cyclones and wind storms

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Jens Grieger, FU Berlin Storms in a changing climate 6

Daria‘s wind track exceedence of 98th perc.

  • f ERA-INT 10m wind speed

ERA-INTERIM SLP isobars exceedence of 98th perc.

  • f ERA-INT 10m wind speed

exceedence of 98th perc.

  • f ERA-INT 10m wind speed

10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM Daria‘s cyclone track

Example: Wind Storm Daria

Source: Tim Kruschke

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Example: Daria

10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

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Example: Daria

10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

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Example: Daria

10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

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Example: Daria

10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

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Example: Daria

10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

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Example: Daria

10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

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Example: Daria

10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

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Example: Daria

10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

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Example: Daria

10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

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Example: Daria

10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

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Example: Daria

10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

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Example: Daria

10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

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Example: Daria

10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

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Example: Daria

10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

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Example: Daria

10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

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Example: Daria

10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

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Example: Daria

10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

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Example: Daria

10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

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Example: Daria

10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

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Example: Daria

10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

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Jens Grieger, FU Berlin Storms in a changing climate 27 Source: Kruschke (2015)

Storm track density

  • Wind storm tracks

per winter season

  • Maximum at the

North Atlantic

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Impact of storms

Source: Munich Re (1999). Taken from Renggli (2011)

Example ensured loss [€] Kyrill: 2.8 billion Daria: 1.5 billion

Source: Aon Benfield

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Jens Grieger, FU Berlin Storms in a changing climate 29

Loss potential

  • Loss is function of

– Storm severity (Leckebusch et al.; 2008) – Population density (Donat et al.; 2011)

Population density Data source: CIESIN. Taken from (Donat et al. (2011)

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Climate change I

Source: Etling (1996) Source: IPCC AR5, Fig. 9.2

Cyclones: re-distribution of energy

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Climate change II

Source: IPCC AR5, Fig. 12.10 Source: Zappa et al. (2013)

Temperature Cyclones

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Change of Strong cyclones

Source: Zappa et al. (2013)

  • Higher wind speed

in Northern Europe

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Change of loss potential

Source: Donat et al. (2013)

  • Loss increase
  • High variability of

different climate models

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Jens Grieger, FU Berlin Storms in a changing climate 34

Summary

  • „Intense winter storms constitute one of the most

important natural hazards affecting Central Europe“ (Donat et al.; 2010)

  • Loss is function of storm severity and population

density (Donat et al.; 2011)

  • Future simulations show

– less cyclones (Zappa et al.; 2013) – more strong ones, higher wind speed over Europe

(Zappa et al.; 2013)

– higher loss potentials in European region (Donat et al.;

2013)