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How DGMET Dealt with Tropical Cyclone Mekunu ( 22 27 May 2018) Directorate General of Meteorology Public Authority for Civil Aviation Tropical cyclones Over Oman History and Statistics Tropical cyclones Over Oman History and Statistics 2

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How DGMET Dealt with Tropical Cyclone Mekunu (22 ̶ 27 May 2018)

Directorate General of Meteorology Public Authority for Civil Aviation

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SLIDE 2

Tropical cyclones Over Oman History and Statistics

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Tropical cyclones Over Oman History and Statistics

Global distribution of the tropical cyclones

2

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SLIDE 4

Tropical cyclones Over Oman History and Statistics

  • Once every 3 year a tropical cyclone

will affect Oman directly or indirectly.

  • Once every 5 year a tropical cyclone

will make landfall over Oman territory.

  • 30 cases affected Oman since 1945

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec No of Storms

Storms over Arabian Sea and those affected Oman Period : 1945- 2018

  • No. of Arabian Sea storms
  • No. of storms affected Oman (Previous Spreedsheet)
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SLIDE 5

TC Gonu Legacy

  • Loss of lives
  • Economic loss

“cause and effect”

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What Are the Changes Since Gonu DGMET Development Process

GONU PHET MEKUNU Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 1 Human Resources ? Facilities? DGMET Systems?

Changes at DGMET between TC Gonu and Mekunu

National Multi-Hazard Early Warning Centre (NEWC) Weather Radar Network 2015

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2018 FUTURE

124 (2007) - 231 (2017)

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Second Generation weather Satellite/ 1st February 2017

Meteosat-8, 41.5E Meteosat-11, 0

Changes at DGMET Between TC Gonu and Mekunu

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SLIDE 8

Changes at DGMET between TC Gonu and Mekunu

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DGMET provides weather advisories and warnings through the National Multi- Hazard Early Warning Centre (NEWC). DGMET follows an operating manual of NEWC to administrate natural hazards events including tropical cyclones. NEWC Mission : provide early warning information to decision makers and the public about natural events that threaten lives and properties

Changes at DGMET between TC Gonu and Mekunu

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SLIDE 10

Mekunu Timeline

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SLIDE 11

8 May

  • GFS and ECMWF outlook forecasted

a tropical storm will develop on 20 May and move towards Oman

  • Duty forecasters started to call for

weather briefing

  • Revising NEWC unified operating

manual

  • Checking DGMET observing and

forecasting systems

  • Preparing the work environment

for a large number of people to work around the clock :meteorologist, engineers and media workers... etc

Mekunu Timeline

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SLIDE 12

THE STORM BUILDS/Tropical Depression

  • DGMET/Report NO.1/ 21 May, 0900UTC
  • Cyclogenesis within Area A
  • 8.0°N and 58.4°E
  • Wind speed of 17-27 kt

Mekunu Timeline

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SLIDE 13

Mekunu Timeline

8 May

  • GFS and ECMWF forecast

tropical storm will develop and move towards Oman

  • Duty forecasters started

to call for weather briefing

  • Revising NEWC unified operating

manual

  • Checking DGMET observing and

forecasting systems

  • Preparing the work environment for

a large number of people to work around the clock :meteorologist, engineers and media workers

21 May

11:00 UTC DGMET issued the first weather repot about a tropical depression developed in west Arabian Sea

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SLIDE 14

DEEP DEPRESSION

  • DGMET/22 May,0600UTC
  • Wind speed of 27-32 kt

Mekunu Timeline

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SLIDE 15

8 May

  • GFS and ECMWF forecast

tropical storm will develop and move towards Oman

  • Duty forecasters started

to call for weather briefing

  • Revising NEWC unified operating

manual

  • Checking DGMET observing and

forecasting systems

  • Preparing the work environment for

a large number of people to work around the clock :meteorologist, engineers and media workers

21 May

11:00 UTC DGMET issued the first weather repot about a tropical depression developed in west Arabian Sea

22 May

06:00 UTC DGMET upgrades the system to deep depression 07:00 UTC weather briefing for NCCD members

Mekunu Timeline

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TROPICAL STORM

  • DGMET/Bulletin NO.1/22 May, 1200 UTC
  • Wind speed : 35- 40 kt.
  • 9.5°N, 57°E; 900 km from Salalah
  • A speed of 12 km/hr

RSMC named the system Mekunu at 1500UTC

Mekunu Timeline

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SLIDE 17

8 May

  • GFS and ECMWF forecast

tropical storm will develop and move towards Oman

  • Duty forecasters started

to call for weather briefing

  • Revising NEWC unified operating

manual

  • Checking DGMET observing and

forecasting systems

  • Preparing the work environment for

a large number of people to work around the clock :meteorologist, engineers and media workers

21 May

11:00 UTC DGMET issued the first weather repot about a tropical depression developed in west Arabian Sea

22 May

06:00 UTC DGMET upgrades the system to deep depression 07:00 UTC weather briefing for NCCD members 12:00 UTC DGMET issues the first bulletin and the system is upgraded to tropical storm 15:00 UTC NCCD declared a state of emergency

Mekunu Timeline

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SLIDE 18

CATEGORY-1 TROPICAL CYCLONE

  • DGMET/Alert NO.1/23 May,1200 UTC
  • 10-meters wind speed 65 - 75 kt

@ @ NASA 2018-05-23 0953UTC

Mekunu Timeline

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SLIDE 19

8 May

  • GFS and ECMWF forecast

tropical storm will develop and move towards Oman

  • Duty forecasters started

to call for weather briefing

  • Revising NEWC unified operating

manual

  • Checking DGMET observing and

forecasting systems

  • Preparing the work environment for

a large number of people to work around the clock :meteorologist, engineers and media workers

21 May

11:00 UTC DGMET issues the first weather report and upgrades the system to a tropical depression

22 May

06:00 UTC DGMET upgrades the system to deep depression 07:00 UTC weather briefing for NCCD members 07:00 UTC NCCD declares a state of emergency 12:00 UTC DGMET issues the first bulletin and the system is upgraded to tropical storm

23 May

11:00 UTC Civil defense start evacuation of people living in low lying areas 12:00 UTC DGMET raises the classification to a category-1 tropical cyclone

Mekunu Timeline

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WEAKNING

  • During 24 May/night and 25 May/ early

morning

  • A slight intrusion of dry air mass

Mekunu Timeline

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8 May

  • GFS and ECMWF forecast

tropical storm will develop and move towards Oman

  • Duty forecasters started

to call for weather briefing

  • Revising NEWC unified operating

manual

  • Checking DGMET observing and

forecasting systems

  • Preparing the work environment for

a large number of people to work around the clock :meteorologist, engineers and media workers

21 May

11:00 UTC DGMET issues the first weather report and upgrades the system to a tropical depression

22 May

06:00 UTC DGMET upgrades the system to deep depression 07:00 UTC weather briefing for NCCD members 07:00 UTC NCCD declares a state

  • f emergency

12:00 UTC DGMET issues the first bulletin and the system is upgraded to tropical storm

23 May

11:00 UTC Civil defense start evacuation of people living in Alhaliniat island 12:00 UTC DGMET raises the classification to a category-1 tropical cyclone

24 May

11:00 UTC Civil defense start evacuation of people living in low lying areas 11:00 UTC TV launches 24 hour live coverage for the event

Mekunu Timeline

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Mekunu Timeline

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INTENSIFIYINY 10 hours before landfall CATEGORY-2

  • DGMET/Warning NO.5/ 25 May, 0800UTC
  • Wind speed : 85-90 kt.
  • 150 km away from Salalah

Mekunu Timeline

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SLIDE 24

8 May

  • GFS and ECMWF forecast

tropical storm will develop and move towards Oman

  • Duty forecasters started

to call for weather briefing

  • Revising NEWC unified operating

manual

  • Checking DGMET observing and

forecasting systems

  • Preparing the work environment for

a large number of people to work around the clock :meteorologist, engineers and media workers

21 May

11:00 UTC DGMET issues the first weather report and upgrades the system to a tropical depression

22 May

06:00 UTC DGMET upgrades the system to deep depression 07:00 UTC weather briefing for NCCD members 07:00 UTC NCCD declares a state

  • f emergency

12:00 UTC DGMET issues the first bulletin and the system is upgraded to tropical storm

23 May

11:00 UTC Civil defense start evacuation of people living in Alhaliniat island 12:00 UTC DGMET raises the classification to a category-1 tropical cyclone

24 May

11:00 UTC Civil defense start evacuation of people living in low lying areas 11:00 UTC TV launches 24 hour live coverage for the event

25 May

08:00 UTC DGMET upgraded the system to Category-2 ,150 km away from Salalah 20:00 UTC DGMET declares Mekunu landfall as a category-1

Mekunu Timeline

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Landfall Southwest of Salalah

  • DGMET/Warning NO.7/ 25 May, 2000 UTC
  • 45 km southwest Salalah
  • Category 1 Tropical Cyclone

Sustained 10-minutes wind 70 to 80 kt

  • Second strongest cyclone made landfall over Oman

Mekunu Timeline

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SLIDE 26

DISSIPATION

  • DGMET/Warning 9/ 26 May, 0800 UTC
  • Downgraded Mekunu to Deep Depression
  • DGMET/ Ending Statement/ 26May/1800UTC

Mekunu Timeline

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SLIDE 27

8 May

  • GFS and ECMWF forecast

tropical storm will develop and move towards Oman

  • Duty forecasters started

to call for weather briefing

  • Revising NEWC unified operating

manual

  • Checking DGMET observing and

forecasting systems

  • Preparing the work environment for

a large number of people to work around the clock :meteorologist, engineers and media workers

21 May

11:00 UTC DGMET issues the first weather report and upgrades the system to a tropical depression

22 May

06:00 UTC DGMET upgrades the system to deep depression 07:00 UTC weather briefing for NCCD members 07:00 UTC NCCD declares a state

  • f emergency

12:00 UTC DGMET issues the first bulletin and the system is upgraded to tropical storm

23 May

11:00 UTC Civil defense start evacuation of people living in Alhaliniat island 12:00 UTC DGMET raises the classification to a category-1 tropical cyclone

24 May

11:00 UTC Civil defense start evacuation of people living in low lying areas 11:00 UTC TV launches 24 hour live coverage for the event

25 May

08:00 UTC DGMET upgraded the system to Category-2 ,150 km away from Salalah 20:00 UTC DGMET declares Mekunu landfall as a category-1

26 May

08:00 UTC DGMET downgraded the system to deep depression 18:00 UTC DGMET issues ending statement

Mekunu Timeline

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SLIDE 28

8 May

  • GFS and ECMWF forecast

tropical storm will develop and move towards Oman

  • Duty forecasters started

to call for weather briefing

  • Revising NEWC unified
  • perating manual
  • Checking DGMET observing and

forecasting systems

  • Preparing the work environment

for a large number of people to work around the clock :meteorologist, engineers and media workers

21 May

11:00 UTC DGMET issues the first weather report and upgrades the system to a tropical depression

22 May

06:00 UTC DGMET upgrades the system to deep depression 07:00 UTC weather briefing for NCCD members 07:00 UTC NCCD declares a state of emergency 12:00 UTC DGMET issues the first bulletin and the system is upgraded to tropical storm

23 May

11:00 UTC Civil defense start evacuation of people living in Alhaliniat island 12:00 UTC DGMET raises the classification to a category-1 tropical cyclone

24 May

11:00 UTC Civil defense start evacuation of people living in low lying areas 11:00 UTC TV launches 24 hour live coverage for the event

25 May

08:00 UTC DGMET upgraded the system to Category-2 ,150 km away from Salalah 20:00 UTC DGMET declares Mekunu landfall as a category-1

26 May

08:00 UTC DGMET downgraded the system to deep depression 18:00 UTC DGMET issues ending statement

  • Documentation
  • Analysis Statistics Data
  • Research

Mekunu Timeline

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Type of weather advisory Number Issued for Mekunu The progress of the weather case update hours Report زيزقت 1 Issued in case of tropical depression formation in Arabian Sea (17-27 kt). 48 Bulletin راعشإ 1 Issued if the case is 72 prior the direct affection to Oman’s coasts. 24 Alert راذنإ 2 Issued if the case is 48 prior the direct affection to Oman’s coasts. 12 Warning زيذحت 10 Issued if the case is 24 prior the direct affection to Oman’s coasts. 6 Ending Statement ةلاحلا ءاهنإ راعشإ 1 Issued if the end of the direct effect of the case is confirmed

DGMET Weather Advisories for Mekunu ​

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DGMET’s twitter account (@OmanMeteorology) has twitted 88 tweets about Mekunu and got 8 million comments PACA twitter account (@PACAOMAN) has twitted 75 tweets and got 7.1 million comments. These are relatively high numbers, given that Oman population is only 4.6 million (Oman NCSI, 2018) and the Dhofar Governorate population is less than 0.5 million.

DGMET Weather Advisories for Mekunu ​

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Formed Casualties 4 people Damage (Insurance claims) $400 million Maximum wind speed 90 kt Minimum pressure 970 hPa Landfall category Category 1 (DGMET) Maximum Rainfall Amount 688 mm Wave Height 13.2 meter Maximum Inundation Depth 8 meter Mekunu Impact on Oman ​

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Mekunu Track

Mekunu Impact on Oman ​

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Affected Area Mekunu Impact on Oman ​

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Mekunu Impact on Oman ​

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Mekunu Impact on Oman ​ Water Resources Rain Gauges DGMET Weather Stations

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Mekunu Impact on Oman ​ Radar Max wind 105 kt Station Max wind 77 kt

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Mekunu Impact on Oman ​

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Mekunu -Lessons learned

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Lesson 1:

Climatology helps but each cyclone is unique , Consider that the models usually good if they agree in track and wind.

Intensification before landfall during 25 May 2018 few hours before landfall. Rossby wave?

Few Lessons learned from Mekunu

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Lessons learned from Mekunu Lesson 2 :

Mountain wind speed may create confusion in classifying TCs. DGMET : Category 1 RSMC - India: ESCS ادج ةديدش ةيرادم ةفصاع JTWC : Category 3

Station Max wind 77 kt Radar Max wind 105 kt

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Lesson 3:

Standardising TC Classification, became a critical issue in social media era

Lessons learned from Mekunu

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Lesson 4: Introduce High-quality graphics in weather advisories

  • Necessary to align with the current trend to reach public attention and awareness

through the social media where high quality and easy to use graphics find its way effectively.

  • For track forecast, area of maximum wind and precipitation

Lessons learned from Mekunu

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Lesson 5:

Rainfall measurements quality during gale winds require assessment and comprehensive investigation.

Radar Tipping Bucket Rain Gauges Rainfall distribution

Lessons learned from Mekunu

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Lessons learned from Mekunu

  • Vibration problem of the Tipping Bucket Rain Gauge
  • Horizontal shift of rainfall below radar sight

Lesson 5:

Rainfall measurements quality during gale winds require assessment and comprehensive investigation.

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SLIDE 45

Push toward global TC categorization and standardization Improve DGMET Observation System Exploit the TC Satellite products TC

  • n job training and

experts hosting Review and Enhance DGMET Manual of Standards Improve work efficiency and quality via a Quality Management System

MEKUNU Mekunu Upcoming Corrective and Preventive Actions

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Thank You !

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Based on 20181009_00 for 20181014_00

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21 May/09

Report NO.1

22 May/12 23 May/00 24 May/00

Warning NO.1

Bulletin NO.1

Alert NO.1 Alert NO.2

24 May/08 24 May/20

Warning NO.3

25 May/02

Warning NO.4 Warning NO.5 Warning NO.2

24 May/14

Warning NO.6 Warning NO.7 Warning NO.8 Warning NO.9 Warning NO.10 Ending Statement

25 May/14 25 May/20 26 May/02 26 May/08 26 May/18 25 May/14 25 May/08

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لبقراصعأ ونوج

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دعبراصعأ ونوج

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DEVELOPMENT TO TROPICAL STORM

Mekunu Timeline

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The time line of Mekunu Tropical cyclone/ Tropical cyclone Landfall ​

Mekunu Timeline