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Mesothelioma incidence modeling and forecasting 2014 Casualty Loss - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Draft--Preliminary work product Mesothelioma incidence modeling and forecasting 2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar Jorge Gallardo-Garcia, PhD September 15, 2014 Draft--Preliminary work product 2 Mesothelioma incidence has remained relatively

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Draft--Preliminary work product

Mesothelioma incidence modeling and forecasting

2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar Jorge Gallardo-Garcia, PhD

September 15, 2014

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Draft--Preliminary work product

Mesothelioma incidence has remained relatively constant in the last several years

September 15, 2014 2

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048 2051 2054 2057 SEER

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Draft--Preliminary work product

However, the typical incidence models have predicted a declining asbestos-related diagnoses

September 15, 2014 3

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048 2051 2054 2057 Nicholson/KPMG-style

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Draft--Preliminary work product

There has been ample literature attempting to estimate the future number

  • f mesotheliomas in the US population
  • Higginson (1980)
  • Enterline (1981)
  • Peto et al (1981)
  • Nicholson et al (1981, 1982)
  • Walker et al (1983)
  • Lilienfeld et al (1988)
  • KPMG (1992)
  • Stallard (2001)
  • Stallard et al (2004)
  • Though these models had different approaches for estimating the

future mesothelioma incidence and resulted in different levels of future counts, all had a common assumption:

 Either all mesotheliomas are asbestos related or all mesotheliomas were generated by the same process

September 15, 2014 4

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Draft--Preliminary work product

Models that assume that all mesothelioma is caused by asbestos do not fit the data well

September 15, 2014 5

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048 2051 2054 2057 SEER Nicholson/KPMG-style

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Draft--Preliminary work product

Scientific literature has studied whether asbestos is the only cause of mesothelioma

  • Studies have estimated that a significant portion of mesothelioma

diagnoses are not related to asbestos exposure above background levels

  • Pleural mesothelioma: 20%-50% male and 70%-80% female
  • Peritoneal mesothelioma: 70%-85% male and female
  • See, for instance
  • Attanoos, R. L. and Timothy C. Allen (2014), Advances in surgical

pathology, Lippincott Williams & Wilkins

  • Carbone, M. et al (2012), “Malignant Mesothelioma: Facts, Myths and

Hypotheses,” Journal of Cellular Physiology, 227(1)

  • Moolgavkar, S. H. et al (2009), “Pleural and peritoneal mesotheliomas

in SEER: age effects and temporal trends, 1973-2005,” Cancer Causes Control, 20

September 15, 2014 6

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Draft--Preliminary work product

In fact, there may be several different factors that contribute to mesothelioma incidence other than any asbestos products exposure

  • Naturally-occurring asbestos in the environment
  • Non-asbestos fibers and/or chemicals
  • Fibrous Zeolite (Erionite)
  • Fluoro-edenite
  • Refractory ceramic fibers
  • Carbon nanotubes
  • Other organic fibers
  • Radiation
  • Spontaneous or idiopathic
  • Genetics
  • SV40 virus in vaccines

September 15, 2014 7

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Draft--Preliminary work product

Therefore, a model that tries to estimate the number of mesotheliomas in the population should account for its potential sources

  • The Bates White incidence model considers that mesothelioma

diagnoses can be cause by

  • Exposure to asbestos-containing products
  • Other sources, collectively referred to as background
  • The model jointly estimates a
  • Nicholson/KPMG-style occupational-based model
  • A model of cancer generation in the general population based on age,

gender, and population size

  • The estimation routine uses the scientific observation that most

female mesothelioma diagnoses are not related to exposure to asbestos products

September 15, 2014 8

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Draft--Preliminary work product

Bates White’s statistical model can explain the difference between the typical models and the data

September 15, 2014 9

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048 2051 2054 2057 SEER Related to asbestos products exposure Other causes Total incidence

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Draft--Preliminary work product

Theoretically, the asbestos litigation focus should be only on diagnoses caused by asbestos products exposure and in how the exposure occurred

September 15, 2014 10

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048 2051 2054 2057 Related to asbestos products exposure (total) Construction industries Shipyard industries Other industries and occupations

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Draft--Preliminary work product

Focusing on the asbestos litigation: historically, U.S. mesothelioma tort filings by quarter were driven by epidemiology

11 Source: Bates White claimant database

100 200 300 400 500 600 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Number of claims Filing quarter

September 15, 2014

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Draft--Preliminary work product

Non-malignant filings were driven by economics: mass recruitment led to a surge that subsequently collapsed

12 Source: Bates White claimant database

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Number of claims Filing quarter

September 15, 2014

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Draft--Preliminary work product

And lung and other cancer tort filings basically followed the non-malignant claims as their surge was mostly a byproduct of mass recruitment

13 Source: Bates White claimant database

250 500 750 1,000 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Number of claims Filing quarter Lung Cancer Other Cancer

September 15, 2014

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Draft--Preliminary work product

How will a higher proportion of mesothelioma diagnoses unrelated to asbestos products exposure affect asbestos litigation?

  • How will causation in mesothelioma cases play a role in future

trials?

  • How will the way in which mesothelioma claims are pursued by

plaintiff firms and defended be affected?

  • How will the asbestos litigation system react to a growing portion
  • f mesothelioma diagnoses with tenuous or no linkage to

asbestos-containing products’ exposure?

  • How will this issue affect the number of mesothelioma claims filed,

the number of claims settled, and settlement amounts in the tort system?

September 15, 2014 14

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Draft--Preliminary work product

Mesothelioma incidence modeling and forecasting

2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar Jorge Gallardo-Garcia, PhD

September 15, 2014