May 2020 Employment Report Doug Walls, Labor Market Information - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

June 18, 2020

May 2020 Employment Report

Doug Walls, Labor Market Information Director

Types of Employment Data Analyzed

Survey of Businesses

Current Employment Statistics

• Employment and wage estimates by

industry

• Measures jobs not number of people

employed

• Excludes most agriculture, self-

employed, family, military and rail workers

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Survey of Households

Local Area Unemployment Statistics

• Unemployment, employment and

labor force levels by geographic region

• Measures people employed not

number of jobs

• Excludes individuals not in the labor

force

Types of Analysis Discussed

Month-Over-Month

• Numeric/Percentage Change
• Issue: Large influence of seasonal

factors

• Main Use: Compare changes to

previous years in the same month – comparison of previous years point-in- time estimates

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Year-Over-Year

• Numeric/Percentage Change
• Issue: Less influence of seasonal

factors

• Main Use: Compare changes to

previous time periods – long-term trends (growing, declining, accelerating, or decelerating)

Month-Over-Month (MoM) Highlights

• The Arizona seasonally-adjusted (SA) unemployment rate decreased from 13.4%

in April to 8.9% in May

• The U.S. SA unemployment rate decreased from 14.7% in April to 13.3% in May
• Arizona reported an increase of 45,200 nonfarm jobs (1.7%)
• The private sector gained 58,900 jobs (2.6%)
• Eight of the eleven major sectors gained jobs while the remaining three sectors

reported job losses

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Year-Over-Year (YoY) Highlights

• Arizona nonfarm employment decreased by 163,100 jobs (-5.6%)
• Arizona private sector employment decreased by 155,100 jobs (-6.2%)
• Two of the eleven major sectors added jobs
• Gains were in recorded in Construction (1,500 jobs) and Financial Activities

(1,000 jobs)

• Nine of the eleven sectors recorded job losses
• The largest losses were recorded in Leisure and Hospitality (-87,000 jobs)

and Professional and Business Services (-29,500)

• All seven Arizona metro areas (MSAs) lost jobs
• The largest decreases were recorded in Flagstaff MSA (-17.4%) followed by

Lake Havasu-Kingman MSA (-10.5%)

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Historical Unemployment Insurance (UI) Claims

Continued Claims:

• Claims in Arizona rose by 660 during week ending

May 30

• Arizona continued claims peaked during the week of

May 9 Initial Claims:

• During week ending June 6, 24,367 UI initial claims

were filed

• A total of 654,092 UI initial claims have been filed

since week ending March 14 through week ending May 30

Impacts of COVID-19 on the BLS Household Survey

• For the March 2020 report, BLS began classifying anyone who was not working

because of virus-related business closing as unemployed

• BLS identified a misclassification error, in which some people were mistakenly

characterized as employed rather than unemployed

• An unusual number of people were being counted as “employed but absent

from work”

• Typically, this category reflects vacation, family leave or other temporary

absences.

• If the misclassified people had been counted as unemployed, the unemployment

rate would have been higher in March, April and May 2020.

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Impacts of COVID-19 on the BLS Household Survey

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Impacts of COVID-19 on the BLS Household Survey

Impacts of COVID-19 on the BLS Household Survey

Survey Response Rates

• The response rate in the national survey of households was 83 percent in

February, 73 percent in March, 70 percent in April and 67 percent in May

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics was still able to obtain estimates that met their

standards for accuracy and reliability

• The response rate in the Arizona survey of households was 80.0 percent in

January, 80.6 percent in February, 68.3% in March and 63.4% in April

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Month-Over-Month Labor Force Change

Highlights:

• The Arizona labor force increased by 2,795 people

(0.1%) MoM in May

• The United States labor force increased by 1,746,00

people (1.1%) MoM in May

• In April, Arizona’s labor force (-1.0%) decreased at a

lower rate than the United States (-3.9%)

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

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Year-Over-Year Employment Change

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

Highlights:

• Gains in Administrative and Waste Services (3,200

jobs) were offset by losses in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (-6,400 jobs)

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Notable Losses:

• Employment Services lost 12,200 jobs (-11.9%)
• Business Support Services lost 3,800 jobs (-9.5%)

Year-Over-Year Employment Change

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

Highlights:

• Retail Trade recorded gains of 7,400 jobs or 2.4%.

○ Clothing and General Merchandise (3,600 jobs or 5.2%) recorded a majority of Retail Trade gains

• Wholesale Trade recorded a gain of 1,600 jobs

○ Gains came from wholesalers in: electronic parts, and sports and recreational goods.

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Notable Losses:

• Retail Trade lost 11,800 jobs (-3.7%)
• Transportation and Warehousing lost 1,200 jobs (-

1.2%)

Year-Over-Year Employment Change

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

Highlights:

• Local Government Education (-7,300 jobs) was

responsible for a majority of Government job losses

• State Government Education lost 4,000 jobs

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Notable Losses:

• Local Education recorded a loss of -12,700 jobs (-

8.7%)

• State Education recorded a gain of 6,300 jobs

(12.4%)

Year-Over-Year Employment Change

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

Highlights:

• Large job gains were recorded in Food

Services and Drinking Places (42,700 jobs or 27.6%)

• Arts, Entertainment and Recreation gained

1,000 jobs

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Notable Losses:

• Food Services and Drinking Places recorded a loss
• f 43,900 jobs (-18.2%)
• Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation experienced

losses of 21,000 jobs (-45.9%).

• Accommodations recorded a loss of 22,100 jobs (-

48.1%)

Year-Over-Year Employment Change

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

Highlights:

• Credit Intermediaries recorded gains of 700 jobs

○ Job gains were primarily within commercial banking

• Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing continued losing

jobs in May (-900 jobs) following atypical losses in April (-1,300 jobs) ○ Losses attributed to residential and nonresidential property management, and real estate offices

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Notable Loss:

• Real Estate and Rental and Leasing recorded

a loss of -2,600 jobs (-4.7%)

• Insurance Carriers recorded a loss of 200 jobs

(-0.3%) Notable Gains:

• Credit Intermediaries recorded a gain of 3,700

jobs (4.2%)

Year-Over-Year Employment Change

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

Highlights:

• Specialty Trades (2,400 jobs) was responsible for

the majority of gains in Construction

• Construction of Buildings (600 jobs) and Heavy and

Civil Construction (500 jobs) also gained jobs

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Highlights:

• Specialty Trades lost 400 jobs (-2.0%)
• Construction of Buildings gained 400 jobs (1.2%)
• Heavy and Civil Construction gained 1,500 jobs

(7.5%)

Year-Over-Year Employment Change

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Arizona New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits; Seasonally Adjusted

Notable Changes:

• 2,801 building permits were authorized in April 2020,

35% fewer than in March 2020

• Year-over-year there was a 29% decrease in

building permits authorizations

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

Highlights:

• Job losses were recorded in both Durable Goods (-

1,000 jobs) and Nondurable Goods (-500 jobs)

• Within Durable Goods, Aerospace Products and

Parts gained 600 jobs

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Year-Over-Year Employment Change

Notable Loss:

• Nondurable Goods lost 2,300 jobs (-5.3%)
• Durable Goods lost 7,300 jobs (-5.5%)

○ Aerospace Products and Parts lost 200 jobs (-0.7%) ○ Computer and Electronic Parts gained 1,800 jobs (5.6%)

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

Highlights:

• Healthcare and Social Assistance gained 7,000 jobs

○ Ambulatory Healthcare Services gained 8,400 jobs ○ Nursing and Residential Care Facilities lost 600 jobs

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Year-Over-Year Employment Change

Notable Loss:

• Ambulatory Health Care Services lost 4,100 jobs (-

2.4%)

• Nursing and Residential Care Facilities lost 1,000

jobs (-1.7%)

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

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Year-Over-Year Employment Change

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

Highlights

• Gains attributed to Beauty Shops

and Civic and Social Organizations

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Year-Over-Year Employment Change

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

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Year-Over-Year Employment Change

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Seasonally-Adjusted Month-Over-Month Employment Gain/Loss by Sector

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Report Summary

• Month-over-month, Arizona nonfarm employment increased by 45,200 jobs
• Eight of the eleven major sectors gained jobs
• The Arizona SA unemployment rate decreased to 8.9% in May from 13.4% in April
• The U.S. SA unemployment rate decreased to 13.3% in May from 14.7% in April
• A total of 654,092 unemployment insurance (UI) initial claims were filed in Arizona

from the week ending March 14 through the week ending May 30

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Thank You Any Questions?

Upcoming Release: June Employment Report on July 16th

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