June 2020 Employment Report Doug Walls, Labor Market Information - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

July 16, 2020

June 2020 Employment Report

Doug Walls, Labor Market Information Director

Types of Employment Data Analyzed

Survey of Businesses

Current Employment Statistics

• Employment and wage estimates by

industry

• Measures jobs not number of people

employed

• Excludes most agriculture,

self-employed, family, military and rail workers

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Survey of Households

Local Area Unemployment Statistics

• Unemployment, employment and

labor force levels by geographic region

• Measures people employed not

number of jobs

• Excludes individuals not in the labor

force

Types of Analysis Discussed

Month-Over-Month

• Numeric/Percentage Change
• Issue: Large influence of seasonal

factors

• Main Use: Compare changes to

previous years in the same month – comparison of previous years point-in-time estimates

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Year-Over-Year

• Numeric/Percentage Change
• Issue: Less influence of seasonal

factors

• Main Use: Compare changes to

previous time periods – long-term trends (growing, declining, accelerating, or decelerating)

Month-Over-Month (MoM) Highlights

• The Arizona seasonally-adjusted (SA) unemployment rate increased from 9.0% in

in May to 10.0% in June

• The U.S. SA unemployment rate decreased from 13.3% in May to 11.1 % in June
• Arizona reported an increase of 19,700 nonfarm jobs (0.7%)
• The private sector gained 66,900 jobs (2.9%)
• Nine of the eleven major sectors gained jobs while the remaining two sectors

reported job losses

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Year-Over-Year (YoY) Highlights

• Arizona nonfarm employment decreased by 94,700 jobs (-3.3%)
• Arizona private sector employment decreased by 79,200 jobs (-3.2%)
• Four of the eleven major sectors added jobs
• The largest gains were in recorded in Trade,Transportation & Utilities (5,900

jobs) and Other Services (1,700 jobs)

• Seven of the eleven sectors recorded job losses
• The largest losses were recorded in Leisure and Hospitality (-49,400 jobs)

and Professional and Business Services (-24,800)

• Six of the seven Arizona metro areas (MSAs) lost jobs
• The largest decreases were recorded in Flagstaff MSA (-15.2%) followed by

Lake Havasu-Kingman MSA (-7.5%)

• Sierra Vista-Douglas was the only MSA that recorded job gains (1.5%)

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CES and LAUS Employment Comparison

In June 2020, CES and LAUS employment change estimates showed different trends

• The LAUS program estimated that SA employment

declined by nearly 86,000 people MoM

• The CES program estimated that SA employment

increased by nearly 74,000 jobs MoM

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CES and LAUS Employment Comparison

Points to consider when interpreting the differences between CES and LAUS employment estimates:

• The LAUS program includes individuals who are self employed while the CES program does not.
• The collection periods are different for the LAUS survey and the CES survey.
• LAUS SA employment gains in May 2020 were larger than employment gains reported in the CES

program (164,000 jobs compared to 63,000 jobs).

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CES and LAUS Employment Comparison

When we apply a two-month moving average to the CES and LAUS employment estimates, the two surveys show similar employment changes in May 2020 and June 2020.

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Historical Unemployment Insurance (UI) Claims

Continued Claims:

• Arizona claims declined by 902 individuals from

week ending June 20 to week ending June 27.

• U.S. claims have been declining since reaching its

peak during week ending May 9.

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Unemployment Insurance (UI) Claims

Initial Claims:

• During week ending July 4, 25,774 UI initial claims

were filed in Arizona

• A total of 754,499 UI initial claims have been filed

in Arizona since week ending March 21 through week ending July 4

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Month-Over-Month (MoM) Percent Labor Force Change

Notable Changes:

• The Arizona labor force declined by 55,529 people

(-1.6%) MoM in June 2020.

• The U.S. labor force increased by 1.1% MoM in June

2020.

• Arizona is at 96.8% of Feb. 2020 labor force levels.
• The United States is at 97.2% of Feb 2020 labor

force levels.

Impacts of COVID-19 on the BLS Household Survey

• For the March 2020 survey, BLS began classifying anyone who was not working

because of virus-related business closing as unemployed.

• BLS identified a misclassification error, in which some people were mistakenly

characterized as employed rather than unemployed.

• An unusual number of people were being counted as “employed but absent

from work”

• Typically, this category reflects vacation, family leave or other temporary

absences.

• If the misclassified people had been counted as unemployed, the unemployment

rate would have been higher in March-June 2020.

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Impacts of COVID-19 on the BLS Household Survey

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Impacts of COVID-19 on the BLS Household Survey

Note: Arizona misclassification data available only through May 2020. June 2020 data will be available July 17.

Impacts of COVID-19 on the BLS Household Survey

Survey Response Rates

• The response rate in the national survey of households was 83 percent in

February, 73 percent in March, 70 percent in April, 67 percent in May, and 65 percent in June.

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics was still able to obtain estimates that met their

standards for accuracy and reliability

• The response rate in the Arizona survey of households was 80 percent in January,

81 percent in February, 68 percent in March, 63 percent in April, and 59 percent in May. Note: June 2020 response rate for Arizona will be available July 17

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

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Year-Over-Year Employment Change

Highlights:

• Arizona nonfarm employment declined 3.3%

YoY (-94,700 jobs) in June 2020

• U.S. nonfarm employment declined 8.7% YoY in

June 2020

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

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Year-Over-Year Employment Change

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

Highlights:

• Job gains were recorded in Employment Services

(3,400 jobs or 3.7%) and Business Support Services (900 jobs or 2.5%)

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Notable Losses:

• Employment Services lost 10,100 jobs (-9.7%)
• Services to Buildings and Dwell lost 4,200 jobs

(-9.2%)

• Business Support Services lost 3,200 jobs (-8.0%)

Year-Over-Year Employment Change

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

Highlights:

• Retail Trade recorded a gain of 6,600 jobs or

2.1%. ○ General Merchandise recorded a gain of 4,400 jobs or 6.9% ○ Clothing and Accessories recorded a gain of 2,300 jobs or 24.2%

• Wholesale Trade recorded a gain of 1,400 jobs or

1.3%.

• Transportation and Warehousing recorded a gain
• f 4,000 jobs or 4.0%

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Notable Losses:

• Retail Trade recorded a loss of 2,200 jobs (-0.7%)

Notable Gains:

• Wholesale Trade recorded a gain of 6,900 jobs

(7.0%)

• Transportation and Warehousing recorded a gain of

1,000 jobs (1.0%)

Year-Over-Year Employment Change

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U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

Highlights:

• Local Government Education (-35,400 jobs or
• 26.6%) was responsible for a majority of

Government job losses

• State Government Education lost 13,800 jobs
• r -24.2%

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Notable Losses:

• Local Government Education recorded a loss of
• 14,300 jobs (-12.8%)
• State Government Education recorded a gain of

1,100 jobs (2.6%)

Year-Over-Year Employment Change

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

Highlights:

• Food Services and Drinking Places gained

18,300 jobs or 9.4%

• Accommodation gained 8,600 jobs or 35.0%
• Arts, Entertainment and Recreation gained

7,100 jobs or 29.1% ○ The gains came from Fitness and Recreational Sports Centers and Amusement and Theme Parks, among

• thers..

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Notable Losses:

• Food Services and Drinking Places recorded a loss
• f 22,800 jobs (-9.7%)
• Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation experienced

losses of 14,300 jobs (-31.2%).

• Accommodations recorded a loss of 12,300 jobs

(-27.0%)

Year-Over-Year Employment Change

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

Highlights:

• Credit Intermediaries recorded gains of 900 jobs

○ Job gains were primarily within Real Estate Credit and Commercial Banking

• Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing recorded a gain of

200 jobs

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Notable Loss:

• Real Estate and Rental and Leasing recorded a

loss of 2,400 jobs (-4.3%)

• Insurance Carriers recorded a loss of 1,100

jobs (-1.7%) Notable Gains:

• Credit Intermediaries recorded a gain of 3,800

jobs (4.3%)

Year-Over-Year Employment Change

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

Highlights:

• Heavy and Civil Construction (-700 jobs) was

responsible for the majority of losses in Construction

• Specialty Trades (-100 jobs) and Construction of

Buildings (-100 jobs) also lost jobs

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Highlights:

• Specialty Trades lost 2,700 jobs (-2.3%)
• Construction of Buildings lost 800 jobs (-2.3%)
• Heavy and Civil Construction gained 700 jobs (3.5%)

Year-Over-Year Employment Change

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Arizona New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits; Seasonally Adjusted

Notable Changes:

• 3,037 building permits were authorized in May 2020,

4% more than in April 2020.

• There was a 25% decrease in building permit

authorizations YoY in May 2020.

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

Highlights:

• Durable Goods (2,700 jobs) was responsible for the

majority job gains in Manufacturing.

• Within Durable Goods, Aerospace Products and

Parts gained 1,000 jobs and Computer and Electronic Parts gained 600 jobs.

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Year-Over-Year Employment Change

Notable Loss:

• Nondurable Goods lost 1,900 jobs (-4.4%)
• Durable Goods lost 4,300 jobs (-3.2%)

○ Fabricated Metals lost 300 jobs (-1.4%) ○ Computer and Electronic Parts gained 2,100 jobs (6.4%) ○ Aerospace Products and Parts gained 200 jobs (0.6%)

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

Highlights:

• Healthcare and Social Assistance gained 7,400 jobs

○ Ambulatory Healthcare Services gained 7,500 jobs ○ Social Assistance gained 900 jobs ○ Nursing and Residential Care Facilities lost 1,000 jobs

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Year-Over-Year Employment Change

Notable Loss:

• Social Assistance lost 4,200 jobs (-6.7%)
• Nursing and Residential Care Facilities lost 1,900

jobs (-3.3%) Notable Gain:

• Ambulatory Health Care Services gained 1,800

jobs (1.1%)

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

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Year-Over-Year Employment Change

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

Highlights

• Job gains occured within Political

Organizations, Civil and Social Organizations, and Other Personal Care services, among others.

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Year-Over-Year Employment Change

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Month-Over-Month Employment Change

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Year-Over-Year Employment Change

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Seasonally-Adjusted Month-Over-Month Employment Gain/Loss by Sector

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Report Summary

• Month-over-month, Arizona nonfarm employment increased by 19,700 jobs
• Nine of the eleven major sectors gained jobs
• Year-over-year, Arizona nonfarm employment declined by 3.3%, while U.S.

nonfarm employment declined by 8.7% YoY.

• The Arizona SA unemployment rate increased to 10.0% in June from 9.0% in May
• The U.S. SA unemployment rate decreased to 11.1% in June from 13.3% in May

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Thank You Any Questions?

Upcoming Release: Long Term Employment Projections Report on July 30 July Employment Report on August 20

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