MatSus Economic Indicators That Provide Some Insight Into The Future - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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MatSus Economic Indicators That Provide Some Insight Into The Future - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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MatSus Economic Indicators That Provide Some Insight Into The Future January 11 th , 2017 Neal Fried, Economist Does this look like a recession? Alaskas Total Wage and Salary Employment Over-the-year change 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000

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MatSu’s Economic Indicators That Provide Some Insight Into The Future

January 11th, 2017 Neal Fried, Economist

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SLIDE 2
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SLIDE 3

Does this look like a recession?

  • 12,000
  • 10,000
  • 8,000
  • 6,000
  • 4,000
  • 2,000

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Alaska’s Total Wage and Salary Employment

Over-the-year change

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SLIDE 4

Employment Is Still Growing-An Anomaly These Days

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

Mat-Su wage and salary employment

*based on first 6 months

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SLIDE 5

Employment Growth-Still Positive

3% 1% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 4% 2% 2%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Annual wage and salary growth

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SLIDE 6

Better Than Most Places

1,700 1,500 2,100

  • 900

900 2,700 3,400 300 900 500 500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Annual wage and salary employment changes

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SLIDE 7

Where Mat-Su Residents Work— Means More Than Ever

Mat-Su Borough 55% North Slope 9% Fairbanks NSB 1% Anchorage 30% Kenai Pen. Borough 1% Rest of State 4%

Excludes uniformed military, federal and self-employed workers

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SLIDE 8

Percent Of Valley Residents Working In The Valley Has Changed Little

57% 57% 57% 55% 55% 54% 55% 55% 55% 56% 55%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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SLIDE 9

The Data Behind Commuting

$54,317 $42,731 $56,822 $100,478 Statewide Mat-Su Anchorage North Slope

2015 Average annual earnings

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SLIDE 10

0.1% 1.8% 2.2% 0.1%

  • 0.1%

0.6%

  • 2.3%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016* Employment Growth Gone In Anchorage In 2016 2014

*Preliminary

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SLIDE 11

This Is How Things Are Shaping Up In Anchorage In 2016*

(3,600) 700 100 (300) (1,600)

  • 900

(700) (400)

Total Health Care Federal Government Leisure and Hosp. PBS Construction Oil and Gas State G Retail

Number of Jobs Gained and Lost in 2016 *Preliminary

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SLIDE 12

The Number of Mat-Su Residents Working On The Slope (in 2014 Mat-Su

residents earned $258 million in the oil industry)

1,297 1,396 2,028 2,439 2,858 2,769 3,011 2,885 3,118 3,105 3,581 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Jobs

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SLIDE 13

12,843 13,236 13,485 13,434 12,517 12,468 12,325 12,378 12,330 11,964 11,741 11,764 12,106 12,035 11,898 10,816 10,369 10,150

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Prudhoe Bay Employment Fell Fast And Hard

2015 2016

historic high employment lowest level since 2009

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SLIDE 14
  • 9.0%
  • 21.0%
  • 15.0%
  • 9.0%
  • 21.0%

1985-1987 1991-1997 1998-1999 2001-2003 2015-2016*

Previous Oil And Gas Employment Losses In AK

  • 800
  • 2,200
  • 1,400
  • 800

2,400

*preliminary estimate

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SLIDE 15

Wednesday, October 5, 2016

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SLIDE 16

Unemployment Climbing Some

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

U.S.

4.4%

%

Anchorage

5.2%

Percent unemployment

Mat-Su

8.0%

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SLIDE 17

$24.9 $26.4 $28.4 $30.9 $30.9 $32.5 $34.9 $36.4 $36.9 $39.0 $41.3 $41.6

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Source: BEA *based on 2 quarters

Alaska's Personal Income Numbers Still Looking Good-- First 2 Quarters of 2016 Still Slightly Positive

$ billions

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SLIDE 18

Not Going To Bail Out The Economy

Some Numbers—Lots of “Haze” Here Numbers of Customers 103,123 annually-72,426 monthly Number of Tons 17.8 tons, 4 tons retail Number of Direct Jobs

700 to 1,400

Number of Indirect Jobs 300 to 600 Total Number of Jobs 1,000 to 2,000 Total Value Retail $55.6 million Tax Revenues $7 million

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SLIDE 19

1,650,000 1,700,000 1,750,000 1,800,000 1,850,000 1,900,000 1,950,000 2,000,000

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Visitors Source: Mcdowell Group

Alaska's Visitor Industry Fully Recovered

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SLIDE 20

16.3 15.8 17.0 17.5 18.5 17.8 18.4 16.6 17.4 18.4 18.3 17.9 18.3 18.2 18.2

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Millions of gallons of beer, wine and liquor consumption in AK

Source: AK Department of Revenue

Alcohol Consumption In Alaska--Any Pattern?

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SLIDE 21

A Pretty Attractive Income Picture

Ranking State Median Household Income-2015 Anchorage $78,662 Mat-Su $76,424 1 Maryland $75,847 2 Hawaii $73,486 3 Alaska $73,355 4 New Jersey $72,222 5 Connecticut $71,346 U.S. $55,755

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SLIDE 22

Home Sales In The Valley

(1st three quarters of 2016 have shown little change)

1,266 1,415 1,179 1,140 1,156 1,226 1,204 1,503 1,735 1,936

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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SLIDE 23

Foreclosures, Little Sign Of Much Change

100 200 300 400 500 600

Source: Alaska Department of Natural Resources

Palmer Recording District, Foreclosures

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SLIDE 24

Building Permits In The Mat-Su— No Bubble Here

2,038 1,762 962 810 703 750 777 729 778 988 906 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Number of residential building units

In 1995, when Matsu population was 48,906, permits issued were 1,087.

Population was 74,871 Population now 100,178

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The Valley Builds More Homes Than Anywhere Else In The State

Mat-Su Borough 37% Juneau 4% Fairbanks NSB 10% Anchorage 35% Kenai Pen. Borough 5% Rest of State 9%

You have 14% of the state’s population but built a third of the new housing in 2015.

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You Remain Very Competitive

$269,462 $380,288 $253,506 $377,635 $280,056 $320,999 MatSu Anchorage Fairbanks Juneau Kenai Statewide

Average sales price of single-family home, 3rd quarter 2016

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The Valley Housing Price Advantage Has Changed Little In Over The Past Decade

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ratio of single family home price-Anchorage/Mat-Su

Source: Valley Board of Realtors, MLS.

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SLIDE 28

Alaska’s Biggest Current Challenge- Oil Revenues

$3.4 $4.4 $5.1 $11.3 $6.1 $6.2 $8.1 $9.9 $7.4 $5.7 $2.3 $1.1

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

$billions!

*forecast

This eventually has an effect

  • n the

economy

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SLIDE 29
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Questions?

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After A Number Years of Decline The Trend Finally Reversed Itself

25,000 27,000 29,000 31,000 33,000 35,000 37,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Number of registered pick-ups in the Valley

Source: AK DMV

And 9,565 registered snow machines in 2015—high point was 11,048 in 2008.

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SLIDE 32
  • Alaska Leads U.S. States in Well-Being for First Time

by Dan Witters Story Highlights Hawaii and South Dakota round out top three well- being states West Virginia ranks last for the sixth straight year Hawaii and Colorado only states in top 10 every year since '08

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SLIDE 33

Alaska’s High Earners Under Thirty

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SLIDE 34

But Laurence C. Smith warms right to it in “The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization’s Northern Future” (Plume, 2010). He’s a professor of earth, planetary, and space sciences at UCLA, and used model projections and data to form his main thesis: Countries north of the equator will grow ever more powerful, while countries to the south will vie for

  • survival. Indeed, boomtowns will

pop up in Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Russia and

  • Scandinavia. As the permafrost melts,

we’ll build roads, bringing construction jobs and a real estate rush. Forecasting the future

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

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SLIDE 35

$44.9 $49.3 $55.4 $50.5 $54.2 $59.3 $61.6 $59.9 $58.1 $52.7 $51.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Source:BEA

Alaska's GDP Numbers Have Been Falling For A While

$ billions

*preliminary

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SLIDE 36

3.2% 2.2% 4.6% 1.2% 1.8% 3.2% 2.2% 3.1% 1.6% 0.5%

  • 0.1%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Inflation--Lowest Cost Of Living Increases Since 1988

Anchorage consumer price index, 2005 to 2016

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

*1st half 2015 to 2016

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SLIDE 37

28.5 29.0 29.5 30.0 30.5 31.0 31.5 32.0 32.5 33.0 33.5

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

MatSu Resident Workers Who Work in Anchorage

Percent Of MatSu Residents That Commute To Anchorage Number Of MatSu Resident That Commute to Anchorage

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SLIDE 38
  • 20,000
  • 15,000
  • 10,000
  • 5,000

5,000 10,000 15,000

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988

Total Employment Change

Same month, compared to the previous year

September, 1986

  • 18,500 (-7.5 %)

February, 1986

  • 900 (-0.4 %)
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SLIDE 39

25 months 13 months 56 months 46 months 26 months 43 months 18 months 18 months 23 months Total Employment Mining Construction Transportation, Communication and Utilities Trade Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Services and Miscellaneous State Government Local Government

Months Of Over-the-year Job Losses For Selected Industries During Alaska’s 1980’s “Great Recession”

Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88

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SLIDE 40
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SLIDE 41

65+ = 10 percent of population

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SLIDE 42

Anchorage’s Military Numbers Are Trending Down

11,300 11,590 11,942 12,113 12,688 12,787 12,699 10,967 12,295 11,643 10,503

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Uniformed military-Anchorage

Source: AKDOL