Market diversification, Renewed focus Big data and intensifying - - PDF document

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Market diversification, Renewed focus Big data and intensifying - - PDF document

16May18 A lot has changed in recent years UCAS presentation New regulator, Uncertainties ? Demographics, Data, insight, tips, resources, news Office for over future falling 18 year old Students of HE funding population to 2020


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16‐May‐18 1 UCAS presentation

Data, insight, tips, resources, news

Alan Jones, Professional Development Executive

Demographics, falling 18 year old population to 2020 New regulator, Office for Students in England Uncertainties

  • ver future
  • f HE funding

?

Impact

  • f Brexit

Market diversification, intensifying competition for students – HEPs are under financial pressure

£

Big data and advances in technology Renewed focus

  • n widening

participation and access Devolution Changes to qualifications, new T levels in England, and apprenticeships Changing employment market

A lot has changed in recent years… Lower demand and competition increase offer rates

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16‐May‐18 2

Unconditional offer making and learners

  • Unconditional offers have increased again

this year – 5% of offers to 18 year olds

  • Unconditional offers may affect attainment
  • 32% of applicants with an UF offer miss

their grades by more than 3 points, compared to 20% for those with CF.

  • Remain unpopular with teachers and

advisers

  • Students ‘taking their foot off the

pedal’

  • Are they prepared for university?
  • Should they let universities and

colleges know if a learner is failing?

  • UCAS resources to inform decisions

51.6k unconditional offers made in 2017 to 18 year old English, Welsh, and Northern Irish applicants – a 40% increase on 2016. This accounts for over 5% of all offers made to this group. 17.5% of these applicants receive at least one unconditional offer. 30k of these offers were chosen as firm and 8.4k chosen as insurance.

Unconditional offers have increased this cycle

Applicants with the top grades are among the least likely to receive an unconditional offer. In 2014 and 2015, those predicted AAA were most likely to receive an unconditional offer. In 2017, the grade profile has shifted downwards to those predicted BBB. One in five applicants predicted BBC to ABB received an unconditional offer.

Grade profile of those receiving unconditional offers is changing

Fall in acceptances not as large as might have been expected, as providers accepted a higher proportion of applicants. The highest acceptance rate since 2008.

Acceptance rate increased

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Falls in UK acceptances entirely from older age groups with three quarters of decline accounted for by 19 year olds. 18 year old acceptances increased by 1.1%, despite a population fall of 1.2%, as demand increased.

Increases seen for 18‐year‐olds Falls in acceptances for 19+

Increase in UK 18 year old acceptances despite population decrease

Acceptance rates increased for all domiciles.

UK acceptances: ‐0.7% England +2.4% Scotland ‐0.2% Wales ‐2.9% Northern Ireland

Mixed acceptance pattern by domicile

Higher tariff providers saw increased acceptances from 2011 to 2016. In 2017, numbers remained stable. Focus shifted towards widening participation? Medium tariff providers still growing, having started their growth a year after higher tariff. Lower tariff saw growth from 2012 to 2015, but decreases in acceptances from

  • 2016. Squeezed by medium tariff?

Growth has slowed Still growing Decreasing

Outcomes differ by provider type Competition for students with lower grades

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16‐May‐18 4

Fewer applicants available to be placed in Clearing (‐20k on ARD). More Clearing acceptances on the first day. Increase in Clearing acceptances of 3.1%, resulting in an extra 1.9k placed through this route.

Clearing was faster last summer

+3.1% ‐0.2% +14%

Increase in Clearing acceptances entirely from DTC route.

16,950 placed via DTC, an increase of 2.1k from last year, indicating an increasing appetite to apply late in the cycle.

93% UK domiciled 67% aged 20 or over Business and admin studies most popular courses

Direct to Clearing acceptances up 14%

Some improvements using the POLAR3 measure, but no improvements using a multi‐dimensional approach since 2014. Improvements in both measures seen for higher tariff providers. POLAR3 Q1 saw its largest recorded increase in entry rate to high tariff. The MEM (Multiple Equality Measure) G5:G1 ratio has been falling each year for higher tariff since 2010.

Progress stalled Some improvement

Widening participation is an ongoing challenge

Application rates by POLAR4 have shown a small improvement from last year, with increases in application rates across all quintiles. The gap between young UK men and women has increased by 1%, with women now 36% more likely to apply to HE than men this year. In disadvantaged areas, young women are 66% more likely to apply than men. This is the widest gap recorded.

Mixed picture for widening participation

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16‐May‐18 5

The White ethnic group had the lowest entry rate and the smallest proportional increase in entry rates. This increases the gap between the White ethnic group and all

  • ther ethnic groups.

18 year old entry rates and proportional change compared to 2016

White ethnic group entry rates fall further behind

Women are 36% more likely to apply and enter HE than men. If men had the same entry rate as women, there would be an extra 38k acceptances from men.

UK 18 year old women remain more likely to enter HE than UK 18 year old men

The UK 18 year old population doesn’t stop falling until 2020. The population won’t recover to levels seen in 2010 until 2025.. 20,000 fewer 18 year

  • lds in 2018

UK 18 year old population

UK 18 year old population still falling 15 October deadline

  • Increased demand or shift in

applicant behaviour?

  • 7% increase at the October

deadline.

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January deadline 2018

Applicants down by 0.9% (‐5k) and applications down 1.4% at January deadline. Declines driven by:

  • nursing
  • changing demographics

This is offset by:

  • attractiveness of HE to 18 year olds
  • EU and outside the EU demand increasing

Nursing applicants have fallen by 10% (‐4.5k) to 40,605. Fall is largely due to mature applicants – 21 to 24 down by 12% (‐855), 25+ down by 14% (‐2.3k).

Demand for nursing continues to decrease

Stable forecasted applicant numbers for this cycle dependent on recent trend of increasing Clearing applicants. Decreases in UK applicants

  • ffset by small increases in EU

applicants, and larger increases from applicants from outside the EU. Increases from 2020 driven by increasing population of UK 18 year olds.

Applicant numbers forecast to remain stable UK applicants forecast to decrease

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16‐May‐18 7

Mature demand likely to fall

UK applicants aged 20 and over forecast to continue declining. 11% fewer applicants forecast for 2022 than 2017.

Economy? Debt averse?

EU and outside the EU applicants are forecast to increase

Forecasts indicate that Clearing will continue as an important admissions route over the coming years. Applicants aware of choice available in Clearing that provides a valuable post‐qualifications admissions route. Forecasted to continue to make use of this route in record numbers.

Number of acceptances (DTC)

Clearing an established admissions route

Successful applications

“Start early… Take it seriously… Make it the best that it can be”

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16‐May‐18 8

How it works: general

For most students… 2017 stats: 533,890 students accepted 381,560 to firm choice

New and useful resources 1

Adviser classroom resources for research activities www.ucas.com/researching‐options

New and useful resources 2

Explore jobs and careers

New and useful resources 3

Apprenticeships information https://www.ucas.com/apprenticeships‐in‐the‐uk

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16‐May‐18 9

New and useful resources 4

Offer rate calculator https://www.ucas.com/advisers/guides‐and‐resources/ucas‐new‐offer‐rate‐calculator

New and useful resources 5

Application form printed guide pdf https://www.ucas.com/file/131431/download?token=LLf‐qD0M Goes through the online application form screen by screen, showing all help text etc. Careful: it is 44 pages long! Available in the handouts for students and parents in the Adviser Guides and Resources page and in the pre‐application toolkit.

New and useful resources 6

Estranged students hub https://www.ucas.com/estranged‐students

New and useful resources 7

Teaching Excellence Framework (TEF) https://www.ucas.com/advisers/guides‐and‐resources/guide‐teaching‐excellence‐framework‐tef Student rights https://www.ucas.com/ucas/undergraduate/choosing‐course/know‐your‐rights https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/415732/Undergraduate _students_‐_your_rights_under_consumer_law.pdf Widening participation and the use of contextualised admissions https://www.ucas.com/widening‐participation https://www.ucas.com/file/86786/download?token=zVfQ‐oho

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New and useful resources 8

Filling in a UCAS application https://www.ucas.com/ucas/undergraduate/apply‐and‐track/filling‐your‐ucas‐undergraduate‐application Printable handout https://www.ucas.com/file/77801/download?token=GZu595Es

New and useful resources 9

UCAS Extra https://www.ucas.com/ucas/undergraduate/apply‐and‐track/track‐your‐application/extra‐choices Direct Contact Service https://www.ucas.com/advisers/guides‐and‐resources/ confirmation‐and‐clearing‐toolkit/direct‐contact‐service Opt‐in service for universities, colleges and students. For students – if unplaced and available for Extra or Clearing, matched with up to 5 unis offering the course they want who have accepted applicants previously with the same grades. Could receive calls directly from unis.

New and useful resources 10

Duke of Edinburgh Award – information

https://www.ucas.com/advisers/guides‐and‐resources/adviser‐news/news/duke‐edinburgh‐%E2%80%93‐award‐holders‐work

Guidance for UCAS personal statement https://www.dofe.org/ucas

New and useful resources 11

Student finance (England) https://www.ucas.com/sfe

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16‐May‐18 11

New and useful resources 12

Professional Development Portal https://pdp.ucas.com

New and useful resources 13

https://www.ucas.com/corporate/data‐and‐analysis/ucas‐undergraduate‐releases/ application‐and‐entry‐rate‐data‐explorers

Data explorers

  • n ucas.com

Current products and services for teachers and advisers

  • Apply for advisers – monitor, check, attach a reference, approve, and submit applications.
  • Adviser Track* – track offers and decisions made by universities, which includes, (updated every 24 hours):
  • Applicant Status Reports (ASRs) – snapshot listing all your students, their choice of universities and colleges,

their offers and replies. Available twice weekly

  • Final Destination Reports (FDRs) – confirmation of your students’ destinations. Available at the end of

every cycle

  • Progression Reports* – annual report providing data on your centre, your students’ progression and offers, and

comparison data with the whole sector.

  • Competitor Reports* – annual report allowing you to compare your destination data with your choice of ‘competitor’

schools. *subscription products

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16‐May‐18 12 Future products and services

What: adviser and agent portal replacing Apply for Advisers, and Adviser Track. When: delivered for May 2019, ready for 2020 entry. Functionality

  • Real‐time data on your students’ offers and decisions.
  • Notifications.
  • Complete oversight of your students’ applications.
  • Timely reports, and access to data on your students.
  • Enhanced reference function.
  • Continued enhancement of data reports on your centre, with our Competitor and Progression Reports.

How do advisers get involved?

  • We will produce a test and demo environment, so advisers can feed back with their requirements.
  • Advisers will be given the opportunity to help shape developments, either online or in practical workshops.
  • There will be a ‘Development of our services’ tile on ucas.com/advisers, giving more information.

Reminders and updates

2018 entry

  • Confirmation and Clearing hub on ucas.com/advisers with key dates from May.
  • Exam results web page on ucas.com/advisers (specific advice on who to contact if something has changed).

Apply for advisers sign in details for 2019 to be sent to UCAS correspondents:

  • 30 April – advisers in Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales
  • 8 May – advisers in England

2019 entry

  • 8 May – UCAS search tool live.
  • 15 May – Apply for advisers live.
  • 22 May – UCAS Undergraduate Apply live.
  • Criminal convictions question updated – more details in April’s adviser newsletter.
  • Continuous improvements to the search tool – current focus is on an entry requirements filter.

How to get in touch and keep updated:

  • Schools Team – call 0345 123 8001 or email adviserhelp@ucas.ac.uk.
  • Sign up to monthly adviser newsletters.
  • Twitter – @ucas_advisers.

Thank you