Ma March ch 202 020
Republic ublic of Indon
- nesi
esia
Main intain inin ing Stabil ilit ity y and S d Supporti ting Growt wth, Mit itig igat atin ing g Covid id-19 9 Ris isk
March Ma ch 202 020 About t Invest estor or Relati lations - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Republic ublic of Indon onesi esia Main intain inin ing Stabil ilit ity y and S d Supporti ting Growt wth, Mit itig igat atin ing g Covid id-19 9 Ris isk March Ma ch 202 020 About t Invest estor or Relati lations ons
Republic ublic of Indon
esia
Main intain inin ing Stabil ilit ity y and S d Supporti ting Growt wth, Mit itig igat atin ing g Covid id-19 9 Ris isk
1
About t Invest estor
lations
Unit t of the Repub ublic lic of Indonesi esia
Investor Relations Unit (IRU) of the Republic of Indonesia has been established as a joint effort between Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance and Bank Indonesia since 2005. The main objective of IRU is to actively communicate Indonesian economic policy and to address concerns of investors, especially financial market investors. As an important part
its communication measures, IRU maintains a website under Bank Indonesia website which is administered by International Department of Bank Indonesia. However, day-to-day activities of IRU are supported by all relevant government agencies, among others: Bank Indonesia, Ministry of Finance, Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, Investment Coordinating Board, Ministry of Trade, Ministry of State Owned Enterprises, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources and Financial Services Authority. IRU also convenes an investor conference call on a quarterly basis, answers questions through email, telephone and may arrange direct visit of banks/financial institutions to Bank Indonesia and other relevant government offices. Published by Investor Relations Unit – Republic of Indonesia Website: http://www.bi.go.id/en/iru/default.aspx Contact: Wiwit Widyastuti (International Department - Bank Indonesia, Phone: +6221 2981 8279) Evy Mulyani (Fiscal Policy Office - Ministry of Finance, Phone: +6221 345 0012) Subhan Noor (Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management - Ministry of Finance, Phone: +62213510714) Phone: +62213510714) E-mail: contactIRU-DL@bi.go.id This Presentation Book also can be downloaded from: http://www.bi.go.id/en/iru/presentation/red/Default.aspx
2
What’s New in This Edition
R&I Up Upgrade aded d Sover ereign eign Cred edit it Rating ing Indones donesia ia at BBB+/Ou /Outlo look
Stabl able
…page 7
Authorities’ Concerted Efforts towar ard Covi vid-19 19
…page 8
Bank k Indon
esia ia Lower ered ed BI 7-Day Rever erse se Repo
e by 25 bps to 4.50%
…page 64
Outlo look of Domest mestic ic Econom nomy
…page 100
3
Overvie view
1 2 3 4 5 6
Instit ituti tional
ernance nce Effec ecti tiven enes ess: : Accelera elerated ed Reform rms Agen enda da with Instit ituti tional
emen ent Econom nomic ic Factor: Strong ng and Stable le Growth th Prospec ects ts Remain in Intac act External nal Factor: tor: Improved
rnal al Resilience lience Fiscal al Perform
ance and Flexibi ibility lity: : More Fiscal al Stimulu ulus with Pruden ent t Fiscal al Managem gemen ent Monetary tary and Financi ncial al Factor: tor: Credib ible le Monetary tary Polic icy Track k Recor
d and Favou
rable le Financi ncial l Sector tor Progres ressiv ive Infras rastruct ructur ure e Develop velopmen ent: t: Strong ng Commit itmen ent t on Accelera elerati tion
astr truct ucture ure Provis ision ion
Instit itution utional l and d Gover ernme ment t Effecti ectiven eness: ess: Accel celerat erated ed Ref eform
gend nda a wit ith Instit itution utional l Impr mprovem emen ent
5
Improving ving Global al Percepti eption
…with recent impr mprovem ements ents on corrup upti tion n percept ption
dex x and governa rnanc nce e indica dicator
1. Source: World Economic Forum – The Global Competitiveness Report 2019; 2. Source: World Bank – Doing Business 2020 Report; 3. Source: World Bank – The Worldwide Governance Indicators 2019 Update; 4. Source: Transparency International – Corruption Perceptions Index 2019 Report
World ldwid ide Govern ernance e Indica icators tors3 Ease se of Doing ing Busine iness ss2 Globa
petitiven enes ess s Index ex1 Corru ruption ption Perceptio ception Index ex4
Higher rank is better Higher score is better Higher rank is better (rankings at the time of annual report publication) Higher rank is better 41 36 45 50 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Rank India Indonesia Philippines Bulgaria Colombia 91 72 73 73 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Indonesia India Philippines Bulgaria Colombia
*New Concepts by using the Global Competitiveness index 4.0 which captures the determinants of long-term growth.
52 28 59 51 43 46 15 30 45 60 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Voice and Accountability Political Stability/Absence of Violence Government Effectiveness Regulatory Quality Rule of Law Control of Corruption 38 40 41 41 36 34 42 43 36 37 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Indonesia India Philippines Bulgaria Colombia
6
Continuou tinuous s Improvem ement nt of Investmen estment t Clima imate e
…another
ng Busines ness (EODB)*
EoDB DB 2020 Rank EoDB DB 2019 Rank Change e in Rank EoDB DB 2020 Points ts EoDB DB 2019 Points ts Change e in Points ts
Ove verall rall 73 73 73 73 69.6 .6 68.0 .0 1.6 Startin ting g a busines ess 140 40 134 134 6 81.2 1.2 81.2 1.2 0.0 Dealing ling with Constr truct uction ion Pe Permit its 110 112 2 66.8 .8 66.6 .6 0.2 Gett tting ing Electri tricit ity 33 33 33 33 87.3 .3 86.4 .4 0.9 Registerin ering g Proper erty ty 106 100 6 60.0 .0 61.7 .7 1.7 Gett tting ing Credit it 48 48 44 44 4 70.0 .0 70.0 .0 0.0 Prot
ting ng Minor
ity Inves vestor
37 37 51 51 14 70.0 .0 63.3 .3 6.7 Paying ing Taxes 81 81 112 31 75.8 .8 68.0 .0 7.8 Trading ing Acros
116 116 67.5 .5 67.3 .3 0.2 Enfor
ing Contrac racts 139 139 146 7 49.1 47.2 .2 1.9 Resolvin lving g Insolv lven ency 38 38 36 36 2 68.1 67.9 .9 0.2
Source: World Bank * Higher rank is better, EoDB 2020 was published in October 2019
7
BBB / Stable Baa2 2 / Stable BBB / Stable
Feb 2020, Rating g Affi firm rmed at Baa2/St Stabl ble “The affirmation of the ratings is underpinned by a number of credit strengths – including Indonesia’s robust and stable growth rates and a low government debt burden, preserved by consistent fiscal discipline and emphasis on macroeconomic stability – as well as persistent credit challenges.” May 2019, Rating Upgra grade ded at BBB/St Stabl ble “We raised the ratings to reflect Indonesia’s strong economic growth prospects and supportive policy dynamics, which we expect to remain following the re-election of President Joko Widodo recently.” January ry 2020, Rating Affi firm rmed d at BBB/St Stable Indonesia's rating balances a favourable medium-term growth outlook and a small government debt burden compared with 'BBB’ category peers against challenges that include a strong dependence on external financing, low government revenue, and lagging structural indicators such as governance indicators and GDP per capita.
BBB+ BBB+ / Stable
January ry 2020, Rating Upgra grade ded at BBB+/St Stable “The ratings mainly reflect the country’s solid domestic consumption-led economic growth, restrained budget deficit and public debt, and resilience to external shocks supported by flexible exchange rate and credible monetary policies and accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. Since its previous rating review, JCR has been paying particular attention to the continuing reform initiatives pushed by the administration of President Joko Widodo and the content and progress of the economic policy taken by his second administration which took office in October
expected.”.
BBB+ / Stable
March 2020, Rating g Upgra graded ded at BBB+/St Stabl ble “The upgrade reflects the firm implementation of policies to strengthen economic growth potential on the back of a solidified political foundation. As the global spread of the novel coronavirus could strain growth in the Indonesia economy, the government and the central bank are working to shore up the economy and maintain macroeconomic stability. Given the country’s underlying economic strength which remains intact, R&I expects the economy to start to recover if the epidemic is brought under control”
Indone nesia sia Has s Been Rated ed as Investmen stment t Grade de Countr ntry sinc nce e 2017
8
Con
certed ed Effor
ts to
tigate Covi vid-19 9 Risk
General al Measures ures
Establishment of a COVID-19 Task Force to Accelerate Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Handling Extension of the emergency status for COVID-19 until 29th May 2020 Permission for civil servants to work from home, while maintaining the continuity of public services Closing and limiting the mobility of Indonesian citizens abroad and foreigners to enter Indonesian territory with strict immigration and health protocols..
5 3 2 1
Evacuation of Indonesian citizens from affected countries and strict quarantine processes with complete medical facilities.
6
Promoting massive prevention of the spread of Covid-19; application of health protocols in public areas, public transportation, and offices; calls for carrying out social distancing and the prohibition of carrying out activities that involve large crowds.
4
Conducting Rapid Test in 17 provinces with positive patients
7
Decentralized tests by increasing the number of Covid-19 test laboratories throughout Indonesia. Providing Designated Hospitals, including additional designated hospital in Galang Island. Utilization of four (4) of ten (10) Wisma Atlet Kemayoran Towers (former Athletes Hotel) as emergency hospital. Establishment of Contingency Plans in the regions level.
12 10 9 8
Preparation of drugs that have been used for Covid-19 patients in China according to doctor's prescription. The drug has been distributed to designated facilities and its stock is continuously being augmented with domestic pharmaceutical production..
13
Preparation of 606 health workers and 192 non-health workers in Wisma Atlet Kemayoran and recruitment of 328 medical volunteers and 2590 non-medical personnel in the field of logistics and operations.
11
Speed up the procurement and distribution of personal protective equipment for designated hospitals and the provision of incentives for medical personnel.
14
9
Government ernment Measur asures es to
tigate e Covid vid-19 Risk
Fisc scal and Non Fisc scal al Stimuli muli
Brought forward the launch of the Pre-Employment Card in Bali, North Sulawesi and the Riau Islands Increased disbursements of the Noncash Food Assistance Program (BPNT) from Rp150,000 to Rp200,000 for a six- month period commencing March 2020 Provided incentives for domestic and international travellers Discounted the price of aviation fuel at airports located around nine travel destinations for March-May 2020
6 4 2 1
Reduced the air passenger service fee (PSF) by 20% for March-May 2020
5
Subsidised or provided grants totalling Rp3.3 trillion to local governments affected by lower tax revenues food service activities
7
Provided a stimulus package for housing in the form of an Rp800 billion subsidy as well as a subsidy on down payments totalling Rp700 billion
3
Non Non-Fisc iscal Stimuli li
Relaxation of Income Tax (PPh Article 21) Relaxation of Income Tax on Imports (PPh Article 22) Relaxation of Value Added Tax (VAT) Restitution
4 2 1
Relaxation of Income Tax (PPh Article 25)
3
Reduce and simplify restrictions on export activities to maintain export performance and competitiveness
1
Reduce and simplify restrictions on import activities to ensure the availability of raw materials
2
Fiscal l Stimul muli i Phase e 2 Fiscal l Stimuli li Phase e 1
10
Bank Indonesia’s Meas easure ures to
tigat gate Covi vid-19 9 Risk
To mainta ntain n Monet etary y and Fina nanci ncial Mark rket t Stability
Strengthening the intensity of triple intervention policy to maintain rupiah exchange rate stability in line with the currency's fundamental value and market mechanisms Reducing the foreign currency reserve requirement ratio for conventional commercial banks from 8% to 4%, effective 16th March 2020. Reducing the rupiah reserve requirement ratio by 50bps for banks engaged in export-import financing activity in coordination with the Government. Expanding the types of underlying transactions available to foreign investors as hedging alternatives against rupiah holdings in Indonesia.
4 3 2
Measu asures s Launched hed on March 2, 2020 Measu asures s Launched hed on March 18-19, , 2020
1
Source: Bank Indonesia
Global investors may utilise global and domestic custodian banks for investment activity in Indonesia.
5
Strengthening the intensity of triple intervention policy to maintain rupiah exchange rate stability in line with the currency's fundamental value and market mechanisms. Extending the SBN repo tenor to 12 months and providing daily auctions to loosen rupiah liquidity in the banking industry. Increasing the frequency of FX swap auctions for 1, 3, 6 and 12- month tenors from three times per week to daily auctions in
Expediting the enforcement of domestic vostro rupiah accounts for foreign investors as underlying transactions for Domestic NDF, thus increasing hedging alternatives against rupiah holdings.
5 3 2 1
Expanding the incentive of a 50bps looser daily rupiah reserve requirement beyond banks that are engaged in export-import financing to include the financing of MSMEs and other priority sectors.
6
Strengthening foreign currency term deposit instruments in order to enhance foreign currency liquidity management in the domestic market.
4
Strengthening payment system policy to support COVID-19 mitigation efforts .
7
11
3,2 3,5 3,7 3,7 4,5 10,1 10,1 11,6 11,9 23,0 25,2 32,9 36,4 44,6 47,8 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 Australia Germany Singapore Korea Taiwan Malaysia Myanmar Mexico Philippines US Indonesia Thailand Vietnam China India 31,31 34,47 23,61 26,94 24,99 26,57 31,27 34,52 22,48 27,21 24,95 26,34 31,78 34,55 23,14 29,56 25,31 26,26 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam 2018 2019e 2020e
50 100 150 200 250 300 Billion USD 2018 2017 22,5 25,2 26,3 31,9 32,1 34,2 36,4 36,4 38,5 39,2 39,8 48,1 48,7 58,3 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Myanmar Taiwan South Korea Philippines Hong Kong Malaysia Australia Japan Thailand Singapore Vietnam Indonesia India China
Indone nesia sia Remai mains ns the Investmen stment t Dest stinati ination
ice
1. Source: The Economist – Asia Business Outlook Survey 2019 2. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, Database October 2019 3. Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) – World Investment Report 2019 4. Source: JBIC – Outlook for Japanese Foreign Direct Investment (30th Annual Survey)
Total Inve vestm tment / GDP DP (%)
Indonesi esia Enjoys
estment ents Relative e to Peers within the Region
JBIC: Among g ASEAN countries, es, Indonesi esia is one of the most preferred place e for business ess invest estment (Decemb ember 2019)4 The Econom
esia rounds out the top five of Asian economies es that can look forwar ward to increas eased ed invest estment ent spending.
y 2019)1
% of surveyed who consider each country has promising prospects
UNCTAD: D: Indonesi esia is listed ed in the top 20 host economies es based ed on FDI inflo flows ws, 2017 and 2018 (June 2019) 2019)3
(x) = 2017 ranking
12
Medium um-Term erm Nation ional al Developm lopmen ent t Plan n (RPJM JMN) N) 2020 2020-2024
President’s Vision: "The Establishment of an Advanced Sovereign, Independent and Personality Based
ual Coopera rati tion". n".
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
1
Improvin ing the Qualit ity of the Indon
esian Labou
Force ce
2
Achie ieving ing Prod
ctive, , Indepen ependen ent t and Comp mpetit etitiv ive e Eco conomic mic Struct cture
3
Atta tain inin ing Equitabl quitable and Pros
perous Nati tion
Develop elopme ment
4
Achie ieving ing Sust staina inable Enviro ironment mental Climat ate
5
Devel elop
ing Cultu tural Prog
ess Reflecti ting g the Nation ion's Personalit ity
6
Develop evelopin ing a a Dignified ed and Trust stwor worth thy y Lega egal Sys ystem em Free Free from
7
Protect
ion of All All Nati tion
and Prov
sion of Secu curit ity y to All Citizen ens
8
Attain ining Good
, Ef Effecti ective, , and and Reliable Govern ernance
9
Achie ieving ing Synerg ergy y of Gov
ernmen menta tal Framewo mework with the Region
ent Stren ength then ening ing Econ conomi
c Resi esilien ence ce to Achie ieve Superio perior Econ
Devel elop
ing Mor
e Remo mote Region gions to to Reduce e Econ
ps and Improv
qualit ity Impr prov
ment of Qualit ity and Compet mpetit itiv ivenes ess of the e Labour Force ce Enga gaging ing in Menta tal Revolu evoluti tion and Cultu ture e Devel elop
ment Stren ength then ening ing Infrastructu cture e to
pport
conomi mic Devel velopm pmen ent t and Improv prove Basi sic Services ces Conse servati tion
ironmen ment, t, Supp pporti ting Clima mate te Change, e, and Enhanci cing Disa saster ter Resil silie ience ce Enhanci cing Polit itical, ical, Lega egal, Defen ense e and Stab ability ty and Transformi
ic Servi vice ces
1
HR HR Develo lopmen ent
2
Infrastruc ucture Develo lopmen ent
3
Regulat lation ion Simp mplif ific ication
5
Econom
c Tran ansformation
4
Simplifi lifica cation ion of Bureau aucr cracy cy
Presid esident‘s Miss ssions Top 5 Presid esidentia tial l Prio ioriti ities 7 7 RP RPJM JMN N De Development Agenda
13
Simplify plifying ing Regulat ulations ions throu
gh Omnibu ibus s Laws
Omnibus us Laws Group p a D Diverse Range of Issues sues into Legisl slati tion, n, Aimed d at Creati ting ng Jobs and Empoweri ering ng SMEs. s.
1Under discussionSource: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
Financial Sector1 T axes
Investment
Labour
Omni Omnibus Law Pri riori
ctors
1) Simplification ofLicensing 2) Investment Requirements 3) Employment 4) Ease, Empowerment and Protection of MSMEs 5) Ease of Doing Business 6) Research and Innovation Support 7) Government Administration 8) Imposition of Sanctions 9) Land Acquisition 10) Government Investment and Projects 11) Economic Zone
11 Cluster ters s of Omnibu bus s Law Cipta Lapa pangan Kerja (Job Creati tion
) 6 Pillars of Omnibus Law w Perpa pajakan (Taxa xati tion
1) Investment Funding 2) Territorial System 3) Personal Taxpayer 4) Taxpayer Compliance 5) Equity of Business 6) Taxation Facility Following the inauguration of his second presidential term in October 2019, President Joko Widodo announced his administration’s plans to continue regulatory reform by focusing on initiatives such as developing a dynamic and qualified workforce, promoting industry cooperation through technology, further enhancing infrastructure development and economic reform as well as simplifying regulations and bureaucracy. To achieve such ends, President Widodo’s Government subsequently prepared three bills of omnibus laws, namely an omnibus bill on job creation, an omnibus bill on development and strengthening the financial sector and an omnibus bill on tax provision. Omnibus laws refer to laws that group diverse and unrelated issues which are drawn into a bill which is accepted in a single vote by a legislature.
14
The Economic
icy Pa Packages ages
“To improve national industry competitiveness, export and investment to generate significant economic growth”
Phase e III I (7 Oct t ’15) Financial services facilitation, export financing and elimination of business unnecessary burden Phase e IV (15 Oct t ’15) Social safety net and betterment of people welfare Phase e V (22 Oct t ’15) Improving industry and investment climate through tax incentives and deregulation on sharia banking
Harmoni nizing ng Regul ulat ation
Simplifying g Bureau eaucrat atic Proc
ess Ensurin uring g Law Enfor nforceab eability
Phase e VI (5 Nov ’15) Stimulating economic activities in border areas and facilitating strategic commodities availability Phase e I (9 (9 Sept pt ’15) Improving national industry competitiveness Phase e II (29 Sept ’15) Easing permit requirement and simplifying export proceeds requirement Phase se VII I (7 De Dec ’15) Stimulating business activities in labor-intensive industries nation-wide through incentives in the form of accelerating land certification process for individuals Phase se VIII II (21 De Dec ’15) Resolving land acquisition disputes, intensifying domestic oil production, stimulating domestic parts and aviation industries Phase se IX (27 Jan ’16) Accelerating electricity generation, stabilizing meat prices and improving rural–urban logistics sector Phase e X (11 Feb ’16) Revising the Negative investment List and improving protection for SMEs Phase se XI (29 29 Mar ’16) Stimulating national economy through facilitation to SMEs and industries Phase e XII II (28 28 Apr’16) Improving Indonesia’s rank on Ease of Doing Business (EODB) Phase e XIII I (24 Aug ’16) Low Cost Housing for Low-Income Communities Phase e XI XIV (10 Nov ’16) Roadmap for E-commerce
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
Phase e XV (15 Jun ’17) Improving logistics In addit ition
icy Packages kages, , on Augus ust 31, 2017 7 the Gover ernment nment has issued sued a Presi sident ential ial Regulat ulation ion No.91/2017 1/2017 for enhanc ancing ing busines siness s license cense service ice stand ndard ard Phase e XVI (1 (16 Nov ’18) Improving the competitiveness and domestic economy
15
Improving ving the Compe peti titiv tiven eness ess and Domes esti tic c Econom
The 16th
th Econom
y Pac Packa kage has been launched hed
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
TAX HOLIDAY DAY EXPANSI SION
Backgr groun
In order to further increase investment value in Indonesia, there is a need for expansion of sector and standard classification of Indonesian Business Fields (KBLI) that are given tax holiday, complemented with a process simplification to receive the tax holiday according to the Online Single Submission (OSS). Objecti tives es and benefit its 1) Increasing investment and strengthening the industrial sectors from the downstream to the upstream through the expansion of the business sector, KBLI’s pioneer industries, and Special Economic Zones (SEZ) that can receive tax holiday facilities 2) Increasing the process of convenience of filing process and tax holiday facilities provision
EXPORT PROCEEDS DS (DHE) SCHEME
Tax Rates es on Deposit Inter eres est Incom
Tax Rates es on Deposit Inter eres est Incom
16
Progr gress ess of the Economic
icy Pa Packages ages*
Initially, there are 236 regulations which need to be deregulated As of October 1st, 2019, deregulation of 223 regulations are finished (99%), comprising 53 regulations at Presidential level and 170 regulations at Ministerial/Institutional level Total regulation which are still discussed: 2
I–XII
223 23
SET SET
99% 99% 11 11
REVOKE OKED REGULA ULATIO IONS
2
ON GOIN ING DISCUS CUSSION ION
1%
171 171 TOTAL
170
MINISTERIAL/I AL/INSTITUTIONAL AL LEVEL EL
99% 99%
47 47 42 42
SELESAI AIPRESIDE IDENTIA TIAL
54 TOTAL
53 53 FINISH
ISHED ED
PRES ESIDENTIAL AL LEVEL EL
99% 99% I–XVI
FINISH ISHED ED
I–XII
236 36
TOTAL INITIA IAL REGULA ULATIO IONS NS
I–XVI
I–XII
225 25
TOTAL REGULA ULATIO IONS NS
I–XVI
Based on the further assessment, 11 regulations has been revoked from deregulation process Total regulation subject to be deregulated: 225 regulations
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs *as of October 1st, 2019
17
Other er Progress
ic Polic licy y Pa Packages ages
29 Provinces have set 2016 Minimum Wage System in accordance to the Government Regulation (GR) No. 78/2015
Fair, , Simplified mplified & & Project ctable Wage Syst stem
IZ’s: Kendal, Demak, and Ungaran
in 2017
Indus ustrial trial Zone Developme pment nt of Spesial Economi mic Zone (SEZ)
Investment commitments in SEZ up to 2017 reach 41 T, with 3 hour licenses already applied in 4 SEZ’s Administrators in 2017 52 Bonded Logistic Center has been launched to support various industries
Deregul ulati ation n on Logist stics cs Sector
18
Investment estment Incentiv entives es to
st Industr ustry y Sect ctor
BUSINESS INESS EXPAN ANSION ION
llowa
ce
emption ption or relief ief of import port duty ty on capita pital l goods, , machine inery ry or equip ipmen ent for production purposes that can not be produced domestically;
emption ption or relief ief of import port duty ty on raw materi terials ls or auxil ilia iary ry materia terial l for production purposes for a certain period of time and certain conditions;
emption ption or suspe spensio sion of VAT on the e import port of capita pital l goods or machine inery ry or equipm ipmen ent for production purposes that have not been produced domestically for a certain period of time;
reciation tion or amortiz
tion (part of tax allowance); and
perty tax reli lief ef, especially for certain business sectors in certain regions;
Tax holid
PIONEER NEER INDUS USTR TRIE IES SPECIA CIAL L ECONO ONOMIC MIC ZONE NE
llec ection tion of VAT and Luxury ry Goods
les Tax (PPnBM BM), ),
toms s tax exem emption ption,
lowance ce and Tax Holi liday,
spensio sion of Impo port t Duty ty,
port Duty ty for goods produced using local components of a certain level
INDUS USTR TRIA IAL ZONE NE FREE EE TRAD ADE E ZONES NES AND D PORTS TS MICRO, O, SMAL ALL, L, MEDIUM IUM ENT NTERPRISES ERPRISES (MSMES MES) E-CO COMM MMERCE CE
emption ption on import or delivery of capital goods,
port t Duty ty exem emption ption on machineries/goods/materials,
lowance ce and Tax Holi liday Exem emption ption of:
port t Duty ty
ry Goo
s Sales les Tax (PPnBM BM)
toms s duty ty Decrea creasing ing MSMEs Es Tax from 1% to 0.5 .5% of gross revenue
non-small ll entrepren repreneu eurs rs through the market place will be subject to 0.5 .5% incom come e tax and 1% VAT
ll entrepren repreneurs rs through the market place will be subject to 0.5 .5% incom come e tax
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
19
New w Tax Hol
iday y Pol
icy*
to boost t indu dustr stry y sector
Taxpa payer er
Pioneer Industry with minimum investment value of 1 trillion Rupiah (minimum investment value of 500bn Rupiah for telecommunication sector) Corporat ate Incom
reduc uction ion rate
Conces cession ion perio iod Transiti ition
After Tax Holid iday ay Not available 100% (single rate)
discretion 1. 500Bn – 1Tn : 5 years 2. 1Tn – 5Tn : 7 years 3. 5Tn – 15Tn : 10 years Pioneer Industry with minimum investment value of 500bn Rupiah Applied to 8 industry groups: (i) upstream basic metal industry; (ii) oil and gas refinery industry; (iii) organic basic chemicals industry; (iv) machinery industry; (v) plantation, forest, and fishery products processing industry; (vi) telecommunication, information and communication industry; (vii) marine transportation; and (viii) economic infrastructure Applied to 17 industry groups: (i) upstream base metal; (ii) oil and gas refinery; (iii) petrochemical (oil, gas,
(vi) pharmaceutical materials; (vii) semiconductor and other components; (viii) communication devices components; (ix) medical devices components; (x) machine manufacturing for industry; (xi) machine main components manufacturing; (xii) robotic components manufacturing; (xiii) ship components manufacturing; (xiv) airplane components manufacturing; (xv) train components manufacturing; (xvi) power plants; and (xvii) economic infrastructure
PROVIS VISIO ION BEFORE RE AFTER ER
5 – 20 years depends on the investment value (in IDR): 4. 15Tn – 30Tn : 15 years 5. ≥ 5Tn : 20 years 50% CIT reduction for the next 2 years 10 – 100% Tax allowance not provided Tax allowance for business expansion can be provided with terms and conditions applied
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs *) MoF has issued a new Tax Holiday policy through Regulation No. 35/PMK.010/2018 (PMK-35) dated 4 April 2018.
20
Enhan ancing cing Busin ines ess s License nse Servic ice e Stand andar ard
Presi side dent ntial al Regulati ation n to Ac Accelerat rate Ease of Doing ng Busi siness ness has been launche ched
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
Policy cy Goals
Improve efficient, streamlined, & integrated business license service standards Accelerate the business licensing process Provide business licensing process assurance in terms of the costs and lead times Increase coordination & synergy between central & regional government Overcome the barriers to doing business in Indonesia Implement integrated licensing process (single submission)
Main Policy cy
Forming a Task Force to identify &
barriers Implementing a licensing checklist for Special Economic Zones (KEK), Free Trade Zones (FTZ), Industrial Zones & Tourist Zones Utilizing data sharing
Business license regulatory reforms Implementation of the Single Submission system
1st
st Phase
2nd
nd Phase
Note: 1st and 2nd Phase are implemented in parallel
21
Improving ing Invest estment ment Climat mate
Online e Single le Submiss missio ion (OSS) Has Been en Launched hed.. ...
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
OSS is a web-based business licensing system intended to cut the red tape involved in obtaining business permits and integrated between the central government and regional administrations
Lorem Ipsum Suitable for all category, Enviro ironment ment & Forest stry ry Secto tor Electr tric icit ity Secto tor Public lic Works & Housing ng Sector tor Health th Sector
Indus ustry ry Sector tor Marine ne & Fishery ery Secto tor Medic icine ine & Food d Sector
Transporta
ion Secto tor Trade e Sector tor Infor
ation & Commun unic icati ation
Secto tor Other r Sector
Secto tors rs The Adva vanta tage ge of Using g OSS Business licenses can be secured in under an hour Standardized business licenses are available Ellectronically integrated The whole licensing process is monitored by the Task Force More practical Accessible at anytime and anywhere
22
(Pusat Logistik Berikat/PLB) is a facility provided by Ministry
Finance as part
the implementation of the 1st Economic Policy Package. PLB facility aims to improve efficiency and reduce the cost of transportation and logistics in Indonesia; support the growth of the domestic industry, including small and medium industries; increase investment; and to make Indonesia to become a logistics hub in Asia Pacific.
To To dat ate, e, 52 Bond
ed Log Logis istic tic Cen enter er has has be been en lau launche hed to to suppor
ario ious us industries stries.
Improving ving Investmen stment t Clima imate
…Bonded Logistic Center to Improve Indonesia’s Competitiveness
Oil il and ga gas, s, and mining ing indus ustry Food d & beverages verages indus ustry Auto- motive ive indus ustry ry Pe Personal
care/ home care e industry Textile ile (cott
indus ustry Small ll and mediu ium m indus ustry y Synthet thetic ic textile le (chem emic ical al substanc ances) industry. .
Bonded Logistic Center
Heavy vy Equip uipmen ent t indus ustry Defen ence indus ustry Aircraf raft t MRO RO indus ustry
23
Improving ving Investmen stment t Clima imate e
…revising the Negative Investment List
1 For total project value of IDR10bn and aboveBefore
Cold storage ge Restaurants, s, Bars Pharmace ceutica ical l Raw Materia ials ls Manufact cturing Sports Center, Film Proces essi sing g Lab, Crumb Rubber
Revision ision of "Partn tnership ip" catego egory y to refer to partn tners ership p with Micro,
Medium m Ente terprises ses (MSMEs) s) Grandfath ther er Law: w: If a parti ticu cular sector tor is tightened tened in future, e, existi ting g foreign gn invest estor r does s not t need to compl ply y with tighter ter stake Key Reforms ms in Negative e Foreign ign Investmen estment t List st Stren ength then en implementa mentati tion
gati tive investmen estment t law throu
ive roles es from ministr strie ies, s, agen encie ies s and regiona ional gov
ments
100% 49% 100% 51% 100% 85% 100% 95% 100% 33% 67% 51% 67% 67% 55% 67% 65% 67%
Distrib ibutio ion, Warehousi sing Priva ivate e Museum, m, Caterin ing, g, apparel el Manufact cturing, g, Exhibit bitio ions s & Conventio ions Toll l Road Operator
Teleco comm mmunica icatio ion Testin ing g Company Consult ltancy cy for Construct ctio ion1 Teleco comm mmunica icatio ion Provi vider er with Integrated ed Service ices Profess essio ional l Train inin ing, g, Golf Course Management, Air Transp spor
ices, s, Travel el Bureau
After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After 33% 49%
Introduc roduction tion of New Foreign reign Owners ership ip Regula lati tion
rategi tegic c Sectors ctors Source: Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM)
24 105,3 208,3
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 FDI DDI TOTAL
Investment estment Realization lization (Q4-2019) 9)
IDR tn
2013 2014 2015
Direct rect Inves estm tmen ents ts
2016
Mining ing Housing, g, Indu dustri trial l Esta tate, te, and Offic ice e Build lding ing Food
try Electrici ectricity ty, , Gas, s, and Water ter Supply pply US$635.8 35.8 mn mn US$1,501.9 ,501.9 mn mn US$269.3 69.3 mn mn US$683.7 83.7 mn mn US$1,490.3 ,490.3 mn mn US$293.5 93.5 mn mn Transporta portation tion, , Wareh rehou
e, and Telec ecom
cation tion
72.4%
US$465.5 65.5 mn mn
9.4% 6.0% 15.3% 19.6% 17.8% 190.4% Investme stment nt Realizat zation
Top p 8 FDI I Reali lizatio zation by Sectors tors (Q4-2019 vs Q4-2018) 2018)
Source: Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), compared to Q4-2018 period
2017
Rp145.4 5.4 T Rp159.4 9.4 T IDR10 105.3tn 5.3tn 434 434,463 463
9.6% 15.6% .6%
6.4% 18 18.5%
Q1-2016 Q1-2017 Q4-2018 Q4-2019 Q1-2016 Q1-2017 Q4-2018 Q4-2019
*
* * person 37 375,982 ,982 IDR20 208.3tn 8.3tn
12.0 .0%
Q4-2018 Q4-2019
IDR185 85.9tn .9tn IDR86 86.9tn .9tn IDR99 99.0tn .0tn IDR103. R103.0tn 0tn Chem emica cal l and Pharm rmaceu ceutic tical l Industry stry Meta tal, , Except ept Mach chine inery ry, , and Equipm ipmen ent Industry stry
2018 2019
Vehicle cle and d Oth ther r Transpo porta rtation tion Industry try US$256.9 56.9 mn mn
80.6%
Econom
ic Factor:
Strong
d Stable Growth wth Prospect spects Rem emain in Intact ct
26
Condu duciv cive e Envir ironmen
t Und Under erpin pinning ning Stron
g Growt wth Fundament amentals ls
Larges gest Economy in South h East Asia 4th Most Populous us count ntry in the World ld; 64% in produc uctiv ive age Manag ageab eable le Inflat flation ion Rate Rising ing Middle le Clas ass and Afflue luent nt Customer ers
From commod
ty-based sed to manufactu cturing and service ce sectors tors via infrastr structu ture developme
From consu sumpti mption
estme ment-led growth
via a stron
ger manufactu cturin ing sector tor and more investmen estment t initiatives iatives Polici cies es to mainta tain in purch chasin sing g power er to stimu mulate te domesti estic c economy
t of weaken ening ing macroe
conomic ic condit ition
Budget et reform m as a a part t of larger ger economi
c reform initiative iative Tax base e to be broadened ed from m
e dependen ency cy on commod moditi ties es Fuel subsi sidie ies s sign gnifican icantl tly y reduce ced and spen ending redirec ected ted to more prod
tive e alloca cati tion
Pruden ent t debt managem gemen ent
Refo form rm-Or Orien iented ed Admin inis istra ration ion
Three e main sources ces of financing ing for investm estmen ent t needs: s: State te and region
et, State te Owned ed Ente terprises ises and PPP Conti tinuing ing from 2015 15 polic icy, y, infrastr structu ture will be high gher than fuel subsid sidy Fiscal and non
iscal incenti tives es to attra tract ct infrastru tructu cture e investmen estment t and promote mote PPP Infra rastru tructure cture spend ending ing focuse sed on basic ic infrastru tructu cture e proj
ects ts
Large e and Stable table Econ
Consis sisten tent Budget et Refor form New w Economic
Structure High Infrastructu astructure Inve vest stme ments ts
27
Indonesia’s Strong GDP
Grow
th Prospe spect Stron
g GDP DP Growt
%
Institution stitutions 2020 20 GDP P growth
2020 Budget 5.3 Bank Indonesia 4.2 – 4.6 IMF (WEO October 2019) 5.1 World Bank 5.1 ADB 5.2 Consensus Forecast (March 2020) 4.8
Favou
rabl ble GDP P Growt
pared red to Peers rs2
1. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), ** Including non-profit household consumption 2. Source: World Economic Outlook Database – October 2019; * indicates estimated figure %
maintained in Indonesia. For the year, solid economic growth was recorded at 5.02% in 2019, albeit down slightly from 5.17% in 2018. The main driver of economic growth in 2019 was domestic demand, as export performance declined. In the fourth quarter of 2019, economic growth stood at 4.97% (yoy), down slightly from 5.02% (yoy) in the previous period.
exports languished on dwindling global demand and sliding international commodity prices. Domestic demand was influenced by stable household consumption, which grew 5.04% in 2019, relatively unchanged from the 5.05% posted in 2018. Household consumption was maintained in line with controlled inflation and upbeat consumer confidence.
institutions serving households (NPISH) to 10.62% from 9.10% in 2018. Domestic demand was also buoyed by strong investment performance, building investment in particular which grew 5.37% in the reporting period, similar to the 5.41% recorded in 2018. Services in the tertiary sector were the main locomotive of economic growth in 2019, led by communications and information, financial services and insurance as well as other services.
0,04 3,83 3,27 (2,07) (0,16) 3,74 3,31 (1,73) (0,36) 4,01 3,14 (1,81) (0,30) 4,01 3,19 (1,70) (0,41) 4,21 3,09 (1,69) (0,52) 4,20 3,06 (1,74) 5,12 4,94 4,93 5,05 4,82 4,74 4,77 5,17 4,92 5,18 5,01 4,94 5,01 5,01 5,06 5,19 5,065,275,175,185,075,055,024,97
1,0 3,0 5,0 7,0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 QoQ YoY 3,7 3,2 3,4 3,6 6,1 7,0 5,0 5,1 5,7 6,2 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 7,0 8,0 9,0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* 2020* Bulgaria Colombia India Indonesia Philippines
28
GDP Growt wth Brea eakdo kdown
GDP DP Growth th by Sector ctor (%, YoY)
By sectors rs 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot
Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot
Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot
Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot
Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot
Agriculture, forestry, and fishery 3.7 6.5 2.9 1.6 3.8 1.5 3.5 3.2 5.5 3.4 7.1 3.3 2.8 2.4 3.9 3.4 4.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 1.8 5.3 3.1 4.3 3.6 Mining and Quarrying 0.6 (3.6) (4.4) (6.0) (3.4) 1.2 1.0 0.2 1.4 0.9 (1.3) 2.1 1.8 0.0 0.7 1.1 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.3 (0.7) 2.3 0.9 1.2 Manufacturing 4.1 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.6 4.5 3.3 4.3 4.3 3.5 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.6 3.9 4.4 4.2 4.3 3.9 3.5 4.1 3.7 3.8 Construction 6.0 5.4 6.8 7.1 6.4 6.8 5.1 5.0 4.2 5.2 6.0 7.0 7.0 7.2 6.8 7.4 5.7 5.8 5.6 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.8 Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair of Car and Motorcycle 3.8 1.6 1.4 3.5 2.5 4.3 4.3 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.6 3.5 5.2 4.5 4.5 5.0 5.2 5.3 4.4 5.0 5.2 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.6 Transportation and Storage 6.3 6.0 7.0 7.5 6.7 7.4 6.5 8.2 7.6 7.4 8.1 8.8 8.9 8.2 8.5 8.5 8.7 5.7 5.5 7.1 5.5 5.9 6.7 7.6 6.4 Information and communication 9.7 9.3 10.6 9.2 9.7 7.6 9.3 8.9 9.6 8.9 10.5 11.1 8.8 8.3 9.6 7.8 5.1 8.1 7.1 7.0 9.1 9.6 9.2 9.7 9.4 Financial service 8.6 2.6 10.3 12.8 8.6 9.3 13.6 9.0 4.2 8.9 6.0 5.9 6.1 3.8 5.5 4.3 3.1 3.1 6.2 4.2 7.2 4.5 6.1 8.5 6.6 Other Services* 5.1 6.5 4.8 5.5 5.4 6.0 5.6 4.5 3.8 4.9 4.2 3.5 4.8 6.0 4,6 5.4 6.2 6.7 6.4 6.2 6.8 7.3 6.4 6.2 6.7 GDP GDP 4.8 4.7 4.8 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS) *Other services consist of 10 sectors (according to Standard National 2008)
GDP DP Growth th Based sed on Expend endit itures ures (%, YoY)1
By expen enditure re 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot
Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot
Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot
Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot
Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot
5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 Non profit HH. consumption (8.1) (8.0) 6.6 8.3 (0.6) 6.4 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 8.1 8.5 6.0 5.3 6.9 8.1 8.8 8.6 10.8 9.1 17.0 15.3 7.4 3.5 10.6 Government consumption 2.9 2.6 7.1 7.1 5.3 3.4 6.2 (3.0) (4.0) (0.1) 2.7 (1.9) 3.5 3.8 2.1 2.7 5.2 6.3 4.6 4.8 5.2 8.2 1.0 0.5 3.2 Gross Fixed Cap. Formation 4.6 4.0 4.9 6.4 5.0 4.7 4.2 4.2 4.8 4.5 4.8 5.3 7.1 7.3 6.2 7.9 5.8 6.9 6.0 6.6 5.0 4.6 4.2 4.1 4.4 Exports (0.6) (0.3) (1.0) (6.4) (2.1) (3.1) (1.5) (5.9) 3.9 (1.7) 8.4 2.7 16.5 8.4 8.9 5.8 7.5 8.3 4.6 6.5 (1.6) (1.7) 0.1 (0.4) (0.9) Imports (2.6) (7.1) (6.5) (8.6) (6.2) (5.0) (3.4) (4.1) 2.7 (2.4) 4.8 0.2 15.4 11.9 8.1 12.5 14.9 13.8 7.1 11.9 (7.5) (6.8) (8.3) (8.0) (7.7) GDP GDP 4.8 4.7 4.8 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 1. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), ** Including non-profit household consumption
29
Regio gional nal Econom
ic Growt wth
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS)
Solid domestic demand is supported by increasing income from inter-regional trade, such as in Sumatra. Meanwhile, economic growth in Kalimantan and Bali-Nusa Tenggara has been maintained as exports of primary commodities improved.
Exter ernal l Factor: r: Impr mproved ed Exter ernal Res esil ilie ience ce
31
1,97 7 (8,35) 35) (2,06) 06) 0,31 1
0,0
2 4 6 8 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1*Q2*Q3* Q4** 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019** Goods Services Primary Income Secondary Income Current Account (%GDP) (rhs) US$bn
Ext xtern ernal al Balance nce under r Control ntrol Support ported ed by Adequate uate Reserves erves
Current ent Accoun unt Deficit within hin Safe Thresh eshold ld Balanc lance e of Payment nts Portrait ait Substant antial al FX Reserves es to Mitiga igate Externa nal l Challe alleng nges es Trade Balanc lance Portrai ait
Source: Bank Indonesia Source: Bank Indonesia Source: BPS * Preliminary Figure ** Very Preliminary Figure
2015: Surplus US$7.59bn 2013: Deficit (US$ S$4.10bn) n) 2014: Deficit (US$ S$2.37bn) n) 2016: : Surplus US$8.83b 3bn 2017: Surplus US$11.83bn bnSource: Bank Indonesia FX Reserve ves as of February 2020: US$130.4 bn n (Equiv. to 7.4 month ths of imports ts + servicing of government debt) t) US$bn
2015: CA Deficit (US$ S$17.5bn) n) 2013: CA Deficit (US$29.1bn) n) 2014: CA Deficit (US$27.5bn) n) 2016: CA Deficit (US$17.0bn) n) 2017: CA Deficit (US$16.2bn) n)
2018: Deficit (US$ S$8.7bn) n)2018: CA Deficit (US$30.6bn) n)
2019: Deficit (US$ S$3.2bn) n)(8,12) 12) 12,38 38 4,28 8 129,18 18 40 80 120 160
5 10 15 20 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1*Q2*Q3* Q4** 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019**
Indone nesia' ia's Balanc nce of Payment nts
Current Account Capital and Financial Account Overall Balance Reserve Asset (rhs)
US$bn US$bn 2019: CA Deficit (US$30.4bn) n)
0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 OG Non-OG Total
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 FX Reserves (LHS) Month of Import & Debt Service (RHS)
Month US$bn bn
32
Exch change ange Rate e In Line e with h Fundame ament ntals als
Movem emen ent t of Rupia iah Rupia iah Exch change ge Rate te Fared red Rela lative tively Well ll Compared red to Peers ers
IDR/US$
The reba ebalan lancin ing of
eign gn capit ital al inf inflo lows ws to to dom
estic fina financ ncial ial mar arkets ets aft after er the COVID-19 19 out
eak ha has am amplified lified ex excha hang nge rat ate pr pres essures ures on
upiah iah sinc ince the he mid iddle le of
ebruary 2020
to increasing global financial market uncertainty, which has exacerbated exchange rate pressures on the rupiah, leading to depreciation since the middle of February 2020. As of 18th March 2020, the rupiah had depreciated by an average of 5.18% compared to the average level in February 2020 and by 5.72% (ptp). Compared to the level recorded at the end of 2019, therefore, the rupiah has depreciated by around 8.77% in line with weaker currencies in other emerging markets. Bank Indonesia will continue to strengthen rupiah exchange rate stabilization policy in line with the currency's fundamental value and market mechanisms. To that end, Bank Indonesia will increase the intensity of stabilization policy in the DNDF and spot markets, while purchasing SBN in the secondary market. To support exchange rate policy effectiveness, Bank Indonesia will continue to
adequate liquidity in the money and foreign exchange markets.
Source: Bank Indonesia
Rupia iah Exch change ge Rate te Volati latilt lty
YTD 20 2020 20 vs vs 201 019
1,89 1,55 0,21 0,02
1,14
0,0 5,0 PHP IDR JPY THB MYR CNY SGD EUR KRW INR ZAR TRY BRL point-to-point average
%
*data as of March 18th, 2020 18,1% 17,0% 16,1% 7,0% 5,4% 6,5% 6,1% 4,7% 22,3% 26,0% 14,2% 14,7% 3,6% 6,0% 11,5% 5,1%
12,9% ZAR BRL TRY IDR THB PHP INR MYR 2019 YTD 2020 Average YTD 2020
*data as of March 18th, 2020
15218 13952 14601 14798 14134 14254 14120 14064 13924 14.141 14.381 14.220 14.031 14.232 14.113 14.006 13.714 13.767 14.520
13.000 13.500 14.000 14.500 15.000 15.500 18-Mar 18-Apr 18-May 18-Jun 18-Jul 18-Aug 18-Sep 18-Oct 18-Nov 18-Dec 18-Jan 18-Feb 18-Mar 18-Apr 18-May 18-Jun 18-Jul 18-Aug 18-Sep 18-Oct 18-Nov 18-Dec 18-Jan 18-Feb 18-Mar IDR/USD Quarterly Average Monthly Average data as of March 18th, 2020
33
Ample le Line nes of De Defense nse Against nst Ext xtern ernal al Shocks ks
Ample level of FX reserves to buffer against external shock
FX Reserves as of February 2020: US$130.4 billion
South Korea rea
Renewed a 3 year KRW / IDR swap arrangement with the size of up to KRW 10.7 trillion / IDR 115 trillion in March 2017
Australia ralia
Renewed a 3 year A$/IDR swap arrangement of up to A$10 billion or IDR 100 trillion in August 2018
Chiang ng Mai i Initiativ iative e Mult ltilater ilaterali liza zation ion (CMIM IM) ) Agreeme eement nt
Entitled to a maximum swap amount of US$ 22.76 bn under the ASEAN+3 (Japan, China, and Korea) FX reserves pool created under the agreement
Came into effect in 2010 with a pool of US$120 bn
Doubled to US$240 bn effective July 2014
Japan
Renewed a 3 year USD22.76 billion swap line with Japan on October 14th, 2018
The facility is available in USD and JPY
IMF Global al Financ ancial ial Safety ety Net t - GSFN
Indonesia is entitled to access IMF facilities for crisis prevention to address potential (actual) BOP problem
Such facilities include Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL)
Bilat ateral eral Region ional al Global al FX Reserve
Ampl ple e Reserv erves es Swap p Arra range gemen ent
Source: Bank Indonesia
ASEAN Swap p Arrangemen ngement (ASA)
Entitled to a maximum swap amount of USD600 million under ASA
The first MoU on the ASA was signed in 1977 among 5 ASEAN Central Banks with total facility USD100 million
Doubled to USD2 billion in 2005
Singap gapore
Renewed a one year SGD/IDR swap arrangement with a size up to USD10 billion (equivalent) in November 2019
China
Renewed a 3 year swap arrangement and increased the size of swap line up to CNY 200 bn / USD 30 billion in November 2018
Malaysia ia
Established a 3 year RM/IDR swap arrangement with a size up to USD2 billion (equivalent) in September 2019
34
Solid lid Polic licy y Coordination dination
In Managing ging Financi ncial al Markets ts Volat atility ility
Source: Ministry of Finance Firs rst t Line of Defense State’s Budget Buyback fund at DG of Budget Financing and Risk Management Investment fund at Public Service Agency (BLU) (min. level Aware) State te Owned ed Enterp terprises ises (BUMN)’s Budget Related SOEs (min. level Aware) Social cial Secu curit ity y Orga ganizin izing g Agency (BPJS)’s Budget BPJS (min. level Aware) Second Line of Defense State’s Budget
State General Treasury Account (Rekening KUN) (min. level Alert) Accumulated cash surplus (SAL) (min. Level Crisis)
Gov’t Securities Crisis is Managem agemen ent t Protoc
tors rs:
licies s to address the crisis at every level :
Bond Stabil iliz izati ation
ewor
The e enact ctmen ment of Law No. 9/2016 regarding g Prev even ention and Mitiga gation of Financi cial l Syst stem em Crise ses as a legal foundation for the government to serves at the time of financial crisis in the form of Financi cial l Syst stem em Stabil bility Commi mmittee ee (KSSK SK) KSSK K member mbers: the Ministry of Finance, Bank Indonesia, the Financial Services Authority, and the Deposit Insurance Corporation Swap facility arrangements based on international cooperation Enhancing coordination between government institutions and continuous dialogue with market participants Implementing Crisis Management Protocol (CMP)
CMP
Implementing Bond Stabilization Framework (BSF)
BSF
35
Stren rengt gthen ened d Priv ivat ate e Ext xter ernal al Debt t Risk sk Managem ement nt
Regu gulati tion
ints Phase 1 Jan 1,2015 2015 – Dec 31,20 2015 15 Phase 2 Jan 1,2016 2016 – Dec 31,20 2016 16 Phase 3 Jan 1, 2017 17 & & beyond
Object ect of Regul egulation
Governs all Foreign Currency Debt Hedgi dging g Ratio < 3 months 20%* 25%** > 3 – 6 months 20%* 25%** Liqu quidity y Ratio (< 3 months) 50% 70% Credi edit Rating Not applicable Minimum rating of BB- Hedgi dging g transaction
eet hedge ge ratio not necessarily be done with a bank in Indonesia Must be done with a bank in Indonesia Sanction
As of Q IV-2015 Applied Extern ernal Debt ebt/GDP (%)
Debt Burden n Indic icat ator (Externa nal l Debt/GDP) Remains ains Compar arab able le to Peers Rating ing
Encou coura ragi ging Corpora porates tes Compli pliance ce on Hedgi ging Ratio tio & Liquid quidity ity Ratio tio
Source: Bank Indonesia
Liquid uidit ity Ratio io* Hedgin ging Ratio io*
*Data as of Q3 2019, with total population 2.602 corporates
Regulat ulation n on Prudentia ential l Principle le in Manag aging ing External nal Debt
Source: Bank Indonesia
Source: Moody’s Statistical Handbook, November 2019
23,9 36,2 20,0 39,9 57,3 23,0 36,7 20,9 42,9 56,5 21,9 37,0 21,4 42,3 54,3 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Philippines Indonesia India Colombia Bulgaria 2020F 2019F 2018
2.341 ; 90% 261 ; 10%
≤ 3 months
2.443 ; 94% 159 ; 6%
> 3 - 6 6 months nths
2.294 ; 88% 308 ; 12% Comply Not Comply
36
Health althy Ext xternal ernal Debt t Composition
Extern ernal l Debt bt Structure cture
Source: Bank Indonesia, External Debt Statistics of Indonesia, March 2020 *Provisional Figures
The e Structure cture of Extern ernal l Debt bt is Dom
inated ted by Long-Term erm Debt bt Extern ernal l Debt bt Remains ins Managea geable le Extern ernal l Debt bt to GDP DP Ratio tio & Debt bt to Export rt Ratio tio
Million USD % % % 11,5 17,1 11,3 12,0 5,4 10,2 5,9 3,0 10,1 6,5 8,2 10,1 10,4 7,7 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0 18,0 20,0 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000 350.000 400.000 450.000 External Debt External Debt Growth (rhs) 121,8 114,9 101,0 113,8 123,1 139,5 168,4 176,1 168,0 160,8 168,7 172,4 177,4 183,7 31,8 26,5 25,0 27,4 29,1 32,9 36,1 34,3 34,7 36,0 36,8 36,6 36,2 36,1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 External Debt / Export Ratio External Debt / GDP Ratio (rhs) 18,3 21,2 20,7 21,7 21,2 20,2 17,9 17,1 15,6 16,0 16,2 15,8 14,1 15,7 14,6 81,7 78,8 79,3 78,3 78,8 79,8 82,1 82,9 84,4 84,0 83,8 84,2 85,9 84,3 85,4 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Share Short Term External Debt Long Term External Debt 42,6 41,4 47,4 50,0 53,6 55,8 54,1 50,5 48,8 50,4 50,8 49,8 50,0 49,8 49,4 57,4 58,6 52,6 50,0 46,4 44,2 45,9 49,5 51,2 49,6 49,2 50,2 50,0 50,2 50,6 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Share Private External Debt Public External Debt
37
Managea geable ble Ext xtern ernal al Debt t Profile ile
Shor
ank corp rpor
ate e debt (non
) represe sents only ly 8.6% 6% of tot
nal l debt
Privat ate Short-Term1 Privat ate Non-Ba Bank nk External nal Debt Positio ion
Af Affiliati tion
Non Af Affiliati tion
US$154.3bn
76%
Debt US$19.2bn
9.4%
US$12.1bn
6% 6%
e
US$17.5bn
8.6%
e
Public lic Long g Term 1 Privat ate Bank nk
US$29 29.6bn
14.6% 6%
US$2 $203 03.0b 0bn
49 49.4%
US$48.8bn
24% 24%
External Debt Position as of December 2019
1 Based on remaining maturity
Source ce: External Debt Statistics of Indonesia, March 2020
US$410.8bn bn
US$207.8bn
50.6%
Debt
Fi Fiscal Per erforma
nce and F d Flexib ibil ilit ity: More e Fi Fiscal al Stim imulus ulus wit ith Pr Prud uden ent t Fi Fiscal al Policy icy
39
Integrat egrated ed Refor
m to Provide ide Higher her Qualit lity y of Economi
wth
Structura ructural reforms rms to enhanc nce pot
ential growth th and navigat ate through ugh challeng nges es
Source: Ministry of Finance
Successful execution of the Tax Amnesty Program improving tax compliance and widening tax base Implementation of Automatic Exchange of Information 0% VAT on service exports to encourage Indonesian service exports Deduction in tax for vocational training and research and development activities Introduction of Omnibus bill, revision on tax allowance and Indonesia Special Economic Zone laws to encourage investment, job creation and small business empowerment Non-tax policies aim to improve regulations, create fair and flexible tariff arrangements, strengthening supervision and inspection, optimizing management of state assets and improving services and quality of public services
Maintaining prudent fiscal policy Strengthening tax incentives scheme, including Tax Holiday Strengthening export proceeds scheme Ease investment licensing Increase threshold
foreign share ownership across a broad range of business categories Negative List
Investment relaxation Infrastructure acceleration Monetary policy to support macroeconomic stability Price stability and sustainable current account deficit Efficient and credible financial sector
STRENGTHENING POLICYMI MIX FI FISCAL AL MON ONETARY RY RE REAL SE SECTOR OR
Issuance
16 economic policy packages to maintain purchasing power and to drive investment Enhancement
competitiveness and productivity by accelerating infrastructure development, improving investment climate, raising human capital quality and encouraging industrialization Encouraging the development of potential productive sectors such as tourism and the digital industry. Establishment of a PPP Unit Active support for PPP (Viability Gap Fund, Project Development Facility, Guarantees, Infrastructure Financing Fund, Availability Payment) Establishment of special State Asset Management Agency (LMAN) to expedite land acquisition process Reformulation of the Monetary Policy Operational Framework through: (1) Implementation of BI 7 Day Reverse Repo Rate; (2) Implementation of Reserve Requirement (RR) Averaging; (3) Implementation of Financial Market Deepening Program Continue to orient monetary operations towards maintaining adequate liquidity and supporting the transmission of an accommodative policy mix. Maintain accommodative macroprudential policy to stimulate economic financing with respect to the suboptimal financial cycle, while also adhering to prudential principles. Continue to strengthen payment system policy towards fostering economic growth through the expansion of QRIS (Quick Response Code Indonesian Standard) acceptance and electronification of social aid program (bansos) disbursements and local government financial transactions.
Streng ngthe heni ning ng Polic icy Mix to Enhanc ance Econom
ic Stabil ilit ity Amid id Glo lobal Volat atil ilit ity
Fisc iscal Polic icy Struc uctural Reform
icy
Commit itment ent to Infr fras astruc uctur ure
Mon
y Policy licy
40
Cred edible ible and Healthi althier er Budge get
…providing more certainty to all stakeholders
Indicator 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 Budge get Budge get Outloo
Budge get Econom
rowth (%, yoy)
5.4 5.3 5.2 5.3
Inflation
3.5 3.5 3.1 3.1
3-Mont
easu sury ry Bill (SPN) N) (%)
5.2 5.3 5.6 5.4
Excha hange Rate e (Avera verage ge, IDR/USD)
13,400 15,000 14,250 14,400
ICP (USD SD/ba barr rrel)
48 70 63 63
Oil Oil Prod
rrel el/day)
800 775 754 755
Gas Produ duction
rel/da day)
1.20 1.25 1.07 1.19 Macr croe
conomi
c Assu sumpti mption
8, 2019, 19, and 2020 20 Budget et
*Preliminary Source: Ministry of Finance
Desc scri ription
R Trillion)
2018 2018 Audited Realization
2019* 19* 2020 20
Budge get Realization
(a.o.
% Realization
to Budge get Budge get Realization
(a.o.
b 29) % % Realization
to Budge get
A. A.
Revenu nues and Grants ts 1,943.7 .7 2,165.1 .1 1,957.2 .2 90.4 2,233.2 .2 216.6 9.7
1,928.1 2,164.7 1,950.4 90.1 2,232.7 216.6 9.7
1,518.8 1,786.4 1,545.3 86.5 1,865.7 178.0 9.5
409.3 378.3 405.0 107.1 367.0 38.6 10.5
15.6 0.4 6.8 1,560.7 0.5 0.0 5.7
B.
Expend nditur ture 2,213.1 .1 2,461.1 .1 2,310.2 .2 93.9 2,540.4 .4 279.4 11.0
1,455.3 1,634.3 1,498.9 91.7 1,683.5 161.7 9.6
846.5 855.4 876.4 102.4 909.6 83.9 9.2
608.8 778.9 622.6 79.9 773.9 77.9 10.1
757.8 826.8 811.3 98.1 856.9 117.7 13.7
C. C.
Primary Balance
385.3
237.4
D.
Surplus us (Deficit) t)
.4
.0
.0
.2
20.4 % of GDP
E.
Fina nanc ncing 305.7 296.0 399.5 134.9 307.2 112.9 36.8
2020 2020-2030 2030 Improving Competitiveness
STRENGTHENING THE FUNDAMENTAL TRANSITION ADVANCE CED INDONESIA
2031 2031-2035 2035 Strengthening Competitiveness 2036 2036-2045 2045 Sovereign, Advanced, Just, and Prosperous Country Indon
esia ia 2045: Bec ecomin
g a Devel eloped
ntry
Fiscal Competitiveness Theme 2020 “State Budget to Accelerate Competitiveness through Innovation and Strengthening Quality of Human Resources”
Reven enue e Mobi bili liza zation tion Effec ective tive sta tate te spen ending ing Crea eativ tive e financing ing FISCA CAL POLIC LICY STRA RATEG EGY FOR R 2020
41
New and Strat rategic egic Programs
The polici cies s and ini niti tiativ atives es in State Budget t 2020 0 for Imp mprovem ement ent in human n resour urce qu quality y and comp mpeti etiti tiveness. ness.
Source: Ministry of Finance
Tax Incen centive tives s for supportin pporting g human reso sources rces develop elopmen ent t & compe petit titive ivenes ess
500 billion rupiah
Kuliah
Improv provem emen ent t In Human Reso source rce Quality ity and Socia cial l Assist sistance ce Indon
esian Smart rt Card rd Coll llege/ ege/KIP KIP Kulia iah Pre Workers rkers Card rd
Improving the job seekers’ productivity
Food
Supporting the poor people to achieve the higher education level Protecting the food access for poors
Accelera celerate ted completi letion
per priority iority tourism rism destina stination tions
The development of Danau Toba, Borobudur, Labuan Bajo and Mandalika, synergy among line ministries and local government
Stren engt gthening ing The e Transfer er to Regi gion
s and Vill llage ge Funds
Fund for social and marine transportation sectors;
equalization village officials’ fixed income and remuneration of Government Employees with Work Agreements (PPPK)
Endowm
ent Fund for Human Resou
rce and Cult lture re Culture Endowment Fund Higher Education Endowment Fund Significant additional endowment fund for research and development The Utilization of endowment fund investment to improve the the quality of higher education and promotion of national culture, through:
Supporting the reducing current account deficit in the short and long term
Stren engt gthening ing The e Curren rent t Accou count t Balance ce
42
In 2020, Budget t Deficit it will l be Maintai taine ned at level l 1. 1.76% GDP Dire
rect cted d to be h healthie thier r and adapti tive e to fa face the economic mic risks sks
Source: Ministry of Finance
deficit in the past five years
gradually to positive direction
competitiveness with the realistic and
productive spending
be utilized for competitiveness improvements
11,6 10,8 10,7 11,4 11,1 11.6 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Outlook 2020 Budget
TAX RATIO IO
(298,5) (308,3) (341,0) (269,4) (310,8) (307,2) (142,5) (125,6) (124,4) (11,5) (34,7) (12,0) (2,59) (2,49) (2,51) (1,82) (1,93) (1,76) (3,00) (2,50) (2,00) (1,50) (1,00) (0,50) 0,00 (400,0) (350,0) (300,0) (250,0) (200,0) (150,0) (100,0) (50,0) 0,0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Outlook 2020 Budget Budget Deficit (Trillion IDR) Primary Balance % Deficit to GDP
43
Stat ate e Revenue ue Optim imization ization
Followed d by t tax reforms
pporti ting ng the economy and business ss climat ate.
Source: Ministry of Finance
Impr mproveme ment t to Suppor
t Taxation tion
supervision through the strengthen IT system and tax and administration
refund
1.240,4 1.285,0 1.343,5 1.518,8 1.643,1 1.861,8 1.865,7 8,2 3,6 4,6 13,0 8,2 12,6 5,8 2,9 13,4 10,5 13,5 14,8
400 600 800 1.000 1.200 1.400 1.600 1.800 2.000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Outlook 2020 RAPBN 2020 APBN PPh Migas Pajak nonmigas Kepabeanan dan Cukai Pertumbuhan Penerimaan Perpajakan (%) Pertumbuhan Pajak nonmigas (%)
Tax Revenue e (Trill illio ion Rupiah) iah)
(35,9) 2,5 18,8 31,5 (5,6) (40,0) (30,0) (20,0) (10,0)
20,0 30,0 40,0
100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0 300,0 350,0 400,0 450,0 2015 2016 2017 2018 Outlook 2019 RAPBN 2020 APBN 2020
PNBP Migas (Triliun Rp) PNBP Nonmigas (Triliun Rp) Pertumbuhan (%)
(7,0) (5,0) 255,6 262,0 311,2 409,3 386,3 359,3 370,0
Non Tax Revenue e (Tril illio lion IDR)
and Efficient Natural Resources
Performance
The e role le of the non-oi
l and d gas s PNBP sector
continu inues es to be stren engthen hened ed accom
anie ied d by increa eased sed servi vices s to the commu
ity
Oil & Gas Custom & Excises Non Oil & Gas Tax Revenue Growth (%) Non Oil & Gas Tax Tax Revenue Growth (%) Oil & Gas (Trillion Rp) Non Oil & Gas(Trillion Rp) Growth (%) 2020 Budget Plan 2020 Budget 2020 Budget Plan 2020 Budget
44
Govern ernment ment expen endit diture ure in 2020
A bet better r spending nding to suppor pporti ting ng developme pment nt to be e effici cient nt and effecti ctive. e.
Source: Ministry of Finance
45
Centr tral al Governm rnment nt Expe penditure nditure
Dire rect cted d to suppo pport Human n Capita tal impr mproveme ment nt and severa eral strat rategi gic program rams
Source: Ministry of Finance
Human an Resou source Quality ity Impr mproveme ment
Smart Indone
ian Card (KIP IP) for Higher er Ecuat ation ion Supporting the poors to continue their education to higher education Pre-Em Emplo loymen ent t Card To Improve the productivity of job seekers
inabilit ility of healt lth h servic vice e provis ision ion (increased premium aid by Government)
Soc
ial Prot
tion Stren engthen henin ing
d acces ess improvem emen ent (Food Card)
Infrastructu astructure Developm lopment
super-priority tourism
46
Budge get t for Improving ving the Human man Resour source e Qualit lity
Highe her r qu quality of human an resour
es for achievi ving ng the welfare fare and just t society ety.
Source: Ministry of Finance
ional Educat cation
elopment (DPPN) PN)
18,0 T
degree level)
degree level)
ture re Endowmen wment t Fund Rp1, 1,0 0 T
Ensure the continuity of culture promotion for the next generation
earch ch Endowm wment nt Fund Rp5,0 0 T
and competitiveness
the university stakeholders
economic growth
Higher r Educati tion
Endowment wment Fund d
0 T
Human resources and education infrastructure for achieving the World Class University
47
The Nation ional al Budge get t is to Prep epar are the Younger ger Generation ration to Improve the e Quality lity of
man Resour sources es
Source: Ministry of Finance
Ed Educ ucati tion
udge get
Rp5 p508, 08,1 1 T
48
The Nation ional al Budge get t is Prepari paring ng the Youth th throu
gh Job Training ining
Source: Ministry of Finance
Total al Bud udget get Rp1 p10 0 T Target get 2 Bil illio ion pa partic icip ipan ants ts
Digital: 1.5 Mill Regular: 0.5 Mill
Definit inition ion of Pre-Emplo ployme ment nt Card
“It is a card given to job seekers or workers to get vocational training (skilling illing and re re-skilling) killing) and / or job competency certification"
Skilli lling ng Targets : Fresh graduate job seekers Objectives : skill adjustment, vocational skill to work Outcome : reduce unemployment Re Re-Sk Skill illin ing Targets : Workers who are laid off or potentially laid off Objective : to equip new/different vocational skills for new profession/entrepreneur Outcome : prevent unemployment from returning
Design gn of Imp mpleme ment ntati tion n of Digita gital and Regular ar Ac Access
choose the type of training through a digital platform (GoJek, Tokopedia, Jobstreet etc.).
Online (e-learning) and Offline (Class) Digita ital Training + Incentives
Certification in Government Job training Center (LPK) (including Vocational Center/BLK), Private LPK, and Industrial Taining Center Offline training (class) Regular lar Training + Certification + Incentives
49
Source: Ministry of Finance
Total Budg dget et Rp4 p423,3 23,3 T
Infrast rastructure cture Budget
To build d infrastructur nfrastructure and remot
Investme stment nt for accelera rati ting ng infr frast structure ructure developme pment nt (SOE and PSA):
Panggang – Kayu Agung
18, 18,758 km
Bridges ges
3
Airp rpor
ts
19,879 ha
Irrigati gations
238.8 km
Railr lroads
Interne rnet t Connec ecti tivit vity Develop elopmen ent t (Palap lapa a Ring)
systems
Clean an Water er &Sani nita tation ions
6,346 km
Roads
Housi using ng for r Low w Incom come Soci ciety ty
49 49
Dams
50
Source: Ministry of Finance
Subsid sidy y is Direct ected ed to Improve e Effectivi ctivity ty and Effic iciency iency throu
gh Attem empts pts in n Accur uracy cy Improvemen ement
En Energy rgy Sub ubsi sidy dy
Budget 2020 Outlook 2019 125.3 T 142.6 T
canister
in tariff groups.
customer of 450 VA and 900 VA
disparity
Polic icy :
Non
Energy rgy Sub ubsi sidy dy
62.3 T 69.8 T Budget 2020 Outlook 2019
fertilizer e-RDKK (Definitive Plan of Group Needs)
Polic icy :
ital al acces ess of Micro, , Small, ll, Mediu ium Enterp rpris rises es through interest subsidy of KUR
subsidy to encourage house ownership of low income people
51
Source: Ministry of Finance
Transf ansfer er to Region ion and Village lage Fund
Increased by Rp42.5 triliun from the Outlook 2019 that is directed to:
Impr mprovin ing basic ic public ic servic ice e deliv liver ery Ac Acceler leratin ating com
titiv ivenes ess Promo
ting productiv
spendin ding
the provision
public infrastructure and strengthen the quality of human resources, especially through education, health, drinking water, social protection, and inter- regional connectivity.
competitiveness through innovation, ease of doing business, governance, and incentive policies that support the investment climate.
regional economic potential.
52
Source: Ministry of Finance
Debt t Financi ncing ng Polic licy y 2020 2020
Debt fina nanci ncing ng that t is productiv ductive, e, effici cient nt, fulfills prude udent ntial al aspects cts and suppor pported d by good governance nance and risk sk management nt syst stems. s.
Debt bt Financing ncing Dire recti tion
Pruden dent
29.4 - 30.1 percent of GDP to support fiscal sustainability
intainin taining macro
lance e by maintain intainin ing the composition of domestic and foreign debt in a controlled limit and deepening the financial markets
Debt Fina nanci ncing ng Strat ategy gy
domestic bond market (financial deepening)
asset management.
53
Indonesia’s Tax Amnesty Program – A Suc uccess ess Stor
With th more than 965, 965,900 00 taxpayers parti tici cipati pating ng in the progra gram
Tax Amnesty sty Result lt (as s of the e end of March rch 31st
st,
, 2017) Redemption tion Money Asse sets ts Decla eclared red
114,2 18,8
1,7 Preliminary Evidence Payment 1% Redemption Money 85% Tax Arrears Payment 14%
Reven venue IDR R 134.8tn (~1.1% GDP)
3.323, 23,36 36 861,81 594,99 85,59 59 Individuals 68% Individual SMEs 18% Companies 12% SMEs 2%
Com
s Based ed on Asset et Declared red
0,04 0,15 0,20 0,62 1,10 0,58 0,17 0,12 0,04 Germany (2004) Belgium (2004) Italy (2009) Chile (2015) Indonesia (2016) India (1997) South Africa (2003) Spain (2012) Australia (2014) % of GDP 2,1 3,9 8,3 39,3 5,2 3,6 0,3
India (1997) Spain (2012) Chile (2015) Indonesia (2016) Italy (2009) South Africa (2003) Australia (2014)
% of GDP 3,698 98 1,036 36 147,1
Onshore Declaration 76% Offshore Declaration 21%
Repatriation 3%
Asset Declared IDR 4,881tn (~39.4% of GDP) Source: Ministry of Finance
54
2020 Finan ancin cing g Needs
Fulfilled d from m Government nment Securi urities es IDR 690.5 .51 1 tn tn (93.10%) 0%) and Loan IDR51.32 1.32 tn tn (6.90%) 0%)
Source: Ministry of Finance
Financi ancing need ed IDR7 R741.84 .84T
Budget Deficit IDR307.22T
Non-Debt Financing(nett) IDR44.62T
Investment Financing IDR74.23T Lending (IDR5.19 T) Liability IDR0.59 T Other Financing (IDR25.0T)
Matured Debt IDR389.98T
GS IDR301.19T 77.23% Loan IDR88.79T 22.77%
Financi ancing Sources es IDR7 R741.84 .84T
Domestic Debt 77.95%
Domestic GS Domestic Loan
Foreign Denominated Debt 22.05%
Foreign Denominated Bonds Foreign Loan
2019 Matured T-Bills Issuance
Gross ss GS
GDS GDS 70 70 – 75% 75% Sukuk uk 25 25 – 30% 30%
(Through auction & non-auction)
Projection
2019 2020 29.9%* 29.7%
Debt to GDP Ratio Realization
Note: *preliminary result
55
Govern ernment ment Securi riti ties es
Indi dicati ative Fina nanci ncing ng Plan for 2020
Source: Ministry of Finance
Issuance
Composition
GS Rupiah piah Domestic [82% - 86%]
Auction [76% – 80%] Non-auction [6% - 8%]
Forei eign gn Deno nomina minated ed GS GS International [14% - 18%]
GDS (tradable/ORI & non-tradable), Retail Sovereign Sukuk (tradable/Sukri & non-tradable);
comple plementary ry Avo Avoid id crowding ing out
The targ rget et amo moun unt can be be adjusted justed to the potential of
*in IDR Trillion
56
Government ernment Secur curit itie ies Finan anci cing g Realiz ealizat ation ion
As of Januar ary 31, 1, 2020 0 – in Million
Source: Ministry of Finance
*Dual-currency bonds issuance using SEC format amounted USD2 bn and EUR1 bn, settlement on January 14, 2020 (BI mid day exchange rate; 1 USD = 13,654 IDR & 1 EUR = 15,207.83 IDR)
(Million IDR)
Government Securities (GS) 154,271,076 20.97% Government Debt Securities (GDS) 124,271,076 22.86% IDR Denominated GDS 81,755,246
67,500,000
12,000,000
2,255,246 Foreign Denominated Bonds 42,515,830
42,515,830
30,000,000 15.64% Domestic Sovereign Sharia Securities 30,000,000 IFR/PBS/T-Bills Sukuk (Islamic Fixed Rate Bond/Project Based Sukuk) 30,000,000 Retail Sukuk
(ao. Feb 28,2020)
57
Disciplin ciplined ed and Sophistic histicat ated ed Debt t Portf tfolio
gement
Weig ighted ted Avera erage ge Debt bt Maturity turity of ~8. 8.5 Years rs Pruden ent t Fisc scal l Defic icit it
Source: Ministry of Finance
Well ll Divers ersif ified ied Acros ross Differen erent t Curren rencie cies
% of Yearl rly y Issuance Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance
Stabl ble Debt bt to GDP DP Ratio tio Over er the e Years rs
IDR Tn Government Debt / GDP (%) Note: *as of endo of December by using GDP assumption (interpolation) 265 265 362 362 407 407 442 442 358 358 (9) 19 19 (4) (20) 14 14 (7) (58) (69) (56) (66) (227) (298) (308) (341) (269)
0,0% (400) (300) (200) (100)
200 300 400 500 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 SBN (neto) Pinjaman DN & LN (neto) Non Utang (neto) Surplus (Defisit) APBN Rasio Defisit APBN thd. PDB (RHS) Non Debt (Net) Bonds (Net) Loans (Net) Budget Surplus/Deficit Fiscal Deficit (%GDP, RHS)
1.931,2 2.410,0 2.780,6 3.248,6 3.612,7 4.014,8 4.151,30 714,4 677,6 755,1 734,8 746,2 810,7 764,5 24,7% 27,4% 28,3% 29,4% 29,8% 30,2% 30,8% 0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0% 35,0%
2.000,0 3.000,0 4.000,0 5.000,0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Feb-2020 *) Bond Loan Debt/GDP Ratio [RHS]
9,8 9,4 9,1 8,7 8,4 8,5 8,5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Feb-20 ATM (in years)
57% 59% 58% 62% 62% 61% 31% 30% 30% 27% 27% 27% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jan' 20 Feb-20 IDR USD EUR JPY OTHER
58
Well Bala lanced nced Maturity urity Profile ile Wi With h Strong ng Resilience silience Against nst Ext xtern ernal al Shocks ks
Decl clinin ining g Interes erest t Rate te Risks sks Debt bt Maturity turity Profil ile Decl clinin ining g Exch change ge Rate te Risks ks Upcom coming ing Maturities turities (Next t 5 Yea ears) rs)
IDR tn tn
Note: using GDP assumption
Source: Ministry of Finance
14,8 13,7 12,1 10,6 10,6 9,8 9,7 21,0 20,7 17,5 19,2 19,7 16,1 15,5 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Feb-20 Variable rate ratio [%] Refixing [%]
227 265 213 211 282 121 139 141 133 208 122 143 96 94 150 42 99 27 89 62 26 23 20 29 28 -
133 153 169 165 159 154 121 122 123 83 50 44 27 23 17 34 8 27 32 3 2 2 34 23 30 30 19 37 26 55,5
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 IDR Denominated (Triliun Rp) Other Currencies (Triliun Rp) 10,7 12,2 12,1 12,1 12,3 11,3 11,9 43,4 44,5 42,6 41,3 41,0 37,9 38,5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Feb-20 FX Debt to GDP ratio (%) FX Debt to total debt ratio (%)
7,7 8,4 6,5 9,9 10,6 8,1 7,7 20,1 21,4 22,7 25,0 25,5 24,3 23,9 33,9 34,7 36,0 39,3 40,4 41,0 40,8
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Feb-20 in 1 year (%) in 3 year (%) in 5 year (%)
59
Holder lders s of Trada adable ble Centr tral al Governm rnment nt Securities rities
More Balance ce Ownership hip In Terms ms of Holders and Tenors
Forei eign gn Owners ership ip of Gov’t Domestic Debt Securit ritie ies s by Tenor
Hold lders ers of Tradable Gov’t Domestic Debt Securities
Source: Ministry of Finance
23,9% 22,5% 23,4% 20,3% 21,1% 28,5% 37,8% 39,9% 36,8% 42,0% 40,3% 34,4% 38,2% 37,5% 39,8% 37,7% 38,6% 37,1% Dec- ec-15 Dec- ec-16 Dec- ec-17 Dec- ec-18 Dec- ec-19 Fe Feb-20 Domestic Banks Domestic Non-Banks Foreign Holders
3,2% 3,5% 5,0% 4,3% 2,4% 2,1%
1,3% 5,3% 5,1% 1,9% 6,7% 7,7% 11,8% 17,8% 17,3% 18,4% 22,0% 22,5% 39,0% 37,4% 35,6% 36,8% 34,1% 33,4% 44,7% 36,0% 37,0% 38,6% 34,8% 34,3% 38,2% 37,5% 39,8% 37,7% 38,55% 37,09%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Dec 15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 28-Feb-20
0-1 ≥1-2 ≥2-5 ≥5-10 ≥10 %Foreign Ownership of Total
60
Ownership ership of IDR Trada dable ble Centr tral al Governmen rnment t Securitie urities
as of Februar ary y 28, 2020
1) Non Resident consists of Private Bank, Fund/Asset Manager, Securities Company, Insurance Company and Pension Fund. 2) Others such as Securities Company, Corporation, and Foundation. *) Including the Government Securities used in monetary operation with Bank Indonesia. **) net, excluding Government Securities used in monetary operation with Banks.
(IDR tn)
Source: Ministry of Finance Descr cripti ption
Dec-15 15 Dec-16 16 Dec-17 17 Dec-18 18 Dec-19 19 Feb -2020 020 Banks* 350. 0.07 07 23.95% 95% 399.46 22.53% 53% 491. 1.61 61 23.41% 41% 481. 1.33 33 20.32% 32% 581. 1.37 7 21.12% 12% 804. 4.41 1 28.47% 47% Govern ernme ment t Insti stitu tuti tion
Indon
esia**) **) 148. 8.91 91 10.19% 19% 134.25 7.57% 57% 141. 1.83 83 6.75% 75% 253. 3.47 47 10.70% 70% 262. 2.49 49 9.54% 54% 115. 5.13 13 4.07% 07% Bank Indonesia (gross) 157.88 8.90% 179.84 8.56% 217.36 9.18% 273.21 9.93% 350.23 12.39% GS used for Monetary Operation 23.63 1.33% 38.01 1.81% (36.15) (1.52%) 10.72 0.39% 235.10 8.32% Non-Banks 962. 2.86 86 65.87% 87% 1,239. 239.57 57 69.90% 90% 1,466. 466.33 33 69.83% 83% 1,633. 633.65 65 68.98% 98% 1,908. 908.88 88 69.34% 34% 1,906. 906.40 40 67.46% 46% Mutual Funds 61.60 4.21% 85.66 4.83% 104.00 4.95% 118.63 5.01% 130.86 4.75% 130.19 4.61% Insurance Company and Pension Fund 221.45 15.15% 325.52 18.36% 348.86 16.61% 414.47 17.50% 471.67 17.13% 482.50 17.07% Foreign ign Holders 558. 8.52 52 38.21% 21% 665.81 37.55% 55% 836. 6.15 15 39.82% 82% 893. 3.25 25 37.71% 71% 1,061. 061.86 86 38.57% 57% 1,048. 048.16 16 37.09% 09% Foreign Govt's & Central Banks 110.32 7.55% 120.84 6.81% 146. 6.88 8 6.99% 99% 163. 3.76 6 6.91% 91% 194. 4.45 5 7.06% 06% 189. 89.98 98 6.72% 72% Individual 42.53 2.91% 57.75 3.26% 59.84 2.85% 73.07 3.09% 81.17 2.95% 78.65 2.78% Others 78.50 5.37% 104.84 5.91% 117.48 5.60% 134.22 5.67% 163.32 5.93% 166.89 5.91% Tota tal 1,461. 461.85 5 100% 0% 1,77 773. 3.28 28 100% 0% 2,099. 099.77 77 100. 0.00 00% 2,368. 368.45 45 100. 0.00 00% 2,752. 752.74 74 100. 0.00 00% 2,825. 825.93 93 100. 0.00 00%
Monet etary y and d Fi Financia ial Factor:
Cred edib ible e Monet etary y Polic icy y Track k Rec ecor
d an and d Favoura urable ble Financial Sector
62
Bank Indonesia’s Policy Mix
To Maint ntain in Macroeco
nomi mic c and Financi ncial System em Stabil bilit ity
Source: Bank Indonesia
Implementing Macro prudential Intermediation Ratio (RIM) Implementing Macro prudential Liquidity Buffer (MLB) Electronification: Social program, e- payment for Government Financial technology National Payment Gateway (NPG) QRIS (QR Indonesia Standard) Expanding National Clearing System (SKNBI) services Developing market instruments for financing infrastructure Developing financial market infrastructures Rupiah Interest Rate Swaps (IRS) and Overnight Index Swap (OIS) Domestic non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) Developing the Commercial Papers (Surat Berharga Komersial) Controlling inflation: TPIP, TPID Structural reforms: Government Financial deepening & stability: KSSK (Financial System Stability Committee), OJK (Financial Services Authority) Coordinating efforts in reducing Current Account Deficit Accommodative monetary policy consistent with controlled inflation in the target corridor, while serving as a pre-emptive measure to maintain domestic economic growth momentum Stabilize exchange rate consistent with fundamentals Optimize monetary operations in
mechanisms and adequate liquidity in the money and foreign exchange markets
Monetar etary Po Polic icy Coordina dinati tion
with ot
Authorit horities ies Financ ncia ial l Market et Deepening pening Macro- pruden enti tial al Po Polic icy Paymen ent System em Po Polic icy
63
Bank k Indones esia ia Polic licy y Mix: : March h 2020
The BI Board rd of Governo rnors s agreed on 18th and 19th March 2020 0 to lower the BI 7-Day y Reverse e Repo
by 25 bps to 4.50%, %, Deposi
y (DF) ) rates lowere red 25 bps to 3,75% 5% and Lending ng Facili lity y (LF) ) rates lowere red 25 bps to 5,25%. 5%.
Continue to optimize monetary
to ensure market mechanisms and adequate liquidity in the money and foreign exchange markets Lowers the BI 7- Day Reverse Repo Rate by 25 bps to 4.5% Continue to strengthen coordination by carefully monitoring the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission and its impact on Indonesia over time, as well as the coordinated follow-up policies of the Government, Bank Indonesia and OJK required to maintain macroeconomic and financial system stability, while preserving economic growth momentum
Source: Bank Indonesia
Maintain an accommodative macroprudential policy stance and strengthen coordination with other relevant authorities in order to maintain financial system stability and catalyze the bank intermediation function Reinforced its policy mix towards mitigating the risk of COVID-19 transmission, while maintaining money market and financial system stability and catalyzing economic growth momentum Monetary policy remains accommodative and is consistent with controlled inflation in the target corridor, while serving as a pre-emptive measure to maintain domestic economic growth momentum.
64
Bank k Indones esia ia Polic licy y Mix: : March h 2020
Mitiga igating ting the ri risk of COVID ID-19 tra ransmiss smissio ion
To
engthen then coor
inatio ion and d the va vario ious s polic icy meas easures s alrea eady dy taken en, , Bank Indones
ia on March 2nd
nd 2020 introduce
arie iety of five e follo low-up polic icy meas easures s to main intain tain monetar tary and d financ ancial ial market t stabili ility as well ll as mitigat igate e the COVID ID-19 risk sks
1) Intensify triple intervention policy to ensure rupiah exchange rates move in line with the currency's fundamental value and market mechanisms. To that end, Bank Indonesia will optimize its intervention strategy in the DNDF market, spot market and SBN market in order to minimize the risk of increasing rupiah exchange rate volatility. 2) Lower the FX reserve requirements for commercial banks from 8% to 4%, effective 16th March 2020, which will increase FX liquidity in the banking industry by around USD3.2 billion and simultaneously alleviate foreign exchange market pressures. 3) Lower the rupiah reserve requirements by 50bps for banks financing export-import activity in coordination with the
expected to facilitate export-import activity through lower costs/fees. 4) Expand the range of underlying transactions available to foreign investors in order to provide alternative hedging instruments against rupiah holdings. 5) Reaffirm that global investors can utilize global and domestic custodian banks to conduct investment activity in Indonesia.
65
Bank k Indones esia ia Polic licy y Mix: : March h 2020
Mitiga igating ting the ri risk of COVID ID-19 tra ransmission smission
Bank k Indonesia
ard of Governor nors s Meeti eting g 18th
th and
d 19th
th March 2020 has rein
infor
ed its policy icy mix towar
ds mitiga gatin ting g the risk sk of COVID ID-19 9 transm smis issi sion
, while le mainta tain ining ing money y market et and finan ancia ial l syst stem em stabil ility ity and cataly lyzi zing g econom
ic growth wth momentum tum through gh the follo lowi wing g policy icy measures es:
1) Strengthening the intensity of triple intervention policy to maintain rupiah exchange rate stability in line with the currency's fundamental value and market mechanisms, including the spot and DNDF markets as well as purchasing SBN in the secondary market. 2) Extending the SBN repo tenor to 12 months and providing daily auctions to loosen rupiah liquidity in the banking industry, effective from 20th March 2020. 3) Increasing the frequency of FX swap auctions for 1, 3, 6 and 12-month tenors from three times per week to daily auctions in order to ensure adequate liquidity, effective from 19th March 2020. 4) Strengthening foreign currency term deposit instruments in order to enhance foreign currency liquidity management in the domestic market, while encouraging the banks to utilize the foreign currency reserve requirements lowered by Bank Indonesia for domestic purposes. 5) Expediting the enforcement of domestic vostro rupiah accounts for foreign investors as underlying transactions for Domestic Non-Deliverable Forwards (DNDF), thus increasing hedging alternatives against rupiah holdings in Indonesia, which has been brought forward from 1st April 2020 to no later than 23rd March 2020. 6) Expanding the incentive of a 50bps daily rupiah reserve requirement beyond banks that are engaged in export-import financing to include the financing
7) Strengthening payment system policy to support COVID-19 mitigation efforts by:
Indonesia from Rp600 to Rp1 and from customers to the banking industry from a maximum of Rp3,500 to Rp2,900, effective from 1st April 2020 until 31st December 2020; and
(BPNT), Pre-Employment Card and College Smart Indonesia Card.
66
Pri rinc ncipl iples s of Avera rage Reserv rve Requir irem ement nt Ratios
provement vement
Substance nce Old New Effectiv ective e Date a. Additional rupiah average reserve requirement for conventional commercial banks Fixed RR: 5% Average RR: 1.5% RR: 6.5% Fixed RR: 4.5% Average RR: 2% RR: 6.5% 16th July 2018 b. Annulment of demand deposit renumeration 2.5% (from 1.5% RR) 0% 16th July 2018 c. Implementation of foreign exchange average reserve requirement for conventional commercial banks Fixed RR: 8% Average RR: 0% RR: 8% Fixed RR: 6% Average RR: 2% RR: 8%* 1st October 2018 d. Implementation of average reserve requirement for Islamic banks Fixed RR: 5% Average RR: 0% RR: 5% Fixed RR: 3% Average RR: 2% RR: 5%* 1st October 2018
* Complemented by harmonisation feature to align with the average reserve requirement in rupiah feature for conventional commercial banks (e.g. Calculation period, lag period, and Maintenance period of 2 weeks)
to the monetary policy
framework reform implemented by Bank Indonesia since 2016.
August 2016 as BI7DRR replaced BI Rate as policy rate. This was then strengthened in 1st July 2017, by the implementation of the average reserve requirement in rupiah for conventional commercial banks at 1.5% out of the total 6.5% of GDP reserve requirement in Rupiah. The reformulation is also backed by various efforts in financial market deepening.
banking liquidity management, enhance banking intermediation function, and support efforts in financial market deepening. This multiple targets will in turn improve the effectiveness
monetary policy transmission in maintaining economic stability.
Consid iderati erations
rage Reserve ve Requir uirem emen ent Ratios ios Improve
ent t
Source: Bank Indonesia
67
Princ inciples iples of Macroprud pruden entia tial Interm ermed ediation iation Rati tio
R) and Macropruden prudenti tial al Liquid uidity ity Buffer er (MLB) B)
Striving to stimulate the bank intermediation function and liquidity management, Bank Indonesia issued Bank Indonesia Regulation (PBI) No. 20/4/PBI/2018 and Board
20/11/PADG/2018 concerning the Macroprudential Intermediation Ratio (MIR) and Macroprudential Liquidity Buffer (MLB) for Conventional Commercial Banks, Sharia Banks and Sharia Business Units. The policy is expected to stimulate the bank intermediation function to the real sector congruent with sectoral capacity and the economic growth target in compliance with prudential principles, while also overcoming the issue of liquidity procyclicality. The regulation is effective for conventional commercial banks from 16th July 2018 and for sharia banks from 1st October 2018.
Conside ideratio rations ns for r Mac acrop
rude dential ntial Instru truments ments Mac acropr
udentia ntial Interme ermedia diatio tion n Rat atio io (MIR IR) and d Macropr prude udential ntial Liquidit uidity y Buffer er (MLB) B)
1 2 3 4
This macroprudential policy instrument is countercyclical and can be adjusted in line with prevailing economic and financial dynamics.
Source: Bank Indonesia
68
Principles inciples of Macroprud pruden ential tial Int nterm ermed ediation iation Ratio tio (MIR)* )*
Regulati lation
MIR (Con
tional Comm mmercial ial Bank) MIR Shar aria ia (Shar aria ia Banks and d Sharia ia Business ess Un Units) s)
1 MIR Accounting Formula Credit + Owned Bond Deposit + Issued Bond Financing + Owned Sharia Bond Deposit + Issued Sharia Bond 2 Rate and Parameters Ceiling 94% Floor 84% Minimum Capital Adequacy Requirement 14% Upper disincentive parameter 0.2 Lower disincentive parameter 0.1 Ceiling 94% Floor 84% Minimum Capital Adequacy Requirement 14% For Sharia business units, the Minimum Capital Adequacy Requirement is the same as that of the parent conventional commercial bank Upper disincentive parameter 0.2 Lower disincentive parameter 0.1 3 Scope of credit/financing and deposits to calculate MIR / MIR Sharia Credit: rupiah and foreign currency Deposits in rupiah and a foreign currency: (i) demand deposits, (ii) savings deposits; and (iii) term deposits, excluding interbank funds Financing: rupiah and foreign currency Deposits in rupiah and a foreign currency: (i) wadiah savings; and (ii) unrestricted investment funds, excluding interbank funds 4 Source of Data Monthly Commercial Bank Reports Monthly Sharia Bank Reports 5 Criteria for securities held Corporate bonds and/or corporate sukuk Corporate bonds and/or corporate sukuk Issued by a nonbank corporation and by a resident Offered to the public through a public offering Equivalent to investment grade rating affirmed by a rating agency Administrated by an authorised securities institution
*As part of further relaxation on macroprudential policy, an adjustment will be applied starting from December 2nd, 2019
69
Principles inciples of Macroprud pruden ential tial Int nterm ermed ediation iation Ratio tio (MIR)* )*
Regulati lation
MIR (Con
tional Comm mmercial ial Bank) MIR Shar aria ia (Shar aria ia Banks and d Sharia ia Business ess Un Units) s)
6 Percentage of the securities held 100% 7 Criteria for securities issued medium-term notes (MTN), floating rate notes (FRN) and/or bonds other than subordinated bonds sharia-compliant medium-term notes (MTN) and/or sukuk other than subordinated sukuk Issued by a nonbank corporation and by a resident Offered to the public through a public offering Equivalent to investment grade rating affirmed by a rating agency Administrated by an authorised securities institution 8 Securities Reporting Offline delivery mechanism (email) 9 Scope of deposits to meet DD MIR /DD MIR Sharia Average daily total deposits in rupiah at all branch
Including rupiah liabilities to a resident and non- resident third-party nonbank, consisting
(i) demand deposits, (ii) savings deposits; (iii) term deposits, and (iv) other liabilities Average daily total deposits in rupiah at all branch
Including rupiah liabilities to a resident and non- resident third-party nonbank, consisting of: (i) wadiah savings; (ii) unrestricted investment funds, and (iii)
10 Relaxation of DD MIR/Sharia DD MIR Bank Indonesia may relax the provisions of the DD MIR/Sharia DD MIR based on credit/financing disbursement and fund accumulation The provisions may be relaxed based on a request from a conventional commercial bank, Sharia bank or Sharia business unit or a recommendation from the Financial Services Authority (OJK) Conventional commercial banks, Sharia banks or Sharia business units that receive the relaxed policy are exempt from sanctions
*As part of further relaxation on macroprudential policy, an adjustment will be applied starting from December 2nd, 2019
70
Adjustment ustment of Macropr prudent udential ial Interme ermediat diatio ion n Ratio io (MIR)/ )/Sharia Sharia Macropru prude dent ntial ial Intermed ermediation ation Ratio io (Sharia aria MIR)*
developments, BI is maintaining an accommodative policy mix to maintain the economic growth while also maintaining macroeconomic and financial system stability.
2019, which stimulated bank lending. Nevertheless, the macroprudential intermediation ratio (MIR) is again approaching the upper bound, thus necessitating efforts to increase bank lending capacity.
sources that are not included in the MIR ratio, for example the expanding share of loans/financing received by banks, BI decides to adjust MIR/sharia MIR policy in order to
lending.
comply with prudential principles. Therefore, BI is only encouraging banks with low non- performing loans and adequate capital resilience to expand credit/financing.
Polic icy Backgrou kgrounds nds
Source: Bank Indonesia
Bank Indonesia strengthens accommodative macroprudential policy through an adjustment to the Macroprudential Intermediation Ratio by including the loan/financing received by banks as a component of funding in MIR/sharia MIR.
business units as a source of bank funding in the calculation of MIR/sharia MIR.
are as follows: a. Loans/financing received in Rupiah and foreign currency; b. Loans/financing received in the form of bilateral loans and/or syndicated loans for conventional commercial banks, Islamic banks and Islamic business units; c. Loans/financing excludes interbank loans/financing. d. Loans/financing received with a maturity of no less than 1 year; and e. Loans/financing received based on a loan agreement.
from the Jakarta Interbank Offered Rate (JIBOR) to the Indonesia Overnight Index Average (IndONIA).
Main Regulatory latory Points ts
Credit it + Owned Bond Deposit it + Issue ued Bond + Loan/ n/Financ Financing ing Receiv ived ed Lower disinc incent ntiv ive param ameter er
MIR/sh R/sharia ia MIR MIR RR RR= Lower Disincentives Parameter x (Lower Bound of MIR/Sharia MIR Target – Bank’s MIR/Sharia MIR) x Deposit
Upper disinc incent ntiv ive param ameter er
MIR/sh R/sharia ia MIR MIR RR RR= 0.2 x (Bank’s MIR/sharia MIR - Upper Bound of MIR/Sharia MIR Target – ) x Deposit
*This disincentive applies for banks with CAR below 14%. *This adjustment will be effective from December 2nd, 2019
71
Principles inciples of Macroprud pruden ential tial Liquidit uidity Buf uffer er (MLB) LB)
Regulati lation
MLB (Conventional tional Comm mmercial ial Bank) MLB Shar aria ia (Shar aria ia Banks)
1 Rate 4% of rupiah deposits (including Sharia Business Units deposits) 4% of rupiah deposits 2 Components Securities denominated in rupiah held by a conventional commercial bank that may be used for monetary
Sharia-complaint securities denominated in rupiah held by an Sharia business unit that may be used for sharia- compliant monetary operations (including SBIS/SBSN) Sharia-complaint securities denominated in rupiah held by an Sharia bank that may be used for sharia- compliant monetary operations (including SBIS/SBSN) 3 Calculation Formula Percentage of rupiah securities held by a conventional commercial bank to rupiah deposits Percentage of sharia-compliant rupiah securities held by an Sharia bank to rupiah deposits 4 Flexibility Under certain conditions, the securities used to meet the MLB may be used for repo transactions to Bank Indonesia for open market operations, totalling no more than 2% of rupiah deposits Under certain conditions, the securities used to meet the sharia MLB may be used for repo transactions to Bank Indonesia for open market operations, totalling no more than 2% of rupiah deposits 5 Sources
Data
Deposits Monthly Commercial Bank Reports Rupiah deposits to calculate MLB are the average daily total deposits at all branches in Indonesia Rupiah deposits include: (i) demand deposits, (ii) savings deposits; (iii) term deposits, and (iv) other liabilities Monthly Sharia Bank Reports Rupiah deposits to calculate sharia MLB are the average daily total deposits at all branches in Indonesia Rupiah deposits include: (i) wadiah savings; (ii) unrestricted investment funds, and (iii) other liabilities
72
Relaxing ing the Loan-to to-Value alue (LTV) and d Financi nancing-to to-Value alue (FTV) Ratio ios* s*
The e LTV/F V/FTV relaxa axation tion is cond nduct ucted while le taking aking into
spects of prude udential ntial and consu nsume mer r protect ectio ion* n*
through housing loan, specifically by adjusting the LTV ratio for property loan and the FTV ratio for property financing for the 1st facility, 2nd facility, etc., making the largest LTV ratio for property credit and FTV ratio for property financing as shown in the table below.
“-“= The LTV rate depends on each bank’s risk management
mechanism to a maximum of 5 facilities without taking account of the orders
loan/financing disbursement of indent property:
Source: Bank Indonesia
*As part of further relaxation on macroprudential policy, an adjustment will be applied starting from December 2nd, 2019
73
Prude denti ntial aspects cts of Relaxing xing the Loan-to to-Value ue (LTV) and Fina nanci ncing ng-to to-Value ue (FTV) Ratios
1. The requirements of the LTV ratio for property credit and FTV ratio for property financing are as follows: i. The net ratio of NPL to total credit or NPF to total financing must not exceed 5%; and ii. The gross ratio of property NPL to total property credit or property NPF to total financing must not exceed 5%. 2. Banks must make sure that there is no loan transfer to another borrower at the same bank or different bank for tenors of less than 1 year. The requirements are valid for banks that will disburse pre-order property loan/financing. 3. Banks are required to comply with prudential principles when disbursing loans. 4. Gradual loan liquidation is only allowed for developers that comply with bank’s risk management policy (e.g.the business feasibility of the developer). 5. Banks are required to ensure that transactions to disburse loans (including down payment) and gradual liquidation must be processed through the debitor and developer/seller’s bank account.
LTV / F FTV Exempt mptions
Central government or local government loan / financing programs are exempt from this regulation.
Relaxing ing the Loan-to to-Value alue (LTV) and d Financi nancing-to to-Value alue (FTV) Ratio ios* s*
Source: Bank Indonesia
74
Adjustment ustment of LTV Ratio for Property ty Loans, ns, FTV Ratio io for Proper erty ty Financ nancing ing, , and Do Down Pa Payments ments on Automot motive Loans/Fin ns/Financ ancing* ing*
financing by 5% from current ratio as follows:
Source: Bank Indonesia
Bank Indonesia adjusts macroprudential policy in the property and automotive sectors by: (i) relaxing the LTV ratio for property loans and the FTV ratio for property financing; (ii) providing additional incentive on LTV ratio for green property loans and FTV ratio for green property financing; (iii) relaxing down payments on automotive loans/financing; (iv) providing additional incentive on down payments on green automotive loans. Polic icy Backgrou kgrounds nds Main n Regulatory latory Points ts
*This adjustment will be effective from December 2nd, 2019
response to global and domestic economic developments, BI is maintaining an accommodative policy mix to maintain the economic growth while also maintaining macroeconomic and financial system stability. This effort will be targeted to several potential sectors.
and automotive sectors which have a huge backward and forward linkages to other sectors in the economy, BI decides to relax LTV/FTV policy for property loans/financing and down payments on automotive loans in compliance with prudential principles.
development through green financing in order to reduce potential disruptions to financial system stability stemming from environmental degradation.
borrower with strong repayment capacity and low credit/financing risk.
75
FTV ratio for green property financing.
issued by a nationally
internationally recognized environmental institution.
following standards: i. For residential areas/buildings in certified green belt areas, each unit in the residential area/building is considered to meet the criteria. ii. In case that the residential area/building is not a certified green belt area, an evaluation will be conducted on each unit as follows:
assessment using the tools/applications provided by a recognized institution.
the assessment must be conducted by a recognized institution;
developer or group of developers, the assessment must be conducted by a recognized institution and the certificate must be submitted by the developer i. Additional incentive for green property on LTV ratio for property loans and FTV ratio for property financing is 5% from the LTV/FTV ratio presented in Table 2 as follows:
Adjustment ustment of LTV Ratio for Property ty Loans, ns, FTV Ratio io for Proper erty ty Financ nancing ing, , and Do Down Pa Payments ments on Automot motive Loans/Fin ns/Financ ancing* ing*
Source: Bank Indonesia
Main n Regulatory latory Points ts
follows: i. Relaxation on the down payments of automotive loans or automotive financing 5%-10% from current regulations; ii. The relaxation should consider the gross NPL/NPF ratios and gross NPL/NPF ratios on automotive loans/financing; iii. The adjustment
down payments
automotive loans/financing in points a and b is as follows:
*This adjustment will be effective from December 2nd, 2019
76
i. Additional incentive of 5% on green vehicles from the down payment presented in Table 5; ii. The down payment incentives considers the gross NPL/NPF ratios and gross NPL/NPF ratios on automotive loans/financing; iii. The down payment regulation for green automotive loans or green automotive financing in points a and b is as follows:
Adjustment ustment of LTV Ratio for Property ty Loans, ns, FTV Ratio io for Proper erty ty Financ nancing ing, , and Do Down Pa Payments ments on Automot motive Loans/Fin ns/Financ ancing* ing*
Source: Bank Indonesia
Main n Regulatory latory Points ts
Note: Adjustments of the LTV ratio for property loans, FTV ratio for property financing and down payments on automotive loans or financing will be effective from December 2nd, 2019
*This adjustment will be effective from December 2nd, 2019
77
Princ inciples iples of Domest estic ic Non Deliv iver erable ble Forwar ard (DNDF NDF) ) Transa ansaction ction
Purposes ses
1. To support the effort of stabilizing the Rupiah exchange rate through the additional of alternative hedging instruments 2. To support the development and deepening of the domestic financial market 3. To increase the confidence of exporters, importers, and investors in conducting economic and investment activities through the flexibility of hedging transactions against Rupiah currency risk
Genera eral Provisi sions
Domes mestic tic Non-De Deliv liverable ble Forwar ard d Tran ansa saction tion (DNDF Trans ansac actio ion)
Plain vanilla derivatif transaction of foreign exchange against rupiah in the form of forward transaction with fixing mechanism in the domestic market
Forward Trans ansac actio ions
Forward Transactions are sell/purchase foreign currencies againts rupiah whereas the delivery of funds shall be performed in more than 2 days after the transaction date
Fixing Mec echan hanism sm
Transaction settlement mechanism without full movement of funds by calculating the difference between rate on the transaction date and reference rate in JISDOR on a specified future time agreed in the contract (fixing date)
Other er Definit initio ions
The definition of derivative transaction of foreign exchange againts rupiah, Forward Transaction, Spot Transaction, Customers, Foreign Party is referring to Bank Indonesia regulations regarding foreign exchange transaction againts rupiah
Source: Bank Indonesia
78
Princ inciples iples of Domestic estic Non Deliv iver erable ble Forwar ard (DNDF NDF) Transa ansaction ction
Bank can perform
nsacti ctions ns as follows: ws:
Bank – Customer Bank – Foreign Party
Bank – Bank
Tran ansac saction tion bet etween en:
Can only be performed to hedge rupiah exchange rate risk.
lyin ing Transac sactions tions:
Includ cluding ing all foll llow
ing activ ivit ities ies : a. Trade of goods and services b. Investments, loans, capital, and other investements. c. Banks credit or financing in foreign currencies (specifically for transactions between bank and customers) Excludi luding g foll llowi wing g activ ivit ities ies: a. Bank Indonesia certificates; b. Placement of funds with bank; c. Unwithdrawn credit facilities; d. Documents of foreign currencies sales againts rupiah; e. Money transfer by fund transfer companies f. Intercompany loan g. Money changer activities.
2. Nominal of DNDF Transactions ≤ Nominal of Underlying Transactions 3. Tenor of DNDF Transactions ≤ Tenor of Underlying Transactions
Source: Bank Indonesia
79
Princ inciples iples of Domestic estic Non Deliv iver erable ble Forwar ard (DNDF NDF) Transa ansaction ction
Transac nsacti tion
ettl tlement ent
Roll ll over er and d early ly termi
mina nati tion for DNDF is proh
ibit ited ed However, unwind can be done by opening the reverse DNDF transactions
Cover He Hedging ng
Bank may conduct DNDF Transactions with Bank Overseas for cover hedging purpose.
Custom
er / / Foreign eign Party ty
Bank Overseas seas Bank
Hedging
Notes: Customer A conduct DNDF transactions with Bank B, and so Bank B can conduct DNDF transactions with overseas Bank for the purpose of cover hedge.
Cover Hedging
Source: Bank Indonesia
80
Amendmen ndment t on DNDF F Regulation ulation
*to provide de more flexib ibilit ity in DNDF F transact saction
*to increase rease liquidi idity ty and efficiency iciency in domesti estic c forei reign gn excha hange ge market
BI Regula lati tion n No. 20/10/ 0/PBI/20 2018
Source: Bank Indonesia
BI Regulati tion n No. 21/7/PBI BI/20 2019
AMENDMENT
Artic icle le 3
Artic icle le 3
underlying documents Artic icle le 6
Artic icle le 6
Artic icle le 11
supporting documents Artic icle le 11
threshold $ 5 mio can be:
Artic icle le 11
Artic icle le 11
form of cash flow projection, Bank must evaluate the appropriateness through:
*Effective on May 17th, 2019; English version of the regulation is available in BI website.
81
Overn rnig ight ht Index x Swaps ps (OIS) IS) & I Interest erest Rate e Swaps ps (IRS RS)
Source: Bank Indonesia
As hedg dging ing instr trume ments ts agains ainst t Rupiah ah inter erest est rate te chang anges es
IR IRS is a contract between two parties to periodically exchange rupiah interest rate flows during the contract period or at the completion
the contract based
OIS IS is an interest rate swap agreement based on a daily overnight reference rate (IndoNIA) Encourage price transparency in the rupiah money market Strengthen monetary policy transmission Provide alternative hedging instruments against rupiah interest rate changes Support securities market deepening in Indonesia
1 2 3 4
IndoNIA & JIBOR OIS transaction with IndoNIA as benchmark rate Alignment between JIBOR and OIS interest rate Improvement of IRS transaction liquidity
Strengthening reference rate based on real transactions
82
OIS and IRS Transa ansactions: ctions: General eral Provisi visions
Source: Bank Indonesia
Mar arket Pl Player
and non-bank institutions, and also foreign parties. Trans ransacti tion
Needs ds Analys nalysis
required to have an analysis on the need of rupiah interest rate derivative transactions. Mar arket Con
entions
transactions, the respective bank is bound by market conventions agreed upon by market players through industry association including the Indonesian Foreign Exchange Market Committee. Se Sett ttlem ement
payment and every transaction has to be settled in Rupiah. Close lose-out
ne nett tting ing can be applied under predetermined conditions.
Market Conventions
Calculat lation ion Base ACT/360 IndONIA ONIA Index x with 5 5 decimals mals Comp mpou
d Floatin ting Rates s (CFR) based d
mals ls Interest rest Payment based d on Net etting ing Not
al of Net et inter erest st paymen ent in IDR with 0 d decim imals als Set ettlem emen ent Date e = 1 busin ines ess s days s after Maturity ity Date (MD) OIS Quot
ion rates s based d on 2 d decim imals als Quot
tion : 1W, 2W, 1M, 2M, 3M, 4M, 5M, 6M At the 1st phase, e, OIS set ettle lement ment will l only ly be done at the end
(MD+1bd) bd).
83
3,00 4,00 5,00 6,00 7,00 8,00
Stable able Monetar tary y Envir ironmen
t Despit pite Chall lleng nges es
Rupia iah Exch change ge Rate te Remains ins Compa para rable le to Peers ers Well ll Maint intaine ined Infla lation tion Ensu sured red Price ice Stabi bility ity Stren engt gthened ed Moneta etary ry Poli licy cy Framew ework
Credit it Growt
ile
BI 7Day RR Rate: e: 4.50
(%)
LF Rate: e: 7.00 LF Rate: e: 5.25 25 BI Rate: e: 6.50 DF Rate: e: 3.75
19 Augu gust 2016
The New Moneta tary ry Opera ratio tion Framework Source: Bank Indonesia
YTD 20 2020 20 vs vs 201 019
8,38 38 8,36 36 3,35 35 3,02 02 3,61 61 3,13 13 2,72 72 2,68 68 2,98 98
0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 6,00 7,00 8,00 9,00
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jan-2020 Feb-2020 (%) CPI (%, yoy) - rhs Volatile Food (%, yoy) - lhs Administered (%, yoy) - lhs Core (%, yoy) - lhs 1,89 1,55 0,21 0,02
1,14
0,0 5,0 PHP IDR JPY THB MYR CNY SGD EUR KRW INR ZAR TRY BRL point-to-point average
%
*data as of March 18th, 2020 6,1 3,6 10,5 6,1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 %,yoy
Total Growth Working Capital Loans Investment Loans Consumption Loans
84
Regio gional nal Inflation ation Remai mains ns under r Contr ntrol
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), calculated
Inflation in most regions remain within the 2020 national inflation target range of 3.0% ± 1%. However, inflation in West Java (3.7%) and Lampung (3.8%) was still quite high which was contributed by rising commodity prices of garlics.
Aceh 3 North Sumatra 2 Riau 2,1 West Sumatra 2,3 Lampung 3,8 Riau Island 1,5 Bengkulu 2,6 Babel lsland 1,5 South Sumatra 3,1 Jambi 3,6 SUMATE TERA RA KALIMANTA NTAN Gorontalo 3 North Sulawesi 3,4 Central Sulawesi 2,8 West Sulawesi 2,8 South Sulawesi 2,8 South-East Sulawesi 1,1 SULAWESI Maluku 3 North Maluku2,7 Papua 2,1 West Papua 2,7
MA MALUKU-PA PAPUA
Banten 3 Jakarta 3 West Java 3,7 Central Java 3,5 East Java 2,5 Yogyakarta 3,1 Bali 3,5 NTB 1,8 NTT 2,3
BALI-NUSA TENGGARA RA
West Kalimantan 3,4 South Kalimantan 3,3 East Kalimantan 2,1 Central Kalimantan 2,4 North Kalimantan 0,2
Inf ≥ 4,5% 3,5% ≤ Inf < 4,5% 2,5% ≤ Inf < 3,5% Inf < 2,5% JA JAWA
NATI TIONA ONAL L INF NFLA LATI TION ON FEBRU RUARI RI:2,98% % (yoy)
2,45 2,47 2,70 3,2 2,87 2,55
85
4 Strat ategies gies to
hieve e the he Inflat ation ion Targe get
Achieving inflation at 3,5%±1%
2018-2019 Target
Stabilizing the price
e Affordabil dabilit ity Achieving inflation at 3,0%±1%
20 2020 20-20 2021 Targe get
Managing demand side Strengthening production, Government food reserves and food export- import management
ly Availabi lability lity
Strengthening institution Encouraging trade cooperation between regions
l Managed ged Distr trib ibution ion
Improving trade infrastructure Improving data quality
ectiv ive e Communic ication ation
Strengthening central-regional coordination
Source: Bank Indonesia
4 Strat ateg egies ies
86
Improving ving the Effecti ctiveness eness of Monetar etary y Policy icy Transmi ansmissi ssion
Bank nk Indon
esia ia has instit ituted uted a Reformulation
netary Policy icy Operations ions Framewo mework k which ich consists of 3 pill llars; ; (1) (1) impleme lement ntation
e; (2) (2) impleme lement ntation
erve e requir uiremen ement averaging ging; ; and (3) (3) continue inue to impl plemen ement money ey market ket deepening epening progr
Enhancement of monetary policy signal Enhancement of banking liquidity management Implem lemen entat tation ion of BI 7 Day Rever verse e Repo Rate Implem lemen entat tation ion of Reserve e Requiremen quirement t (RR) Aver veragin aging Reform rmula ulati tion
Moneta etary Po Polic icy Operat ational ional Framewor
Enhancement of instruments and transactions Implem lemen entat tation ion of Money Market et Deepen ening ing Program ram
Source: Bank Indonesia
87
Enhan ancemen cement t of Monetar tary y Operation ations s Frame mewor
minutes.
minutes.
CURR RRENT ENT JIBOR OR (as per June 1st, 2016) PREVIOU VIOUS JIBOR OR
Source: Bank Indonesia
88
Finan ancial cial Interm ermed ediation iation Managed ged to Mainta ntain in Its s Stable able Growth th
In early 2020, banking and multi-finance intermediation still experience moderate growth level, as well as the capital markets and insurance premium.
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK)
Financ ancing ing distrib ibut uted ed by multi-fina financ nce compani anies still ill regis ister growt wth h at 2.42% yoy as of Jan-20 20 Life fe insur uran ance gross premium ium revenue ue remain ains stab able le as of Jan-20, with h an increas ase in general al & reins nsur uranc ance premium iums Compar ared to December er 2019, as of 24 Februar uary 2020, capit ital al rais ising ing throug ugh h corporat ate issuanc uance has reached hed IDR 13.95 Tn Tn Bank nking ing intermedia iatio ion n can n still ll maint intain ain its moderat ate growth at 6.10% % in Jan-20 20
6,10% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 IDR Tn yoy Bank Loans YoY Growth (rhs) IPO ; 0,92 IPO ; 0,03 Rights Issue; 13 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 2016 2017 2018 Jan-20 until 24 Feb-20 IDR Tn IPO Rights Issue Corporate Bond & Sukuk 2,42% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 100 200 300 400 500 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 yoy IDR tn Financing Growth (rhs)
28,57
10 20 30 40 50 60 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Life Insurance Premium Growth General & Reinsurance Premium Growth
89
Stable able Financ ancial ial Instituti titutions ns
CAR of the bank nking ng sector remains ains high gh and stab able le at 22.83% % with h Tier 1 capit ital l at 21.20% % as of Jan-20. 20. RBC of the insur uranc nce indus ustry remains ains high gh and well l above e the minim nimum um thresh eshol
(120%) %) Gearing ing ratio io of mult lti-finan finance companies anies is stead adil ily maint intained ined at level l around und 3-tim imes Profit itab abili ility of the bank nking ng sector is stead adily ily maint intai aine ned at a stab able le level of around und 5%
Domes mestic ic fina nancia ncial l instit itutions utions exhib ibit it a relativ ively ely stable le cond ndition.
pital l is consis istentl ently well ll above e the minimum imum requi uiremen ements, , while ile prof
itabili ility y and lever erage ge remain in to be at a suf ufficient icient level. el.
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK) 22,83 21,20
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 CAR Tier 1
4,96 2,70
1 2 3 4 5 6 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Net Interest Margin Return on Assets
789 789 345 345
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Life Insurance (Lhs) General Insurance (rhs)
2,53
1 2 3 4 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20
90
Managea geable ble Cred edit it Risks sks with h Adequat ate e Liquid uidity ity
Banks anks are are eq equip ippe ped wit ith suf sufficient cient li liqui uid ass sset
nsurance in industr ustry also also demonstr emonstrates ates a su sufficient icient level el of
investme estment nt ad adeq equacy acy rati
edit risk isk is is al also so managed ged at at a low level as as non non-per performing
non-per performing
nanci ncing ng remains ins below low the thres eshold
The ratio io of liquid uid assets to deposit it and non-core deposit its of the bank nking ing sector are maint intained ained well above the thresh eshold ld As of Jan-20, the gross & net NPL ratio ios of the bank nking ng sector are 2.77% & 1.04% according ingly and well l maint intain ained below w the thresh eshold ld NPF ratio io of the mult lti-fi financ nance indus ustry constant ntly ly remains ains low at 2.56% % as of Jan-20 20 Invest estment nt adequac uacy ratio io in the insur uran ance indus ustry is maint intai aine ned above 100%
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK) 101,49 21,47
5 10 15 20 25 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-… Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-… Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20
% %
Liquid Assets to Non-Core Deposits Liquid Assets to Deposits threshold LA to Deposit (rhs) = 10% threshold LA/ NCD= 50%
1,04 2,77
1 2 3 4 5 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20
%
NPL Net NPL Gross
116,14 185,44
50 100 150 200 250 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Life Insurance General Insurance
2,56
1 2 3 4 5 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20
% %
91
Managea geable ble Mark rket t Risks sks
Amid midst st the he incr increas easing ing mark arket et volat
ilit ity, y, the he risk isk pr prof
ile of
inancial insti institut utions ions rem emains ins mana managea eable
et open
position ion of
he bank anking ing se sect ctor
was maintained ntained at at a low level, l, while le the inves estmen ment value ue of
mestic ic instit itutiona utional inves estors
ll relativ ively ely stable le.
Net et open en pos posit ition ion in in the he bank ankin ing sect ector is is maint intained ined sign gnifi ificant antly ly far far bel elow
he maxim imum um limit it (20 20%) Insur uranc ance & pensio ion fund nd invest estment nt value ue is is growin wing stead adily ly. The exposur ures es of mult lti-fi financ nance companies anies to foreign ign debt have e large gely ly been mitiga igated ed by compan any hedgi ging ng meas asur ures es Mutual ual funds’ ne net as asset valu alue (NAV) is is manage naged to to be be mai aint ntaine ained wi with lo low to to moderat ate volatili ility
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK) 2,21
1 2 3 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 % 1166,5 282 282 200 250 300 350 400 300 600 900 1.200 1.500 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 IDR Tn IDR Tn Insurance Pension Funds (rhs) 4.000 4.500 5.000 5.500 6.000 6.500 7.000 260 310 360 410 460 510 560 610 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 IDR Tn NAV Mutual Funds JCI (rhs)
As of 6 March, 2020 170,94 97,86
25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Domestic Debt Foreign Debt
92
Domest estic ic Capital ital Mark rket t Perfor
manc nce e Amid d Global al Challenges llenges
Source: Bloomberg and Ministry of Finance
In dom
estic tic capita pital l markets, rkets, bond and stock
es are e contra tracti cting g as s the e resu sult lt of plungi ging oil prices ces and heigh eighten tened ed COVID VID-19 fears rs
Altho houg ugh lessen en in March h compar ared ed to Februar uary, foreign ign portfoli lio is experienci encing ng net
flow w due to the global al financ nancial ial challe alleng nges es In line e with h global al Indic ices, es, JCI is also under pressur ure of COVID-19 econom
ic effect. Indones nesian ian Governm nment nt and Regula ulator have taken n certain ain actio ions ns to minim nimiz ize e the effect.
The government’s bond yields are showing an increase, following rupiah’s deprec recia iation tion
Stock
ex Perf rfor
red to 31 Decem embe ber r 2019)
TURK BRAZ US EU JPN MAL CHIN PHIL SIN HKN INDO S KOREA THAI WORLD
10 20 30 40 50 60 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Gov't Debt Securities Equity
281 281 5.221
3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Comp Bond Index Comp Stock Index (rhs)
As of 9 March, 2020 As of 10 March, 2020
12500 13000 13500 14000 14500 15000 15500 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Yield (%) 5-yr Yield 10-yr Yield 20-yr Yield IDR (rhs)
As of 10 March, 2020
93
Strat rategic egic Polic licies ies in Finan ancial cial Sector
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK)
Providing financing alternatives for Goverment Priority Sectors Supporting acceleration of national economic growth Providing financial access to MSMEs especially in remote areas Preparing financial services industry to cope with Industrial Revolution 4.0 Improvement of business process in the industry
94
Continuou tinuous s Progr gram am on Capital ital Mark rket t Deepen ening ing
…continuously strengthened, including through capital market deepening ini niti tiativ atives es
Stren engthen thening ing market t infras astr tructure
Enhanci ancing the supply-side side
fund, asset-backed securities, REITs, infrastructure fund, IGBF (Indonesia Government Bonds Future) & equity crowdfunding.
government, IDX incubators, SMEs, SOEs & big tax payers.
Enhanci ancing the deman mand-side side Stren engthen thening ing governance ance & c cust stom
er protec ectio ion
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK)
(insurers & pension funds) in capital markets .
investor education programs).
95
Enhan ancing cing Financi ncial al Literac eracy y & Inclusion usion
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK)
OJ OJK striv strives s to
build a a str strong foun
dation for
inancial l incl inclusi sion prog
, to
ensu sure ac access to
inancial products ts & & ser ervices by In Indo donesians of
all soc
l cla
Such in initia itiati tives als also in include th the e en enha hancement t of
inan ancial lit liter eracy an and d finan inancial cons
tion. Developing financial education models utilizing various delivery channels Enhancing the role of the “Investment Alert Taskforce” The result of OJK’s 2019 national survey demonstrated an improvement in financial literacy & inclusion among Indo donesian ans com
ed to that t of 2016.
Fina inanc ncial Lit iter eracy cy Fina inanc ncial Inclu clusio ion
21.8%
2013
Developing micro-credit products with additional business support (“KUR Klaster”) Promoting the establishment
microfinance institutions (“Bank Wakaf Mikro”) Strengthening the role of Financial Access Acceleration Taskforce (TPAKD) in local areas 29.7%
2016
38.03 .03%
2019
2019 Targ rget: 35%
59 59.7%
2013
67 67.8%
2016
76.19%
2019
2019 Targ rget: 75%
96
A A Comprehen prehensiv sive e Financ ncia ial l Deepe pening ning Program
…strat
trategy gy to tackle challenges in deepening Indonesia’s financial markets
Source: Bank Indonesia
In Apr-2016 2016, the Minis nister er of Fina nance nce, , the Gover erno nor of Bank nk Indon
esia, ia, and the Chair irma man n of the Board of Commi missione ioners of the Financi ncial l Service ices Authorit
launc nched ed a Coordina ination ion Forum um for Developme elopment nt Financin ncing throug ugh Financia ncial Market ket (FK-PPPK). K). The e three ee authorit
ies have e agreed eed to formula mulate e “The Natio ional l Strategy egy of Fina nancia ncial l Market ket Development elopment”
Vision: To Establish Deep, Liquid, Efficient, Inclusive, and Safe Financial Market
ECONOMIC FUNDING & RISK MANAGEMENT MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT POLICY COORDINATION, HARMONIZATION & EDUCATION Benchmark Rate & Standardization Instrument Fund Regulatory Framework Market Infrastructure Intermediaries Coordination & Education
Mission: Financial Market as Sources of National Development Financing
1 2 3
Money Market FX Market Bond Market Stock Market Syariah Market Structure Product Market
3 Pilars 6 Markets 7 Elements
Market Ecosystem
TARGET KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATOR STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN
97
BI’s Roles in Supporting Distribution of Non-Cash Cash Soc
ial Assistance stance (NCS CSA) A)
BI suppor
ts gover ernme ment’s progra
m of shiftin ing socia ial l assista istanc nce to targeted ed non cash sh soc
ial assistan istance disbu sburse seme ment t throu
h the elec ectr tronic ic paymen ent system
re, elec ectr tronic ic mechan hanism ism disbu bursem rsement t will l be also
ied d to LPG subsidy sidy. . NCSA A Programs ams
Family ily Hope Program ram (Program gram Keluarga uarga Harapan an -PKH KH) Smart Indone
ia Program ram (Program gram Indon
esia ia Pintar tar-PIP PIP) Non Cash Food d Assistan tance e (Bantuan tuan Pangan gan Non Tunai ai – BPNT)
2016-20 2020 20
Pilot Proj
ect Gradu adual al Impl mpleme ementatio tation
Inter erconne
ed & inter eroperable
paymen ent t syst stem em
LPG Subsidy idy
Full Imp mpleme lementati tation
XXYYZZ 1234567 678
9876543210
Source: Bank Indonesia
98
Prog
ress of
A Prog
ms
Family ly Hope e Program
(Program ram Kelu luarga rga Harap rapan an - PKH) Non
istance (Ban antuan Pangan gan Non
BPNT)
provides cash to very poor households. Rp 1,89 million /year will be granted for each
May, August, and November.
to 6,0 million households on non-cash basis.
households on non-cash basis.
program that is managed by the central
to low-income households. Rp 110 thousand/month will be granted for each household as BPNT that can be used in certain stores which called e-warong.
1,2 million households in 44 cities.
households (65.1% of the target of 15.5 million households target).
Source: Bank Indonesia
million households
non-cash basis with realization of 82.52% of the 2019 budget.
Sept-2019, BPNT has been distributed to 13.0 million households with realization of 68.04% of the 2019 budget.
99
18-Mar-20 2008 1998
Strong
er Fundamentals amentals Facing ng the Headwi dwind nds
82,4 12,1 6,8 1998 2008 Sep-15 30 30 3.8 2,8 1998 2008 Aug-15 17,4 50,2 1998 2008 Sep-15
Inflation tion Rate te (%) IDR R Movem emen ent t (%) Non Non-Perf Perform
ing g Loa
PL (% (%) Government ent Debt/G t/GDP Forei eign gn Reserv rves (USD D bn)
100.0% 1998 98 27.4% 2008 08 29.8% Q4 - 201 2019 8.6x 1998 98 3.1x 2008 08 3.1x Q4 - 201 2019 116.8% 1998 98 33.2% 2008 08 36.1% Q4 - 2019
More e Liquid quid Market rket (%) Extern ernal l Debt bt (Publ blic ic & Priva ivate) te) to FX Reserv erve e Ratio tio Extern ernal l Debt bt/G /GDP
Inflat ation contro trolled d withi thin the target t range IDR depreciate ted d year-to to-date date in March h 2020 NPL NPL level (gross) is below w the maximum um thresho hold of 5% Consiste tentl tly y well-mai ainta tained Significan antl tly y highe her than n 1998 & 2008, ample to cover 7.5 months ths of import t and exte ternal al debt t repaym yment Significan antl tly y lower than n 1998 crisis Slightl tly higher than n 2008, but significan antl tly y lower than 1998 Mar ’20 130.4
Feb ’20
2.98 98 (yoy)
Jan ‘20 62 62 10,5 5,7 1998 2008 Jul-15
Overnight ht interbank k money y market t rate is relati tively y lower
Tw IV ‘19
4.8 (ytd)
100
Outlook look of Domest mestic ic Econom
y Remai mains ns Robust st
...d ...dome mestic stic economic mic growth th is predi dict cted ed to be moderat ated d in 2019 9 and rebound und in 2020
2019 and 2020 Economic
Bank Indonesia projects economic growth in 2020 at 4.2-4.6%, revised down from 5.0-5.4%,. Bank Indonesia projects inflation in 2020 within the target range, namely 3.0%±1%. Bank Indonesia projects growth of outstanding loans disbursed by the banking industry in 2020 in the 6-8% range, revised down from
9-11% previously, in line with the revised economic growth projection in 2020. Econom
ic Grow rowth Inflat lation ion CAD D (% (% of
DP) Cred redit it Growt
Source : Bank Indonesia
2018 Real aliza izatio ion 5.17% 3.13% 2.98% 11.75 .75% 201 2019 9 Real aliza izatio ion 5.02% 2.72% 2.72% 6.08% 20 2020 20 4.2–4.6 % 3. 3.0±1% 2.5-3.0 .0 % 6.0-8.0 .0%
Pr Progres gressiv sive e Inf nfras astruc tructure ture Devel elopmen pment: Strong
mmitme tment t on Accel celer eration ation of Infrastructure structure Provi vision ion
102
IIGF has the potential to provide project guarantee for non-PPP projects
The Governmen rnment t has Enact cted ed Various ious Reform rms s to Accelerat erate e Inf nfrastructur rastructure e Provis ision ion
Fiscal l Refor
ms Instit itutio ional al Refor
Regulat lator
ms
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
Viabil ilit ity Gap p Fund nding ing (VGF) F) KPPIP IP Direct ect Lend nding ing Increase project financial feasibility by contributing up to 49% of the construction cost (MoF Reg. No. 223/2012) Avail ilab abil ilit ity y Payment ent Land nd Revolv
ing Fund nd Issuance of regulatory framework to allow annuity payment by the Government during concession period to concessionaire since project operation based on infrastructure service availability (MoF
A revolving-fund sourced from State Budget, to accelerate land acquisition (MoF Reg. No. 220/2010) KPPIP is actively involved in accelerating delivery
na Mult lti Infrastruk uktur ur Merging between PT. SMI and Gov’t Investment Center (PIP) to become an infrastructure funding company Indon
esia ia Infras. . Guarantee ntee Fund nd (IIG IGF) F) PPP Unit it Provide facilities to help GCA on preparing PPP project (PDF/TA) BLU LU LMAN The State Asset Management Agency (BLU LMAN) is mandated to provide land fund for National Strategic Projects to ensure timely land acquisition process Allow guarantee for direct lending to SOE to accelerate financial close process for infrastructure projects (Presidential Reg. No. 82/2015) Land nd Acquis uisit itio ion Stipulate land acquisition acceleration based on Law No. 2/2012 (Presidential Reg. No. 148/2015) and land acquisition fee payment for impacted community (Presidential Reg. No.56/2017) Econo nomy my Packa kages ges Conduct deregulation for issues hindering infrastructure delivery and develop a task force under CMEA to ensure the effectiveness of economic packages implementation Risk-sha haring ing Guid ideli elines nes IIGF has issued risk allocation and mitigation guidelines for PPP project Tax x Incent entiv ives es (Tax ax Holid iday ay) MoF Reg. No.35/2018 allowed 100% Tax Holiday for 17 Pioneering Industries for 5 – 20 years depending on the investment value Indon
esia ia Infrastructur ucture e Guarantee ntee Fund nd (IIGF) F) IIGF has the potential to provide project guarantee for non-PPP projects
103
Some me of Most t Recen ent t Reforms
Policy y reforms rms are aiming ming to create a more conduci ducive e invest stment ent climat mate e for infrast frastructure ructure deliver ery
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
Presid ident entia ial l Reg. No. 20/2 /2018 on Use of Foreig eign Labor
This regulation aims at t simp mplif ifying ng the e perm rmit it appl plic icati tion
cess ss for foreig eign n workers kers, hence making the process more efficient and faster, in order to rise foreign direct investment in Indonesia
Presid ident entia ial l Reg. No. 56/2 /2017 on Socia ial l Imp mpact t Handling ling in Land Acquis uisit itio ion n Proces ess for PSN – released on June 2017
This Presidential Reg. allows the Execu cuting ting Agency cy to pay land d acqu cquisi isition tion compe pensation tion to the impac pacted ted community ity who does not have officia icial l righ ghts ts
r the land d required ired for PSN. . This regulation helps to solve the land acquisition problem due to community objection over the land use.
MoF MoF No. 60/20 2017 on Proced edures res for the Provis isio ion of Central ral Govern rnmen ent t Guaran rantee ee for the Ac Accele elerat ration ion of the Nation ional al Strateg egic ic Projec ects ts Imp mplem lement entati tion
The supporting regulation for Presidential Reg. No. 3/2016 on the Acceleration of the National Strategic Projects Implementation. This is regula gulation tion regulates tes the scope pe and d genera ral l requirem irements ts and d proce cedu dure res to propo pose and d gra rant t guara rante tees, , as well l as all llocate cate state te budget dgetob
liga gatio tion on govern rnment t guara rantee tees to all ll PSN. . The guarantee provision is expected to increase the feasibility and trust of investors to participate in the implementation of PSN.
Gover ernment nment Reg. . No. 13/2 /2017 on Natio iona nal l Spatia ial l Plan n (RT RTRW RWN) – released on April 2017
The issuance of RTRWN can resolve spatial planning mismatch in the implementation of infrastructure projects listed in the annex of Government Reg.
ister of Agra raria rian and Spatia tial can issu sue e a recom commen endation tion of spa patia tial l util iliz ization tion; ; so that t the proce cess of obta tain inin ing g projec ject t perm rmiss issio ion can be done.
MoF MoF No. 21/2017 on Procedur edures es for Land d Acquis uisit ition ion for National ional Strategic egic Projec ects and Asset t Managem agemen ent t of Land d Acquis uisit ition ion by State e Asset t Management gement Agenc ncy – released on February 2017
The implementing regulation of Presidential Reg. No. 102/2016 on Financing of Land Acquisition for the Development of Public Interest in the Framework of the National Strategic Implementation. This regulation becomes the legal basis for the financing of the procurement of National Strategic and Priority Projects by BLU LMAN.
104
Reforms Along the Project’s Life Cycle
...to
urage and accelerat rate infrastructur nfrastructure project ect usi sing ng PPP sche heme me Government nment of Indonesi nesia
Proj
ect Develop lopment t Facili ility ty (PDF) Viabi ability lity Fundin ing Gap (VGF) Guarantee e Fund Tax x Facili ilitie ies Avail ailab abili ility Paymen ment Land d Ac Acquisition ition Preparation Bidding Process Construction
Project development facility contributing to assist GCA on PPP project preparation (PDF&TA) Managing entity: KPPIP, PT SMI PT IIF, and Ministry of Finance A facility with contribution to construction cost to increase project financial viability Managing Entitiy: Ministry of Finance based
Gov’t. commitment: 49% max. Per project cost
Guaranteeing
infrastructure concession agreements and Mof Regulation No 130/PMK. 08/2016 re: Govt guarantee for electricity project acceleration Managing entity: IIGF and MoF Govt’s comitment: US$ 450 mn
MoF Reg. No. 159/PMK. 010/2015 re: tax holiday for pioneer sector, such as base metal, oil refinery, basic petrochemical, machinery, renewable energy, & telco equipment industries. Sector will be further expanded Managing entitiy: Ministry of Finance A scheme in which concessionaires receive sum of money periodically from central or regional government after the completion
MoF Regulation, and MoHA Regulation on Availability Payment has been ratified. Managing entity: Ministry of Finance & Ministry of Home Affairs A facility to support land acquisition for infrastructure projects particularly projects that involve private sector Managing enitiy: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Agrarian and Land Spatial/BPN and BLU-LMAN Gov’t. commitment: US$ 12 mn (2016) Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
105
Effor
ts to Accelerat erate e Infrastru astructure cture Provisi vision
Regulat ation ion imp mprovem emen ent to to accele elerat ate land procurem emen ent proces ess
acquisition duration for the Government Contracting Agencies and the Investors. The Law sets an estimated 583 days maximum time to complete the land acquisition process.
has been revised into the Presidential Regulation No. 30 of 2015. The Amendment to the Regulation allows a Business Entity to allocate funding for a land acquisition which can be reimbursed by the Government following the completion of land acquisition process. With this Regulation, the land acquisition process is expected not to be delayed by the unallocated budget or the delay on the budget disbursement.
Land nd Procurem
t Process as Stipul ulate ated d in Law No. 2 of 2012
Law No
012 was succe ccessfully ully applied lied in in: 1.
lembang ng – Ind Indralaya laya section ection of
ns Sumater era Toll Road Project ject 2.
uble le Track ck Rail Projec ject
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
106
Effor
ts to Accelerat erate e Infrastru astructure cture Provisi vision
…the establishment of Indone
sia Asset et Management ent Agency (LMAN)
Source: Ministry of Finance
Government nment has establish shed ed Stat ate Asset set Management nt Unit t (LMAN) as a s soluti ution n to accelera rate e the land acqu quisiti tion n through ugh the provisi vision n of land d acqu quisiti tion n fund
1. Unutilized fund can be allocated for the following year 2. Non-project-specific land acquisition fund allocation. Unused allocated fund can flexibly be made available for the
3. Land acquisition fund for PSN projects is managed under one agency
through the issuance of MoF Reg. 219/2015 concerning State Assets Management
land acquisition fund as a support to Ministry
shortage of fund to acquire land for priority toll roads
National Strategic Projects through the issuance of MoF Reg. 21/2017 concerning land acquisition financing guideline for PSN
US$ 881.48 Million (IDR 11.9 Trillion) through bridging finance scheme for 27 toll road projects, and planned to start the implementation of direct payment scheme
Land Ac Acqui quisitio tion n Budgeting ting Scheme LMAN at a Glance This LMAN initiativ nitiative provi vides des bet etter r flexibil xibility ty, coordi dina nati tion n and management ent of land acqu quisit sition
nd provisi vision n for National
rategic gic Projects cts (PSN)
107
New ew Fundame ament ntal al Regulations ulations Have Been een Initiat tiated ed in 2017
to accelerat rate infrastru frastructu ture re projects cts deliver ery
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
Gover ernm nmen ent Reg. . No. 13/2017 on National ional Spatial ial Plan n (RT RTRWN RWN) The issuance of RTRWN can resolve spatial planning mismatch in the implementation of infrastructure projects listed in the annex of Government Reg. No. 13/2017. A number of breakthroughs were developed, and one of them is that the Minister of Agrarian and Spatial can issue a recommendation of spatial utilization; so that the process of
permission can be done.
MoF MoF No. 60/2017 on Proced edure ures for the Provisio ision n of Central ral Governm rnmen ent t Guarant rantee ee for the Ac Accele elera ration tion of the Nation ional al Strateg egic Projects ects Implem emen enta tation tion The supporting regulation for Presidential Reg. No. 3/2016 on the Acceleration of the National Strategic Projects
grant guarantees, as well as allocate state budget obligation on government guarantees to all PSN. The guarantee provision is expected to increase the feasibility and trust of investors to participate in the implementation of PSN.
Presid iden enti tial al Reg. No. 56/2017 on Social ial Impact t Handling ling in Land d Acquis uisit ition ion Proces ess for PSN PSN This Presidential Reg. allows the Executing Agency to pay land acquisition compensation to the impacted community who does not have official rights over the land required for PSN. This regulation helps to solve the land acquisition problem due to community objection over the land use.
MoF MoF No. 21/2017 on Procedur edures es for Land d Acquis uisit ition ion for National ional Strategic egic Projec ects and Asset Managem gemen ent t of Land d Acquisit isition ion by State e Asset t Managem gemen ent Agen ency The implementing regulation of Presidential Reg. No.102/2016 on Financing of Land Acquisition for the Development of Public Interest in the Framework of the National Strategic Implementation. This regulation becomes the legal basis for the financing of the procurement of National Strategic and Priority Projects by BLU LMAN
108
Und Under er Preside esident ntial ial Reg. . No.56/2 6/2018 18, , PSN N list st has been revised ised int nto
cts and nd 3 P Progr grams ams
projects
27
Projects53 53
Projects17
Projects12 12
ProjectsSulawe awesi
US$23.4 B
Kalim limant ntan
US$35 35.7 B
Sumat atra
US$43.6 B
Maluk luku & Papua ua
US$34. 34.5 B
89 89 3
Programs
ProjectsNational ional
Projects
1 2
Projects
Java
US$72.7 B US$100 100.7 7 B
13 13
Bali & Nusa sa Tengga ggara ra US$0. 0.7 7 B
Exchange rate: US$ 1 = IDR 13,500
Road 69 Projects Dams 51 Projects SEZs & IEs 29 Projects Railway 16 Projects Energy 11 Projects Ports 10 Projects Clean Water & Sanitation 8 Projects Airports 7 Projects Irigation 6 Projects Smelter 6 Projects Electricity 1 Program Technology 4 Projects Housing 3 Projects Fisheries/Farming 1 Projects Sea Dike 1 Projects Education 1 Projects Economic Equality 1 Program Aeroplane Industry 1 Program
Projec ect Program ram
PSN incl clud udes s 15 sector
s at project ct level and 3 sector
gram m level
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
Projects109
PSN may y rece ceiv ive e privil vileges eges as s stipulat ipulated ed in the e Presidential sidential Reg.
. 3/20 2016 j.o j.o. . the e Pr Presid sidential ential Reg.
/2017
01 01 02 03
Determination of National Strategic Projects
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 10 11 12
Permit & Non-permit Completion Spatial Planning Land clearing acceleration Local Content Utilization Government Guarantee Provision Projects Monitoring via KPPIP IT System SOE’s Assignment Problems and Hindrance Completion Accelerate Goods and Service Procurement Settlement of Legal Issues Acceleration of Non- State Budget Projects
Additional Facilities Existing Facilities Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
110
Progr gress ess on 223 Projects jects and 3 P Program
s PSN
The e Estimated ated Invest estment t Value lue for 223 3 Proj rojec ects s + 3 Program
s PSN1
1Exclude 7 projects which investment value are still unknownExchange rate : US$ 1 = IDR 13,500
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
State Budget 10% SOEs/ RSOEs 31% Private 59% Total tal Inves estment t Value lue2
US$ 307.4 Billion llion
State Budget US$ 31.6 .6 Bn Bn SOEs/RSOEs US$ 96.6 .6 Bn Bn Private US$ 179.2 .2 Bn Bn
5 Sectors rs with th Highe hest st Invest stment ent Value
Energy gy 11 Projects US$ 89.8 Bn Electr tric icit ity 1 Program US$ 76.7 Bn Roads 69 Projects US$ 49.7 Bn Railw lways 16 Projects US$ 29.2 Bn SEZs and IEs 31 Projects US$ 31 Bn
111
Progr gress ess on 223 Projects jects and 3 P Program
s PSN
Progress ess of Natio ional al Strategic ategic Proj
ects s (as of Decemb mber er 2018)
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
32 projects already completed 32 projects, 1 electricity program, and 1 economic equality program in construction and partial-operation phase 48 projects in construction and will start operating in 2019 52 projects in construction and will start operating after 2019 14% 14% 15% 15% 21% 21% 23% 23% 3% 3% 24% 24% 6 projects in transaction 53 projects and 1 Aircraft Industry Program in preparation phase
Progress ess of Natio ional al Strategic ategic Proj
ects s (as of Septem tembe ber 2019)
51 projects already completed 27 projects, 1 electricity program, and 1 economic equality program in construction and partial-operation phase 22 projects in construction and will start operating in 2019 80 projects in construction and will start operating after 2019 4 projects in transaction 39 projects and 1 Aircraft Industry Program in preparation phase
22% 13% 12% 33% 3% 18%
112
In 2016 6 - 2018 18, , 62 PSNs have e been een Comple
d wi with th Total al Estimat imated Investme estment nt Value ue of
23.7 Billio llion
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
113
Progr gress ess on 37 P Prior iorit ity y Projects jects
From
vise sed d Natio ional al Strat ategic egic Proje jects, ts, the Government nment has select lected ed a list t of 37 Prior
ity Proje jects s to be the focus s of
infrastructure astructure provisio sion.
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
1. Balikpapan-Samarinda Toll Road 2. Manado-Bitung Toll Road 3. Panimbang-Serang Toll Road 4. 15 Segments of Trans – Sumatera Toll Road 5. Probolinggo – Banyuwangi Toll Road 6. Yogyakarta – Bawean Toll Road 7. SHIA Express Railway 8. MRT Jakarta South-North Line 9. Makassar-Parepare Railway 10. Light Rail Transit (LRT) of Jakarta-Depok- Bogor-Bekasi 11. LRT of South Sumatera 12. East Kalimantan Railway 13. LRT of DKI Jakarta 14. Kuala Tanjung International Hub Seaport 15. Bitung International Hub Seaport 16. Patimban Port 17. Inland Waterways Cikarang-Bekasi-Laut (CBL) 18. Palapa Ring Broadband 19. Batang, Central Java Power Plant (CJPP) 20. Central – West Java Transmission Line 500 kV 21. Indramayu Coal-fired Power Plant 22. Sumatera 500 kV Transmission (4 Provinces) 23. Mulut Tambang Coal-fired Power Plant (6 Provinces) 24. PLTGU (16 Provinces) 25. Bontang Oil Refinery 26. Tuban Oil Refinery 27. RDMP/Revitalization of the Existing Refineries (Balikpapan, Cilacap, Balongan, Dumai, Plaju) 28. Abadi WK Masela Field 29. Unilization Field Has Jambaran-Tiung Biru 30. Indonesian Deepwater Development (IDD) 31. Tangguh LNG Train 3 Development 32. West Semarang Drinking Water Supply System 33. Jakarta Sewerage System 34. National Capital Integrated Coastal Development (NCICD) Phase A 35. Jatiluhur Drinking Water Supply 36. Lampung Drinking Water Supply 37. Waste to Energy Program in 8 cities
114
Progr gress ess on 37 Prior iorit ity y Projects jects
Recent ent Milestones ilestones Progr gres ess of 37 Priorit
y Project jects (as of September ember, , 2019) Fund nding ing Scheme eme of 37 Priorit
jects
Loan Agreement has been signed on 15 November 2017. On March 2018, pre-qualification stage has resulted 4 shortlisted bidders Allocation of repayment liability on additional-loan for Phase I and Phase II has been decided in the KPPIP Ministerial meeting – 49% will be borne by Central Government and 51% will be borne Provincial Government of DKI Jakarta.
Patimba ban Port
West Semarang rang Water Supply ly System em:
Mass Rapid d Tran ansit sit (MRT RT) Jaka karta ta South-Nor North
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
66% 66% 26% 26% 8% 8%
US$120.7 billion from Private/ PPP US$47.7 billion from SOE/ Regional SOE US$15.5 billion State/ Regional Budget (including G-to-G loan)
Exchange rate : US$ 1 = IDR 13,500
Total Investment Value US$ 183.9 Billion
West package has been fully operasional since April 2018.
Pa Palapa a Ring
Note: This data is still going to be verified by The Executive Office of President (KSP) and Indonesia’s National Government Internal Auditor (BPKP)
Outline Business Case has been done on December 2017.
Yogyakar akarta ta-Ba Bawen en Toll Road
6% 6% 16% 16% 30% 30% 24% 24% 8% 8% 16% 16% 3 projects in transaction 6 projects in preparation 6 projects in construction and partial operation phase 2 project is completed 11 projects in construction and will start operating in 2019 9 projects in construction and will start operating after 2019
115
Energy ergy Sector
: the Progres gress s of 35.000 MW Progr gram am
No No Phase MW MW % 1 Operating 3,792 11 2 Construction 22,739 62 3 Signed Power-purchase Agreement 6,923 21 4 Procurement 1,279 4 5 Planning 734 2
17 Dec ‘14
Cabine inet Meeting ing “There’s electricity crisis in Indonesia, requires construction of large capacity plant "
Jan ‘15
Average econom
ic growth of 6.7% % requir ires 7,000 MW / year or 35,000 MW / 5 years (Kepmen ESDM No. 0074/2015 on RUPTL 2015-2024)
Jan ‘15
Debottle leneck neckin ing g through
latio ion: n:
No.1/2015 concerning electricity supply cooperation & joint utilization
the electrical network among license holders.
Purchasing Electrical Power and benchmark prices for Electrical Power through the Direct Selection & Appointment.
16 Mar ‘15 4 May ‘15 June‘17
Cabine inet Meeting ing Progress of 35,000 MW Launc unching hing 35.00 000 0 MW by the President in Goa Beach Sanden DIY The progress so far:
Sulawesi PLN: 2,000 MW Private: 1,470 MW Transmission: 5,275 ckt.km Substation: 4,390 MVA Maluku ku PLN: 260 MW Private: 12 MW Transmission: 653 ckt.km Substation: 620 MVA Papu pua PLN : 220 MW Private: 0 MW Transmission: 364 ckt.km Substation: 460 MVA Kalimantan PLN: 900 MW Private: 1,735 MW Transmission: 5,604 ckt.km Substation: 3,500 MVA Nusa Tenggara PLN: 670 MW Private: 0 MW Transmission: 2,347 ckt.km Substation: 1,410 MVA Sumate tera PLN: 1,100 MW Private: 8,990 MW Transmission: 18,729 ckt.km Substation: 35,521 MVA Jawa wa & Bali PLN: 5,000 MW Private: 13,697 MW Transmission: 9,185 ckt.km Substation: 66,265 MVA
35,00 000 0 MW Progr
m Dist istrib ibution ution
Source: PLN
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
Note : Progress of 35,000 MW Electricity Program as of August 2019
116
Energy ergy Sector
: the Progres gress s of 35.000 MW Progr gram am
Decemb mber er 2016
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
706 MW in operating phase 10,141 MW in construction phase 8,478 MW sighned Power-purchase Agreement 10,560 MW in procurement phase
2% 2% 28% 28% 24% 24% 30% 30% 16% 16%
5,824 MW in planning phase
3% 3% 44% 44% 38% 38% 9% 9% 6% 6% 8% 8% 52% 52% 32% 32% 5% 5% 3% 3% 14% 14% 62% 62% 20% 20% 2% 2% 2% 2%
998 MW in operating phase 15,676 MW in construction phase 13,782 MW sighned Power-purchase Agreement 3,163 MW in procurement phase 2,228 MW in planning phase 2,899 MW in operating phase 18,207 MW in construction phase 11,467 MW sighned Power-purchase Agreement 1,683 MW in procurement phase 954 MW in planning phase 5,071 MW in operating phase 21,824.8 MW in construction phase 6,877.6 MW sighned Power-purchase Agreement 829 MW in procurement phase 734 MW in planning phase
Nove vemb mber er 2017 Decemb mber er 2018 Nove vemb mber er 2019
117
Acceleratio eration n of 35.000 MW Progr gram am
Governme ment PT PLN
EPC Power werpl plant nt and Trans nsmis missio ion PLN Subsid idia iary (Joint int Ventur ure) e) Independ ependent ent Power wer Produc ucer er
Streng ngthe then n Equity uity 2B 2B 1
Gover ernme nment nt Suppor port (outsid ide e Guarantee) ntee)
Loca cal l Content ent Obligation on the usage of local content through an open book system, price guideline, reverse engineering or other methods to maximise the local content.
2A 2A
Assign ignmen ent SJKU KU* * Minis nistry y
nce
Strengthe gthen PLN‘s Balance e Sheet et
*)SJKU=Surat Jaminan Kelayakan Usaha/ Business Viability Guarantee Letter The Gover ernme nment nt has issued ued Presid idential ential Regul ulation ion No. 4/201 016 6 on Electr ectricit icity y Infrastructur ucture e Accel eler eratio ion n to accel eler erate e power er projec ects
Provis ision ion of Elect ectric icit ity Refina inancin ncing Hedging ging Financ ncial ial Asset et Optimiza imization ion Direct Lending Direct Lending Bond issuance by PT PLN Company Tax Holiday PT PLN’s divident allocation Loan from independent lenders Asset Revaluation Other types of funding Equity Injection by the Government
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
118
Sign gnif ific icant ant Progress
rastructure cture Proje
cts
Datab abas ase Project information such as map, track, existing study and latest project status. An integrat grated ed IT system with monitoring capacity for stakeholders, so that they can have real l time data. Platf tform rm data outlook that is efficient and functional using a user- friendly framework. Record decisions related to projects and synchr hroniz nize e the implementation schedule that can be utilized by stakeholders.
KPPIP developed an integrated IT System for monitoring of national strategic and priority projects, providing database on projects’ latest status which can be effectively utilized for monitoring and decision- making purposes. Improvi
ng Monitor nitoring ing System em on Infrastructur ucture e Projects jects1 Roads
Trans-Sumatr tra Toll Road Merah Puti tih Bridge, Ambon
Dams
Jati tigede Dam (Operati ational)
Transporta portation tion
Jakar karta ta MRT Project ct2
Drinking inking Water ter Proce
ssing ing
Umbulan Drinking Wate ter Provision System, East t Java va
1 Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP) 2 Not funded from National Budget
Terminal 3 Ultimate Soekarno-Hatta ta2 New Tanjung Priok k Port t Project ct2 Nop Goliat t Dekai, kai, Papu pua
119
Infrast rastructure cture Projects jects and Financ ancing ing Schemes mes
Promoti
n of Infra frast structure ructure Developme pment nt to Ac Accelerat ate Economi mic Growth th
Establis ishment ent of PPP PPP Unit it
Broa
Objecti tive Champion project preparation and acceleration of the PPP agenda in Indonesia Core e Mandates tes Improve quality of project selection under KPPIP – OBC criteria Support project preparation through PDF support and highlyqualified transaction advisors Act on behalf the Minister of Finance in providing government support and approvals for projects Additiona ional Mandates es Coordinate all public financeinstruments Provide input for PPP Policy program Development and Regulations Implement capacity building forGovt. Contracting Agency(GCAs) One stop shop for PPP promotion & Information
Bud udget get Publi lic Private Partner nership ip SOE & Private Sector
Cen entr tral & regio gional budge get (speci special alloc
tion fund & rural transfer) er) Pr Prim imaril ily to to supp pport basic sic infrastruct cture project ects: – Food secu security ty: Irrigation, dams etc. – Marit itim ime: e: Seaports, shipyards etc. – Connecti ectivit ity: Village roads, public transportation etc. Certa tain in infrastr truct cture e proj
ects to be funded ed and opera perated ted throu
gh a pa partner ership ip between en the Indon
esian ian gov
ernment ment and the e priv ivate secto ctor – Projects ready for auction under the PPP Scheme: – Toll roads projects such as Balikpapan-Samarinda and Manado-Bitung – Railway projects such as an express line into Soekarno-Hatta International Airport – Water supply projects such as the West SemarangProject Vario ious gov
ernmen ment t suppo port t for PPP: P: – Proje
ct Devel elopmen pment t Facil cilit ity (PDF): ): Helps Government Contracting Agencies (GCAs) in project preparation and transaction – Viabil ilit ity y Gap p Fund: improves financial viability of PPP projects – Gov
ernmen ment Guarantees ees: Supports PPP projects’ bankability by providing sovereign guarantees – Infrastructu cture e Financin cing Fund: Provided through PT SMI and IIGF – Availabilit ity Payme yment t (AP): P): GCA pays private partner based of availability of infrastructure services Gov
ernme ment to inject ect capi pita tal into to SOEs Es: Intended multiplier effect to develop more infrastructure projects Key y focu cus area eas: – Infrastructure and maritime development – Transportation and connectivity – Food security Medi dium m term infrastruct cture e develop elopme ments ts to focu cus on: – Water Supply – Airports – Seaports – Electricity and power plants – Housing – Mining
Source : Ministry of Finance; Bappenas; KPPIP: “Komite Kebijakan Percepatan Penyediaan Infrastruktur” or National Committee for the Acceleration of Infrastructure Delivery Note: OBC: Outline Business Case; PDF: Project Development Facility; GCA: Government Contracting Activity
Infrastru tructu cture e Develop
ent t in order to:
Infrastru tructu cture e fundraisin sing needs: s: $357. 57.9 9 bn bn (or equivalent to IDR4,796.2 tn) 245 5 Nati tion
gy Proje
cts under National Medium Term Plan for 2015 – 2019 with an estimated total cost of IDR 4,197 tn (USD 313 bn) 37 prior
ty infrastru tructu ture proj
ects with an estimated cost of IDR 2,490 tn (USD 180 billion) Majority of 37 priority projects are expected to commence commercial operation by 2018 - 2022
Infrastruc uctur ure Development nt is a Key Priorit ity
120
Govern ernment ment Guara rant ntee ee For Basic sic Infrast rastructure cture Development lopment
Reflec ects ts strong
tment ent to nati tiona nal developme pment nt planning nning
Source: Ministry of Finance No. Central Govern ernme ment t Guarantee tee for Infrastru tructu cture Prog
ms Expos posure/ Outsta tstanding ing (USD bn bn) 1 Coal Power Plant 10,000 MW Fast Track Program (FTP 1) 1.75 2 Clean Water Supply Program 0.01 3 Direct Lending from International Financial Institution to SOEs 1.46 4 Sumatra Toll Road 1.53 5 Renewable energy, Coals & Gas Power Plant 10,000 MW (FTP 2) 6.78 6 Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) 3.35 7 Regional Infrastructure Financing 0.19 8 Public Transportation (Light Rail Transit) 0.07 9 Electricity Infrastructure Fast Track Program (35GW) 0.06 Tota tal 15.20 20
Conting tingen ent t Lia iabi bili liti ties es from
ernmen ent t Guara rantee tees Governmen ent t Guarantee ntee Progra gram
Credit it Guaran antee PPP Guarant antee
Busines iness Viability ty Guarante tee (BVG) Power (Elec ectric tricit ity) – Full credit guarantee for PT PLN’s debt payment obligation under FTP 1 10,000MW and 35GW programs*. Cl Clean Water – Guarantee for 70% of PDAM’s debt principal payment obligations. Toll road – Full credit guarantee for PT Hutama Karya’s debt payment obligations for the development of Sumatra Toll Roads. Infrastru tructu cture - Full credit guarantee on SOE’s borrowing from international financial institution & guarantee for PT SMI’s local infrastructure financing. Public ic Transp spor
tati tion
ight t Rail Transit) t) – Full credit guarantee for PT Kereta Api Indonesia’s debt payment
Powe wer (Elec ectric tricit ity) ) – Guarantee for PT PLN’s obligations under Power Purchase Agreements with IPPs (off-take and political risk) under FTP-2 10.000MW and 35GW programs* Infrastru tructu cture – Guarantee for Government-related entities obligations (line ministries, local governments, SOEs, local SOEs) under PPP contracts/agreements From 2008 to Q3-2019, the Government has issued 84 guarantee documents with total value of USD35.44 billion, 23 of which (worth USD3.44 billion) have expired. The Maximum Guarantee Limit for the period 2018 – 2021 is set at 6% of GDP. P. The space for guarantee issuance for the period 2018-2021 is approximately IDR 1,200 trillion (cumulative). As of end of September 2019; currency conversion of IDR 14,147/USD1 (Sept 30, 2019)
Politic ical l Risk Guarantee
Infrastru tructu cture – Guarantee against infrastructure risks for National Strategic Projects (Presidential Decree No.58/2017) which are not covered by other type of guarantees *) MOF provides both credit guarantees and BVGs for 35GW program
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Go Govern ernmen ment t Fina nancial ncial Facilit ilities es for PPP PP Projects jects
Financ ancial ial Facilit ilities ies to to Attrac tract More e Privat vate Parti ticip ipati ation
Those financial facilities were instrumental in supporting the execution of PPP projects, indicated by the signing of financial close
Viabilit ility Gap Fund d (VGF) Projec ect t Develop elopmen ent t Facilit ility (PDF) Gover ernm nmen ent Guar arant antees ees (direc rectly tly by MoF MoF or throug ugh h IIGF) F) Finan ancing ing from PT
Availa vailabil ilit ity Paymen ent t Schem emes es More Funding ing Schem emes es are on the Pipelines elines
Project Financing fund nded by the privat ate sector
the granting of concessions for an operating asset
Project Financing fund nded by any source of funds
management funds (insurance, repatriated funds from tax amnesty, pension funds, etc.), private equity investors and infrastructure funds. Supported & facilitated by National Development Planning Ministry/Bappenas.
years
Scheme e Charac acteris istic ics Scheme e Charac acteris istic ics
LCS (Limit ited ed Concession ion Schem eme) e) PINA (Non-Gover ernm nmen ent Budget get Infras astruc tructure ure Financ ancing) ing)
Source: Ministry of Finance
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Progr gress ess of PPP P Inf nfrastru rastructure ture Project
No No Project Name Project Cost (IDR tn tn) Financ ancial ial Facilit ilities Status us 1 Central Java Power Plant 40 Guarantee (MoF & IIGF) FC on June 6th, 2016; Construction 30%; COD Target: May 2020 2 Palapa Ring – West Package 1.28 PDF, IIGF Guarantee & AP FC on August 11th, 2016; COD target: February 2018 3 Palapa Ring – Central Package 1.38 PDF, IIGF Guarantee & AP FC on September 29th, 2016; COD target: March 2018 4 Palapa Ring – East Package 5.13 PDF, IIGF Guarantee & AP FC on March 29th, 2017; COD target: September 2018 5 Umbulan Water 2.1 PDF, VGF & IIGF Guarantee FC on August 30th, 2016; COD target: July 2019
Succes essful ful Projec ects ts Reaching hing Financi ncial l Close e in 2016 and 2017
No No Project ct Name Project Cost (IDR tn tn) Financ ancial ial Faciliti ilities Status us 1 Batang–Semarang Toll Road 11 IIGF Guarantee PPP & guarantee contracts signed on April 27th, 2016 2 Manado–Bitung Toll Road 5.1 IIGF Guarantee PPP & guarantee contracts signed on June 8th, 2016 3 Samarinda–Balikpapan Toll Road 9.9 IIGF Guarantee PPP & guarantee contracts signed on June 8th, 2016 4 Pandaan–Malang Toll Road 5.9 IIGF Guarantee PPP & guarantee contracts signed on June 8th, 2016 5 Serpong–Balaraja Toll Road 6.0
6 Jakarta–Cikampek Elevated Toll Road 14.8 Co guarantee (MoF & IIGF) PPP & guarantee contracts both signed on December 5th, 2016 and February 22nd, 2017 7 Krian–Legundi-Krian Toll Road 9.0 Co guarantee (MoF & IIGF) PPP & guarantee contracts both signed on December 5th, 2016 and February 22nd, 2017 8 Serang–Panimbang Toll Road 5.3 Co guarantee (MoF & IIGF) PPP & guarantee contracts signed on February 22nd, 2017 9 Cileunyi–Sumedang-Dawuan Toll Road 8.2 Co guarantee (MoF & IIGF) PPP & guarantee contracts signed on February 22nd, 2017
Signed ed PPP Projects ects in 2016 and 2017
Source: Ministry of Finance, as of July 2017
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New Guarant antee e Schemes emes for Non-PP PPP P Proj
ects
The Government had issued Presidential idential Regu egulati lation No No 82 82/2015 and Mini Ministry of
Finan nance Regu egulati lation No No 189 189/2015 to provide guarantee for SOE Direct Lending from IFIs for the Development of Infrastructure Projects. Guarant rantee ee on SOE Direc ect Lending ding from Internat rnational ional Financ ancial ial Instit itutions utions (IFIs Is) Guarant rantee ee for Regiona ional l Infras rastruct ructur ure e Financ ancing ing Provis ision ion State e financ ance e soundne ness Fiscal al sustainab inabiliy iliy Best practi tice e of fiscal al risk managem gemen ent The objective of this guarantee is to to provid vide e credit dit enhancem ncemen ent in terms of low
rest rate and long g tenor fina nanci ncing ng, with 3 main princi nciples les:
The Government had issued Minis inistry of
Fin Finance nce Regulation egulation No No 174 174 of
2016 to provide guarantee to PT SMI on the assignment
regional infrastructure financing provision, by loan to local governments that is transferred from PIP to PT SMI, and new loan channeled by PT SMI to the local government. Based
Gover
nment nt Regulation egulation No
95/2015 2015 and Min inis istry of
Finance ce Regulation egulation No
232/2015 2015, Minister of Finance assigns PT SMI (Sarana Multi Infrastruktur) to carry out functions in providing loan to local government, as previously carried
by PIP (Government Investment Center). The objective is to giv give stimulus imulus to to the acc accele elerat ation ion
lo local cal infrastr infrastruct uctur ure dev evelopment elopment through the ease of access to infrastructure financing and to boost local economic growth, as well as to provide alternative financing schemes in
to meet local infrastructure development needs and to reduce reliance on state/local budget.
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