1 Modeling Committee Meeting December 5, 2017 202 202 Panhandle - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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1 Modeling Committee Meeting December 5, 2017 202 202 Panhandle - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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202 202 Panhandle Regional Water Plan 1 Modeling Committee Meeting December 5, 2017 202 202 Panhandle Regional Water Plan 1 Outline Evaluation of GAM RUN 16-031 MAG Seymour and Blaine Evaluation of GAM RUN 16-029 MAG

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Modeling Committee Meeting

December 5, 2017

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Outline

  • Evaluation of GAM RUN 16-031 MAG
  • Seymour and Blaine
  • Evaluation of GAM RUN 16-029 MAG
  • Ogallala and Dockum
  • Allocation of Availability

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Evaluation of GAM RUN 16-031 MAG

Seymour and Blaine

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Seymour and Bla lain ine MAGs: 2012 and 2017

2012 MAGs

Cou

  • unty

Aq Aquif uifer 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Chil hildress Seymour 732 717 712 712 712 712 Coll

  • llingsworth

th Seymour 16,010 14,250 13,348 11,329 10,241 10,241 Ha Hall Seymour 12,020 11,462 10,866 11,085 11,172 11,172 Chil hildress Blaine 15,206 15,206 15,206 15,206 15,206 15,206 Coll

  • llingsworth

th Blaine 185,376 185,376 185,376 185,376 185,376 185,376 Ha Hall Blaine 11,509 11,509 11,509 11,509 11,509 11,509

2017 MAGs

Cou

  • unty

Aq Aquif uifer 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Chil hildress Seymour 2,961 3,246 3,317 3,308 3,317 3,297 Coll

  • llingsworth

th Seymour 41,345 31,492 28,657 27,165 22,395 22,769 Ha Hall Seymour 15,446 16,751 19,666 22,861 25,861 24,595 Chil hildress Blaine 23,575 23,510 23,575 23,510 23,575 23,510 Coll

  • llingsworth

th Blaine 2,060 2,054 2,060 2,054 2,060 2,054 Ha Hall Blaine 5,856 5,840 5,856 5,840 5,856 5,840

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  • 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

Modeled Available Groundwater Estimates (Acre-Feet per Year)

Childress County Seymour and Blaine MAG Comparison

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Blaine Seymour

2012 2017 2012 2017

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  • 20,000

40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000

Modeled Available Groundwater Estimates (Acre-Feet per Year)

Collingsworth County Seymour and Blaine MAG Comparison

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Blaine Seymour

2012 2017 2012 2017

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  • 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Modeled Available Groundwater Estimates (Acre-Feet per Year)

Hall County Seymour and Blaine MAG Comparison

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Blaine Seymour

2012 2017 2012 2017

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Summary: Seymour and Blaine

  • MAG volumes decrease significantly from 2012 to

2017 for the Blaine Aquifer in Collingsworth and Hall Counties

  • MAG volumes increase for the Blaine Aquifer in

Childress County from 2012 to 2017

  • Seymour Aquifer MAG volumes increase for all

three counties from 2012 to 2017

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500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Modeled Available Groundwater Estimates (Acre Feet per Year)

Region A All Aquifers MAG Comparison 2017 and 2012

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Ogallala Ogallala Ogallala Ogallala Ogallala Dockum Dockum Dockum Dockum Dockum

Blaine Blaine Seymour Seymour

2012 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2012 2012 2012 2012

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Evaluation of GAM RUN 16-029 MAG

Ogallala and Dockum

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GAM RUN 16-029 MAG

  • MODFLOW-NWT reduces pumping when saturated

thickness reaches 30 feet

  • How does pumping (and thus availability) change

through time?

  • Where do cutbacks occur?
  • What is the Ogallala saturated thickness through time?
  • If and how might this affect availability through planning

period and for different WUGs?

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Total Requested Pumping per Year

Entire Model Area

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Total Requested Pumping per Year

GMA 1 Area

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Total Requested Pumping per Year

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Pumping Reductions in in HPAS GAM

  • The MODFLOW-NWT model

assumes well production decreases when saturated thickness reaches 30 feet

  • Cutbacks occur only in the

Ogallala in MAG run

  • Most cutbacks are in western

counties of GMA 1

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Total Actual Pumpin ing (after cutbacks)

Entire Model Area

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Total Actual Pumpin ing (after cutbacks)

GMA 1 Area

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Annual l Pumpin ing per r Co County (a (aft fter cutb tbacks)

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Pumping Defi ficiency

Entire Model Area

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Pumping Defi ficiency

GMA 1 Area

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Pumping Defi ficiency per County

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Projected Ogallala Saturated Thic ickness

  • Ogallala saturated thickness declining throughout

model run from 2020 to 2070

  • Max decline of 270 feet thickness in 2070
  • Largest saturated thickness decline effects
  • bserved in the western Region A counties
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2020 Projected Ogallala Aquifer Thic ickness

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Gray zones are less than 30 feet saturated thickness

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2030 Projected Ogallala Aquifer Thic ickness

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2040 Projected Ogallala Aquifer Thickness

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2050 Projected Ogallala Aquifer Thickness

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2060 Projected Ogallala Aquifer Thickness

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2070 Projected Ogallala Aquifer Thickness

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Ogallala Thic ickness Less than 30 feet

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Percent Ogallala Thic ickness Less than 30 feet

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Supply All llocations – Ogallala Aquifer

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Considerations

  • Constrained geographically?
  • Decadal decline considerations?
  • Rate of decline?
  • MAG limitation
  • Competition for limited supplies?

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Approach fr from Last Round

  • 1. Modified modeling approach

a. Put a well in every gridblock b. Perform “annual” modeling to match DFC locally c. Yielded a “supply” for every gridblock

  • 2. Allocate supply geographically

a. Designate IRR and MUN b. Add buffers to account for lateral flow

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2020 Ogallala Thickness Le Less th than 30 ft ft

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2030 Ogallala Thickness Le Less th than 30 ft ft

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2040 Ogallala Thickness Le Less th than 30 ft ft

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2050 Ogallala Thickness Le Less th than 30 ft ft

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2060 Ogallala Thickness Le Less th than 30 ft ft

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2070 Ogallala Thickness Le Less th than 30 ft ft

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Example: Ogallala Availability by Type

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Example: Ogallala Availability by Type

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Example: Ogallala Availability by Type

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Recommendations

  • Use the GAM RUN 16-029 MAG as is
  • Allocate irrigation and municipal availability

according to distribution used in previous round of planning

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Questions?

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