Ma ximizing the Clima te e nviro nme nt whe re individua ls, so c - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ma ximizing the Clima te Se c urity Be ne fits o f E xte rna l E me rg e nc y Assista nc e

S.V.R.K . PRABHAK AR, K . T AMURA, AND M. I K E DA I NST I T UT E F OR GL OBAL E NVI RONME NT AL ST RAT E GI E S, HAYAMA, JAPAN

Clima te Se c urity

 Se c urity re fe rs to the po litic a l, institutio na l a nd so c ia l

e nviro nme nt whe re individua ls, so c ie tie s a nd c o untrie s ha ve fre e do m to de c ide the ir c urre nt a nd future we llb e ing .

 Clima te se c urity re fe rs to the thre a ts po se d b y the c lima te

c ha ng e to the se c urity o f individua l huma n b e ing s, so c ie tie s a nd c o untrie s.

 Clima te se c urity is a n impo rta nt issue fo r b o th the

de ve lo pe d a nd de ve lo ping c o untrie s.

Clima te Se c urity is Bo th a De c isio n F ra me wo rk a nd a n Outc o me

Pra b ha ka r, 2019

Clima te Se c urity is Pe rva sive : Ja pa n

 Ja pa n’ s c lima te se c urity

c o nc e rns o rig ina te b o th fro m within a nd a c ro ss its b o rde rs.



F

• od a nd wa te r: Ja pa n

impo rts mo re fre shwa te r tha n the wa te r withdra wn within its b o rde rs.

 Ja pa n sa ve s ne a rly 20 km3 o f

wa te r b y impo rting fo o d.

 Clima te c ha ng e impa c ts o n

c o untrie s fro m whe re Ja pa n impo rts fo o d me a ns fo o d a nd wa te r inse c urity fo r Ja pa n.

I nuzuka e t a l., 2008

Millio n m3/ ye a r

I mpa c t o f Ba ng ko k flo o ds (2011) o n Ja pa n

 A to ta l e stima te d lo ss o f 47 b illio n USD 90% o f the lo sse s we re a c c rue d to

Ja pa ne se c o mpa nie s a nd re la te d inve stme nts.

 Mo re tha n 550 Ja pa ne se a ffilia te firms we re a ffe c te d b y the se flo o ds,

pro duc tio n fa c ilitie s suc h a s b uilding s a nd ma c hine ry we re se ve re ly a ffe c te d.

 As the se firms pro vide supplie s to o the r fa c to rie s in Ma la ysia , Vie tna m

a nd I ndo ne sia a nd o the r pa rts o f the wo rld, the pro duc tio n o f the se fa c to rie s we re a lso a ffe c te d due to the sho c k to the supply c ha ins.

 T

he lo ss b o rne b y the Ja pa ne se insura nc e c o mpa nie s sto o d a t a b o ut 1.8 b illio n USD.

 T

he impa c t o n the industria l pro duc tio n o f the wo rld wa s e stima te d to b e 2.5% (Ha ra g uc hi & L a ll, 2015).

Ja pa n’ s F DI s ha ve b e e n inc re a sing in the ASE AN Re g io n a nd will inc re a se in the future



Ja pa n’ s F DI

• utflo ws to Asia n c o untrie s ha ve b e e n

inc re a sing in the pa st de c a de . F DI ha ve inc re a se d e spe c ia lly in T ha ila nd a fte r a b rie f de c line a fte rma th 2011 flo o ds



T he re a re pro je c tio ns fo r mo re Ja pa ne se c o mpa nie s to inc re a se inve stme nts in ASE AN a nd China (JE T RO 2018)

So urc e : MOF , 2018

(JE T RO 2018)

Ja pa n is a n Importa nt E me rg e nc y Re lie f Provide r

JI CA, 2016

Ja pa n’ s Disa ste r Re lie f T e a m & Re lie f Ma te ria l De plo yme nt

19 57 46

17

1 499 100 200 300 400 500 600

Re sc ue te a m Me dic a l te a m E xpe rt te a m SDF Dise a se re spo nse te a m Pro visio n o f supplie s

No o f time s Co mpo ne nt De plo ye d

Ja pa n's Disa ste r Re spo nse T e a m De plo yme nts during 1987-2016

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

No o f time s Ye a r

JI CA, 2016

I O T suna mi

PNG, Ba ng la de sh, Do minic a , Nic a ra g ua , Ho ndura s, Co lumb ia

Ja pa n’ s E xte rna l E me rg e nc y Re lie f Burde n Ca n Gro w in the F uture

JI CA, 2017

 Ove ra ll lo sse s due to e xtra tro pic a l

c yc lo ne s will inc re a se , with po ssib le de c re a se s o r no c ha ng e in so me a re a s (me dium c o nfide nc e )

 L

ike ly inc re a se in a ve ra g e tro pic a l

c yc lo ne ma ximum wind spe e d

 F

uture flo o d lo sse s in ma ny lo c a tio ns will inc re a se (hig h a g re e me nt)

I PCC SRE X 2012. I PCC 2015

Ho w Clima te Cha ng e T hre a te ns Na tio na l Se c urity?

 Mo re tha n

70% o f c o untrie s’ milita rie s ha ve huma nita ria n a ssista nc e a nd re lie f a s a c ritic a l missio n.

I nstitutio na l Co sts o f E xte rna l E me rg e nc y Assista nc e

 I

n a dditio n to the dire c t c o sts o f de plo ying the re lie f a ssista nc e , se ve ra l a rms o f the Go ve rnme nt o f Ja pa n a re invo lve d fro m the time the e xte rna l e me rg e nc y a ssista nc e re q ue st is re c e ive d to the time the a ssista nc e is de plo ye d.

 T

he se c o sts a re o fte n no t a c c o unte d into the c o st o f E E A de plo yme nt whic h c o uld b e sig nific a nt.

 T

he se c o sts a re a c c rue d b o th o n the re c ipie nt side a nd o n the do no r side .

MOF A 2018

I mpo rta nt Co nside ra tio ns fo r Ja pa n to E nsure Clima te Se c urity Outc o me s o f E E A

 I

nc re a se d e ffic ie nc y o f de plo yme nt o f e me rg e nc y a ssista nc e

 Quic k a ssista nc e  Appro pria te a ssista nc e  Stra te g ic a ssista nc e

 I

nc re a se d o ve ra ll b e ne fits fro m e xte rna l e me rg e nc y a ssista nc e

 Prio ritize a ssista nc e to c o untrie s a nd lo c a tio ns whe re Ja pa n’ s stra te g ic

inte re sts re st (c o untrie s with sig nific a nt Ja pa n’ s F DI ? ) = No t Huma nita ria n!

 Co nne c t sho rt-te rm E

E A e ng a g e me nts with lo ng -te rm risk re duc tio n inve stme nts in a ffe c te d c o untrie s? Curre ntly the re is no e vide nc e

Critic a l T hre sho lds Co nc e pt

 Wha t it is? Critic a l thre sho lds re fe rs to the lo we st le ve l o f ha za rd (e ithe r

b y inte nsity/ dura tio n/ ma g nitude ), o r le ve l o f lo c a l c a pa c itie s o r a c o mb ina tio n o f b o th tha t re sult in a c a ll fo r e xte rna l a ssista nc e b y a c o untry.

 Wha t it c a n he lp a c hie ve ?  He lp b e tte r unde rsta nd the na ture o f impe nding a ssista nc e ne e ds  He lp de live r a ppro pria te a ssista nc e (a mo unt, kind, dura tio n e tc .)  Be tte r unde rsta nd the a ssista nc e pre pa re dne ss ne e de d  De sig n a ssista nc e ke e ping in vie w the imme dia te a nd lo ng -te rm

ne e ds fo r ma ximizing the c lima te se c urity

I de ntifying the Critic a l T hre sho ld o f Assista nc e fo r Vulne ra b le Co untrie s



Co untry a ssista nc e re q uire me nt=f(da ma g e thre sho ld, c urre nt ye a r GDP, disa ste r pre pa re dne ss, …)



So me c o untrie s will ha ve a re lia b le da ma g e thre sho ld- a ssista nc e re la tio nships (e .g . Co untry A a nd B), whe re the c o nc e pt o f c ritic a l thre sho lds fo r Assista nc e wo rk we ll.



Co untrie s whe re suc h func tio n is no t c le a r (e .g . Co untry E a nd H), due to va rie d c a pa c itie s within the c o untry, c ritic a l thre sho ld sho uld b e furthe r spe c ia lize d to ta ke into c o untry c irc umsta nc e s.



T he re se a rc h ne e d to ide ntify suc h c irc umsta nc e s fo r re lia b le e stima tio n o f a ssista nc e thre sho lds fo r the se c o untrie s tha t a lso wo rks fo r a ll o the r c o untrie s. One a ppro a c h is to ha ve a hig h re so lutio n o f the thre sho ld i.e . to ha ve sub -re g io na l thre sho lds fo r the se func tio ns to wo rk we ll. Co untry A Co untry B Co untry C Co untry D Co untry E Co untry F Co untry G Co untry H Co untry I

Co nne c t Sho rt-te rm E E A E ng a g e me nts with L

• ng -te rm Risk Re duc tio n

 R&R is c o nstitute d o f sho rt pe rio d o f time whe re la rg e sums o f re so urc e s will b e

spe nt.

 Muc h o f the se e xpe nditure s ma y no t le a d to lo ng -te rm risk mitig a tio n b e ne fits.  L

inking e xpe rie nc e s a nd le sso ns fro m e ng a g e me nts re la te d to E E A a nd plo ug hing b a c k into o the r pha se s o f DRR spira l c o uld e nha nc e the va lue o f re so urc e s e mplo ye d during the e me rg e nc y pha se .

Pre pa re dne ss Mitig a tio n Pre pa re dne ss R&R Re c o nstruc tio n

T he Ope r a tiona l F r a me wor k of the E xte r na l E me r g e nc y Assista nc e be twe e n Ja pa n & the Philippine s



NDRRMC pla ys a c ruc ia l ro le in re c o mme nding de c la ra tio n o f c a la mity in the Philippine s.



Ja pa n a lwa ys se nd e me rg e nc y a ssista nc e o nly upo n re q ue st



Critic a l thre sho ld c o nc e pt wo rks b e st fo r vo lunta ry de plo yme nt o f a ssista nc e

Ca la mity e xc e e d s the thre sho ld ide ntifie d b y NDRRMC

Ye s

No inte rna tio na l c a ll fo r a ssista nc e

No Pr e side nt

De c la ra tio n o f the Sta te o f Ca la mity Ca ll fo r I nte rna tio na l Assista nc e Ja pa ne se E mb a ssy in Ma nila MOF A Co nc e rne d g o ve rnme nt a g e nc ie s JI CA/ MI L T / SDF e tc Orde r dispa tc h/ de live ry NDRRMC Re c o mme nds OCD <-> NDRRMC OCD, DF A, Do F , DSWD, DL I G e tc . L

• c a litie s

PDNA Cr itic a l thre shold Ye s

No Ja pa n

F e e db a c k lo o p fo r lo ng -te rm risk mitig a tio n De plo y na tio na l re spo nse me c ha nism

Struc ture o f Disc ussio n Se ssio n

 Round 1: E

xpe rie nc e s with the e xte rna l e me rg e nc y a ssista nc e (E E A)

 Round 2: L

• ng - te rm be ne fits of e xte rna l e me rg e nc y a ssista nc e

 Round 3: F

uture E E A ne e ds

 Round 4: Pre - e mpting the E

E A ne e ds a nd de ployme nt

 Round 5: Critic a l thre shold- ba se d de c ision support syste m (DSS), fo r

pre -e mpting the E E A