The Electricity Supply Industry Planning Council T he Pla nning - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Electricity Supply Industry Planning Council � T he Pla nning Co unc il is a sta tuto ry c o rpo ra tio n fo rme d unde r the E le c tric ity Ac t � Ope ra te s unde r the c o ntro l o f a Bo a rd o f 5 me mb e rs � thre e me mb e rs re pre se nt industry se c to rs; � the c ha ir a nd o ne me mb e r a re inde pe nde nt � T he E le c tric ity Ac t a nd o ur Cha rte r se t o ut o ur func tio ns a nd o b lig a tio ns � A sma ll c o rpo ra tio n o f 9 e mplo ye e s Slide: 1

Slide: 2 y Planning Counc il ElectraNet Revenue Proposal AER Public Forum 24 July 2007 ic ity Supply Industr le c tr E

Role of the Planning Council T he Pla nning Co unc il wa s e sta b lishe d to : � re vie w the de ve lo pme nt pla ns o f the priva te industry pa rtic ipa nts a g a inst the fo re c a st ne e ds o f the Sta te ; � pro vide inde pe nde nt, e xpe rt a dvic e to the Go ve rnme nt a nd the E sse ntia l Se rvic e s Co mmissio n o f So uth Austra lia (E SCOSA); a nd � fulfil a numb e r o f So uth Austra lia n re pre se nta tive ro le s in the Na tio na l E le c tric ity Ma rke t. Slide: 3

Regulated Electricity Services The Planning Council encourages efficient outcomes in the regulated network services sector of the industry by: � lia ising with sta te a nd fe de ra l re g ula to rs to e nsure tha t ne two rk re g ula tio n is e ffe c tive fo r SA; � wo rking with ne two rk se rvic e pro vide rs o n the e ffic ie nt, lo ng te rm de ve lo pme nt o f the po we r syste m a nd o f spe c ific ne two rk so lutio ns; � c o lla b o ra ting with NE MMCO a nd inte rsta te pla nning b o die s se e king to e nsure e ffic ie nt de ve lo pme nt o f the na tio na l ne two rk; a nd � unde rsta nding the inte r-re la tio nship b e twe e n the c o mpe titive a nd re g ula te d ma rke t se c to rs. Slide: 4

Reset Review • T he Pla nning Co unc il ha s re vie we d the ne two rk a ug me nta tio ns in E le c tra Ne t’ s sub missio n a s a c o re pa rt o f wo rk o n re g ula te d ne two rk se rvic e s • a ll a ug me nta tio n to the tra nsmissio n ne two rk pro po se d within the re ve nue re se t is so le ly drive n b y the ne e d to c o mply with re lia b ility sta nda rds in the So uth Austra lia E le c tric ity T ra nsmissio n Co de (E T C) • po te ntia l a ug me nta tio ns drive n b y ma rke t b e ne fits (e g inte rc o nne c to r upg ra de s) a re o nly inc lude d a s c o nting e nt pro je c ts Slide: 5

Reset Review T he Pla nning Co unc il: • pro duc e s the Sta te wide de ma nd a nd e ne rg y fo re c a sts a nd re c o nc ile s tho se with c o nne c tio n po int fo re c a sts de ve lo pe d b y E T SA Utilitie s • ha s a pplie d the fo re c a st lo a ds fo r ye a r 2011/ 12 to the c urre nt ne two rk a nd ide ntifie d a re a s whe re sta nda rds in the E T C a re e xpe c te d to b e b re a c he d • c ro ss c he c ke d ide ntifie d re lia b ility c o nstra ints with E le c tra Ne t’ s pro po se d pro je c ts • unde rta ke n a numb e r o f a na lysis in re g io ns to a sc e rta in whe the r the pro po se d pro je c ts a re like ly to re pre se nt c lo se to o ptima l ne two rk de ve lo pme nt Slide: 6

Electricity Transmission Code � E T C re lia b ility re la te s to the agr e e d maximum de mand a t a c o nne c tio n po int � T he a g re e d ma ximum de ma nd is se t b e twe e n E T SA Utilitie s a nd E le c tra Ne t b a se d o n E T SA’ s c o nne c tio n po int fo re c a sts � E SI PC pro duc e s sta te wide fo re c a sts a nnua lly a nd re c o nc ile s the 10% pro b a b ility o f e xc e e da nc e fo re c a st with the se c o nne c tio n po int fo re c a sts � T he Pla nning Co unc il a pplie d a ne w te c hniq ue fo r fo re c a sting summe r pe a k de ma nd fo r the first time this ye a r Slide: 7

Sales and Demand Forecasts � Sa le s a nd De ma nd fo re c a sts � E c o no mic a ssumptio ns � T ra nsmissio n c o nne c tio n po int fo re c a sts Slide: 8

Customer Sales � Sa le s ha ve b e e n g ro wing stro ng ly in the la st two ye a rs � 5.3% g ro wth in 06-07 a nd 9.1% o ve r pa st two ye a rs � pric e re spo nse we a ke ning ; dro ug ht & pumping lo a ds; we a the r e ffe c ts o n sa le s � L o we r g ro wth e xpe c te d in 07-08 – a ssume s re turn to a ve ra g e we a the r � Ave ra g e g ro wth o f 1.3% o ve r ne xt de c a de (b a se c a se e c o no mic o utlo o k) � 0.9% fo r re side ntia l se c to r; 1.8% fo r b usine ss sa le s � fo re c a sts a ssume c a rb o n pric e sig na l fro m 12-13 � Hig h c a se inc lude s ma jo r e xpa nsio n o f Olympic Da m mining o pe ra tio n Slide: 9

Slide: 10 Customer Sales 2016-17 2015-16 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 2006-07 2005-06 2004-05 2003-04 2002-03 2001-02 2000-01 Actual Base High Low 1999-00 1998-99 1997-98 1996-97 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 Customer sales GWh

System Load Factor � F o llo wing sho ws syste m lo a d fa c to r b a se d o n 50% Po E o utc o me s a nd inc luding wind g e ne ra tio n � L o a d fa c to r pro je c te d to re ma in sta b le a t a ro und 53 % thro ug h the re ve nue re se t pe rio d � L o w b y industry sta nda rds b ut so me impro ve me nt if Olympic Da m e xpa nsio n pro c e e ds Slide: 11

Slide: 12 System Load Factor 2012-13 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 2006-07 2005-06 Actual Base High Low 2004-05 2003-04 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 load factor %

Summer Peak Demand � F o llo wing fo c use s o n ‘ Native De mand’ whic h inc lude s: � pe a k sc he dule d de ma nd; � ma rke t no n-sc he dule d g e ne ra tio n; � wind g e ne ra tio n; a nd � no tifie d de ma nd side pa rtic ipa tio n � Ac tua l 06-07 pe a k o f 2,942 MW o n 16 Ja n 07 (e stima te d 52% Po E o utc o me ) � hig he r pe a k re a c he d in 05-06 (2,953 MW, 20 Ja n 06; 30% Po E o utc o me ) � ho we ve r la st summe r e xpe rie nc e d 5 da ys with de ma nd o ve r 2,800 a nd re c o rd no n-wo rk da y pe a k o f 2,866 MW o n 17 F e b 07 Slide: 13

Slide: 14 Summer Peak Demand 2016-17 2015-16 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 2006-07 2005-06 Backcast PoE levels 2004-05 10% PoE demand 50% PoE demand 90% PoE demand 2003-04 2002-03 2001-02 Actual 2000-01 1999-00 1998-99 1997-98 5,000 4,750 4,500 4,250 4,000 3,750 3,500 3,250 3,000 2,750 2,500 2,250 Native demand MW

50% PoE Summer Peak Demand Ba se c a se : � fo re c a st 50% Po E le ve l fo r 07-08 is 3,069 MW � c o mpa re s with 2,942 MW la st summe r � up b y 119 MW o n b a c kc a st 06-07 50% le ve l, � fo re c a st a ve ra g e g ro wth o f 2.2% o ve r ne xt 10 ye a rs � fo re c a st fo r 2012/ 13 is 3,408 MW Slide: 15

10% PoE Summer Peak Demand Ba se c a se : � fo re c a st 10% Po E le ve l fo r 07-08 is 3,363 MW � up b y 143 MW o n b a c kc a st 06-07 10% Po Ele ve l, � a ve ra g e g ro wth o f 2.3% o ve r ne xt te n yrs � fo re c a st fo r 2012/ 13 is 3,736 MW L o w c a se : � fo re c a st fo r 2012/ 13 is 3,534 MW Hig h Ca se : � g ro wth o f 4.9% pa b a se d o n stro ng g ro wth in the re so urc e s se c to r a nd the SA e c o no my � fo re c a st fo r 2012/ 13 is 4,441 MW Slide: 16

10% PoE Summer Peak Demand Ba se c a se : � fo re c a st 10% Po E le ve l fo r 07-08 is 3,363 MW � up b y 143 MW o n b a c kc a st 06-07 10% Po Ele ve l, � a ve ra g e g ro wth o f 2.3% o ve r ne xt te n yrs � fo re c a st fo r 2012/ 13 is 3,736 MW L o w c a se : � fo re c a st fo r 2012/ 13 is 3,534 MW Hig h Ca se : � g ro wth o f 4.9% pa b a se d o n stro ng g ro wth in the re so urc e s se c to r a nd the SA e c o no my � F o re c a st fo r 2012/ 13 is 4,441 MW Slide: 17

Economic assumptions � E c o no mic a ssumptio ns a re tho se supplie d b y NI E I R fo r the 2007 Sta te me nt o f Oppo rtunitie s � GSP � Ba se c a se a ssume s ro b ust g ro wth o f 2.3% in 07-08 (up fro m 1.7% in 06-07) � slo we r g ro wth in 08-09 & 09-10 � me dium te rm o utlo o k a ssume s stro ng c o mmo dity pric e s a nd mining a c tivity in Austra lia � Po pula tio n � Ba se c a se a ssume s a ve ra g e po pula tio n g ro wth a ro und 0.5% a nnua lly � Re ta il pric e s � Ba se c a se - $15/ t c a rb o n pric e sig na l pha se d o ve r 5 ye a rs fro m 12-13 Slide: 18

Slide: 19 Economic assumptions - GSP Jun-17 Jun-16 Jun-15 Jun-14 Jun-13 Jun-12 Jun-11 Jun-10 Jun-09 Jun-08 Jun-07 Base Low Jun-06 Jun-05 Jun-04 Jun-03 Actual Jun-02 High Jun-01 Jun-00 Jun-99 5 4 3 2 1 0 Real GSP growth rate %

Economic assumptions - Population Slide: 20 2016-17 2015-16 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 2006-07 2005-06 PlgSA 2m by 2050 2004-05 ABS Series B 2003-04 2002-03 2001-02 Actual Base High Low 2000-01 1999-00 1998-99 1997-98 1,700 1,650 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,450 Population 000's

Retail price assumptions Slide: 21 Jun-17 Jun-16 Jun-15 Jun-14 Jun-13 Jun-12 Jun-11 Jun-10 Jun-09 Jun-08 Jun-07 Base Jun-06 Low Jun-05 Jun-04 Jun-03 Jun-02 Actual High Jun-01 Jun-00 Jun-99 Jun-98 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 Average price 05-06 c/kWh