■ MISOURI - m DEPARTMENT OF l!fl NATURAL RESOURCES 2010 1-hour Sulfur Dioxide (SO 2 ) Standard: December 2020 Designations Proposed Area Boundary Recommendations Prepared for the Missouri Air Conservation Commission Public Hearing March 26, 2020
■ MISOURI - m DEPARTMENT OF l!fl NATURAL RESOURCES Overview • Clean Air Act Designations Process • Implementation - 2010 SO 2 Standard • EPA’s Round 4 Designations Guidance • Technical Analysis • Recommendation Summary • Timeline 2
■ MISOURI - m DEPARTMENT OF l!fl NATURAL RESOURCES Clean Air Act Designations Process • When EPA revises a standard, EPA must identify or "designate" areas as meeting or not meeting the standard • States provide input to EPA through boundary recommendations based on technical evaluations of available data • EPA provides feedback to states 120 days prior to final designations, “120-day letters” 3
■ MISOURI - m DEPARTMENT OF l!fl NATURAL RESOURCES Implementation – 2010 SO 2 Standard • 2010 1-hour Standard set at 75 ppb • State submitted recommendations for entire state in April 2013 – EPA completed first round based on existing monitoring data on August 5, 2013 • March 2015 Federal Consent Decree – EPA completed second round on June 30, 2016; – EPA completed third round on December 31, 2017; and – EPA plans to complete fourth round by December 31, 2020. 4
SO 2 NAAQS Area Designations (2010 1-hour) 2010 1-hour NAAQS Legend - Non attainment A re as - Unclassifia ble Areas LJ Und esign ated Areas LJ Attainment/Lnclassifiable Are as a - - Mil es MISSOURI DEPAR T MENT OF 0 12 .5 25 50 75 NATURAL RCSO U RC ES D ivis ion of E n\A r on me. n ta l 0 1.G lity Air P oJ l ution Con 1r oJ P rog ram Pr ep,3 red:Ja nu a ry. 18. 20 18 5
■ MISOURI - m DEPARTMENT OF l!fl NATURAL RESOURCES EPA’s Round 4 Designations Guidance • Designations based on 2017-2019 monitoring data at newly installed SO 2 monitors (80 FR 51052) • For violating monitors, states may use modeling to evaluate boundaries as part of a 5-factor technical analysis: 1. Monitoring/Modeling data 2. Emissions information 3. Meteorology 4. Topography 5. Jurisdictional boundaries 6
■ MISOURI - m DEPARTMENT OF l!fl NATURAL RESOURCES Technical Analysis – Areas Evaluated • Iron County Doe Run – Buick • New Madrid County Magnitude 7 Metals Associated Electric Cooperative Inc. (AECI) – New Madrid Power Plant 7
■ MISOURI - m DEPARTMENT OF l!fl NATURAL RESOURCES Technical Analysis – Monitoring Data (Iron County) 85 99 th Percentile 1-hr SO 2 2010 SO 2 Standard Concentration (ppb) 75 (75 ppb) 65 55 45 35 25 * 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Monitoring Site 3-Year Design Value (2017-2019*) Graph Legend • Buick Northeast (state site) 48 • County Road 75 39 • Hwy 32 Northeast 50 • West Entrance 42 8 *2019 monitoring data is preliminary, and has not yet been quality assured or certified
MISOURI ■ - m DEPARTMENT OF l!fl NATURAL RESOURCES Technical Analysis – Proposed Recommendation (Iron County) • Monitors all in compliance with SO 2 standard • No further 5-factor evaluation needed • All of Iron County is recommended for attainment/unclassifiable 9
■ MISOURI - m DEPARTMENT OF l!fl NATURAL RESOURCES Technical Analysis – Monitoring Data (New Madrid County) 99 th Percentile 1-hr SO 2 Concentration (ppb) 375 300 225 150 2010 SO 2 Standard 75 (75 ppb) 0 * 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Monitoring Site 3-Year Design Value (2017-2019*) Graph Legend • AECI Water Tower 202 • East Graveyard 268 • West Entrance 47 *2019 monitoring data is preliminary, and has not yet been quality assured or certified 10
■ MISOURI - m DEPARTMENT OF l!fl NATURAL RESOURCES Technical Analysis – Modeling (New Madrid County) • The analysis specifically modeled two sources - – New Madrid Power Plant – Magnitude 7 Metals • New Madrid Power Plant emissions based on continuous emissions monitoring system (CEMS) data • Magnitude 7 Metals emissions based on mass balance worksheets 11
MISOURI ■ - m DEPARTMENT OF l!fl NATURAL RESOURCES Technical Analysis (Modeling Scenarios) The air program modeled six scenarios to inform the recommended nonattainment boundary Modeling Scenarios Purpose Determine best way to characterize Scenarios 1-3 Magnitude 7 Metals emissions in 2018 Determine best way to characterize Scenarios 4-5 Magnitude 7 Metals emissions in 2019 Model 2017-2019 area design values to Scenario 6* inform the recommended boundary * Scenario 6 – Conservative case, assumes continuous operation at Magnitude 7 Metals during each of the three years (2017-2019). 12
~ ~i~i~i~ Technical Analysis - Modeled Design Values (New Madrid County) 2017-2019 Missouri Kentucky .. Modeled Design OOcoo ci' QOOOOOOOOOOCD 0 00 0- 00 0 J> 00 B • • o°o Value: 425 ppb ~ ~ ~ r~ .. 8 •••• 0 o gooooooJ . : Based on conservative 8:,00000009 •••••••• 0 ••••••••• 0 . , (worst case) scenario - 0 • ..... • assumes three full years • • • • • of continuous operation • : c•••!), e at Magnitude 7 Metals >t,ghway 431 • • \ ............... .. •• • • •• • •• • • • •• • • • • : •• o : . 8 • 0 • ,• g o 000000000000000 .......... 0000000000000000000 0 New Madrid County County Highway 408 • Scenario 6 - Modeled Receptors Violating the 2010 SO2 Standard (2017-2019) o NMPP Property Boundary • M7M Property Boundary 0 0. 12 5 0. 25 0.5 Mi l es Sources : Esri , HERE , Garmin , USGS , lntermap , I NCREMENT P, N RCan , Esri 13 Ja pan , METI , Esri Ch i na (Hong Kong ), Esri Korea , Esri (Thai land), NGCC , (c) OpenStree t Map contr i butors , and the GIS User Community
■ MISOURI - m DEPARTMENT OF l!fl NATURAL RESOURCES Technical Analysis - Other Factors (New Madrid County) Second Factor: Emissions-related data Determine all nearby sources contributing to the violation Third Factor: Meteorological Data Nearby airport data used in modeling Fourth Factor: Geography/topography Consider any unusual terrain in area 14
■ MISOURI - m DEPARTMENT OF l!fl NATURAL RESOURCES Technical Analysis - Other Factors, cont’d (New Madrid County) Emissions data (New Madrid County) 2018 SO 2 Source ID Source Name Emissions (ton) 143-0004 New Madrid Power Plant 14,866 143-0008 Magnitude 7 Metals 1,772 143-0015 SRG Global Coatings, Inc. 0.03 143-0025 Heartland Asphalt Materials New Madrid 0.44 143-0062 Bunge North America Inc. Linda Elevator 0.32 143-0078 Nutrien, Inc. 0.01 143-0083 Southeast Missouri Crematory 0.01 143-0074 ADM Grain Company 0.003 143-0066 Riceland Food Inc. 0.003 15
Technical Analysis - Other Factors, cont’d (New Madrid County) Geography/Topography 16
MISOURI ■ - m DEPARTMENT OF l!fl NATURAL RESOURCES Technical Analysis - Other Factors, cont’d (New Madrid County) Fifth Factor: Jurisdictional Boundaries County boundary is easily identifiable Guidance allows for smaller boundaries based on five-factor analysis – e.g. Townships, ranges, rivers, highways, or geographical coordinates 17
Technical Analysis – Proposed Recommendation (New Madrid County) Nutrien Inc. Riceland Foo • ADM Grain • z CD :e :s: D) ~ anceRd a. 0 0 - C: :::::, '< Highway 431 county Highway 408 ty H • ""' NMPP Property Boundary • M7M Property Boundary • S02 Sources New Madrid County Proposed S02 Nonattainment Area Sources: Esri , HERE , Garmin , USGS , lntermap , INCREMENT P, NRCan , Esri 18 0 0. 15 0 .3 0.6 M il es Japan , METI , Esri China ( Hong Kong) , Esri Korea , Esri ( Thailand) , NGCC , (c) OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS User Community
Recommendation Summary (cont’d) Kentucky Missouri Shelby Mario Ra Sources: Esri, USGS, lnterma P , NRCan , Esri Esri Chi na (Hon John s"ori ' Pe Cass Henry Bates St Clair O'lmlUte Barton Dade Independence Jasper Jopli Douglas Newton / Ille HowelJ •'"• Barry Oregon Taney Ozark - cDonal / 'f;tJI c=J Iron County Proposed Attainment/Unclassifiable Area - New Madrid County Proposed Nonattainment Area nkl n 'c=J New Madrid County, Remainder - Proposed Attainment/Unclassifiable ~~~~ -.R lfuA'rie ~ 2 ~e ) 19 OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS User Community _. 00
■ MISOURI - m DEPARTMENT OF l!fl NATURAL RESOURCES Recommendation Summary Area Designation Affected Sources Area Boundary Recommendation Area encompassing the property boundaries of Nonattainment Magnitude 7 Metals these two facilities and New Madrid Power Plant Remainder of New Madrid Attainment/unclassifiable County Doe Run – Buick Resource Recycling Iron County Attainment/unclassifiable Facility 20
■ MISOURI - m DEPARTMENT OF l!fl NATURAL RESOURCES Timeline Mar. 26, 2020 • Public hearing before the commission Apr. 2, 2020 • Close of public comment period Apr. 29, 2020 • Propose for adoption by commission May. 1, 2020 • Submit recommendation to EPA Aug. 13, 2020 • EPA sends “120-day” letters to states Oct. 16, 2020 • States respond to “120-day” letters Dec. 31, 2020 • Final round of designations
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