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M Monsoon Asia Integrated A i I d Regional Studies g Hassan - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
M Monsoon Asia Integrated A i I d Regional Studies g Hassan - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
M Monsoon Asia Integrated A i I d Regional Studies g Hassan Virji International START Secretariat Key Role of Asia in Global Change Key Role of Asia in Global Change Identified by ICSU global change Identified by ICSU global change
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Key Role of Asia in Global Change Key Role of Asia in Global Change
Identified by ICSU global change
Identified by ICSU global change program as global choke point program as global choke point - Asian Asian program as global choke point program as global choke point Asian Asian change may alter Earth’s physical change may alter Earth’s physical and biochemical systems and biochemical systems
Next 25 years critical in moving to
Next 25 years critical in moving to y g y g transforming the energy & industrial transforming the energy & industrial system of the region. system of the region.
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What is distinctive about the What is distinctive about the region? region?
Climate
Climate – – society linkages society linkages Cli t f i k f d l t Cli t f i k f d l t
Climate as a source of risk for development
Climate as a source of risk for development goals goals C l k t th Mill i d l t C l k t th Mill i d l t
Can look at the Millennium development
Can look at the Millennium development goals, for example goals, for example R id t iti R id t iti
Rapid transitions
Rapid transitions
Demographics
Demographics
Economic growth
Economic growth
Settlements and urbanization
Settlements and urbanization
Implications for development as a driver of
Implications for development as a driver of environmental change environmental change
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Urban corridor from Beijing to Tokyo via Pyongyang and Seoul. Source: F. C. Lo & Y. M. Yeung (eds.), Emerging World Cities in Pacific Asia
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Overarching Regional Research Questions
"- How do regional changes in, for example, land use, industrial practices, energy production, and urbanization alter regional atmospheric composition, the regional water cycle, and local ecosystem structure and function?
- How can such changes within a region or in combination
with those from other regions affect biogeochemical cycles with those from other regions affect biogeochemical cycles and physical aspects of climate on a global scale?
- How will the ensemble of global change, acting through
either direct effects or through altered feedbacks, lead to ff g f , further regional change in the biospheric life support system?”
1990 Bellagio Report
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Integrated Regional Studies of Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Studies of Monsoon Asia
- What region will be like in 50 years?
– Land use cover change/intensification
Land use cover change/intensification – Urbanization – Industrial practices – Energy production – Dam construction
- Consequences for the Earth System
– Biogeochemical cycles
– Physical climate system – Hydrological cycle
- Consequences for the region
– Land Transformation R i l At h i iti – Regional Atmospheric composition – Local eco-system structure and functioning – Marine and coastal ecosystems – Vulnerability assessment (food, water & health) Vulnerability assessment (food, water & health)
- Effects of direct/indirect feedbacks on biosphere/sustainability of the region
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LBA Framework The LBA Framework
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Human Human
Driving
Forces
R i l Human Responses: Regional Environmental Change Sustainable Development Strategies Biophysical y Impacts and Responses
Global Change
Conceptual framework for an integrated study of global change and sustainable development in Southeast Asia
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From: Fu Congbin
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ProMed: Project Mediterranean ProMed: Project Mediterranean
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The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) System Model (IGSM) The current IGSM System Model (IGSM) The current IGSM formulation includes
- an economic model for
analysis of greenhouse and formulation includes
- an economic model for
analysis of greenhouse and y g aerosol precursor gas emissions and mitigation proposals, y g aerosol precursor gas emissions and mitigation proposals,
- a coupled model of
atmospheric chemistry and climate, and
- a coupled model of
atmospheric chemistry and climate, and
- models of terrestrial
ecosystems.
- models of terrestrial
ecosystems. All of these models are global but with appropriate levels of regional detail. All of these models are global but with appropriate levels of regional detail. g
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Upstream Aerosols Root drivers (population, consumption) Upstream linkages, or drivers Land use/cover Change & Ag. Intensification GHG emissions Global climate and emissions Development Monsoon system Water G BGC pathways Monsoon system Downstream linkages or effects Water Hazards effects Hazards
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POPULATION, CONSUMPTION, URBANIZATION, INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMATION INSTITUTIONS
DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS
INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMATION, INSTITUTIONS
LAND (COVER CHANGE 1, 2 1, 2 1, 2 2 1
GHG EMISSIONS
LAND (COVER, CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION
AEROSOLS
1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1, 2 1 ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND AIR QUALITY WATER(QUANTITY, QUALITY AND USE); CATCHMENT HYDROLOGY 1 2 1, 2 5 5 2
ECOSYSTEMS AND BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES
QUALITY HYDROLOGY 1, 2 2 1, 2 5 5
GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM (i l di MONSOON SYSTEM
1, 2 5 1, 2
SYSTEM (including Oceans)
(Including seas and coastal zones; extreme events and hazards)
3 3 4 5
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
INTEGRATED ASSESSMENTS, MITIGATION and ADAPTATION STRATEGIES 5 5
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Schematic representation of the system forcings and responses, and how they might be investigated within thematic components of Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Studies
- KEY for the numbers on the figure (Processes and potential
relation to ESSP programs): 1 S f ( f i / G ) 1: Land Surface Processes (Land Transformation/IGBP) 2: Atmospheric Processes and Air Quality (ILEAPS and IGAC/IGBP) IGAC/IGBP) 3. Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions (SOLAS/IGBP) {NOT TO BE
ADDRESED IN MAIRS??} ADDRESED IN MAIRS??}
4. Climate and Water Cycle (GEWEX, CLIVAR/WCRP; PAGES/IGBP and GWSP/ESSP) PAGES/IGBP and GWSP/ESSP) 5. Risk and Vulnerability Assessments; Mitigation; Adaptation (ESSP) ( )
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Biodiversity and Ecosystem Change Change
- What are the consequences of variability and change in climate for
What are the consequences of variability and change in climate for biodiversity in natural thru to intensively managed terrestrial and biodiversity in natural thru to intensively managed terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems? aquatic ecosystems?
- Changes in timing of monsoon; Extreme events; ENSO intensity,
Changes in timing of monsoon; Extreme events; ENSO intensity, frequency; Agro and Urban ecosystems frequency; Agro and Urban ecosystems frequency; Agro and Urban ecosystems frequency; Agro and Urban ecosystems
- How resilient are the ecosystems of Monsoon Asia to different
How resilient are the ecosystems of Monsoon Asia to different intensities and forms of use? intensities and forms of use?
- What are the consequences of changes in biodiversity (losses and
What are the consequences of changes in biodiversity (losses and biological invasions) for ecosystem functions? biological invasions) for ecosystem functions?
- How much redundancy is enough?
How much redundancy is enough?
- How can conservation of biodiversity be incorporated into
How can conservation of biodiversity be incorporated into de elopment strategies of transitional economies? de elopment strategies of transitional economies? development strategies of transitional economies? development strategies of transitional economies?
- What are the most critical drivers of changes in biodiversity?
What are the most critical drivers of changes in biodiversity?
- Does loss of biodiversity from the Asian Monsoon region have any
Does loss of biodiversity from the Asian Monsoon region have any
- Does loss of biodiversity from the Asian Monsoon region have any
Does loss of biodiversity from the Asian Monsoon region have any significant consequences for the resilience of the Earth System ? significant consequences for the resilience of the Earth System ?
- Synthesis/integration; observation coordination;
Synthesis/integration; observation coordination;
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Proposed Membership for MAIRS Steering Group
MAIRS SG TEA SEA SAS
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MAIRS Bangkok meeting March 2003 Proposed IPO in CAS Proposed IPO in CAS # approved by ESSP in June; # Funding approved by President of CAS # Funding approved by President of CAS # Call for application of Director of IPO shortly shortly
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