South American Monsoon Sensitivity to External Forcings Rebecca - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

South American Monsoon Sensitivity to External Forcings Rebecca Orrison PhD student Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at Albany; SUNY August 8 th NEPARS REU lightning talk

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South American Monsoon System Intertropicae Convergence Zone South Ateantic Convergence Zone SAMS Subtropicae High Chaco Low Adapted from 850 hPa Noveeeo et ae., 2016 wind feed

I T C Z ● How can we learn about the dynamics of this S A M S system? S A C Z S H C L ● How do we contextualize current and future changes in the system? Adapted from 850 hPa Noveeeo et ae., 2016 wind feed

I T C Z ● How can we learn about the dynamics of this S A M S system? S A C Z S H C L → climate models Adapted from 850 hPa Noveeeo et ae., 2016 wind feed

NASA

Precipitation [CESM-LME; fuee forcing]

I T C Z ● How do we contextualize current and future S A M S changes in the system? S A C Z S H C L → paleoclimatic data Adapted from 850 hPa Noveeeo et ae., 2016 wind feed

Proxy Records Paraíso Cave Paeestina Cave Diva de Maura Cave, Torrinha Cave, Lapa Doce Cave Pau d’Alho Pau d’Alho Laguna Cave, Curupira Cave, Curupira Pumacocha Cave Cave S ão Bernardo Cave, São Huagapo Cave Matheus Cave Queeccaya Ice Cap Jaraguá Cave Jaraguá Cave T amborie Cave Parque Nacionae T orotoro Cristae Cave

Summary: Understanding the system contextuaeized by the past... + = …we eook to the future

Thank you! Questions?

Waveeet Anaeysis Fuee SAM domain Pau D’Aeho + Curupira (~15S, ~56W ) Noveeeo et ae., 2016

Last Millennium Ensemble details: ► Greenhouse gases: transient 850 – 2005 [3] (Schmidt et al. 2011) ► Land cover/land use: transient 850 – 2005 [3] (Pongratz et al. 2008, Hurtt et al. 2011) ► Ozone-Aerosols: transient 1850 – 2005 [2] (Schmidt et al. 2011) ► Solar Insolation: transient 850 – 2005 [4] (Vieira et al. 2011) ► Orbital: transient 850 – 2005 [3] (Berger 1978) ► Volcanic eruptions: transient 850 – 2005 [5] (Gao et al., 2008) ► Unless noted, other forcings in single forced runs set to fixed 850 values, ozone-aerosols fixed at 1850 levels. No volcanic forcing outside volcanic forced run.