Low Carbon Options and GHG Abatement Potential in Agriculture and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Low Carbon Options and GHG Abatement Potential in Agriculture and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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21 st AIM International Workshop National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan 13-14 November 2015 Low Carbon Options and GHG Abatement Potential in Agriculture and Energy using Sectors in Nepal Ram M. Shrestha and Bijay B.

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Low Carbon Options and GHG Abatement Potential in Agriculture and Energy using Sectors in Nepal

Ram M. Shrestha and Bijay B. Pradhan

Asian Institute of Technology and Management Lalitpur, Nepal

1

21st AIM International Workshop National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan 13-14 November 2015

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SLIDE 2

Sectoral GHG emission mix in 2010

2

  • Agriculture has the highest share in the national GHG emission in 2010
  • Energy using activities account for 18.1%

Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion Total: 32 MtCO2e

Sources: IEA (2012) Energy 18.1% Industrial processes 0.3% Agriculture 70.6% Waste 8.8% Others 2.2%

Sectoral GHG emission

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SLIDE 3

Methodology

  • AFOLU-B model for agriculture sector
  • AIM/Enduse for energy using sector

3 Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

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SLIDE 4

Scenarios considered

  • BAU, no-regret and four GHG emission tax scenarios with

tax rates of

  • 10 USD/tCO2e (CT10)
  • 100 USD/tCO2e (CT100)
  • 300 USD/tCO2e (CT300)
  • 500 USD/tCO2e (CT500)

4 Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

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SLIDE 5

GHG Mitigation from Agriculture Sector

5

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SLIDE 6

Growth in Livestock during 1999-2013

  • AAGR
  • Cattle : 0.2%
  • Buffalo: 2.8%

100 200 300 400 500 600 10 20 30 40 50 60 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Duck (thousands) Fowl (millions) Fowl Duck

  • AAGR
  • Fowl: 7.7%
  • Duck: -0.6%

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Sheep, Pig (000’) Cattle, buffaloes, goat (000’) Cattle Buffaloes Goat Sheep Pigs

Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

  • Goat: 3.5%.
  • Pig: 2.2%
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SLIDE 7

Growth in cultivated area during 1999-2013

7 Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Area (000' hectares) Rice Others

  • AAGR
  • Rice: 0.2%
  • Other crops: 1.1%
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SLIDE 8

GHG emission from agriculture during 2010- 2050 in BAU case

  • Total emission increases at CAGR of 1.4%.
  • CH4 Emission from rice cultivation remains almost constant
  • During 2010-2050, emission increase by
  • CH4 from enteric fermentation: 70%
  • CH4 from manure management: 80%
  • N2O from manure management: 110%
  • N2O form agricultural soils: 90%

Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 GHG mitigation (MtCO2e)

Agricultural soil management (N2O) Rice cultivation (CH4) Manure management (N2O) Manure management (CH4) Enteric fermentation (CH4)

24.2 28.7 31.2 34.1 41.4

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Structure of GHG emission in agriculture in BAU case

  • Enteric fermentation and agri. soil management- the two largest contributors
  • Emission related to agricultural soil management increases from 28% to 31%
  • Share of N2O from manure management increases from 13% to 16%.
  • Share of CH4 from rice production decreases from 12% to 7%.

Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

Enteric fermentation (CH4) 45% Manure management (CH4) 2% Manure management (N2O) 13% Rice cultivation (CH4) 12% Agricultural soil management (N2O) 28%

2010

Enteric fermentation (CH4) 44% Manure management (CH4) 2% Manure management (N2O) 16% Rice cultivation (CH4) 7% Agricultural soil management (N2O) 31%

2050

Total: 24.2 MtCO2e Total: 41.4 MtCO2e

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SLIDE 10

The set of mitigation options varies with the emission tax rate

10 CT0 CT10 CT100 CT300 CT500

EF1: High genetic merit (CH4) EF2: Replacement of roughage with concentrates (CH4) MM1: Daily spread of manure (CH4) MM2: Dome digester, cooking fuel and light (CH4) RC1: Midseason drainage (CH4) RC2: Off-season straw (CH4) ASM1:High efficiency fertilizer application (N2O) ASM2: Tillage and residue management (N2O) ASM3: Slow-release fertilizer (N2O)

*EF - Enteric fermentation, MM- Manure management RC -Rice cultivation, ASM- Agricultural soil management Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

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SLIDE 11

GHG mitigation potential of no-regret

  • ptions during 2020-2050

11 Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

  • Mitigation potential nearly doubled during the period
  • Enteric fermentation has the highest mitigation potential
  • Shares in agriculture sector GHG mitigation in 2050
  • Live stock management: 97%; Rice cultivation: 3%

(Enteric fermentation: 92%; Manure management: 5%)

2 4 6 8 10 12 2020 2030 2040 2050 Mitigation potential (MtCO2eq/yr) RC: Incorporation of rice straw (CH4) MM: Dome digester, cooking fuel and light (CH4) EF: Replacement of roughage with concentrates (CH4)

7.1 8.5 10.5 5.9

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GHG mitigation potential at $10/tCO2e

12 Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

4 8 12 16 2020 2030 2040 2050 Mitigation potential (MtCO2eq/yr)

ASM2: Tillage and residue management (N2O) ASM1:High efficiency fertilizer application (N2O) RC2: Midseason drainage (CH4) MM1: Dome digester, cooking fuel and light (CH4) EF2: High genetic merit (CH4) EF1: Replacement of roughage with concentrates (CH4)

8.4 10.2 12.4

  • Mitigation potential is highest in enteric fermentation.
  • In 2050, share in total agriculture sector mitigation
  • Enteric fermentation: 79%; Rice cultivation:5%
  • Agricultural soil management: 11%; Manure management: 4%

7.1

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SLIDE 13

Would GHG mitigation potential increase significantly at $100, $300, $500 per tCO2e?

13 Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

  • Overall, there is relatively small increase in abatement potential at high tax rates.

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 CT100 CT300 CT500

ASM3: Slow-release fertilizer (N2O) ASM2: Tillage and residue management (N2O) ASM1:High efficiency fertilizer application (N2O) RC2: Midseason drainage (CH4) MM1: Dome digester, cooking fuel and light (CH4) MM2: Daily spread of manure (CH4) EF2: High genetic merit (CH4) EF1: Replacement of roughage with concentrates (CH4)

8.5 10.2 12.3 14.9 8.8 10.4 12.5 15.4 9.1 10.9 13.2 16.2

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GHG mitigation options and potential in 2020

14 Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 CT0 CT10 CT100 CT300 CT500 2020 GHG mitigation (MtCO2e)

ASM3: Slow-release fertilizer (N2O) ASM2: Tillage and residue management (N2O) ASM1:High efficiency fertilizer application (N2O) RC1: Off-season straw (CH4) RC2: Midseason drainage (CH4) MM1: Dome digester, cooking fuel and light (CH4) MM2: Daily spread of manure (CH4) EF2: High genetic merit (CH4) EF1: Replacement of roughage with concentrates (CH4)

7.1 8.6 9.1 8.7

7.1 8.6 9.1 8.7 5.9

  • Total mitigation potential does not change significantly after CT100
  • Highest share of EF in mitigation; its share decreases with the

emission tax.

  • No change in RC related mitigation after CT10.
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SLIDE 15

GHG mitigation options and potential in 2030

15 Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

2 4 6 8 10 12 CT0 CT10 CT100 CT300 CT500 2030 GHG mitigation (MtCO2e)

ASM3: Slow-release fertilizer (N2O) ASM2: Tillage and residue management (N2O) ASM1:High efficiency fertilizer application (N2O) RC1: Off-season straw (CH4) RC2: Midseason drainage (CH4) MM1: Dome digester, cooking fuel and light (CH4) MM2: Daily spread of manure (CH4) EF2: High genetic merit (CH4) EF1: Replacement of roughage with concentrates (CH4)

7.1 8.6 9.1

8.7 8.4 10.2 10.9 10.4 7.1

  • The mix of mitigation options varies with the tax rate.
  • At a particular tax rate, the mix remains unchanged during 2020-2050.
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SLIDE 16

GHG mitigation options and potential in 2050

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  • Relatively small change in mitigation above the tax rate of $100/tCO2e.
  • In 2050, GHG emissions decrease by
  • 25% with No-regret options
  • 30% with CT10
  • 36% with CT100, 37% in CT300 and 39% in CT500

Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 CT0 CT10 CT100 CT300 CT500 2050 GHG mitigation (MtCO2e)

ASM3: Slow-release fertilizer (N2O) ASM2: Tillage and residue management (N2O) ASM1:High efficiency fertilizer application (N2O) RC1: Off-season straw (CH4) RC2: Midseason drainage (CH4) MM1: Dome digester, cooking fuel and light (CH4) MM2: Daily spread of manure (CH4) EF2: High genetic merit (CH4) EF1: Replacement of roughage with concentrates (CH4) 7.1 8.6 9.1 8.7

12.4 14.9 16.2 15.2 10.5

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SLIDE 17

Emission Mitigation from energy using sectors

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Economic and demographic growth considerations

  • Medium variant of population projection (36% higher

population by 2050 as compared to 2010)

  • .Share of urban population to increase from 17% to 36%

during 2010-2050

  • GDP growth rate: 4% (2010-2015) and 5.56% (2015-2050)

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SLIDE 19

Sectoral Shares in Fossil Fuel Consumption in BAU scenario

19 Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

1.3 Mtoe 8 Mtoe

  • Fossil fuel consumption increases by almost 5 times in 2050.
  • Transport and industry – the two highest fossil fuel consuming sectors &

their shares would be increasing.

Transport 46% Residential 9% Industrial 30% Power 1% Commercial 7% Agriculture 7%

2010

Transport 53% Residential 5% Industrial 34% Commercial 5% Agriculture 3%

2050

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GHG Emission in Different Scenarios

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  • Emission increases from 4.3 MtCO2e in 2010 to 25.9 MtCO2e in 2050 in the BAU case.
  • Cumulative GHG reduction during 2010-2050 in CT0, CT10 would be 10.8%, 11.1%,

respectively

  • At CT100, CT300 and CT500 it would be 23.3%, 44.1% and 53.9% respectively
  •  low emission tax elasticity of GHG reduction.

Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

5 10 15 20 25 30 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 BAU CT0 CT10 CT100 CT300 CT500 31.7% 53.5% 65.8% 12.7%

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SLIDE 21

21 Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

Sectoral Shares in GHG mitigation by no- regret options in 2030 and 2050

Residential 19% Industrial 68% Commercial 12% Agriculture 1%

2050

Total: 3.3 MtCO2e

Residential 14% Industrial 72% Commercial 11% Agriculture 3%

2030

Total: 1.2 MtCO2e

  • Industrial sector ranks the first in no-regret mitigation, then

residential and commercial.

  • Shares of industrial and agriculture sector decrease by 2050
  • Shares of residential and commercial sectors increase by 2050
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SLIDE 22

22 Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

Industrial and Residential sectors - the main abatement options at $10/tCO2e

Residential 19% Industrial 66% Commercial 14% Agriculture 1%

2050

Total: 3.4 MtCO2e

Residential 18% Industrial 65% Commercial 14% Agriculture 3%

2030

Total: 1.3 MtCO2e

  • Sectoral ranking in GHG mitigation similar as in CT0.
  • Share of industrial and agricultural sector decreases in 2050
  • Share of residential and commercial increases in 2050
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SLIDE 23

23 Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

Industrial and Residential sectors - the main abatement options at $100/tCO2e

Residential 8% Industrial 85% Commercial 6% Agriculture 1%

2050

Total: 8.1 MtCO2e

Residential 10% Industrial 80% Commercial 8% Agriculture 2%

2030

Total: 2.3 MtCO2e

  • Sectoral rankings similar as in no-regret case
  • Increased share of industrial sector
  • Reduced shares of residential, commercial and agricultural

sectors

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SLIDE 24

Transport options not attractive till $100/MtCO2e

24 Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 CT0 CT10 CT100 CT300 CT500 CT0 CT10 CT100 CT300 CT500 2030 2050 Mitigation (MtCO2e) Agriculture Commercial Residential Transport Industrial

1.2 6.3 5.3 1.3 2.3 3.3 17.0 13.8 3.4 8.1

  • At CT0 sectoral shares in GHG mitigation in 2030:

Industrial: 72%; Residential: 14%; Commercial: 12%; Agriculture: 3%

  • At CT500, in 2030, share in mitigation from

Transport : 54%, Industrial: 37%; Residential: 4%; Commercial: 3%; Agriculture: 2%

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25 Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion Emission tax ($/tCO2e) CT0 CT10 CT100 CT300 CT500 Cost- effective

  • ptions

Biogas cooking Electric cooker EE LPG stove Solar water heater Energy efficient bulbs (CFL & LED)

Cost-effective mitigation options in residential and commercial sectors

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SLIDE 26

26 Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion Emission tax ($/tCO2e) CT0 CT10 CT100 CT300 CT500 Cost- effective

  • ptions

Electric motor (motive power) Improved fixed chimney brick kiln VSBK in brick industry Energy efficient coal boiler Biomass boiler CCS in cement industry

Cost-effective mitigation options in industrial sector

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27 Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion Emission tax ($/tCO2e) CT0 CT10 CT100 CT300 CT500 Cost- effective

  • ptions

Biofuel vehicles Electric vehicles Electric railway

Cost-effective mitigation options in transport sector

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28 Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

Total Emission from Agriculture and Energy using Sectors in BAU

  • Total emission would increase from 28.5 MtCO2e in 2030 to 67.3

MtCO2e in 2050.

  • Energy related emission increases by 5.1 times during 2010-2050
  • Agricultural emission increases by 70% during 2010-2050

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Emission (MtCO2e) Energy Agriculture

28.5 44.6 38.0 57.6 67.3 85% 82% 77% 72% 62%

15%

18% 23% 28% 38%

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SLIDE 29

29 Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

Mitigation potential from Agriculture and Energy using sectors in 2030

  • Mitigation potential ranges from 12% in CT0 to 26% in CT500 in 2030.

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 CT0 CT10 CT100 CT300 CT500 2030

Mitigation potential (MtCO2e)

Energy Agriculture

63%

37%

66%

34%

82%

18%

86%

14%

86%

14%

17.2 15.6 12.5 9.7 8.2

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SLIDE 30

30 Background Objectives Scenarios Analysis Conclusion

Mitigation potential from and Agriculture and Energy using sectors in 2050

  • Mitigation potential ranges from 20% in CT0 to 49% in CT500 in 2050.

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 CT0 CT10 CT100 CT300 CT500 2050

Mitigation potential (MtCO2e)

Energy Agriculture 49% 51% 52% 48% 65% 35% 79%

21%

76% 24% 33.2 29.1 23.0 15.8 13.7

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31 Background Objectives Scenarios Conclusion

Conclusion

  • The share of energy using sectors in total emissions is low (18%

in 2010) at present but increasing rapidly. By 2050, the share of energy using sectors will be 38%.

  • Agriculture and energy using sectors would emit a total of 44.6

MtCO2e in 2030 and 67.3 MtCO2e by 2050.

  • Mitigation potential ranges from 12% in CT0 to 26% in CT500 in

2030; it ranges from 20% in CT0 to 49% in CT500 in 2050.

  • Major no-regret mitigation options in agriculture
  • Enteric fermentation: Replacement of roughage with

concentrates

  • Manure management: Dome digester
  • Rice cultivation: Incorporation of rice straw
  • Major no-regret mitigation options in energy sector
  • Electric cooking
  • Solar water heater
  • Electric motors
  • Improved Fixed Chimney Brick Kiln

Conclusion Analysis

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Thank you

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