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Long-Term Performance of Stocks, Bonds, T-Bills and Inflation 1926 - - PDF document

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Long-Term Performance of Stocks, Bonds, T-Bills and Inflation 1926 - 2017 Presented by LLP A Registered Investment Advisor 559 E. Huisache Avenue San Antonio, TX 78212 www.martincapital.com Long Term Performance of Stocks, Bonds, T-Bills

  1. Long-Term Performance of Stocks, Bonds, T-Bills and Inflation 1926 - 2017 Presented by LLP A Registered Investment Advisor 559 E. Huisache Avenue San Antonio, TX 78212 www.martincapital.com

  2. Long Term Performance of Stocks, Bonds, T-Bills & Inflation 1926 - 2017* Non-Inflation Adjusted Percent of Original Account Value 1,000,000% 100,000% 100% Stocks 10,000% 100% Bonds 100% T-Bills 1,000% Inflation 100% 10% 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 100% Stocks 75% Stocks 50% Stocks 0% Stocks 0% Bonds 25% Bonds 50% Bonds 100% Bonds 100% T-Bills Inflation Non-Inflation Adjusted Returns Highest Annual Return 54.0% 41.3% 34.6% 40.4% 14.7% 18.2% Lowest Annual Return -43.3% -33.8% -24.3% -14.9% 0.0% -10.3% Arithmetic Avg. Annual Return 12.1% 10.5% 9.0% 6.0% 3.4% 3.0% Compound Avg. Annual Return 10.2% 9.5% 8.5% 5.5% 3.4% 2.9% Total Compound Return 735,083.9% 409,688.4% 174,131.6% 14,174.0% 1,979.4% 1,275.0% % Positive Years 73.9% 76.1% 79.3% 73.9% 97.8% 89.1% Inflation Adjusted Returns Highest Annual Return 53.4% 42.0% 31.3% 35.1% 12.6% Lowest Annual Return -37.4% -28.4% -20.7% -17.2% -15.1% Arithmetic Avg. Annual Return 9.0% 7.5% 6.0% 3.1% 0.5% Compound Avg. Annual Return 7.1% 6.4% 5.4% 2.6% 0.5% Total Compound Return 53,368.0% 29,702.8% 12,571.4% 938.1% 51.2% % Positive Years 69.6% 71.7% 71.7% 60.9% 58.7% Inflation Adjusted Percent of Original Account Value 100,000% 1999 2013 10,000% 100% Stocks 1972 1984 100% Bonds 1,000% 100% T-Bills 1928 1943 Time Measure 100% 10% 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 Page 1 * Source: Ibbotson and Associates Stocks: S&P 500 Total Return Bonds: 20 Year US Treasury Bonds T-Bills: 30 Day T-Bills

  3. Long Term Performance of Stocks & Bonds With Distributions: 1926 - 2017* Inflation Adjusted Returns Percent Total Return: Distribution Rate 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% Fixed % Fixed $ Fixed % Fixed $ Fixed % Fixed $ Fixed % Fixed $ 100% Stocks 53,368.0% 5,106.2% 30,137.8% 377.2% 6907.6% -59.0% -16,322.6% -96.7% -39,552.8% 75% Stocks & 25% Bonds 29,702.8% 2,801.9% 14,388.1% 166.0% -926.6% -77.1% -16,241.4% -98.2% -31,556.1% 50% Stocks & 50% Bonds 12,571.4% 1133.8% 3,115.2% 13.1% -6340.9% -90.3% -15,797.1% -99.2% -25,253.3% 100% Bonds 938.1% 1.1% -2,719.5% -90.7% -6377.1% -99.2% -10,034.7% -99.9% -13,692.2% 5% Distribution Rate (Fixed %) 700% 600% Total Return After Distribution 100% Stocks 500% 400% 75% Stocks 25% Bonds 300% 50% Stocks 200% 50% Bonds 100% Bonds 100% 0% -100% 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 10% Distribution Rate (Fixed %) 100% Total Return After Distribution 50% 100% Stocks 75% Stocks 25% Bonds 0% 50% Stocks 50% Bonds 100% Bonds -50% -100% 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 Page 2 * Source: Ibbotson and Associates Stocks: S&P 500 Total Return Bonds: 20 Year US Treasury Bonds T-Bills: 30 Day T-Bills

  4. Rolling 5 Year Holding Periods: 1926 - 2017* Inflation Adjusted Returns 0% Distribution Rate 100% 75% 100% Stocks 50% 75% Stocks 25% Bonds 25% 50% Stocks 50% Bonds 100% Bonds 0% 100% T-Bills -25% -50% Lowest Portfolio Value Average Portfolio Value Percent Positive Periods Change Change Distribution Rate 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% Fixed % Fixed $ Fixed % Fixed $ Fixed % Fixed $ Fixed % Fixed $ 100% Stocks Highest Portfolio Value Change 212.3% 175.2% 191.1% 141.7% 169.9% 111.5% 148.7% 84.4% 127.5% Lowest Portfolio Value Change -38.8% -46.0% -49.7% -52.6% -65.0% -58.5% -81.3% -63.8% -97.7% Average Portfolio Value Change 47.6% 30.0% 31.5% 14.2% 15.4% -0.1% -0.6% -12.8% -16.7% Percent Positive Periods 75.0% 69.3% 67.0% 58.0% 58.0% 51.1% 48.9% 33.0% 35.2% 75% Stocks & Highest Portfolio Value Change 158.7% 127.9% 139.6% 100.1% 120.6% 75.2% 101.5% 52.7% 82.5% 25% Bonds Lowest Portfolio Value Change -27.3% -36.0% -42.3% -43.8% -58.6% -50.8% -75.0% -57.1% -91.3% Average Portfolio Value Change 39.8% 23.1% 24.1% 8.1% 8.4% -5.4% -7.3% -17.5% -23.0% Percent Positive Periods 80.7% 64.8% 62.5% 53.4% 52.3% 46.6% 44.3% 21.6% 27.3% 50% Stocks & Highest Portfolio Value Change 120.1% 93.9% 103.5% 70.3% 87.3% 49.0% 71.1% 29.9% 54.9% 50% Bonds Lowest Portfolio Value Change -25.3% -34.2% -40.5% -42.2% -55.7% -49.4% -70.9% -55.9% -86.1% Average Portfolio Value Change 32.0% 16.3% 16.6% 2.1% 1.3% -10.6% -14.0% -22.1% -29.3% Percent Positive Periods 85.2% 67.0% 67.0% 47.7% 46.6% 28.4% 30.7% 11.4% 14.8% 100% Bonds Highest Portfolio Value Change 126.2% 99.3% 106.4% 75.1% 86.5% 53.2% 66.6% 33.6% 46.7% Lowest Portfolio Value Change -41.3% -48.3% -55.1% -54.6% -69.0% -60.2% -82.8% -65.3% -96.7% Average Portfolio Value Change 16.3% 2.5% 1.7% -10.0% -12.8% -21.2% -27.3% -31.3% -41.9% Percent Positive Periods 63.6% 47.7% 45.5% 31.8% 31.8% 13.6% 14.8% 3.4% 8.0% 100% T-Bills Highest Portfolio Value Change 49.8% 32.0% 35.7% 15.9% 21.5% 1.4% 7.4% -11.5% -6.8% Lowest Portfolio Value Change -26.9% -35.6% -39.9% -43.5% -55.4% -50.5% -71.0% -56.8% -86.5% Average Portfolio Value Change 3.0% -9.2% -10.9% -20.3% -24.7% -30.2% -38.6% -39.2% -52.5% Percent Positive Periods 59.1% 18.2% 15.9% 5.7% 5.7% 1.1% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% Page 3 * Source: Ibbotson and Associates Stocks: S&P 500 Total Return Bonds: 20 Year US Treasury Bonds T-Bills: 30 Day T-Bills

  5. Rolling 5 Year Holding Periods: 1926 - 2017* Nominal Returns Portfolio Value Change for Each Holding Period - 0% Distribution Rate 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% Stocks Total Return 100% Bonds 100% T-Bills 100% Inflation 50% 0% -50% 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Holding Period Ending Page 4 * Source: Ibbotson and Associates Stocks: S&P 500 Total Return Bonds: 20 Year US Treasury Bonds T-Bills: 30 Day T-Bills

  6. Rolling 10 Year Holding Periods: 1926 - 2017* Inflation Adjusted Returns 0% Distribution Rate 150% 125% 100% 100% Stocks 75% 75% Stocks 25% Bonds 50% 50% Stocks 50% Bonds 25% 100% Bonds 0% 100% T-Bills -25% -50% Lowest Portfolio Value Average Portfolio Value Percent Positive Periods Change Change Distribution Rate 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% Fixed % Fixed $ Fixed % Fixed $ Fixed % Fixed $ Fixed % Fixed $ 100% Stocks Highest Portfolio Value Change 417.7% 301.9% 357.3% 209.9% 297.0% 137.4% 236.7% 80.5% 176.4% Lowest Portfolio Value Change -32.2% -47.4% -64.5% -59.4% -112.6% -68.9% -160.6% -76.4% -208.6% Average Portfolio Value Change 116.1% 67.8% 72.5% 29.4% 28.8% -0.9% -14.8% -24.7% -58.4% Percent Positive Periods 88.0% 75.9% 74.7% 62.7% 55.4% 42.2% 38.6% 24.1% 24.1% 75% Stocks & Highest Portfolio Value Change 266.1% 184.2% 203.8% 119.2% 154.5% 67.9% 105.2% 27.7% 55.9% 25% Bonds Lowest Portfolio Value Change -28.3% -44.3% -62.2% -57.1% -108.9% -67.1% -155.6% -75.0% -202.2% Average Portfolio Value Change 94.0% 50.6% 52.9% 16.2% 11.7% -11.0% -29.4% -32.3% -70.6% Percent Positive Periods 88.0% 79.5% 78.3% 62.7% 50.6% 37.3% 31.3% 13.3% 15.7% 50% Stocks & Highest Portfolio Value Change 220.1% 148.5% 170.6% 91.6% 121.2% 46.8% 71.8% 11.6% 22.3% 50% Bonds Lowest Portfolio Value Change -28.0% -44.1% -62.1% -56.9% -106.9% -67.0% -152.1% -74.9% -197.3% Average Portfolio Value Change 73.5% 34.7% 34.7% 3.9% -4.1% -20.5% -42.9% -39.5% -81.7% Percent Positive Periods 89.2% 74.7% 69.9% 51.8% 49.4% 21.7% 20.5% 3.6% 4.8% 100% Bonds Highest Portfolio Value Change 189.4% 124.7% 143.9% 73.3% 98.4% 32.7% 52.9% 0.9% 7.4% Lowest Portfolio Value Change -42.3% -55.2% -71.5% -65.5% -107.8% -73.6% -157.5% -79.9% -220.9% Average Portfolio Value Change 35.0% 4.8% 0.8% -19.2% -33.3% -38.1% -67.5% -52.9% -101.6% Percent Positive Periods 60.2% 47.0% 43.4% 30.1% 25.3% 7.2% 9.6% 1.2% 1.2% 100% T-Bills Highest Portfolio Value Change 57.6% 22.3% 31.9% -5.7% 6.3% -27.7% -19.4% -45.1% -45.0% Lowest Portfolio Value Change -40.6% -53.9% -71.6% -64.4% -102.7% -72.8% -133.7% -79.3% -175.5% Average Portfolio Value Change 5.1% -18.4% -25.5% -37.1% -56.2% -51.8% -86.9% -63.3% -117.5% Percent Positive Periods 57.8% 13.3% 10.8% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Page 5 * Source: Ibbotson and Associates Stocks: S&P 500 Total Return Bonds: 20 Year US Treasury Bonds T-Bills: 30 Day T-Bills

  7. Rolling 10 Year Holding Periods: 1926 - 2017* Nominal Returns Portfolio Value Change for Each Holding Period - 0% Distribution Rate 600% 500% 400% 300% 100% Stocks Total Return 100% Bonds 100% T-Bills 200% Inflation 100% 0% -100% 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Holding Period Ending Page 6 * Source: Ibbotson and Associates Stocks: S&P 500 Total Return Bonds: 20 Year US Treasury Bonds T-Bills: 30 Day T-Bills

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