Long-range forecasting of the global warming alarm phenomenon: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Long-range forecasting of the global warming alarm phenomenon: Predictions from structured analogies

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Kesten C. Green

Graduate School of Business, University of South Australia

• J. Scott Armstrong

The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

International Symposium on Forecasting 2011, Prague 9:30−10:30AM, 27 June, University of Economics, RB213

21 June, 2011, AGW analogies v16

Global warming alarm is anti-scientific

Alarming forecasts of warming for public policy decision makers come from

• processes that violate the scientific method, and are
• promoted by a political movement*, that tries to
• suppress scientific and other opposition.

We use a method developed for forecasting outcomes of conflicts among interest groups to make forecasts about the movement.

*See next slide

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“Climate science mired in politics”

Declaring that “science is politics in climate change; climate science is politics” , Union Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh on Wednesday urged Indian scientists to undertake more studies and publish them vigorously to prevent India and

• ther developing countries from being “led by our noses by

Western (climate) scientists who have less of a scientific agenda and more of a political agenda” . The minister’s remarks evoked a loud applause from over 100 Indian scientists who had gathered on the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) premises in Ahmedabad… Indian Express, 9 June 2011

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/Climate-science-mired-in-politics--Jairam/801199/

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Analogies in forecasting

Analogies are commonly used

• in an unstructured manner

, and

• after making a forecast in order to support the

forecast. Analogies do contain useful information and

• can aid forecasts
• if identified and analyzed by experts…
• in a structured and unbiased manner

.

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Structured analogies proposed at the ISF in June 2003 and it was published in mid-2007 in the IJF

Google search for “structured analogies” 2005, February 120 2008, February 500 2010, March 3,000 2011, June 4,040 Google Scholar cites IJF paper: June 2011= 25 “Structured analogies” & forecasting = 70

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Validation of structured analogies method (SA)

Findings from forecasts for 8 diverse conflicts: Method % accurate Guessing 28 Experts unaided judgment 32 (106) SA (2 or more analogies) 56 (97)

Source: Green & Armstrong (2007). Structured analogies for

• forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 23, 365-376.

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Structured analogies applications

• Recommended as a tool for improving thinking quality

(Crittenden & Woodside 2007)

• Design of sales promotion campaigns

Providing decision makers with analogies improves creativity (Althuizen & Wierenga 2008)

• Forecasting the economic impact of new policies

(Savio & Nikolopoulos 2009)

• Forecasting effectiveness of policy implementation strategies: working

with semi-experts

SA with semi-experts not better than UJ (Savio & Nikolopoulos 2009)

• Time series forecasts of a chemical process

SA better than Neural Nets (Xue & Zhu 2010)

• Forecasting the effectiveness of policy implementation strategies

SA better than UJ (Savio & Nikolopoulos 2010)

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Structured analogies procedure for global warming alarmism

• 1. Identify possible analogies:

Suggestions from experts with different views (invited alarmists). Literature review (e.g. Kabat 2009; Booker & North 2007).

• 2. Screen for similarity:

Meet criteria? Outcomes known?

• 3. Code outcomes of analogous situations
• 4. Forecast target outcomes:

Obtain forecasts by using predetermined rule to select outcomes (e.g., use the mode of the analogy outcomes).

Criteria for selecting analogies to the dangerous manmade global warming alarm

• 1. Based on forecasts of material catastrophe arising

from effects of human activity on the physical environment

• 2. Endorsed by scientists, politicians, and media
• 3. Accompanied by calls for strong action

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Our statement of the problem

“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other

• rganizations and individuals have warned that unless

manmade emissions of carbon dioxide are reduced substantially, temperatures will increase and people and the natural world will suffer serious harm. Some people believe it is already too late to avoid some of that harm. Have there been other situations that involved widespread alarm over predictions of serious harm that could

• nly be averted at considerable cost? We are particularly

interested in alarms endorsed by experts and accepted as serious by relevant authorities. ”

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An early forecast*: The global warming movement will wither

“Given the history of such environmental scares—

• ver all of human history—my guess is that

global warming is likely to be simply another transient concern, barely worthy of consideration ten years from now… ” (Simon 1996, p.266).

*Based on unaided judgment, but supported by analogies.

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Progress on indentifying analogies

Began search on 25 January 2009,… is still in process. T

• date, we have a list of 71 proposed analogies…
• f these, we judged 26 to be relevant.

Information on the analogies is available at publicpolicyforecasting.com.

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Assess similarity

• Initial assessments by Green and Armstrong
• Independent assessments will be sought from

experts

• Contact Kesten Green at kesten@me.com to

participate

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Relevant analogies

T

• date, we have tentatively identified 26 relevant analogies.

Six examples:

• DDT and cancer (Silent Spring) 1962
• Electromagnetic fields and Childhood Cancer 1979
• Acid Rain in the U.S. 1974
• Uncontrolled reproduction and degeneration (Eugenics) 1883
• Population growth and famine (Club of Rome) 1968
• Natural resource shortages and economic collapse

(Ehrlich & Ehrlich 1974)

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List of the 26 relevant analogies

Population growth and famine (Malthus) 1798 Timber famine economic threat 1865 Uncontrolled reproduction and degeneration (Eugenics) 1883 Lead in petrol and brain and organ damage 1928 Soil erosion agricultural production threat 1934 Asbestos and lung disease 1939 Fluoride in drinking water health effects 1945 DDT and cancer 1962 Population growth and famine (Ehrlich) 1968 Global cooling; through to 1975 1970 Supersonic airliners, the ozone hole, and skin cancer , etc. 1970 Environmental tobacco smoke health effects 1971 Population growth and famine (Meadows) 1972 Industrial production and acid rain 1974 Organophosphate pesticide poisoning 1976 Electrical wiring and cancer , etc. 1979 CFCs, the ozone hole, and skin cancer , etc. 1985 Listeria in cheese 1985 Radon in homes and lung cancer 1985 Salmonella in eggs 1988 Environmental toxins and breast cancer 1990 Mad cow disease (BSE) 1996 Dioxin in Belgian poultry 1999 Mercury in fish effect on nervous system development 2004 Mercury in childhood inoculations and autism 2005 Cell phone towers and cancer , etc. 2008

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Thumbnail sketches

• Prepare descriptions of about one page for each

analogous situation.

• Obtain peer review by experts to improve
• bjectivity, accuracy, and clarity.
• This is process is still underway
• Descriptions of 9 of the analogies are posted at

publicpolicyforecasting.com

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The sketching process: Mercury in fish analogy

Date: 2004/2005 (Environmental Protection Agency) Forecast of impending disaster: Babies born with brain and nervous system damage Forecasting method: Extrapolation to a near-zero dose of a genuine effect from a large dose Actions called for: Pregnant women and others to avoid fish Regulations to reduce mercury emissions Forecast endorsements and challenges: Government agencies: “agency warns about danger of…” 10 million hits Scientists: “scientist warns about danger of…” 2 million hits Media: mercury in fish in Google News 618 hits Blog search 4.7 million; Google search 66 million Outcomes of the conflict $11bn p.a. cost of EPA regulation of electricity generators; consumer fish avoidance

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Alarming forecasts unscientific

So far , none of the analogous alarms were based on scientific forecasts; they were based on experts’ unaided judgments in the form of: n

• 1. Unrealistic mathematical models:

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• 2. Extrapolating an effect from a large dose to an alarmingly

widespread effect at near-zero dose: 7

• 3. Extrapolating that a weak effect might become important
• ver time or for a large population: 16

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How accurate were the alarming forecasts?

Preliminary coding revealed of the forecasts made in the 26 analogous situations:  categorically wrong 19  wrong in degree 7  accurate

Government role

Among the 26 analogous situations, government intervention …was called for in 25 (96%).

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Government policies adopted

Among the 25 analogous situations that involved calls for intervention, government policies were implemented in 23.

Government actions involved:

Increased government taxes Increased government spending Restricting individual liberties

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Did government intervention help?

Among the 23 analogous situations in which policies were implemented: n

Harm was caused 20 Policies were ineffective/uncertain 3 Policies were effective

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Forecasts from the use of structured analogies

Likelihood of:

• alarming forecasts coming true:

~0%

• government action being harmful: 87%

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Findings from global warming analogies study presented in testimony to US Congress: March 31, 2011 The report, “Research on Forecasting for the Manmade Global Warming Alarm” was widely discussed after the hearings: 22 blogs 58 web sites 2 mass media (Krugman & Armstrong in NYT)

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Impressions from analogies

• The alarm rate seems to be increasing over time
• Alarms tend to lose media attention rather than

become publicly discredited

• Belief in alarms can persist indefinitely

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Conclusions about the global warming alarm movement

We predict that the global warming alarm movement will follow the same path as those traced out by the 26 analogies:

• 1. The alarming forecasts will be seen to be unreliable.
• 2. The imposition of costs will be unpopular

.

• 3. Governments will avoid or cheat on agreements in order

to reduce costs.

• 4. Government actions will nevertheless continue to cause

widespread harm.

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Can the damage be undone?

Questions to address via analogies:

• 1. Are government agencies and programs

eliminated if they cause net harm?

• 2. If so, under what conditions?

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Alarms based on bad forecasting are a common social phenomenon

“As soon as one predicted disaster doesn't occur , the doomsayers skip to another ... why don't [they] see that, in the aggregate, things are getting better? Why do they always think we're at a turning point—or at the end of the road?” Julian Simon, in Tierney (1990) NYT

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An earlier lament on the politics

• f alarms

“On what principle is it that when we see nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?”

Thomas Babington Macaulay, 1830

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The working paper and analogy list are available

at publicpolicyforecasting.com

“Effects of the global warming alarm: A forecasting project using the structured analogies method” Green and Armstrong (2011)

We welcome your suggestions and analogy codings. kesten@me.com

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References Althuizen, Niek A.P. and Wierenga, Berend, The Value of Analogical Reasoning for the Design of Creative Sales Promotion Campaigns: A Case-Based Reasoning Approach (December 2008, 02). ERIM Report Series Reference No. ERS-2008-006-MKT. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1333466 Crittenden & Woodside (2007). Building Skills in Thinking: Toward a Pedagogy in Metathinking. Journal of education for business, 83(1), 37-43. Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts. Energy and Environment, 18, 997-1021. Savio, N. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2009). Forecasting the economic impact of new policies. Foresight, 11 (2), 7-18. Savio, N. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2009). Forecasting the effectiveness of policy implementation strategies: working with semi-experts. Foresight, 11 (6), 86-93. Savio, N. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2010). Forecasting the effectiveness of policy implementation strategies. International Journal of Public Administration, 33(2), 88-97. Simon, J. L. (1996). The ultimate resource, 2. Princeton: Princeton, NJ. Tierney, J. (1990). Betting on the planet. New York Times Magazine, 2 December, pp 52-81. Xue, H-D. & Zhu, Q-X. (2010). Time Series Prediction Algorithm Based on Structured Analogy. Computer Engineering, 36(1), 211-214. http://www.ecice06.com/CN/article/downloadArticleFile.do?attachType=PDF&id=8788