Local economic effects of COVID-19 . Trust Tairawhiti . Brad - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Local economic effects of COVID-19 . Trust Tairawhiti . Brad Olsen Senior Economist June 2020 A U-shaped recovery This recovery will take time Infometrics Treasury BEFU 2020 GDP forecast comparison, annual running totals, 2009/10 $b
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Brad Olsen – Senior Economist June 2020
A U-shaped recovery
220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 Sep-19 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22 Sep-23
This recovery will take time
GDP forecast comparison, annual running totals, 2009/10 $b
Infometrics Treasury BEFU 2020
Job losses will rise
2 4 6 8 10 12 Sep-19 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22 Sep-23
How big is the labour market hit?
Unemployment rate forecasts, %, seasonally adjusted
Infometrics Treasury BEFU 2020
Spending hit
150 155 160 165 170 18 19 20 21 22 23
Private consumption, annual running totals, 2009/10 $b
COVID-19 pandemic Global Financial Crisis (rebased)
Tourism
1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Tourism might never be the same
Annual visitor arrivals
Total arrivals, Apr 20 fcast Total arrivals, Jan 20 fcast
Building (nationally)
4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Turning off the tap for residential development
Forecast comparison of year-ended work put in place, 2009/10 $m
Apr 20 forecast Jan 20 forecast
Gisborne faces a lower hit
present
Still moving, but not as much
20 40 60 80 100 120 1-Jan-20 21-Jan-20 10-Feb-20 1-Mar-20 21-Mar-20 10-Apr-20 30-Apr-20 20-May-20
Downturn in traffic
All traffic flows, index, 1 Jan 2020 = 100, 7-day moving average
Gisborne District New Zealand
Still moving, but not as much
20 40 60 80 100 120 1-Jan-20 21-Jan-20 10-Feb-20 1-Mar-20 21-Mar-20 10-Apr-20 30-Apr-20 20-May-20
Downturn in freight
Heavy traffic flows, index, 1 Jan 2020 = 100, 7-day moving average
Gisborne Region New Zealand
Food exports show strength
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 21-Feb 06-Mar 20-Mar 03-Apr 17-Apr 01-May 15-May
Annual % change, 3-week moving average Goods trade to the world
Total Dairy Forestry Fruit Meat Non-food manu Seafood
Forestry isn’t as flash
60 70 80 90 1 00 1 1 1 20 1 30 1 40 1 50 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 20
Wood prices show a short-term jump
PF Olsen Index
PF Olsen Index
Forestry isn’t as flash
0% 0% 1 0% 20% 30% 40% 07 08 09 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 20
Chinese construction investments slide
Investment in construction & installation engineering
Annual % change
Tourism
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Gisborne Region Taranaki Region Manawatu-Wanganui Region Hawke's Bay Region Auckland Region Wellington Region Canterbury Region New Zealand Tasman Region Waikato Region Southland Region Bay of Plenty Region Nelson Region Northland Region Marlborough Region West Coast Region Otago Region
Regional tourism employment, 2019
Share of total employment
GDP loss
$1.30 $0.57 $0.54
$0 $5
Health Care and Social Assistance Public Administration and Safety Education and Training Mining, Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Food Processing and Manufacturing Other Services Arts and Recreation Services Administrative and Support Services Financial and Insurance Services Information Media and Telecommunications Non-food Manufacturing Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Owner-Occupied Property Operation Accommodation and Food Services Unallocated Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Construction Retail and Wholesale Trade Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Change in 2021, $m
Employment loss
27
50
Education and Training Mining, Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Public Administration and Safety Health Care and Social Assistance Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Food Processing and Manufacturing Financial and Insurance Services Information Media and Telecommunications Arts and Recreation Services Other Services Administrative and Support Services Non-food Manufacturing Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Construction Transport, Postal and Warehousing Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Accommodation and Food Services Retail and Wholesale Trade
Filled led jobs, s, reduction tion in 2021 21
Māori Employment loss
Mining, Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Financial and Insurance Services Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Public Administration and Safety Information Media and Telecommunications Arts and Recreation Services Education and Training Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Other Services Non-food Manufacturing Health Care and Social Assistance Food Processing and Manufacturing Administrative and Support Services Construction Transport, Postal and Warehousing Retail and Wholesale Trade Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Accommodation and Food Services
Māori filled jobs, reduction in 2021
Earnings losses
$1.57
$0 $2 $4 Education and Training Mining, Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Health Care and Social Assistance Public Administration and Safety Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Food Processing and Manufacturing Arts and Recreation Services Financial and Insurance Services Information Media and Telecommunications Other Services Administrative and Support Services Non-food Manufacturing Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Accommodation and Food Services Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Transport, Postal and Warehousing Construction Retail and Wholesale Trade
$m, reduction in earnings by March 2021
Brad Olsen – Senior Economist brad.olsen@Infometrics.co.nz +64 21 253 5646