2017 Global Outlook - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2017 Global Outlook $&%!! '(
2017 Global Outlook
$&%!! '( )%$ &*
Disclaimer
+ , ++% $ $ ++ % +%- % + + $ ," ++. + ",% / , + +"%% %0 $$ ++% %0&. 1& + &- &- &- 2 %". %34 $ % % 0 , +$ %" %% . + %% $$ , + + $ " +% % & % % % " +%. "- + $ ++ 3, ++4 $ %.
5
Remain: 55.7% Leave: 44.3% Remain: 62.0% Leave: 38.0% Remain: 48.3% Leave: 51.7% Remain: 46.8% Leave: 53.2%
Euro Exposed To Political Risks
56+600,,,.%%/+.0+2017 January 7 # March 7 # 8 9 April : !% 3 %4
May !% 3% %4 June ; # July
September # October #< =&" > % ? # December
to EU
Export Reliance of Selected Countries/Regions to EU and UK (2015)
18.7% 17.2% 16.2% 15.6% 10.3% 9.5% 7.7% 4.6%
3.9% 3.1% 2.6% 3.1% 1.6% 1.4% 3.4% 1.2%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
USA HONG KONG CHINA INDIA ASEAN JAPAN CANADA AUSTRALIA
% Share Of Exports To
% Exports to EU % Exports to UK
56'3@%4
.?A$@5@1 2+, B
7
ASEAN Countries
Export Reliance of Selected Countries/Regions to EU and UK
y = 0.2385x - 0.005 R² = 0.8537
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Exports to UK Exports to EU
US Viet HK China India Canada PH Indon JP Thai Malay SG Lao Myan Aust Brunei
56&
#%
8
2+$#%B65C. 34 2+$#%65C.734
2+$5&+B65C. 34 2+$5&+65C?.:34
92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Index
Brexit Trump
Investors Seem To Shrug Off Trump’s Anti>trade, Anti>world Rhetoric
MSCI World Index
12
56&3994
($$ ( )*
13
56&3994
Equities
85 90 95 100 105 110 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Index
S&P 500
Brexit Trump 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Index
MSCI Europe
Brexit Trump 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Index
MSCI UK
Brexit Trump 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Index
Nikkei 225
Brexit Trump 90 95 100 105 110 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Index
STI
Brexit Trump 90 95 100 105 110 115 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Index
AS30
Brexit Trump
14
56&3994
Equities
85 90 95 100 105 110 115 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Index
MSCI AP-Jpn
Brexit Trump 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Index
Shanghai Comp
Brexit Trump 90 95 100 105 110 115 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Index
JCI
Brexit Trump 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Index
KLCI
Brexit Trump 90 95 100 105 110 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Index
SET
Brexit Trump 85 90 95 100 105 110 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Index
SENSEX
Brexit Trump
15
56&3994
Sovereign Credit
HYs Are Supported
85 90 95 100 105 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Index
DM Gov
Brexit Trump 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Index
US Gov
Brexit Trump 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Index
EZ Gov
Brexit Trump 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 0 5 101520253035404550556065 Index Global IG Corp Brexit Trump 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 0 5 101520253035404550556065 Index EM IG Corp Brexit Trump 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 0 5101520253035404550556065 Index Global HY Corp Brexit Trump 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 0 5101520253035404550556065 Index EM HY Corp Brexit Trump
16
Commodities
90 95 100 105 110 0 5 101520253035404550556065 Index
BCOM
Brexit Trump 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 0 5 101520253035404550556065 Index
WTI
Brexit Trump 90 95 100 105 110 0 5 101520253035404550556065 Index Aluminium Brexit Trump 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 0 5 101520253035404550556065 Index
Copper
Brexit Trump 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 0 5 101520253035404550556065 Index
Lumber
Brexit Trump 70 90 110 130 150 170 0 5 101520253035404550556065 Index
BDIY
Brexit Trump 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 0 5 101520253035404550556065 Index
Gold
Brexit Trump 80 90 100 110 120 130 0 5 101520253035404550556065 Index
Silver
Brexit Trump
Markets Getting Nervous
(:A
Trump's Tweet Company Down by Char count Each character costs &%&%, @$$+%- $- C.#%D Boeing $ 989,800,000 113 $8,759,292 %&2 %%$#"#< .5. %(2$%. .5.@. +&%2D GM $ 409,710,000 117 $3,501,795 %+5+&%2 Toyota $ 1,200,000,000 31 $38,709,677
You Should LOVE Donald Trump!
10 30
100 World China Germany Japan Mexico Vietnam Korea India Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Cambodia Brunei Singapore Hong Kong USD Billion
2000 2015
ASEAN Countries Didn’t Account Much of US Trade Deficit
US Balance of Trade (Goods)
18
56#'#3@94
>US$746 Bn
Much Smaller Sized One)
Total Nominal Exports (USD) Indexed For Selected ASEAN Economies
19
56#'#394
Brunei, 58.37 Indonesia, 130.69 Malaysia, 157.26 Philippines, 189.20 Singapore, 155.70 Thailand, 173.00 Vietnam, 389.67
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Index (Jan09=100) Brunei Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand
Manufacturing Smile Curve
20
5655-#$@+-77
Value-Added/Unit Time
R&D Design Procurement Production
LOGISTICS
Marketing Sales/Services Distribution
CONCEPT
Global Competition Area Competition
US Balance of Trade (Services)
21
262.2 85.2 68.6 59.6 54.0 33.3 27.4 20.3 15.3 14.9 14.0 12.8 9.6 9.4 7.6 6.3 4.7 4.3 3.3 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.4
50 100 150 200 250 300
Overall Asia & Pacific Europe Latin America and Other Western Hemisphere European Union China Canada Brazil Australia Japan United Kingdom Middle East Mexico Korea Singapore Africa Taiwan Other Asia & Pacific France Indonesia Hong Kong Malaysia New Zealand Thailand Italy Germany Philippines India
USD Billion 56#'#3@94
+US$262 Bn
Trump, Listen UP: US Is In A Better Shape Today, Not Worse!
Goods Services Overall 2000 (:?
Growth = .A 8.A ::. A 2015 ( ? ? (;
US Balance of Trade with the World
US Trade Bal (Svcs) with Singapore US Trade Bal (Svcs) with China
US Exporting High Value Added Services!
S/N Category USD Mn 1 Services: Singapore: TCI: Information 6,538 2 Svcs: Singapore: Intellectual Property Charges n.i.e. (IPC) 2,526 3 Svcs: Singapore: OB: PMC: Acctng, Auditing & Bookkeeping 2,343 4 Svcs: Singapore: IPC: Unaffiliated 2,258 5 Svcs: Singapore: IPC: Affiliated (AF) 2,240 6 Svcs: Singapore: OB: Research & Development 2,118 7 Svcs: Singapore: IPC: Industrial Processes 1,499 8 Svcs: Singapore: IPC: AF: US Aff Exp to Foreign Parent Grp 976 9 Svcs: Singapore: Government Goods & Services n.i.e. 563 10 Svcs: Singapore: OB: PMC: Advertising 460 11 Services: Singapore: TCI: Telecommunications 449 12 Services: Singapore: Maintenance & Repair n.i.e. 441 13 Services: Singapore: Travel incl Education 435 14 Svcs: Singapore: IPC: Computer Software 425 15 Svcs: Singapore: IPC: Other 306 16 Services: Singapore: Travel: Other Business & Personal 296 17 Svcs: Singapore: IPC: Trademarks 295 18 Services: Singapore: Financial 279 19 Services: Singapore: Insurance: Reinsurance 274 20 Svcs: Singapore: Other Business (OB) 252 S/N Category USD Mn 1 Services: China: Travel incl Education 23,522 2 Services: China: Travel: Other Business & Personal 12,331 3 Services: China: Travel: Education Related 11,141 4 Services: China: Intellectual Property Charges n.i.e. (IPC) 5,625 5 Services: China: IPC: Affiliated (AF) 3,416 6 Services: China: IPC: AF: US Parents Exp to Foreign Affil 3,369 7 Services: China: Financial 2,488 8 Services: China: IPC: Industrial Processes 2,418 9 Services: China: IPC: Unaffiliated 2,209 10 Services: China: OB: Technical, Trade Rel & Other Bus (TTR) 2,163 11 Services: China: Transport: Air: Passenger 1,630 12 Services: China: IPC: Trademarks 1,468 13 Services: China: Transport: Air 1,341 14 Services: China: Maintenance & Repair n.i.e. 1,184 15 Services: China: OB: TTR: Architectural & Engineering 1,126 16 Services: China: IPC: Computer Software 880 17 Services: China: OB: TTR: Operating Leasing 749 18 Services: China: Transport: Sea: Port 660 19 Services: China: IPC: Audio Visual & Related Products (AVR) 559 20 Services: China: IPC: AVR: Movies & Television Programming 529 42 Services: China: Telecommunications, Computer & Info (TCI)
43 Services: China: TCI: Computer
44 Services: China: OB: Professional & Mngt Consulting (PMC)
45 Services: China: OB: PMC: Bus & Mngt Consult & PR
46 Services: China: Other Business (OB)
47 Services: China: Transport: Sea
48 Services: China: Transport: Sea: Freight
49 Services: China: OB: Research & Development
41 Services: Singapore: Transport: Air: Passenger
42 Services: Singapore: Transport: Air
43 Svcs: Singapore: OB: TTR: Architectural & Engineering
44 Services: Singapore: Telecomm, Computer & Info (TCI)
45 Services: Singapore: Transport: Sea
46 Services: Singapore: Transport: Sea: Freight
47 Services: Singapore: Transport
48 Svcs: Singapore: OB: PMC: Bus & Mngt Consult & PR
49 Svcs: Singapore: OB: Professional & Mngt Consulting (PMC)
）； ）； ）； America is China’s Largest Exporting Partner（ （ （ （18%） ） ） ）
China’s Trade With US
来源6彭博社 3按年数据4
100 200 300 400 500 600 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 US$ Bil
中国从美国进口 中国出口到美国 +17.5% pa +12.0% pa
24
#E+$5 #E2+5
Capital Goods at Faster Rate
US Trade Deficits with China by Product Type (SITC 1>digit)
50,000 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 US$ Mil 制成品 机械 大宗商品 杂项制品
来源6#'#3按月数据4
+14.4% pa +18.0% pa +13.6% pa +8.6% pa 中 国 购 买 更 多 中 国 购 买 更 多 美 国 购 买 更 多 美 国 购 买 更 多
25
More Global Trade
US Nominal Imports From The World and China (US$)
26
20 40 60 80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % y/y World China
(; )%67.8A #67.A (: )%6.A #6.7A (? )%6(.:A #6.8A
56&394
4.7 5.6
3.9 1.7
2 4 6 8 10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
% y/y
After Years of Dovish Monetary Policies, US Inflation Is Back Up
US Inflation Rates
27
56&394
Global Financial Crisis
'$&
:.A .7A F 8.:A G(:
H % H ! 9
2 4 6 8 10 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 % y/y UK Germany Japan China US
Same Inflation Story For Other Major Economies
Inflation Rates Across Selected Economies
28
Global Financial Crisis
56&394
'$&
:.A .7A F 8.:A G(:
H % H ! 9
.(.8A .8( .8A .8( . 8A
In China
China’s CPI and PPI
29
56&394
( (8
( (
;
;
PPI YoY CPI YoY ##!'II #!!'II
100 150 200 250 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Bloomberg Commodity Index
BCOM Index 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
West Texas Intermediate Crude
USCRWTIC Index 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Aluminium
LMAHDS03 Comdty 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Copper
LMCADS03 Comdty
Higher Commodities Prices Recently
30
(?7A (;A (?A (8 A
56&3994
J7A J77A J::A J A
Slowdown in China’s Industries and Electricity Demand
China Electricity Production and Industrial Production (3MMA) YoY
56&3G94
( (: ( (
? (8 ( (8
:
8
;
8 '% !%3:@4 IIA
IIA !%II '%!%II
Wow!
China Satellite Manufacturing Index % y/y
34
10 20 30 40 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % y/y China Satellite Manufacturing Index Y/Y
56& 165$& %& ?-%#-$.""8-K +&
Indicator For SG NODX
China Satellite Manufacturing Index & Singapore Non>Oil Domestic Exports
35
10 20 30 40 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 NODX y/y Index China Satellite Manufacturing Index Singapore Non Oil Domestic Exports YoY (3mma)
56& 165$& %& ?-%#-$.""8-K +&
R² = 0.3368
10 20 30 40
10 20 30 40
CN Sat vs SG NODX 8(%&
CPI, 2.1 PPI, 5.5 RPI, 1.5
2 4 6 8 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % y/y
36Higher Consumer Prices Due To Higher Labour & Services Costs
Prices in China
56&
#@#5++&! '%2
'E 5+**
Singapore’s Economic Fate
%I$%(%"&"
37
At The Start, And Now, Domestic Sectors. ButI
Singapore’s Real GDP by Sectors
38 9.1 7.0 3.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.6 5.3 4.2 2.5 >5.2 1.6 0.0 6.1 0.2 1.5 1.0 2.2 2.6 0.7 1.6 1.1 0.6 1.9 0.4
2 4 6 8 10
F&I Infocomms Construction Mfg Other Svcs T&S W&R A&F Biz Svcs
% y/y 2014 2015 1-3Q2016
2015 Share 13% 4% 5% 18% 9% 8% 19% 2% 13%
56#'#3G94
Domestic Sectors, But Latest Data Is Optimistic
External vs Domestic Sectors of Singapore's GDP
39
56#'#3G94
( (8 ( (8
:
7 ? 7; 7;? 77 77?
A0
2(%5 9(%"5
; E# 7 E# 0;E# E'
SG Large Caps With External vs Domestic Focus
40 96.65 88.18 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Index (2011=100) Domestically-Oriented Large Caps Externally-Oriented Large Caps ! 9 L#
G(:
' H
1625FA"M;A$"N95FA"M;A$= 56&
5H#!+
Consumption and Investment Growth
41
0.6
5 10 15 20 25 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % y/y Consumption Investment
56#'#3@94
42
1965 – 1978:
Export Oriented Industrialisation
1986 – 1997:
Capability Building & Economic Diversification
1998>2010:
Transforming to KBE
1979 – 1985:
Industrial Restructuring
565&+$%'%
2016>20:
# $
2016>20:
# $
2010>15:
Economic Strategies Comm
43 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
7?8 7;8 7;7 77; :
#(+ ! % 9%
5
9%**
Singapore’s Nominal GDP
44
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
56#'#3@94
@#7;E
5@5:E $)7E ;8E #;07E E
Singapore’s Nominal GDP
45 y = 6E-08x3 - 0.004x2 + 95.057x - 763354 R² = 0.9942
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
56#'#3@94
#(+ ! % 9% % 9% 5 9%
47
.2+&,&,N .@&&+5&+,&(&, +N :.,&%,%&+N .#&&("/$5&+N 8.2& $%%&
48
Future growth industries and markets. '%$%%&&,&$+ 5&+-%+<++&+. Corporate capabilities and innovation. %&+% %%"+""+-%&,, %%++". Jobs and skills. @+$%&+%& $-% %&%(%&/-%K+5&+, %%$$. Urban development and infrastructure. %&$ %%"++-%&"&"$ ++%$%"&.
,5&+&"@%,%.
49
.2+&,&,N .@&&+5&+ ,&(&,+N :.,&%,%&+N .#&&("/$5&+N 8.2& $% %& .&,%%. .#++%". :.O%. .%"+%$. 8.#".
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Government Intervention
Singapore’s GINI Coefficient
51 0.482 0.478 0.463 0.463 0.439 0.432 0.409 0.410 0.360 0.380 0.400 0.420 0.440 0.460 0.480 0.500 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Gini Before Accounting for Govt Transfers & Taxes After Accounting for Govt Transfers & Taxes 0.020 0.040 0.060 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Spread Average
56#'#3@94
'+"$$" $$02
Economic vs Social Expdt Trade/Ind vs Healthcare Expdt
Lots More Emphasis on Social Expdt Since 2011
10.1% 12.5% 6.3% 4.8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 % of Total Expdt Healthcare Trade/Industry
+2.4%
44.6% 47.3% 20.0% 21.9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 % of Total Expdt % Social Expdt % Economic Expdt
+2.7% +1.9%
56#'#3@94
From Singapore’s Annual Budgets
54 (? (; 7(
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MACHINE LEARNING
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Latent Dirichlet Allocation Method
55
1 P#,"$+%&*Q QUESTION
600 pages 12 Years of History Uncovered within 1 day 1 Million words
56
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Global Financial Crisis Increase in GST Structural Shifts In Economy 2011 Elections
57
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Contact Details Francis Tan