MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK A region in transition 1 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK A region in transition 1 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK GLOBAL TRENDS Geopolitical Economic Interest Rate Convergence 1. Global terrorism 1. Global Growth 2. US-JCPOA 2. US interest rates 3. US 3. Dollar fluctuations
1 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
A region in transition
2 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
Geopolitical Economic 1. Global terrorism 1. Global Growth 2. US-JCPOA 2. US interest rates 3. US 3. Dollar fluctuations
Global Growth is Improving Interest Rate Convergence
Source: Goldman Sachs, 2018-global-economic-
Source: Goldman Sachs, 2018-global-economic-
Source: Goldman Sachs, 2018-global-economic-
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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Last… WTI Brent
Rising Oil prices Government Finances
Source: EIA Source: IMF
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2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 2017 2018 2019
MENA GDP Growth 2017-2020
MENA GDP growth 2006 - 2016 growth average World Average
1 2 3 4 5 6 A l g e r i a S . A r a b i a B a h r a i n L e b a n
J
d a n T u n i s i a M
c
a t a r T u r k e y U A E O m a n I r a n K u w a i t E g y p t
MENA GDP Growth 2017 vs 2018
Source: IMF
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MENA Inflation 2015-2020
MENA 2006-2016 World average MENA
5 10 15 20 25 M
c
a h r a i n J
d a n L e b a n
Q a t a r U A E S a u d i A r a b i a T u n i s i a O m a n K u w a i t A l g e r i a T u r k e y I r a n E g y p t
MENA Inflation 2017 vs 2018
2017 2018
Source: IMF Source: IMF
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10 20 30 40 50 60 70
1 2 3 4 5 6
2015 2016 2017 2018 GDP Inflation Brent
KSA 2018 Outlook
Source: IMF
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0.25 0.5
0.59 0.57 1.6 2.7
1 2 3 4 5
Q 1
1 6 Q 2
1 6 Q 3
1 6 Q 4
1 6 Q 1
1 7 Q 2
1 7 Q 3
1 7
KSA Non-oil Growth
40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60
Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17
KSA Business Activity KSA
Source: Markit Source: Central Department of Statistics & Information
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88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106
Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017
KSA: Consumer confidence
10.8 14.1 16.3 15.7 18.2 17.9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tourist Arrivals (millions)
Source: Nielsen Source: SESRIC
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As we leave 2017…
1. Increase in input costs 2. Decline in output prices d 3. UAE growth relative to GCC
... and look forward to 2018
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17
Business Activity
Dubai Economy Tracker UAE 1. Stronger public sector spending 2. Government revenue diversification 3. Pick up in credit growth
Source: Emirates NBD Research
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Source of consumption? Total contribution of travel and tourism to the economy
Source: World Travel & Tourism Council, Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2017, United Arab Emirates
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20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000
K e n y a P a k i s t a n N i g e r i a M
c
u n i s i a J
d a n E g y p t S
t h … L i b y a A l g e r i a I r a q I r a n L e b a n
T u r k e y O m a n B a h r a i n S a u d i … U A E K u w a i t Q a t a r
GDP Per Capita 2017 ($USD)
Source: IMF
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0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GCC Growth 2017 vs 2018
GDP growth Private consumption
1 2 3 4 5 6 K S A B a h r a i n Q a t a r U A E O m a n K u w a i t G C C A v e r a g e 2 4
1 4
GCC Growth 2017 vs 2018
2017 2018
Source: World Bank Source: IMF
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1.7 2.5 0.3 1.9 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017
Qatar Quarterly Growth
Source: Qatar Statistics Authority
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15 15.5 16 16.5 17 17.5 18 18.5 19 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Oman Unemployment (%)
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 2015 2016 2017 2018
Oman GDP growth
Source: NCSI Source: Central Bank Oman
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Oman Inbound Tourism
GCC India UK Germany Pakistan
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17
Oman Tourist Arrivals
Source: NCSI Source: NCSI
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40 42 44 46 48 50 52 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17
Business Activity
11.4 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.8 Q3-2017 Q2-2017 Q1-2017 Q4-2016 Q3-2016
Unemployement (%)
21.9 32.95 28.1 10 15 20 25 30 35 Dec-2017 Nov-2017 Oct-2017 Sep-2017 Aug-2017 Jul-2017 Jun-2017 May-2017 Apr-2017 Mar-2017 Feb-2017 Jan-2017
Inflation % (y-o-y increase)
37,020.00 20,000.00 25,000.00 30,000.00 35,000.00 40,000.00 Jan-2017 Feb-2017 Mar-2017 Apr-2017 May-2017 Jun-2017 Jul-2017 Aug-2017 Sep-2017 Oct-2017 Nov-2017
Foreign Exchange Reserves USD (in million)
Source: Central Bank of Egypt Source: Central Bank of Egypt Source: Markit Source: CAPMAS, Egypt
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Source of consumption? Total contribution of travel and tourism to the economy
Source: World Travel & Tourism Council, Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2017, Egypt
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