The 15 th Annual IGPA Conference December 2012 Kyoto, Japan Mazen - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The 15 th Annual IGPA Conference December 2012 Kyoto, Japan Mazen - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The 15 th Annual IGPA Conference December 2012 Kyoto, Japan Mazen Tantash JAPM Agenda MENA Facts About the Spring Effect on Generic Producers Post Spring Future Trends Facts about MENA Pharma Market Size USD 18 billion Generic Market

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The 15th Annual IGPA Conference December 2012 Kyoto, Japan

Mazen Tantash JAPM

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SLIDE 2
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Agenda

MENA Facts About the Spring Effect on Generic Producers Post Spring Future Trends

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SLIDE 4

Facts about MENA

Pharma Market Size USD 18 billion Generic Market Size USD 8.8 billion Generic Market Growth CAGR +12% Population 340 million Population Growth 2.7% GDP USD 2.2 trillion GDP Growth 3-4%

  • No. of Generic Manufacturers 280
  • No. Countries

18

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Market size by country

in millions

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 Saudi Arabia Egypt Algeria Iraq Morocco Syria UAE Tunisia Yemen Libya Lebanon Jordan Sudan Kuwait WB & Gaza Qatar Oman Bahrain Brand Generics

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Generic market size by country

in millions

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 Egypt Morocco Algeria Iraq Syria Saudi Arabia Tunisia Jordan Lebanon Sudan Yemen Kuwait WB & Gaza UAE Libya Qatar Oman Bahrain Brand Generics

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Generics Share by Country

in millions

2011 Saudi Arabia Egypt Algeria Iraq Morocco Syria UAE Tunisia Yemen Libya Lebanon Jordan Sudan Kuwait WB & Gaza Qatar Oman Bahrain Total Population Nominal GDP

  • in

billions Pharma Sales Generics % Generics Value Pharma Expenditure per capita 26.5 651.6 3,680

  • 12%

442 139 83.7 252.4 3,056

  • 91%

2781 37 35.4 210.1 1,630

  • 60%

978 46 31.1 82.1 1,550

  • 60%

930 50 32.3 100.3 1,400

  • 90%

1260 43 22.5 59.0 1,090

  • 70%

763 48 5.3 360.0 930

  • 9%

84 175 10.7 46.0 790

  • 48%

379 74 24.7 31.2 700

  • 30%

210 28 9.7 26.8 600

  • 11%

66 62 4.1 39.2 590

  • 39%

230 144 6.5 27.5 500

  • 54%

270 77 34.0 53.0 460

  • 49%

225 14 2.6 144.2 390

  • 30%

117 150 4.3 6.6 280

  • 35%

98 65 1.9 109.0 215

  • 10%

22 113 3.1 62.2 210

  • 6%

13 68 1.2 22.3 118

  • 9%

11 98 339.6

  • 2,284
  • 18,189
  • 49%

8,878

  • 54
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SLIDE 8

2011 Per Capita Pharma Expenditure

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 175 150 144 139 113 98 74 68 65 62 62 50 48 46 43 37 28 14 USD

  • Approx. USA: 960, Spain: 600
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Facts about MENA generics

  • MENA markets have high dependency on imported drugs

52%.

  • Almost all MENA countries have local production of generics
  • Jordan is the leading Arab pharmaceutical exporter
  • Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Algeria, are the largest markets
  • The United Arab Emirates, has the highest-priced market in

the region

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The Middle East –

Spring Influenced No Change

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Phases of Arab Spring

Peaceful Demos

1

Violent Demos

2

Armed Struggle

3

International Interference

4 The Spring has not ended yet

Regime Change

5

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Symptoms of Arab Spring

  • Directed against dictatorships
  • Need transitional governments
  • Lead by youth
  • Utilize internet and social

networks for communication

  • Call for more democratic rights
  • Against corruption
  • Faced with government

repression

  • More women participation
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Spring Effect on GDP Growth

  • 80
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 80 2009 2010 2011 2012

  • 0.1

2.5

  • 61

76.3 4.7 5.1 1.8 1.5 Libya Egypt

Both Egypt & Libya had their Spring in 2011

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Effects on Generic Producers

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Reaction of the Generic Pharma

Defer Capital Investment Minimize Finished Product Inventory Build RPM Inventories Reduce Headcount Conserve Cash

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Effect on Demand

CURRENT State

2012 Pre-spring 2015 Pharma Generic Sales Demand during the spring is reduced

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Effect on Demand

CURRENT State

2012 Pre-spring 2015 Pharma Generic Sales Demand is expected to grow beyond pre-spring levels at a faster pace

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Post Spring Recovery

4

Reduced Unemployment & Economic growth

3

Economic Stimulus & Re-building programs

2

Recovering Assets

1

Constitutional Reform After electing the new government, there are needed steps to recovery

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  • 1. Increased mergers, acquisitions, and partnerships
  • 2. Local manufacturers will mushroom regionally to

diversify risk

  • 3. Health Care reform
  • 4. Rise of bio-similar to reduce the pharma bill
  • 5. High / increased level of regulatory scrutiny and

more focus on Quality

  • 6. Regulatory downward pressure on pricing

Trends 2013 and onwards

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What does it all mean?

30%

Growth in generic pharma

More democratic decision making People will demand better and more comprehensive healthcare More economically priced healthcare will be called for

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