Livestock and 28 US Land Grant Universities: 7 USDA Agencies : AMS - - PDF document

▶
livestock and
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Livestock and 28 US Land Grant Universities: 7 USDA Agencies : AMS - - PDF document

Mar 12, 2024 129 likes •208 views

Jim Robb, LMIC 11/28/17 Livestock and 28 US Land Grant Universities: 7 USDA Agencies : AMS (Market News), APIS, Feedgrain Outlook ERS, GIPSA (Packers & Stock.), NASS, FAS, and WAOB 12 Associate Members: 2017 Range Beef Cow Symposium

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Jim Robb, LMIC 11/28/17 2017 Range Beef Cow Symposium, Cheyenne, Wyo. 1

Livestock and Feedgrain Outlook

2017 Range Beef Cow Symposium

November 28-30, 2017 James G. Robb Director, LMIC Website: www.lmic.info 7 USDA Agencies: AMS (Market News), APIS,

ERS, GIPSA (Packers & Stock.), NASS, FAS, and WAOB

12 Associate Members: AFBF

ASI NCBA NPB CME-Group Canadian Consortium Noble Research Institute CoBank TCFA TCU NWFCS DLR

28 US Land Grant Universities:

USDA Data Sources -- NASS, AMS, FAS, and ERS Forecasts By -- LMIC

Topics: Outlook and Economic Drivers ….

  • Cattle Prices and LMIC’s Forecasts Through 2019
  • Corn Price Outlook
  • Total U.S. Red Meat and Poultry Production
  • Dimensions of Demand and The Marketing Chain
  • Beef International Trade
  • Cattle -- Cyclical Aspects and Returns
  • Marketing, Managing, and Financing
  • Some Really Long Term Stuff

90 100 110 120 130 140 150

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly

  • Avg. 2011-15

2016 2017

Data Source: USDA-AMS

120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

  • MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES

500-600 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly

  • Avg. 2011-15

2016 2017

Data Source: USDA-AMS

50 60 70 80 90 100

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

SLAUGHTER COW PRICES Southern Plains, 85-90% Lean, Weekly

  • Avg. 2011-15

2016 2017

Data Source: USDA-AMS

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Jim Robb, LMIC 11/28/17 2017 Range Beef Cow Symposium, Cheyenne, Wyo. 2

820 840 860 880 900 920 940

JAN APR JUL OCT

Pounds

STEER DRESSED WEIGHT Federally Inspected, Weekly

  • Avg. 2011-15

2016 2017

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

$ Per Cwt

AVERAGE ANNUAL CATTLE PRICES Southern Plains

500-600lb Steer Calves 700-800lb Feeder Steers Fed Steers

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC

75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$ Per Cwt

AVERAGE CALF PRICES 500-600lb Steer Calves, Southern Plains

Annual Average 4th Quarter

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC

Year

  • S. Plains

Quarter 5-600# ($/Cwt) 2016 I 195.73 II 173.86 III 157.12 IV 138.44 Year 166.29 2017 I 157.38 II 170.49 III 165.47 IV b 166-168 Year 164-166 2018 I c 161-165 II 161-166 III 154-160 IV 147-154 Year 155-161 2019 I 150-158 II 151-160 III 148-158 IV 143-154 Year 149-157

Domestic Consumer Demand and ....

50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

Index

Domestic U.S. Consumer Confidence Monthly, Index year 1966 = 100

Data Source: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan

50 55 60 65 70

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Pounds

US BEEF CONSUMPTION Per Capita, Retail Weight, Annual

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

slide-3
SLIDE 3

Jim Robb, LMIC 11/28/17 2017 Range Beef Cow Symposium, Cheyenne, Wyo. 3

100 99 91 89 86 84 75 73 75 77 82 82 83 85 92 87 83 83 78 74 75 76 78 79 86 93 88 89 20 40 60 80 100 120

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Index Value

RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Third Quarter, Using CPI 1990=100

Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

40 90 140 190 240 290 340 390 440

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

$ Per 1000 lbs

LIVE TO CUTOUT BEEF PRICE SPREAD Monthly

  • Avg. 2011-15

2016 2017

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

$ Per 1000 lbs

CUTOUT TO RETAIL BEEF PRICE SPREAD Monthly

  • Avg. 2011-15

2016 2017

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

Pork, Chicken, Etc.

5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5

JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC

  • Bil. Pounds

COMMERCIAL PORK PRODUCTION

US, Quarterly

  • Avg. 2012/16

2017 2018 2019

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

  • Mil. Pounds

US PORK EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly

  • Avg. 2011-15

2016 2017

Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Jim Robb, LMIC 11/28/17 2017 Range Beef Cow Symposium, Cheyenne, Wyo. 4

8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5

JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC

  • Bil. Pounds

RTC BROILER PRODUCTION

US, Quarterly

  • Avg. 2012/16

2017 2018 2019

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

450 470 490 510 530 550 570 590 610 630 650

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

  • Mil. Pounds

US BROILER EXPORTS RTC Weight, Monthly

  • Avg. 2011-15

2016 2017

Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

21.5 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.5 25.0 25.5 26.0 26.5 27.0 27.5

JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC

  • Bil. Pounds

TOTAL RED MEAT & POULTRY PRODUCTION

US, Quarterly

  • Avg. 2012/16

2017 2018 2019

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

2018 Annual Per Person Dis. 218.7 Lb. Retail. Largest Since 2007 41/57 = 72% since1960

Beef Exports and Imports

150 175 200 225 250 275

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

  • Mil. Pounds

US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly

  • Avg. 2011-15

2016 2017

Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

  • Bil. Pounds

US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual

Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Jim Robb, LMIC 11/28/17 2017 Range Beef Cow Symposium, Cheyenne, Wyo. 5

1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

  • Bil. Pounds

US BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual

Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

Feedgrains

  • - Corn

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

  • Bil. Bushels

US CORN DISAPPEARANCE AND STOCKS Crop Year

Feed & Residual Food, Seed & Industrial Exports Stocks

Data Source: USDA-NASS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC

1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

$ Per Bushel

  • Bil. Bushels

US TOTAL CORN SUPPLY AND PRICE Crop Year

Supply Price

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

  • Bu. Per Acre

NATIONAL AVERAGE CORN YIELD Crop Year

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

155 Bu Per Acre $4.70/Bu

Cattle

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Jim Robb, LMIC 11/28/17 2017 Range Beef Cow Symposium, Cheyenne, Wyo. 6

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

  • Mil. Head

TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY BY CYCLE U.S., January 1

1938-49 1949-58 1958-67 1967-79 1979-90 1990-04 2004-14 2014-17

Data Source: USDA-NASS

33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

  • Mil. Head

CALF CROP July Es`mates, U.S., Annual

Data Source: USDA-NASS

+3.5 Percent 2017 = 36.3 Million Head

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

JAN APR JUL OCT

  • Thou. Head

BEEF COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly

  • Avg. 2011-15

2016 2017

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200

JAN APR JUL OCT

  • Thou. Head

HEIFER SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly

  • Avg. 2011-15

2016 2017

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

80 90 100 110 120 130 140

1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

  • Mil. Head

JANUARY 1 TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., Annual

Data Source: USDA-NASS; Forecasts by LMIC

5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5

JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC

  • Bil. Pounds

COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTION

US, Quarterly

  • Avg. 2012/16

2017 2018 2019

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

2018 Annual Per Person Dis. 57.8 Lb. Retail. Largest Since 2010 2017 = 26.2 Billion 2018 = 27.3 Billion 2019 = 27.9 Billion

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Jim Robb, LMIC 11/28/17 2017 Range Beef Cow Symposium, Cheyenne, Wyo. 7

  • 100

100 200 300 400 500

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

$ Per Cow

ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNS Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual

Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC

75 100 125 150 175 200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ Per Cwt.

CHOICE STEER PRICE vs BREAKEVEN Cadle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly

Steer Price Breakeven Projected Breakeven

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Latest Data: October 2017

Economic Environment and Managing .…

  • Cattle Feeding – One of Best Years Ever in 2014,

to Worst in 2015, to Great First 8 Months of 2017

  • Cyclically Lower Annual Average Cattle Prices

throughout 2018

  • Marketing Calves Against Larger Supplies
  • Sequential Decision-Making
  • Annual Marketing Plan Tied To

Monthly Cash Flow Statement

  • What If ?????

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650

Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

Cents Per Pound

RETAIL PRICE COMPARISON Monthly

Pork Composite Broiler All Fresh Beef

Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA-ERS

Product Markets In Transition: Segmentation

Subdivision Separation Breakdown Differentiation

Thank You!

www.lmic.info