Lisa B. Beever, James W. Beever, Whitney Gray, Dan Trescott, Judy Ott - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Lisa B. Beever, James W. Beever, Whitney Gray, Dan Trescott, Judy Ott Southwest Florida Chapter of the Audubon Society Southwest Florida Chapter of the Audubon Society January 20, 2011

Climate Ready Estuaries – Partnership with 15 NEPs and EPA Partnership with 15 NEPs and EPA

Barnegat Bay NEP

www.epa.gov/cre

Why Charlotte Harbor NEP? y C a otte a bo

• Host SWFRPC 2
• Host SWFRPC 2

decades of storm surge modeling & g g hurricane planning.

• 2001 500-yr & 2008

100 d ht 100-yr droughts.

• 2004 Category 4 land-

falling storm; Hurricane falling storm; Hurricane Charley.

• Climate-aware

Climate aware population.

North Captiva Island breach

USGS photo

Mote Marine Laboratory Brad Robbins, Michelle Gitfler, Anamari Boyes

Comprehensive Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan Management Plan

SG-Q: Build capacity

for communities and their local leadership to their local leadership to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change through joint efforts.

Projects in support of SG-Q

• Regional Vulnerability Assessment (2007-2009)
• Punta Gorda Adaptation Plan (CRE 2008-2009)

Punta Gorda Adaptation Plan (CRE 2008 2009)

• Vulnerability Assessment Lite (2009-2010)
• CC Environmental Indicators (CRE 2009-2010)

CC Environmental Indicators (CRE 2009 2010)

• Model Ordinances/Comp Plan (CRE 2009-2010)
• Punta Gorda Comp Plan amend (2009 2010)
• Punta Gorda Comp Plan amend (2009-2010)
• Salt Marsh Adaptation (2009-2012)
• Seagrass response to SLR (2009)
• Seagrass response to SLR (2009)
• Lee County Resiliency Plan (2009-2010)

C t l E l i l M d l (CRE 2010 2011)

• Conceptual Ecological Models (CRE 2010-2011)
• Bonita Springs Adaptation Plan (Battelle pilot)

Significant Potential Climate Changes & Grouped Effects Changes & Grouped Effects

• Air Temperature and Chemistry

W t T t d Ch i t

• Water Temperature and Chemistry
• Climate Instability
• Altered Hydrology
• Altered Hydrology
• Sea Level Rise
• Geomorphic Changes

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• Habitat and Species Changes
• Land Use Changes

H E

• Human Economy
• Human Health
• Infrastructure
• Infrastructure
• Variable Risk

Potential Impacts of Climate Change

Critical Facilities Cultural Resources Critical Facilities

Emergency services Communications Solid waste Water supply and wastewater Transportation

Cultural Resources

Historic districts Lighthouses Transportation Energy supply

Human Health

Weather-related mortality Infectious diseases Air Quality: respiratory illnesses

Climate Change Water Resources

Changes in water supply Water quality Increased competition for water

Climate Change Drivers and Stressors Coastal Resources

Erosion of beaches Increased competition for water

Wildlife and

Erosion of beaches Inundate coastal lands Costs to defend communities

Economic Activities

Agriculture Forestry

Ecosystems

Shift in ecological zones Loss of habitat and species Damage to habitats y Tourism Building Ocean economy Mining

NOAA Tide Station in Fort Myers NOAA Tide Station in Fort Myers

Rate of change = approximately 1 inch per decade

Mean Sea Level Trend 1965 – 2006 from NOAA Tide Station at Fort Myers

In the last 100 years SW Fl has: In the last 100 years, SW Fl has:

• Increased avg air temp 1.2o F, Arcadia 0.
• Increased annual # days >90o F by 12

Increased annual # days >90 F by 12.

• No change in total rainfall.

I d % i i i b 6

• Increased % rain in rainy season by 6.
• Increased sea level by 8 inches.

David Zierden, State Climatologist

Patterns of Average Temperature Patterns of Average Temperature

1961-1979 from cool period 1961 1979 from cool period

USGCRP 2009

Adaptation Plan for a small city, Punta Gorda

Objective 2.4.2: Address the impacts of sea level rise, and seek strategies to b t it ff t th combat its effects on the shoreline of the City. Policy 2.4.2.1: The City will work with the SWFRPC to d t i t ti l determine potential sea level rise impacts on the Coastal Planning Area. Measurement: Completion d i l t ti f and implementation of developed coastal studies

• r development of model

scenarios.

April 9, 2009 Public Workshop

• Card Game (brainstorm & prioritize vulnerabilities)

www.thiagi.com/games.html Group Scoop

April 9, 2009 Public Workshop

• Envelopes Game (brainstorm adaptation options)

April 9, 2009 Public Workshop

• Thumbs up/down (Consensus on vulnerabilities)

Vulnerabilities

Altered Hydrology Habitat Degradation SWFRPC Grouped Vulnerabilities Citizen Priority Vulnerabilities

Vulnerabilities

Altered Hydrology Storm Severity/Climate Instability Water Temperature & Chemistry Habitat Degradation Inadequate Water Supply Flooding Habitat and Species Changes Sea Level Rise Geomorphic (Landform) Changes Flooding Unmanaged Growth Water Quality Degradation Air Temperature & Chemistry Infrastructure Human Economy Education Lack of Money/Finance Human Economy Human Health Land Use Changes Economy Fire Insurance Variable Risk Insurance

June 2, 2009 Public Workshop

• Board Game (Locate, prioritize, discard adaptations)

Prioritized Vulnerabilities The top consensus adaptations for each area of vulnerability include:

• 1. Fish and Wildlife Habitat Degradation;
• 1. Seagrass protection and restoration
• 2. Inadequate Water Supply;
• 2. Xeriscaping and native plant landscaping.

adequa e a e Supp y; e scap g a d a e p a a dscap g

• 3. Flooding;
• 3. Explicitly indicating in the comprehensive

plan which areas will retain natural shorelines shorelines.

• 4. Unchecked or Unmanaged Growth;
• 4. Constraining locations for certain high risk

infrastructure

• 5. Water Quality Degradation;
• 5. Restrict fertilizer use.
• 6. Education and Economy and Lack of

F d

• 6. Promote green building alternatives

th h d ti t i i ti Funds; through education, taxing incentives, green lending.

• 7. Fire;
• 7. Drought preparedness planning
• 8. Availability of Insurance.
• 8. Implementation of the other adaptations,

particularly 3 and 4.

Alternative Rolling Bulkhead with Gradual Sand Elevating the Armored Dike

A hypothetical comparison of relative costs of various sea-level rise adaptations for the City of Punta Gorda

Alternative Rolling Easement Bulkhead with Fill to 6 feet (The Galveston Solution) Gradual Sand Filling to Keep Pace (Volk 2008) Elevating the Infrastructure (The Venice Solution) Armored Dike with 4 Major Pumps (The New Orleans Solution) h l Shoreline Less than total: set at the boundary between current uplands with freshwater wetlands d tid l t l tl d $58,332,852 $1,530,358,919 $76,500,000 $1,269,520,000 $2,157,450,984 and tidal coastal wetlands. Total: with irregular outer mangrove shoreline without

• verwash mangrove islands or

many convoluted embayments $69,770,641 $1,554,071,794 $91,500,000 $1,269,520,000 $3,773,093,875 y y Total: with irregular outer mangrove shoreline with convoluted embayments but not the overwash mangrove islands with canals open to navigation $77,777,108 $1,569,436,395 $102,000,000 $1,269,520,000 $3,868,536,601 with canals open to navigation

Charlotte County- Punta Gorda Metropolitan Planning Organization Metropolitan Planning Organization Hazard Mitigation Strategy

Hazards Addressed Mitigation Options

Storm Surge Sea Level Rise Erosion Rainfall Flooding Hurricane Force Wind Wildfire Accommodation Mitigation Options Mitigation and Recovery Planning

   

Elevation

 

Stormwater Drainage



Design and Material Modifications

   

Protection Mitigation Options Structural Shoreline Protection

  

Non‐Structural Shoreline Protection

  

Relocation/Retreat Mitigation Options Relocation and Right of Way Acquisition

  

Monitor and Eventual Retreat

  

City of Punta Gorda W t T t t Pl t

• Replace 45 year-old dam structure

Water Treatment Plant

• Add groundwater supply and membrane

process (instead of reservoir expansion) E d f iliti f th

• Expand facilities for growth.

City of Punta Gorda 4 Comp Plan Major Issues

1 Transportation Concurrency Exemption Area

• 1. Transportation Concurrency Exemption Area
• 2. Energy Efficiency Alternatives
• 3. Climate Adaptation/SLR Strategies
• 3. Climate Adaptation/SLR Strategies
• 4. Declining Tax Revenues & Budget Cutbacks

Goal 1: Temporal and Spatial Context Goal 2: Armoring Filling Diking (Protection) Goal 2: Armoring, Filling, Diking (Protection) Goal 3: Redesign (Accommodation) Goal 4: Planned Relocation (Managed Retreat)

Source of Graphic: Micheal Volk, UF

Lee Co. Resiliency Strategy

• Outlines the essential elements of a resiliency strategy

S i l biliti

• Summarizes vulnerabilities
• Summarizes input received from Lee County

leadership and constitutional officers leadership and constitutional officers

• Identifies strategies that Lee County could pursue to

increase resiliency to the identified vulnerabilities increase resiliency to the identified vulnerabilities

• Identifies ways to incorporate climate change

resiliency into the Comprehensive Plan

• Outlines monitoring and evaluation strategies.

Online Survey

Years in Florida Years in Lee County Impacts of Hurricane Charley on department assets personnel

Online Survey

Years in Lee County Perceptions of changes in weather, water quality, fishing and wildlife department assets, personnel and processes

County Commissioners Division Heads

Age & location of facilities What is the most important thing

Constitutional Officers

Age & location of facilities Potential for facilities to be storm-hardened Potential energy-saving for Lee County to do to prepare for climate change? What is the worst thing Lee County could do to prepare for Potential energy saving measures for facilities and staff County could do to prepare for climate change?

Interviews

Reaction to online survey Reaction to draft Potential effects of climate change on the department Did we leave out anything important? Who else should we talk to? change on the department Lee County’s greatest vulnerability to climate change

County Commissioners Division Heads C tit ti l Offi

How important do you think it is for Lee County to try to deal with Avoidance, minimization, mitigation and adaptation ideas

Constitutional Officers

for Lee County to try to deal with climate change in an organized manner? mitigation and adaptation ideas

Vulnerabilities identified by Interviewees

Buildings and County Infrastructure Buildings and County Infrastructure

• Impacts to roads from increased creek and

stream flows

• More frequent replacement of materials

Coastal Protections

• Impacts to beaches and the demand for

beach renourishment

• More frequent storm events with

associated erosion Coastal Economies associated erosion

• Declining property values impacting the County’s

ability to maintain infrastructure and provide adequate services

• Impact on tourism.
• Hotter temperatures will increase the cost of

Health and Human Services

• Increased impact on the economically

disadvantaged

• Possible modification of work hours due to hotter
• Hotter temperatures will increase the cost of

workers’ compensation. temperatures. Land Use Planning and Growth Management

• Possible reduction of migration into the area

and a possible increase in migration out of the Water and Wastewater

• Could experience strains on our freshwater

aquifers

• Surface water management issues

area.

• Residents may experience increased response

times for emergency services Surface water management issues Economic Development

• Higher utility bills

Natural Systems and Resources

• Concerns regarding Lake Okeechobee flows
• Could experience impacts to landscaping and

plants Higher utility bills

• More frequent adverse working conditions for
• utdoor workers
• Could impact sea life and the estuary
• Destruction of ecological systems which could

severely impact our tourism industry Education and Outreach

• Could impact nearly every area of how the County

functions impacting the budget and demanding functions impacting the budget and demanding more interdepartmental and intergovernmental coordination

• Potential for increased variability of weather –

more rainfall during and longer periods of drought

Multiple Public Water Suppliers

“An often overlooked consumer of energy is consumer of energy is the municipal potable water service.”

• Acquire land for flood/water supply. 
• Acquire land for recharge. 
• Agricultural water reuse

Agricultural water reuse.

• Reduce local GHG emissions.
• Build climate-friendly landscaping into codes and educate

homeowners and require in County landscaping homeowners and require in County landscaping.

• Capture digester gases from wastewater reclamation plants and use

them to produce electricity. Ch di th t i t f t

• Change ordinances that require turf grass, etc.
• Charge more for treated water similar to Sarasota (Sliding scale.)
• Use and encourage use of cisterns/rain barrels.
• Conservation education
• Consider climate change in water supply planning.
• Control fertilizer use  (see www fertilizesmart com)

Control fertilizer use.  (see www.fertilizesmart.com)

• Control invasive exotic species.
• Create redundancy in water supply

M i t i d i ki t t d d 

Page 1 of 2

• Maintain drinking water standards. 
• Engage in drought preparedness planning

 =Already Implementing Measure

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• Encourage composting and mulching to reduce irrigation. 
• Identify alternative water sources, including Desalinization.

Id tif fli ti li i b t

• Identify conflicting policies between programs.
• Improve plant efficiency through the installation of more energy

efficient motors and variable frequency drives on water pumps.

• Improve water distribution systems and leak detection.
• Improved system of retaining rainwater.
• Increase stormwater management capacity.

g p y

• Increase tree cover to reduce evaporation from ground.
• Install rainfall sensors to reduce automatic irrigation.
• Minimize impervious surfaces to increase recharge
• Minimize impervious surfaces to increase recharge.
• Minimize use of potable water for irrigation. 
• Protect groundwater sources. 
• Reduce runoff into streams.
• Reinforce existing infrastructure.
• Restore natural accretion processes.

Page 2 of 2

p

• Use native plants in landscaping. 
• Use of reclaimed water for irrigation. 

g

Existing Env. Indicators

• EPA Required

EPA Required

• 54 named

12 i it b t

• 12 priority, but

gaps in info

• No SG indicators.

General Process General Process

• Inventory potential indicators (vulnerabilities)

Inventory potential indicators (vulnerabilities)

• Survey scientists and interested people

S l t t i di t f f th t d

• Select top indicators for further study
• Identify monitoring data sources, etc.
• Survey scientists and interested people
• Select top indicators

Select top indicators

• Prepare one-page sheets to amend report

Ad t th h itt

• Adopt through committee

Climate Change Indicators Climate Change Indicators

• Changes to precipitation trend/patterns

Changes to precipitation trend/patterns, including extreme precipitation

• Sea level rise
• Sea-level rise
• Water temperature
• Phenology (biological life cycle events)
• Habitat migration

g

172 Individual Candidate Indicators 20 20 Respondents

1953

2009

Landward Migration of seagrass in Charlotte Harbor East/West

Range Expansions? Range Expansions?

Longnose Killifish (Fundulus similis) Florida White, male (Appias drusilla) g ( ) Audubon Guide to Fishes 2002 Northern extent, Marco Island Found at Sanibel Causeway 2010 Butterflies thru binocs, Glassberg et al 2000 Northern extent, Monroe County Found at Estero Bay 2010

Citrus Phenology-Lake Alfred gy

250 300 200

er 1

150

ys from Octob

50 100

Day

50 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 195 196 196 196 196 196 197 197 197 197 197 198 198 198 198 198 199 199 199 199 199 200 200 200 200 200 Year First Differentiation First Bloom Wave

Conceptual Ecological Models p g

• Organize thought in graphic way

L t k h th

• Lay out key hypotheses
• Identify important linkages which tie

management to natural responses

• Provide a strategy for research

gy

• Communicate complex ideas to managers,

citizens and decision-makers citizens and decision makers

• Managers use CEMs to crystallize large

amounts of science and place project amounts of science and place project decisions into context.

Other Related Efforts Other Related Efforts

• Everglades Restoration Science

Everglades Restoration Science Coordination Group Climate Change CEM

• NOAA Marine and Estuarine Integrated
• NOAA Marine and Estuarine Integrated

Conceptual Ecological Model for Florida Shelf areas Shelf areas.

• We are leveraging each of these efforts.
• Using some lessons learned.

CEM Hierarchy

Dri er Th j t l d i i f th t h Driver - The major external driving forces that have large‐scale influences on natural systems. Drivers can be natural forces (e.g., sea‐level rise) or anthropogenic . Stressors - The physical or chemical changes that occur within natural systems that are brought about by the drivers, and which are directly responsible for significant changes in the biological components, patterns and relationships in natural systems patterns and relationships in natural systems. Ecological Effects – The responses caused by the

• stressors. The links between stressors, effects and

attributes are diagrammatic representations of the working hypotheses that explain changes. Attributes - A parsimonious subset of all potential biological elements or components of natural systems, which are representative of the overall ecological

Number of Roseate Spoonbills

which are representative of the overall ecological conditions of the system. Measures - The specific feature(s) of each attribute to be monitored to determine how well that attribute is di j d i d h d

Spoonbills

responding to projects designed to correct the adverse effects of the stressors (i.e., to determine the success of the project).

CEM Hierarchy

Dri er Th j t l d i i f th t h Driver - The major external driving forces that have large‐scale influences on natural systems. Drivers can be natural forces (e.g., sea‐level rise) or anthropogenic . Stressors - The physical or chemical changes that occur

Canals

within natural systems that are brought about by the drivers, and which are directly responsible for significant changes in the biological components, patterns and relationships in natural systems

FW confined time/space Scour SAV, FW timing

patterns and relationships in natural systems. Ecological Effects – The responses caused by the

• stressors. The links between stressors, effects and

attributes are diagrammatic representations of the

e/space p g

working hypotheses that explain changes. Attributes - A parsimonious subset of all potential biological elements or components of natural systems, which are representative of the overall ecological

Prey Base Loss of Prey Base

Number of Roseate Spoonbills

which are representative of the overall ecological conditions of the system. Measures - The specific feature(s) of each attribute to be monitored to determine how well that attribute is di j d i d h d

Spoonbills

responding to projects designed to correct the adverse effects of the stressors (i.e., to determine the success of the project).

CEM Hierarchy

Dri er Th j t l d i i f th t h

I th

Driver - The major external driving forces that have large‐scale influences on natural systems. Drivers can be natural forces (e.g., sea‐level rise) or anthropogenic . Stressors - The physical or chemical changes that occur

Improve the water mgmt practice, i

within natural systems that are brought about by the drivers, and which are directly responsible for significant changes in the biological components, patterns and relationships in natural systems

increases sheetflow,

patterns and relationships in natural systems. Ecological Effects – The responses caused by the

• stressors. The links between stressors, effects and

attributes are diagrammatic representations of the

decreases salinities & Increases SAV

working hypotheses that explain changes. Attributes - A parsimonious subset of all potential biological elements or components of natural systems, which are representative of the overall ecological

SAVs increases waterfowl Pop lation

Number of Roseate Spoonbills

which are representative of the overall ecological conditions of the system. Measures - The specific feature(s) of each attribute to be monitored to determine how well that attribute is di j d i d h d

Population increases #

• f rosette

spoonbills

Spoonbills

responding to projects designed to correct the adverse effects of the stressors (i.e., to determine the success of the project).

spoonbills

Rainfall Sea Level Storm i t it Air Land Use P ti H d l Rainfall Rise intensity Temperature Coastal Practices Habitat Hydrology regimes, drought Storm surge Saltwater Intrusion Coastal Sedimen tation Shoreline Hardening Water Quality Habitat Extent/ Compo sition

Bio- Diversity & community Timing of Life-Cycle Events

Location/Exte nt of Wetland/ Submerged/E

Canal Construct ion & Economic Losses y changes

Physical stress

• n/failure of

infrastructure

Introduction and Survival

• f Invasive

g mergent Habitats

Dredging

• f Invasive

Species

Climate Change Planning

• Provide tools to explain and track local climate

change to citizens and decision-makers

• Have staff & citizens identify climate vulnerabilities

and adaptation options

• Build on personal experiences with climate

challenges

• Rely on local creativity for addressing challenges
• Use existing processes to build climate resiliency

in local government

• Give “credit” for existing good practices
• Provide options for elected officials

Director: Lisa B. Beever, PhD, AICP Director: Lisa B. Beever, PhD, AICP Director: Lisa B. Beever, PhD, AICP Director: Lisa B. Beever, PhD, AICP Deputy Director: Liz Donley , esq. Deputy Director: Liz Donley , esq. Communications Manager: Maran Hilgendorf Communications Manager: Maran Hilgendorf Program Scientist: Judy Ott, MS Program Scientist: Judy Ott, MS 1926 Vi t i A F t M FL 33901 1926 Vi t i A F t M FL 33901 3414 3414 1926 Victoria Ave, Fort Myers FL 33901 1926 Victoria Ave, Fort Myers FL 33901-3414 3414 239/338 239/338-

• 2556, Toll free 866/835

2556, Toll free 866/835-

• 5785

5785 Fax 239/338 Fax 239/338-2560 chnep@swfrpc org 2560 chnep@swfrpc org Fax 239/338 Fax 239/338 2560, chnep@swfrpc.org 2560, chnep@swfrpc.org www.CHNEP.org www.CHNEP.org