Lifecycle Cost Modeling and the problem with electric rates Steve - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Lifecycle Cost Modeling and the problem with electric rates Steve - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 29, 2023 404 likes •632 views

ZERO EMISSION BUS TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGES Lifecycle Cost Modeling and the problem with electric rates Steve Miller Chair California Transit Association Zero Emission Bus Task Force CTA Annual Fall Conference November 19, 2015 Critical

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ZERO EMISSION BUS TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGES

Lifecycle Cost Modeling

and the problem with electric rates

Steve Miller

Chair California Transit Association Zero Emission Bus Task Force

CTA Annual Fall Conference – November 19, 2015

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Critical Analysis

Lifecycle Cost Model (LCCM)

Infrastructure Rolling Stock Fuel Maintenance Lifecycle Cost

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Lifecycle Cost Model

Has never been an easy task More difficult for ZEB Particularly challenging for Battery Electric Important to the success of your project Critically important to the Advanced Clean Transit (ACT) discussion

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SLIDE 5 Assumptions: Coaches Purchased FY2017: 67 40 Foot

10% PURCHASE REQUIREMENT ANALYSIS - 20 YEAR PROJECTION

Coaches Purchased FY2025: 23 45 Foot Coaches Purchased FY2027: 32 45 Foot

Including Cost of Capital and Inflation

Coaches Purchased FY2029: 25 45 Foot Coaches Purchased FY2031: 67 40 Foot

CURRENT PRICE MODEL

Discount Rate: 3.0% Inflation Rate: 2.0% Diesel Current Price - Inflation Only Hydrogen Current Price- Inflation Only Diesel Hybrid FCB Bus Purchase Cost 40' 500,000 720,000 1,200,000 Bus Purchase Cost 45' 650,000 900,000 1,400,000 Fuel Cost 2.11 2.11 9.10 Fuel Station O&M 1.43 Compression Electrical Projected MPG/MPkg 4.00 5.00 6.40 Annual Mileage 40' Bus 43,000 43,000 43,000 Annual Mileage 45' Bus 28,000 28,000 28,000 Projected Maint Cost/Mile 0.84 0.71 1.33 Results: Projected Fuel Cost/Mile 0.53 0.42 1.65 Projected Total Cost/Mile 1.37 1.13 2.98 Annual Fuel Cost 40' Bus 22,682.50 18,146.00 70,748.44 Annual Fuel Cost 45' Bus 14,770.00 11,816.00 46,068.75 Annual Maint Cost 40' Bus 36,120.00 30,530.00 57,190.00 Annual Maint Cost 45' Bus 23,520.00 19,880.00 37,240.00 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 FY2026 FY2027 FY2028 FY2029 FY2030 FY2031 FY2032 FY2033 FY2034 FY2035 FY2036 FY2037 Diesel 40' 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 Diesel 45' 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 Diesel Option (Base) Buses 33,500,000 17,516,308 25,355,084 20,608,929 44,202,539 Contract Spares 1,005,000 525,489 760,653 618,268 1,326,076 5307 Funding (27,604,000) (14,433,438) (20,892,589) (16,981,758) (36,422,892) Fuel 2,701,328 2,755,354 2,810,461 2,866,670 2,924,004 2,982,484 3,042,134 3,102,976 3,165,036 3,228,336 3,292,903 3,358,761 3,425,936 3,494,455 3,564,344 3,635,631 3,708,344 3,782,511 3,858,161 3,935,324 4,014,031 Total NPV 2017 Maintenance 4,301,640 4,387,673 4,475,426 4,564,935 4,656,233 4,749,358 4,844,345 4,941,232 5,040,057 5,140,858 5,243,675 5,348,549 5,455,520 5,564,630 5,675,923 5,789,441 5,905,230 6,023,334 6,143,801 6,266,677 6,392,011 209,643,401 156,258,835 13,903,968 7,143,027 7,285,887 7,431,605 7,580,237 7,731,842 7,886,479 8,044,208 11,813,452 8,369,194 13,759,726 8,707,310 13,126,895 9,059,085 18,345,990 9,425,072 9,613,574 9,805,845 10,001,962 10,202,001 10,406,041 Hybrid Option Diesel 40' 67 Diesel 45' 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 57 57 25 25 Hybrid 40' 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 Hybrid 45' 23 23 55 55 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 Buses 48,240,000 24,253,349 35,107,039 28,535,440 63,651,656 Contract Spares 1,447,200 727,600 1,053,211 856,063 1,909,550 5307 Funding (39,749,760) (19,984,760) (28,928,200) (23,513,203) (52,448,964) Fuel 2,701,328 2,445,330 2,494,236 2,544,121 2,595,003 2,646,903 2,699,842 2,753,838 2,808,915 2,783,896 2,839,574 2,778,832 2,834,409 2,795,564 2,851,475 2,908,505 2,966,675 3,026,009 3,086,529 3,148,259 3,211,224 Total NPV 2017 Maintenance 4,301,640 4,005,652 4,085,765 4,167,481 4,250,830 4,335,847 4,422,564 4,511,015 4,601,235 4,593,207 4,685,071 4,633,944 4,726,623 4,703,437 4,797,506 4,893,456 4,991,325 5,091,152 5,192,975 5,296,834 5,402,771 197,767,021 148,893,605 16,940,408 6,450,982 6,580,001 6,711,602 6,845,834 6,982,750 7,122,405 7,264,853 12,406,340 7,377,103 14,756,695 7,412,776 13,439,333 7,499,001 20,761,222 7,801,961 7,958,000 8,117,160 8,279,504 8,445,094 8,613,995 Annual Cost/Savings (3,036,440) 692,045 705,886 720,004 734,404 749,092 764,074 779,355 (592,888) 992,091 (996,970) 1,294,534 (312,437) 1,560,084 (2,415,233) 1,623,111 1,655,573 1,688,685 1,722,459 1,756,908 1,792,046 Cumulative Cost/Savings(NPV) (3,036,440) (2,364,552) (1,699,186) (1,040,281) (387,773) 258,400 898,300 1,531,987 1,063,955 1,824,311 1,082,471 1,477,248 1,798,533 2,860,874 1,264,121 2,305,934 3,337,633 4,359,315 5,371,078 6,373,017 7,365,230 Diesel 40' 67 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 Diesel 45' 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 77 77 73 73 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 FCEB 40' 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 10% ZEB Purchase Requirement FCEB 45' 3 3 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Fuel Cell Option Buses 38,400,000 20,152,541 25,026,369 21,560,111 106,086,093 Contract Spares 1,152,000 604,576 750,791 646,803 3,182,583 5307 Funding (31,641,600) (16,605,694) (20,621,728) (17,765,531) (87,414,940) Fueling Station 10,000,000 6,341,209 Building Modification 1,500,000 Utility Upgrades 1,000,000 Fuel 2,701,328 3,098,545 3,160,516 3,223,726 3,288,201 3,353,965 3,421,044 3,489,465 3,559,254 3,742,654 3,817,507 4,049,521 4,130,512 4,253,610 4,338,682 4,425,456 4,513,965 4,604,245 4,696,329 4,790,256 4,886,061 Total NPV 2017 Maintenance 4,301,640 4,538,113 4,628,875 4,721,452 4,815,881 4,912,199 5,010,443 5,110,652 5,212,865 5,366,312 5,473,638 5,651,348 5,764,375 5,897,410 6,015,359 6,135,666 6,258,379 6,383,547 6,511,218 6,641,442 6,774,271 260,023,506 195,172,949 27,413,368 7,636,657 7,789,391 7,945,178 8,104,082 8,266,164 8,431,487 8,600,117 12,923,542 9,108,966 14,446,577 9,700,869 20,677,478 10,151,021 32,207,776 10,561,122 10,772,344 10,987,791 11,207,547 11,431,698 11,660,332 Annual Cost/Savings (13,509,400) (493,631) (503,503) (513,573) (523,845) (534,322) (545,008) (555,908) (1,110,091) (739,772) (686,852) (993,559) (7,550,583) (1,091,935) (13,861,786) (1,136,050) (1,158,771) (1,181,946) (1,205,585) (1,229,697) (1,254,291) Cumulative Cost/Savings(NPV) (13,509,400) (13,988,653) (14,463,253) (14,933,245) (15,398,675) (15,859,585) (16,316,021) (16,768,025) (17,644,341) (18,211,314) (18,722,396) (19,440,165) (24,735,991) (25,479,546) (34,643,820) (35,373,007) (36,095,114) (36,810,211) (37,518,365) (38,219,644) (38,914,114)
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NREL Battery-Electric Evaluations

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Electric Bus Fuel Cost?

Demand Metered time of use (TOU) rates Currently under temporary tariff programs CPUC Resolutions Future Electric Bus Charging Rates Uncertain

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Over 43% of Bill is Demand Charges

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One Bus - Fast Charge 500kW Miles/Month 4000 kWh/mile 2.5 Demand Charge Max Peak 500 kW @ $19.04 $9,520.00 Max Part Peak 500 kW @ $4.42 $2,210.00 Max Demand 500 kW @ $14.38 $7,190.00 Total Demand Charges $18,920.00 Energy Charge Peak 3333 kWh @ $0.16233 $541.05 Part Peak 3333 kWh @ $0.10893 $363.06 Off peak 3333 kWh @ $0.07397 $246.54 Total Electricity Charges $1,150.65 Total $20,070.65 Per Mile $5.02

Assumptions: 4,000 miles/month/bus 2.5 kWh/mile 500 kW Fast Charging Charging Equally Distributed Throughout Demand Period

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$1 $2 $3 $4 $5

1 6 12 7 13 18 19

Electricity Cost per Mile Number of Buses

500kWh Fast Charge Buses

PG&E E19S Demand Metered TOU Service

Charging Periods Equally Distributed – Peak, Partial Peak, and Off Peak

2nd Charger 3rd Charger 4th Charger

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100kWh Slow Charge Buses

PG&E E19S Demand Metered TOU Service

Assuming One Charger for Each Bus

$1 $2 PEAK = $1.24/mile PARTIAL PEAK = $.74/mile OFF PEAK = $.54/mile

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Current Deal - SCE

CPUC Resolution E-4514

SoCal Edison public agency electric bus customers Electric rate schedule TOU-GS-1 Summer Peak $.40 kWh ($1.00/mile) Winter Off Peak $.10 kWh ($.25/mile) Expires December 18, 2015

EV-6 Rate is being developed Final and interim rates/kWh Unknown

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Current Deal – PG&E

CPUC Resolution E-4628

PG&E public agency electric bus customers Electric rate schedule A-1 Option B Summer Peak $.248 kWh ($.62/mile) Winter Off Peak $.149 kWh ($.37/mile) Three year event triggered Application period expires September 30, 2016

Final and interim rates/kWh Unknown

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The Problem

CPUC resolutions were intended for early adoption only Investor-owned utilities need to recover costs High infrastructure costs need to be offset by low fuel costs Can demand costs be socialized?

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Stakeholders

California Energy Commission California Public Utilities Commission California Air Resources Board Public Transit Agencies Investor-Owned Utilities People Who Breathe

Conversation needs to happen now!

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caltransit.org/advocacy/key-issues/zero-emission-bus-regulation Steve Miller

Director of Maintenance

Golden Gate Transit smiller@goldengate.org

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/bus/bus.htm