LIFE AgriAdapt Vulnerability assessment in Southern European pilot - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

SLIDE 1

With the support of:

LIFE AgriAdapt

Vulnerability assessment in Southern European pilot farms

• V. Sánchez, N. Metayer

, J. Domingo, L. García, S, Doublet, C. Wackerhagen

2nd International Conference ADAPTtoCLIMATE 24-25 June 2019 Heraklion, Crete island, Greece

SLIDE 2

With the support of:

AgriAdapt partnership

SLIDE 3

With the support of:

4 BASELINE REPORTS WITH AGRO CLIMATE GRIDS PER CLIMATE ZONE 4 BASELINE REPORTS WITH AGRO CLIMATE GRIDS PER CLIMATE ZONE COMPILATION OF SUSTAINABLE ADAPTATION MEASURES COMPILATION OF SUSTAINABLE ADAPTATION MEASURES 120 PILOT FARMS WITH DOMINANT AND MINOR FARMING PRACTICES. 120 PILOT FARMS WITH DOMINANT AND MINOR FARMING PRACTICES.

IN PRACTICE

ONE DECISION SUPPORTING TOOL FOR THE FARM VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ONE DECISION SUPPORTING TOOL FOR THE FARM VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

5 STEERING COMMITTEE BOARDS: FARMER UNIONS, COOPERATIVES, EXPERTS, RESEARCHERS, AGRONOMIC SCHOOLS, DECISION MAKERS, ETC. 5 STEERING COMMITTEE BOARDS: FARMER UNIONS, COOPERATIVES, EXPERTS, RESEARCHERS, AGRONOMIC SCHOOLS, DECISION MAKERS, ETC.

Life AgriAdapt

SLIDE 4

With the support of: Vulnerability unknown Awareness of Vulnerability, but no solutions identifjed Awareness of Vulnerability, solutions identifjed but no idea of their effjciency Awareness of Vulnerability, solutions identifjed and their effjciency (advantages and disadvantages) is quantifjed

2019 2017

… AND CLIMATE TRAJECTORIES

Hail Intense frost Erosion Drought Flooding Heat wave AGRIADAPT ROADMAP FOR ADAPTATION

CLIMATIC HAZARDS...

From vulnerability to adaptation… A learning process for farmers

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With the support of:

5

AGRIADAPT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Exposure Exposure Impact Impact

Vulnerability EXPOSURE

Frequency of climate stress (i.e., key climatic parameters)

The vulnerability level (or risk level) combine the probability of

• ccurrence of climate stress (exposure) and the extent of the

consequences (crop impact).

IMPACT OR SENSITIVITY

% of crop yield reduction experienced

VULNERABILITY = EXPOSURE X IMPACT

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With the support of:

6

AGRIADAPT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

6 6 12 18 24 30 36 41-50% 5 5 10 15 20 25 30 31- 40% 4 4 8 12 16 20 24 21-30% 3 3 6 9 12 15 18 11-20% 2 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 In s ig n ific a n t <5 % 6- 10% 11-15% 16-25% 26-30% Ma jor >3 % V e ryfre q u e n t(>5 %) R a re<1 % E X P O S U R E S E V E R IT YO FC O N S E Q U E N C E S(Y ie ldim p a c t% )

The assessment help to prioritize the level of vulnerability. No scientifjc unit to measure a risk. To assess the levels of Exposure and Sensitivity, qualitative evaluation trough rating scale is then required. AGRIADAPT VULNERABILITY MATRIX

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With the support of:

7

COMMON DECISION TOOL:

A MUL TISTEP APPROACH FROM THE AGRO CLIMATE ZONE TO FARM SCALE

• 1. Agro Climate Zone

The analysis provide a framework for analysis at the farm level: identifjed in a recent past period the strongly impacted years, main climate events,…

• 1. Agro Climate Zone

The analysis provide a framework for analysis at the farm level: identifjed in a recent past period the strongly impacted years, main climate events,…

• 2. Farm Scale

Once the farm is characterized, assessment of vulnerability of the farm’s crops and reduction of Near Future Farm vulnerability

• 2. Farm Scale

Once the farm is characterized, assessment of vulnerability of the farm’s crops and reduction of Near Future Farm vulnerability

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With the support of:

8

COMMON DECISION TOOL: RELEVANT POINTS

Crop yields: Regional scale (statistics): annual yield of the last 15 years Farm scale (average, minimum & maximum) Crop yields: Regional scale (statistics): annual yield of the last 15 years Farm scale (average, minimum & maximum) Climatic data : Climate daily observations (30 last years) for the Recent Past (RP) Climate daily projection (30 years) for the Near Future (NF) Climatic data : Climate daily observations (30 last years) for the Recent Past (RP) Climate daily projection (30 years) for the Near Future (NF) Farm interview: Agronomic, livestock, economic, climatic data Farm interview: Agronomic, livestock, economic, climatic data Vulnerability scoring: Qualitative (agronomic expertise & bibliography) and quantitative information Vulnerability scoring: Qualitative (agronomic expertise & bibliography) and quantitative information

COMMON DECISION TOOL COMMON DECISION TOOL

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With the support of:

9

ACZ TOOL

Agri4Cast Resources Portal Covering all the EU Member states and free access Climate observations available from 1975 to the last calendar year completed (25x25 km grid) Future daily weather data for Europe (25x25 km grid) for time horizon 2030, (SRES Scenario A1B, 3 GCM RCMs available). For pilot farms assessment, only one climate model (ETHZ-CLM-HadCM3Q0 model) was used in order to show the pilot farmers the impacts of climate change in a simplifjed way.

CLIMATE DATA

SLIDE 10

With the support of:

A g r i A d a p t - E C C A 2 0 1 7

AgriAdapt pilot farms Southern Region. Spain

Arable Tomat

• Vineyard

Fruits Dair y Beef Sheep Pilot Farms 6 6 7 1 6 5 1 Minimum size (ha UAA) 11 15 4 87 232 Average size (ha UAA) 146 138 24 156 780 980 Maximum size (ha UAA) 400 230 130 230 1715

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With the support of:

Yield variability

Barley – Valladolid (Spain)

Solagro from Agri4Cast

SOFT WHEAT Yields 1990 - 2015

1990 2068,00 1991 1819,00 1992 175,00 1993 4011,00 1994 2993,25 1995 1428,00 1996 3044,67 1997 1808,87 1998 2750,00 1999 2778,00 2000 4183,36 2001 1716,46 2002 1611,27 2003 2766,08 2004 2913,75 2005 1258,50 2006 2119,25 2007 3609,92 2008 4139,00 2009 1618,07 2010 2870,00 2011 2954,00 2012 2023,00 2013 3848,00 2014 2240,00 2015 2470,00

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Rainfall & hot days - Observed

Nb of days >30°C. 01/05 & 30/06 Rainfall 01/05 & 30/06

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With the support of:

Yield variability

Barley – Valladolid (Spain)

Solagro from Agri4Cast

Yields 1990 - 2015

1990 2068,00 1991 1819,00 1992 175,00 1993 4011,00 1994 2993,25 1995 1428,00 1996 3044,67 1997 1808,87 1998 2750,00 1999 2778,00 2000 4183,36 2001 1716,46 2002 1611,27 2003 2766,08 2004 2913,75 2005 1258,50 2006 2119,25 2007 3609,92 2008 4139,00 2009 1618,07 2010 2870,00 2011 2954,00 2012 2023,00 2013 3848,00 2014 2240,00 2015 2470,00

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Rainfall & hot days - Observed

Nb of days >30°C. 01/05 & 30/06 Rainfall 01/05 & 30/06

SLIDE 13

With the support of:

Agro Climate Indicators (ACIs)

Automatic calculation of 70 different ACIs

• General (x13): rainfall, temperatures, etc.
• Fodder (x11): date for grass regrowth, date for 1st

grazing , etc.

• Cereal crops (x12): end of cycle thermal and hydric

stress, etc.

• Summer crops (x9) : temperatures > 32°C, summer

hydric deficit, etc.

• Vineyards (x13): date of late frost, Huglin index, etc
• Rapeseed (x4), Field tomatoes (x5), Field peas (x1)
• Irrigation (x2): winter reload, etc.
• Livestock (x3): Temperature-Humidity Index, etc.
• 3
• 2

5

• 2
• 1

5

• 1
• 5

1 9 8 7 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 9 2 1 2 3 2 5 2 7 2 9 2 1 1 2 1 3 2 1 5 2 1 8 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 6 2 2 8 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 4 2 3 6 2 3 8 2 4 2 4 2 2 4 4 2 4 6 R a in fa ll -E T P (m m )

A C I -C 3

• H

y d ric d e fic it (Ma y to Ju n e )

• 3
• 2

5

• 2
• 1

5

• 1
• 5

1 9 8 7 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 9 2 1 2 3 2 5 2 7 2 9 2 1 1 2 1 3 2 1 5 2 1 8 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 6 2 2 8 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 4 2 3 6 2 3 8 2 4 2 4 2 2 4 4 2 4 6 R a in fa ll -E T P (m m )

A C I -C 3

• H

y d ric d e fic it (Ma y to Ju n e )

5 1 1 5 2 2 5 3 3 5 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 9 2 1 2 3 2 5 2 7 2 9 2 1 1 2 1 3 2 1 5 2 1 8 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 6 2 2 8 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 4 2 3 6 2 3 8 2 4 2 4 2 2 4 4 2 4 6 N u m b e rofd a y sp e ry e a r

A C I-M1-H e a ts tre s sC

• rn

(T x>3 2 °C0 1

6to3

9 )

5 1 1 5 2 2 5 3 3 5 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 9 2 1 2 3 2 5 2 7 2 9 2 1 1 2 1 3 2 1 5 2 1 8 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 6 2 2 8 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 4 2 3 6 2 3 8 2 4 2 4 2 2 4 4 2 4 6 N u m b e rofd a y sp e ry e a r

A C I-M1-H e a ts tre s sC

• rn

(T x>3 2 ° C0 1

6to3

9 )

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With the support of:

ACI : Cereal crops

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 R P NF R P NF R P NF R P NF R P NF E S T R E MA D UR A ( Mé r id a ) E S T R E MA D UR A ( P la s e n c ia ) V A L E NC IA ( R e q ue n a ) C A S T IL E A ND LE ON ( Me d in a de l Ca m p

• )

C A NT A B R IA ( S a n ta n d e r) S P A IN *

A C I -C 1

• H

e a t s tre s s

• C

e re a ls (T x > 3 ° C 1 5 /0 4 to 1 5 /0 7 )

Qu a rt ile 1 MI N Me d ia n MA X Qu a rt ile 3

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With the support of:

ACI Livestock

2 4 6 8 1 1 2 R P NF R P NF R P NF R P NF R P NF E S T R E MA D UR A (Mé r id a ) E S T R E MA D UR A (P la s e n c ia ) V A L E NC IA (R e q ue n a ) C A S T IL E A ND LE ON (Me d in a de l Ca m p

• )

C A NT A BR IA (S a n ta n d e r) S P A IN *

A C I -A 1

• T

H I Mod e ra te s e v e re s tre s s

Qu a rt ile 1 MI N Me d ia n MA X Qu a rt ile 3

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With the support of:

ACI Vineyard

7 9 1 1 1 3 1 5 1 7 1 9 2 1 2 3 R P NF R P NF R P NF R P NF R P NF E S T R E MA D UR A ( Mé r id a ) E S T R E MA D UR A ( P la s e n c ia ) V A L E NC IA ( R e q ue n a ) C A S T IL E A ND LE ON ( Me d in a de l Ca m p

• )

C A NT A B R IA ( S a n ta n d e r) S P A IN

A C I -V 2

• C
• ld

N ig h t In d e x (T n

• S

e p te m b e r)

Qu a rt ile 1 MI N Me d ia n MA X Qu a rt ile 3

SLIDE 17

With the support of:

Climate projections

3 %

• 2

5 % 7 % 1 1 % 5 %

• 4

%

• 1

7 %

• 1

% 1 % 5 5 % 1 %

• 2

9 % 3 % 1 %

• 1

00 %

• 8

0%

• 6

0%

• 4

0%

• 2

0% 0% 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 10 0%

S PAIN (extrem adure) - From R ecent Past to Near Future

2 % 2 % 6 1 % 9 % 8 % 6 %

• 1

%

• 1

%

• 5

%

• 8

7 % 6 % 3 7 % 1 % 1 9 % 1 7 % 1 7 %

• 1

00 %

• 8

0%

• 6

0%

• 4

0%

• 2

0% 0% 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 10 0%

S PAIN (C astilla y Léon) -From R ecent Past to Near Future

SLIDE 18

With the support of:

How to disseminate adaptation? Climate services actors

Module 1 Farm vulnerability quiz Module 1 Farm vulnerability quiz Module 2 Yield & Climate Module 2 Yield & Climate Module 3 Sustainable adaptation measures Module 3 Sustainable adaptation measures

AgriAdapt Webtool for Adaptation AgriAdapt Webtool for Adaptation

SLIDE 19

With the support of:

STRENGTHS

• Adaptation options already in

place

• Agricultural insurance
• Varieties adapted to CC
• High professionalized crops

(horts)

• Diversifjed crops, extensive

agroforestry systems. Agroecology.

WEAKNESSES

• Water: long-term availability?

Defjcit irrigation necessary

• High dependence on

Monoculture

• Insuffjcient management of

Grasslands

OPPORTUNITIES

Higher productivity in temperature- limited areas if water is ensured Increased pasture production in autumn/winter due to increased temperature

• Possibility for new crops

through warmer winters

THREATS: limits for some crops

• Heat waves in summer
• Less rainfall in Winter-spring
• Hydric défjcit <-300 mm in

Spring

• Increase in days with Tª

Max>30ºC in April and May and days >35-38ºC in summer

SOUTHERN CLIMATE ZONE SWOT

SLIDE 20

With the support of:

Farm vulnerability components C e re a l c r

• p

s

S O IL & F a rm in g p r a c tic e s (s

• il

m a n a g e m e n t, s

• w

in g d a te , d e n s ity , … ) Ma rk e t C r

• p

s y s t e m V a rie tie s W a te r d e p e n d e n c y In s u r a n c e P

• lic

ie s

C e re a l c r

• p

s

S O IL & F a rm in g p r a c tic e s (s

• il

m a n a g e m e n t, s

• w

in g d a te , d e n s ity , … ) Ma rk e t C r

• p

s y s te m V a rie tie s W a te r d e p e n d e n c y In s u r a n c e P

• lic

ie s

A n im a ls

A n im a l W e lfa re Ma rk e t F

• d

d e r s y s te m & c

• n

c e n tr a te s W a te r d e p e n d e n c y H e rd m a n a g e m e n t

• B

r e e d s

• R

e n e w a l r a t e

• S

t

• c

k in g r a te

• R

a tion

• B

irth s tr a te g y

In s u r a n c e

A n im a ls

A n im a l W e lfa re Ma rk e t F

• d

d e r s y s t e m & c

• n

c e n tr a te s W a te r d e p e n d e n c y H e rd m a n a g e m e n t

• B

r e e d s

• R

e n e w a l r a te

• S

t

• c

k in g r a te

• R

a tion

• B

irth s tr a te g y

In s u r a n c e

V in e y a rd s / O rc h a rd s

S

• il

m a n a g e m e n t Ma rk e t Ma n a g e m e n t p r a c tic e s

• D

e n s ity

• P

ru n in g

• N

e ts

• N

e w p la n ta tio n P la n t a n d g r a p e v a rie tie s W a te r d e p e n d e n c y

Processing

In s u r a n c e

V in e y a rd s / O rc h a rd s

S

• il

m a n a g e m e n t Ma rk e t Ma n a g e m e n t p r a c tic e s

• D

e n s ity

• P

ru n in g

• N

e ts

• N

e w p la n ta tio n P la n t a n d g r a p e v a rie tie s W a te r d e p e n d e n c y

Processing

In s u r a n c e

SLIDE 21

With the support of:

Sustainable adaptation: examples

SLIDE 22

With the support of:

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ARABLE CROPS

• Create a varietal bouquet
• Diversify crops and rotations to avoid main climate stress
• Improve soils: OM & structure, no bare soil
• Comfort or Defjcit irrigation
• Hedgerow and fmower strips plantations

SLIDE 23

With the support of:

RECCOMENDATIONS FOR VINEYARDS

• Use traditional varieties
• Focus on Quality (wine production) and

not quantity

• Prune in green to balance leaf surface

and number of bunches

• Improve soils: OM, Structure, no bare

soils

SLIDE 24

With the support of:

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ANIMALS

• DAIRY:
• Fodder autonomy and diversifjcation.
• Balance farmland surface and number of

animals.

• Infrastructures designed to ensure passive

ventilation

• Active ventilation systems.
• Appropriate density of animals in buildings
• EXTENSIVE BEEF (DEHESAS)
• Grazing management plans to increase

quantity and quality of pasture

• Native seeds sowing for pasture improvement
• Keyline design to maximize benefjcial use of

water resources

SLIDE 25

With the support of:

AgriAdapt “Training Pack”

Downloadable from www.agriadapt.eu “Self service” of digital resources about farming adaptation

• Life AgriAdapt, Vulnerability context in EU and per

climate zone, methodology for farm level assessment, sustainable adaptation

• Cases studies: soft wheat, grasslands, rapeseed,

maize, field peas, vineyards, livestock buildings

Video clips

• Experts interviews
• Pilot farms adaptation strategy

Baseline report

Baseline report Case studies Videoclips Posters

FINAL CONFERENCE IN MADRID NOVEMBER 2019. WORKSHOPS

SLIDE 26

With the support of:

A g r i A d a p t - E C C A 2 0 1 7

Some conclusions

• The agrarian practices

related to the soil are a key for adaptation at all the crops and all the regions. Stop looking at the sky to look at the soil

• Adaptation is effjcient at farm level, resilience depends not
• nly con climate expected projection but even on farming

practices, .

SLIDE 27

With the support of:

Thanks for your attention