Cli limat mate e change nge and d conseq sequences uences in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oyunmunkh Byambaa1, Clemens Simmer1, Soninkhishig Nergui2

1Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Germany 2 Botany Department, National University of Mongolia, Mongolia

Cli limat mate e change nge and d conseq sequences uences in Bulgan gan catch tchment ment, , West stern rn Mongoli

• lia

Science and policy futures in the Gobi rangelands International workshop 18 -19 September 2014

WATERCOPE project

 Support national research capacity and

policy to cope with dwindling water resources and intensifying land use in the transborder Altay-Dzungarian region

• f Mongolia and China
• Resource dependent
• Local knowledge about

characteristics of change

• Complain about climate change
• Question from us

“How climate change will impact on river water level and pasture in the future”

Difference of instrumental data and perception

 station data represents specific

parameters in valley

 herders provide personal

feeling of mixed parameters and spatial data due to their seasonal movements

Goal and objectives

To understand effect of global warming on local climate variability and change

• Instrumental data analysis
• Use of local people’s perception as key
• to learn more
• To select appropriate climate model for

future scenarios

• to explain future changes in easy way

Previous studies: Local people’s knowledge about climate change

Stud tudy y area ea

 Altay-Dzungarian region  Altitude:

• max- 4087 m
• mean – 2300 m

 Characterization:

• High mountains
• Arid/ semi desert
• Glacier
• Permafrost
• River originates from snow

and ice melting (50-70%) and rainfall 5-10%

Questionnaire on local knowledge about hydro-climate change

• Stratified random sampling
• herders/ farmers above 40 age
• 10 herders/farmers per bag (town)
• 5 bags per soum (region)
• Questionnaires
• 100 local people
• 7 local government officers
• Structure of questionnaire
• A. Climate change
• B. Water resource change
• C. Weather forecast service

Climate change in Bulgan catchment

• 3
• 2.5
• 2
• 1.5
• 1
• 0.5

0.5 1 1.5 2 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Difference from 1977-2011, ºC

Annual mean temperature change in high mountainous area

• 3
• 2.5
• 2
• 1.5
• 1
• 0.5

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Difference from 1963-2011, ºC

Annual mean temperature in Gobi desert area

Duchinjil station, 1951 m Baitag station, 1181 m

y = 0.6748x + 60.15 R² = 0.0779 50 100 150 200 250 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 mm

Annual mean precipitation at Baitag station

y = 0.9565x + 112.2 R² = 0.086 50 100 150 200 250 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 mm

Annual mean precipitation at Duchinjil station

Climate indices

Changes in air temperature and precipitation

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec P, mm

Months

Precipitation at Duchinjil station

1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2011

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec P, mm

Months

Preciptation at Baitag station

1963-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2011

Changes in seasons

• 0.6
• 0.4
• 0.2

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Difference from 1963-2011, m/s

Windspeed at Baitag station

• 1
• 0.8
• 0.6
• 0.4
• 0.2

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Difference from 1977-2011, m/s

Windspeed at Duchinjil station

Extreme events

Discussion and Conclusion

 Perception about air temperature can be caused by wind  Increase of wind speed – part of variability  Summer rain delay in Gobi Desert (A.Marin)  More drought than previous decades

Thank you for attention