Lets Talk Transport Conference Local Link Donegal 25 th November - - PDF document

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Let’s Talk Transport Conference

Local Link Donegal 25th November 2016 Check against Delivery Introduction Very good morning. It is great to be back in Donegal and so I want to thank the Local Link Donegal for the opportunity to be able to speak here today and particularly to Fiona for the invite. At Glenties at the MacGill Summer School I saw how open and interesting conversations tend to be in this part of the country so I am looking forward to round two of this debate. Let me be clear from the outset. I am not a transport expert. I am not an economist. But these days I seem to spend a lot of my time talking to both. For reference, I myself grew up in a rural location on the outskirts of Limerick but have lived in many

• ther bigger cities, not least our own Dublin so I have experienced both sides so to speak.

This morning, I’d like to discuss the challenges Ireland faces in terms of population growth, the challenges facing rural Ireland and how I believe part of the solution is a more balanced regional development policy, firstly focused on regional cities. I’d like to mention some international trends in living choices and transport and, to round up will consider a bit how Donegal as an example of a rural county might fit into all of this. There are no clear answers but we can take that subject up more in the Q&A. I should however point out that the views I express are personal and not to be taken as reflective of the views of any organisation for whom I work or have worked, especially the European Investment Bank. Background With Brexit, Trump and other international economic factors, we have no good reason to be complacent about the future. Despite underlying growth of some 5% in the Irish economy (which puts us in a comparatively healthy position compared to many other EU countries), to simply assume that the good times and revenues will continue as they have been in recent years would be a very significant mistake. We see slowdown of our economy in a number of leading indicators already. Ireland also has considerable infrastructure deficits. This will require major spending on capital

• infrastructure. Finding capacity to do that should mean less current spending not more and more

sensible and wise spending on infrastructure. Then there are global changes to be taken into account which made the choices a little harder. These include advances in technology, eCommerce, transformation of car industry, climate change, growth of urbanisation, ageing populations, shifting populations and growth of cities all of which will profoundly change how we live our lives into the future (but the not too distant future). I am not sure having looked at some of the debate at the Oireachtas committee on transport this week that we are ready at a political level to make the correct choices to deal with urbanisation

2 | P a g e trends and transport patterns so it is all the more important to have events like this and to continue the debate. Population Projections Because since the post Famine drop, we have had broadly steady population growth, I think we have trouble in Ireland imagining a world much different than today. Right now, we have a population of just under 5 million. Probably very few people have realised that even the CSO’s own predictions are that we will see in just 30 years an increase in our population equal more or less to the population of Dublin, that is another 1.7 million people. So think of that this way, I graduated from UCD 30 years ago. In the same length of time, we’ll have to fit another Dublin onto our part of the island, or over ten times the population of Donegal. This is happening at an accelerating pace too. Subtract 1.7 million from our population, and you have to go back to the early 70’s to find a level of just over 3 million. More, interestingly, it was also the same level more or less in 1916 so much of our thinking has been conditioned by stability of population and I am not sure we’ve figured out how to plan for the type of growth we’re experiencing since joining the EU. The helpful thing though about this high level of change is you can stop thinking about one bus route, one village etc. as the world as we know will be so significantly different that these issues are not relevant any more to the big picture. There is now a real chance to formulate a new vision for our country and prioritise the implementation of the right measures to accommodate this growth if we can have the debate at the right level. Current versus Capital When faced with the choice of more current spending or serious capital investment, I think we really should be looking at the latter. I know people were surprised when I intervened in the recent debate on public pay but I felt the debate was not properly considering all of the alternatives and in particular what we might be losing by agreeing to increase current spending on salaries even by what seem like relatively small amounts, but as they are recurring can take up the money for larger projects pretty quickly. We have a capital budget of only 4-4.5 billion a year which puts us towards the bottom of the EU

• league. Compare that 4 billion to the scale of our public sector pay and pension bill for example

approaches €20 billion, our social welfare supports cost €19.5bn. Avoiding the next 10% increase on each would double what we invest in our future. Also, with government interest rates at historical levels, if we cannot find a way to fix some of the big problems now, when will we ever do so? I commend Anne Graham for calling it like it is two days ago and telling the Oireachtas transport committee that transport needs more funding and quickly – and I know she was not talking about bus driver’s salaries! A really interesting and important exercise would be to look at what could be done if we doubled

• ur capital spend so that we know what we are missing each year. Even €3 billion might seem like a

lot of money but it’s only ten years of the planned increase in current spending for the implementation of the LRA.

3 | P a g e I am left to wonder what would make us mature enough as a nation to put aside short term gain in current spending for those long term prizes. Urban Areas as Drivers of Creativity And as we grapple with this challenge the world is changing all around us. The reality is that increasing numbers of younger millennials much more so than their parents are demanding a downtown urban lifestyle where they see opportunity and a more appealing lifestyle to their tastes. They are certainly rejecting the desire to live in the suburbs and perhaps even to live full time in rural Ireland. Good companies are recognising that and moving downtown too to attract the best

• talent. Some of their parents are even contemplating now moving to these more vibrant

neighbourhoods to build their own lives but in the proximity of their kids already there. Of course there are, and will be those who choose a rural lifestyle over the urban and we also have to take them into our planning. But at least it would be a huge step forward in our thinking were we to recognise that the model of suburbia we continue to be so keen on building is a bad compromise between the two. Car dependency bad and all as it is when you are shuttling kids around to lots of post school activities and commuting to work, becomes even worse when you are seventy or eighty and cannot get down the street for a pint or a chat at the local shop as you need to get into a car and it is too far to walk. On the other hand, at a more macro level, with advanced economies like ours much more dependent on innovation and services, it is harder to get idea-hopping and innovation where workforces do not mix with one another. Therefore, it is in our interest to have clusters build up. As it is harder to get sustainable growth where single industries dominate activity we would also like larger clusters so the more entrepreneurial we can make our environment the better. Open conversation gives rise to new ideas. Government should therefore encourage and actually be going against all we probably hold dear in Ireland in the public debate – somewhat nostalgic views of a rural Ireland which has disappeared

• anyway. It should direct policy to actually encourage people to live in modestly sized city centre

urban units for all of the reasons above. It should build transport solutions for this too, in advance rather than playing catch up. We continue to encourage larger and larger suburban housing sprawl and still do strip development in rural areas which are expensive to service (and not particularly fun to live in when commutes are taking into account). If instead we spent the money on creating fantastic public realm and efficient public transport in urban areas and rural towns and to connect larger let’s call them rural towns to each other, we could lead in creating the right environment to have a successful sustainable 21st Century economic growth model. The need to balance Dublin Some of you may also be aware of a number of speeches I delivered recently where I called for the building of a counterbalance along the Western coast by connecting its centre to Dublin with a rapid transit option.

4 | P a g e We are now far too reliant on Dublin and are allowing rural Ireland to fall further behind – which for simplicity is pretty much is the entire country outside the Pale! And Dublin itself is not working well. It is now regarded as one of the top ten most congested cities in the world –in bad company with Mexico City, Istanbul and Rio de Janeiro. Drivers having a 30 minute commute lose 96 hours a year to traffic jams (and with them often small children on the way to the crèche too). That’s less time with family. Less time at work. And a whole load of stress that no one needs. What’s more, congestion increases pollution. Today 22% of all CO2 emissions globally come from cars. A new region? We urgently need to address the excessive concentration of much of our population in one location. There is now clearly a need for the creation of other higher density, properly serviced urban areas. I have asked should we be prioritising an attractive Western Economic Corridor involving Cork, Limerick and Galway? With cities like Galway, Cork and Limerick operating much better than today, their surrounding hinterlands will be able to do much better too. I know it is a tough message to deliver here in Donegal, but if we are to subsidise anything as a priority, it should be first encouraging people to settle in more desirable diverse urban areas. This would allow us to bring down the per capita costs of providing services (even if it is to the extra 1.7 million). Rather than continuing inefficient distribution of population across the country, that would then free up resources to help resource those who for valid reasons live in rural areas. This is not intended to be divisive. But the question I would ask is as you plan your own strategic plans do you think that over those 30 years, Donegal will keep up the same % of the total population

• r to have its population stay at least constant in absolute terms or indeed continue to fall in
• population. These are key questions in terms of building forward.

Only because I know the city with its new governance is up for it, I have suggested the creation of a pilot in ideally geographically located Limerick-Ennis corridor to begin that journey.

5 | P a g e So what might that pilot involve. Well firstly, government has many levers to pull to encourage growth in a particular location. It can build quality housing, health and educational services, improve public transport options and have the best public realm and cultural facilities there in priority to

• ther areas so it becomes known as a place without shortages and spiralling costs.

It is not to say other cities would not get these too in time but by going for a big bang approach in

• ne spot first, you can create the necessary momentum, prove the approach and more on. And

Government can add some punch to the process by actively moving third-level places and non- critical government services there from the capital. If you improve the connectivity of that new city to others, everyone gains as services centrally located become closer to everyone than Dublin is

• today. Take a look at this map with one road added and see just how different the world looks with

places like Tralee, Cork, Waterford, Portlaoise, Galway, Ennis all within one hour of that city. Since it is hard to speed up travel on the roads, you need to do something to see if you can do something to speed up the connectivity of this new hub and Dublin.

6 | P a g e At an event in Limerick last week I put forward a suggestion for the creation of a high speed railway linking Dublin to Limerick. By doing so we would literally make the country smaller allowing a travel time of 1hr between Dublin and Limerick and knocking almost an hour off the travel time from Cork to Dublin (albeit they would have to change at Limerick junction!) and reducing times to Galway too. The Galway train could then run only between Galway and Portarlington as a shuttle rather than having to go all the way to Dublin. Cars – the demons of transportation? One of the major issues in Ireland is that faced with stagnating national populations and declining rural populations, we shut down much of our rail system and became totally reliant on road transport. Now, it’s easy to demonize the car. There are two billion in the world today: equivalent to the populations of China and Europe combined. Also, it is impossible to imagine having people able to live in Donegal without cars given the challenges of the low density to developing a network of public transport. But the problem is not so much cars themselves. It’s how we use them: individually. Next time you stop in traffic, look at the cars to your right or left. The chances are they’ll have just one person in them: the driver. When you drive alone, you’re in good company. Sadly, that’s just 4% of the problem, because cars sit idle 96% of the time! As a result, up to a fifth of the land in some cities is used to store these hunks of steel. Not homes or schools or parks—but parking spots and parking lots. In the US, there are eight parking spots for every car, covering an area 12 times the size of New York City. Here in Donegal that might seem less of an issue as there is more space but it is still true that considerable resources are devoted to cars and car-parking. There is a tremendous opportunity cost to parking, though it’s something we often don’t count. It’s space that could otherwise be used for bike lanes or more affordable housing. But, today, in most cities and towns, parking is encouraged not discouraged. I am sure that Donegal is like other parts of

7 | P a g e the country I know better where the normal retailers lobbying is to make sure parking is available and free. New homes and offices need to have a minimum number of parking lots: space that may not be needed and only increases costs. This is the insanity of the way we design cities today. People are pushed into car ownership by design—urban design. There is a desire as we build our housing to allow people to park their car at their front door or even inside the garage directly. Even in a city with great public transit like New York … the subway doesn’t get to everyone’s front door. The haphazard nature of today’s transportation system means that too many people have no option but to drive themselves.

The Uber model

It has been well reported that I have been doing some work with Uber over recent months. They have become a willing participant in the Limerick model with over 200 people working in the office down town – of whom over 75% do not own a car but work play and live within walking distance mainly of the office as rents are still affordable in the city centre area. The company was founded on the idea that you could push a button on your smartphone and have a car turn up. It was only once Uber got going—and ridesharing took off—that the company began to understand that today’s transportation status quo is insufficient, inefficient and unequal. Uber’s world is a world where more people share rides to get to a destination where they then take public transit. The objective for cities should be to prioritise providing an affordable and reliable world where individual car ownership is no longer a desirable objective. The following slides demonstrate how quickly and extensively Uber’s New York catchment has grown in the short number of years since it began to operate in the city and one can imagine how much more differently people now move around the city in 2016 compared to 2012.

8 | P a g e We can see how ridesharing services can reliably serve every corner of a city—including the parts that other means of transportation cannot reach. In this New York, push a button and the average ride is less than 10 minutes away. By comparison, in Dublin yesterday, it took me over 20 minutes for an Uber car to arrive to take me to the airport, and I live 10 minutes’ walk from Heuston Station. But I did not want to talk as the bus from there takes over an hour at times to get to the airport as it stops all over town. What happens in other cities is we see if your train or subway or bus doesn’t get you all the way home, Uber will take you that last mile but the public transport option has to be efficient. By complementing existing transit systems, their reach is extended at no extra cost to the taxpayer which makes it possible for people not living within walking distance of the bus stop to dispense with

• wning a car and save in an Irish context between 4,000 and 5,000 euros of after tax income a year.

Uber is already seeing attitudes to individual car ownership begin to change. Because when people are given an affordable, reliable alternative they’re happy to take it. In America, 10% percent of Uber riders under 30 say that they’ve either given up their car or are no longer planning to buy one. Another model to be aware of is the GoCar car rental concept which allows you to book a car online

• r on your phone and off you go – perhaps only for an hour or two to run and buy the groceries if

they cannot be delivered!

9 | P a g e What I look forward to today and into the future is a debate about how these type of ideas might be rolled out and adapted to our thinking about getting around all of Ireland. Can you imagine how such a model might have helped me on my trip to Donegal? I would not certainly have been as reliant on Fiona’s generosity in organising a taxi for me from an airport an hour away. Perhaps a train to Sligo might have been easier if I were able to identify and share a ride with other people. In fact it is now believed that many children living in cities today will simply never learn to drive when they’re older. We need all of our regional and rural towns especially those who are reliant on tourism to come up with working models to allow those people to come visit or come to work too. Transferring these ideas to the Irish Transport situation Let’s consider Donegal for a moment. In 2009 (latest RSA figures), there were 59,489 cars registered in County Donegal compared to 10 years previous when there were 36,851 registered. At the time there was a population of 160,000. Imagine how considerably differently you would look at the challenges of getting people from A to B

• r from C to D, if even 25% of those 59,489 cars could join your Donegal transport fleet, rather than

the 130 or so current vehicles in the fleet which have taken such great efforts to secure. Imagine what would happen if we could do that across the country. It is not about competing with taxis for the existing rides. It is about convincing people who use their cars for 4% of the time that they can get rid of them as there is a viable other alternative. It is about convincing and facilitating the

• thers to use their car much more as a way to supplement their incomes.

In practice in Ireland, it is about finding a better way to unlock the blockages and open up the hackney market which can operate alongside taxis who can be hailed in the street and operate from

• ranks. And in an Irish context, being frank, it is about coming up with a more sophisticated model to

provide a service for mobility challenged riders than requiring all new licences to be wheelchair compatible. This presents a Challenge for Rural Ireland But suggestions like new motorways and a high speed train are fine for the south and west. It still begs a serious question for areas like Sligo/Leitrim/Donegal - what would these changes mean? The economic impact on Donegal through emigration has been laid bare in statistics. According to the 1841 Census, County Donegal had a population of 296,000 people. Current population is 159,000 with a size of 4,861 km² a Density of 32.7. Looking at population statistics we see that 20% of Donegal’s population is located in three relatively small towns – Letterkenny, Buncrana and Ballybofey. The rest of the county is made up of even smaller towns with an average population of 1,500 inhabitants. With a new approach, what opportunities might open up and what challenges might they bring? If you look at the next slide you will see that while the rest of the country fits within the hinterland of

• ur new urban centres, this part of the country continues to be remote.

10 | P a g e What I would suggest is that the new growth both in terms of population and economic strength could help fund our efforts in parallel to deal with the separate problems of those who choose not to live in those cities, oftentimes not so much by choice but perhaps because that is where their jobs are (think farmers, fishermen, tourism sector workers), because they choose to care for a relative who lives there or perhaps out of a sense of duty to serve others whose own livelihoods require them to work in rural areas (think health sector workers, teachers, guards, shop-keepers). I spoke last night about whether Donegal with its amazing scenery and friendly people could become a much more interesting and desirable place for the growing population of retirees.

11 | P a g e By 2046, some 1.4 million people will be aged over 65 compared with 530,000 today and if you do not have to be near a city centre for work, perhaps good living alternatives for yourself and fun locations for the grandkids to visit at the weekend might be a much more attractive option. Planning that would mean improving healthcare and leisure facilities or linking better with those facilities say in Derry, both of which would be major improvements for those living here too. It would mean redesigning life in the towns of Donegal to accommodate that. When it comes to other Ireland’s secondary towns, to be successful they must remodel themselves so that they will economically be able to “live” off these other national growth cities by better upselling new services, like intra-country tourism, food etc. which will help them from just becoming commuter towns. I know I risk never getting out of here safely but I feel still obliged to ask some hard truths raised by the current scenario. Are we ready here in this room in the heart of Donegal itself to ask honestly what are the right policy responses to 7000 of outward migration from Donegal? Are we willing to face up to the impacts of what is likely to be a continuing trend of de-population as globalisation, urbanisation and improved transport impact on our lifestyle choices? What should happen schools and roads in those areas? Before Brexit, Letterkenny was actually an example I used often of a town which is doing much better than for example a one-time counterpart Sligo, simply on account of its proximity to a larger more successful urban area – Derry. We may come back to it later in questions and answer session but the fall-out from Brexit raises some very fundamental questions for the model of living here in Donegal if the barriers go up between the country and its nearest economic engine. It is worth getting this right though. Get it right and not only do cities like Dublin prosper but many other towns of Ireland adjusting to this new model can prosper too. And I look forward to being able to come to Donegal and get around more easily without a car! Thank you for your attention. John A. Moran CEO and Founder, RHH International (a consulting and social entrepreneurship company)

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