Lets All Learn How to Fish To Sustain LT Economic Growth June 2018 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Lets All Learn How to Fish To Sustain LT Economic Growth June 2018 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 31, 2022 137 likes •443 views

Lets All Learn How to Fish To Sustain LT Economic Growth June 2018 Michael Falk, CFA, CRC CFA Institute Research Foundation FOUNDED IN 1965 MISSION TO PRODUCE RELEVANT HIGH- QUALITY PRACTITIONER-BASED RESEARCH CONTENT

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“Let’s All Learn How to Fish… To Sustain LT Economic Growth”

June 2018

Michael Falk, CFA, CRC

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CFA Institute Research Foundation

  • FOUNDED IN 1965
  • MISSION – TO PRODUCE RELEVANT HIGH-

QUALITY PRACTITIONER-BASED RESEARCH CONTENT FOR THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL

  • TYPES OF CONTENT
  • Monographs (… books)
  • Literature Reviews
  • Briefs (short content)
  • Workshop for the Practitioner
  • E-Courses
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Let’s All Learn How…

Today’s economic growth challenges will become greater in the future if only due to the world’s agedness, fertility levels and entitlement policies. However, those same challenges could be overcome with more thoughtful policies along with a culture of responsibility and appreciation. The book reconsiders what makes us “healthy, wealthy and wise,” and focuses

  • n how we might re-imagine health care, retirement and

education policies to usher in a new ERA of sustainable, long-term economic growth.

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Good policies have… both

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A little perspective…

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And, a little clarity…

Growth = % Δ Workers + % Δ Productivity

On the number of Workers Fertility Employment / Participation Net migration Retirement On the amount of Productivity Health Education / Skill relevancy Capital

  • … will the robots be our salvation?
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Workers will work longer So sayeth so many… … To solve their / our shortfalls

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Yes…

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BUT…

BLS Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate, > 16yrs, 1/85 – 6/18

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… NOT all workers are able

  • 27% of workers who are ≥ age 58 perform physically

demanding jobs that cause them to age faster than those with less physically demanding ones.

  • Another 18% perform jobs in difficult working conditions that

also place strains on their health.

  • … these “less capables” do NOT include “job-unables”
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Workers MAY work longer … To solve their / our shortfalls IFF they have:

  • 1. Healthy aging

&

  • 2. The requisite skills
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Let’s retire retirement (as we know it) Work saves us from three great evils: boredom, vice, and need.

Voltaire (1694–1778) Candide 1759

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What could work?

Got jobs Got Enough $$$

72+

How about compassion… 2 retirement ages

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Proper netting MATTERS

Social Security provides…

2014 data / September 2016 SS release

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Bigger / deeper pools are NECESSARY

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The e fu future of e of retir etiremen ent Three big ideas that could reshape the U.S. retirement system Russell Investments July 2015

“Super” solutions do exist

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A cure for health care The only way to keep your health is to eat what you don’t want, drink what you don’t like, and do what you’d rather not.

Mark Twain, Following the Equator, 1897

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Curing today’s sick care

Incent health

  • Personal, catastrophic

policies with HSAs

  • Free, required routine care;

improved “marker” discounts

  • 1 system, multi-faceted local

access, distant services …

  • Technology
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Palliative & hospice care

Atul Gawande “ . . . our decision making in medicine has failed so spectacularly that we have reached the point of actively inflicting harm on patients rather than confronting the subject of mortality”

  • EOL docs
  • Coverage limits beyond “xx” age
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Learn to learn (and never stop) Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world.

Nelson Mandela, speech given 16 July 2003

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GOODBYE…

  • To the bottom 5%... & HELLO $250,000
  • To the bottom 6-10%... & HELLO 0.87 GDP
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“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.” – Albert Einstein

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Why Fish?

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Demographics do NOT have to be destiny

better off worse off Children will be financially than their parents

33 35 16 48 34 21 43 54 61 67 36 55 65 41 Average Brazil Chile Venezuela Argentina Peru Mexico

Latin America

36 5 18 49 26 18 52 22 64 72 48 88 74 30 51 51 43 51 26 18 Average China India Malaysia Philippines Indonesia

  • S. Korea

Pakistan Australia Japan

Asia / Pacific

32 11 33 41 26 47 35 58 84 47 52 64 43 56

Average Nigeria

  • S. Africa

Uganda Senegal Kenya Ghana

Africa

59 19 58 61 53 68 66 85 29 48 34 31 34 25 15 14

Average Russia Germany Spain Poland U.K. Italy France

Europe

41 27 52 37 47 44 36 51 40 32 24 31

Average Israel Turkey Jordan Lebanon

  • Palest. Ter.

Middle East

62 60 64 30 32 27

Average U.S. Canada

North America

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GIVE A PERSON A FISH AND YOU FEED HIM OR HER FOR A DAY; TEACH A PERSON TO FISH AND YOU FEED HIM OR HER FOR A LIFETIME.

My paraphrase of the proverb attributed to MAIMONIDES (1135–1204)

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For a bit more on my Monograph… www.letsalllearnhowtofish.com Michael Falk, CFA, CRC ▪ mfalk@focusCgroup.com My “day job” is helping investment teams improve their investment philosophy, process and execution – their decision-making – and investment firms with their strategic planning. Twitter – @Msfalk