Labour Market Info and Analysis Labour Market Info and Analysis - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Labour Market Info and Analysis Labour Market Info and Analysis Systems

Port of Spain November 2011

Employment Trends I t ti l L b O i ti

Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends

International Labour Organization Geneva, Switzerland

Overview

• Labour Market Information and Analysis (LMIA)

systems:

– Definition & purpose – Components and levels – Sources of labour statistics – International examples and experience – Key Indicators of the Labour Market

• LMIA system development: key steps

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LMIA systems Definition and purpose I Definition and purpose I

Definition A network of institutions (persons) with agreed roles to produce and with agreed roles to produce and disseminate labour market information and analysis y

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LMIA systems Definition and purpose II Definition and purpose II

(F1) Responsible for labour market analysis (F1) Responsible for labour market analysis

• The Dutch Research Centre for Education and the

Labour Market (ROA) is a research institute of the M i h U i i S h l f B i d Maastricht University School of Business and Economics.

• Through its research the institute aims to improve

Through its research, the institute aims to improve the understanding of the relationship between education and the labour market; see: http://www roa unimaas nl/ http://www.roa.unimaas.nl/

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LMIA systems Definition and purpose III Definition and purpose III

(F2) Responsible for monitoring and (F2) Responsible for monitoring and reporting on employment and labour policies

• Skills Development Planning Unit (SDPU) in

South Africa’s Department of Labour; see: http://www.labour.gov.za/documents/useful- documents/skills-development/useful- documents/skills development/useful documents

• Detecting skill needs and geographical

( mismatches (e.g. LMIA at the provincial or municipal level: Differences between Trinidad and Tobago)

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g )

LMIA systems Definition and purpose IV Definition and purpose IV

(F3) Mechanism to exchange information or (F3) Mechanism to exchange information or coordinate different actors and institutions that produce and utilise labour market information and analysis

• Advisory Panel for Pakistan’s LMIA system,

see http://www lmis gov pk/Publications html see http://www.lmis.gov.pk/Publications.html

• For instance: Assessing labour market impact
• f national disasters (floods in Pakistan,

( , Thailand)

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LMIA systems Components and levels I Components and levels I

(C1) Collection and compilation of data and i f ti information

– Database with standard set of indicators such as the ILO’s Key Indicators of the Labour Market or the ILO s Key Indicators of the Labour Market or the MDG employment indicators

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LMIA systems Components and levels II Components and levels II

(C2) Analytical capacity and tools at three levels:

• Monitoring labour markets (SDPU South Africa)

Monitoring labour markets (SDPU, South Africa)

• Analyzing relationships between variables/indicators

(LMIA unit, Pakistan) Econometric models (ROA Netherlands)

• Econometric models (ROA, Netherlands)

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LMIA systems Components and levels III Components and levels III

(C3) Institutional arrangements and networks

– Memorandum of understanding with statistical Memorandum of understanding with statistical agency – Agreed role of LMIA system in monitoring national development plans – LMIA Advisory Panel

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LMIA systems and statistics

statistics labour statistics labour market information and analysis analysis

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Active and inactive population

Total population Total population P l i P l ti t Population

• f working age

Population not

• f working age

Economically active Economically inactive population population Employed Unemployed

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Employed Unemployed

LMIA systems Sources of labour statistics Sources of labour statistics

• Surveys of households (‘persons’)

Labour force survey – Labour force survey – Population census – Income and expenditure survey

• Surveys of establishments (‘companies’)

– Establishment survey of production – Employment and earnings survey – Occupational employment and vacancy survey

• Administrative data (‘records’)

– Educational enrolment data – Migration records

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– Employment services records

LMIA systems Sources of labour statistics Sources of labour statistics

Strengths Limitations Sampling prevents reliable estimates for small Household surveys Comprehensive coverage of population Detailed questioning permits precise measurement of statistical concepts for short reference periods Sampling prevents reliable estimates for small groups Lower quality of data on income, “sensitive” and employer-related topics Cannot provide estimates of vacancies, t i i d t training needs, etc Comprehensive coverage of larger businesses Typically poor coverage of very small and unregistered businesses Requires constant updating of registers (births Establishment surveys businesses Payroll records provide consistent and reliable data for income and employment by industry Only source for data on vacancies, t i i d t and deaths) Difficult identification of small or informal units High non-response rates Sampling prevents reliable estimates for small groups training needs, etc groups Data items are limited by the information in establishment’s registers Administrative Total count allows maximum detail Often poor coverage Often not up to date Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends records Inexpensive to compile statistics Often not up to date Data quality may be questionable

Strengths/limitations: implications for an LMIA system for an LMIA system

No single data source can meet all needs

• No single data source can meet all needs
• Use all available sources as components of LMIA

Use all available sources as components of LMIA system

• Know the sources of statistics & be aware of strengths

and limitations

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LMIA systems What is not covered I What is not covered I

• No information on labour market regulation and

g institutions:

– Minimum wages Unionization rates – Unionization rates – Employment protection legislation

• No information on labour market policies

– Unemployment benefits Activation policies (training job centers) – Activation policies (training, job centers) – In-work benefits

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LMIA systems What is not covered II What is not covered II

• No information on the macro-economic environment

– GDP (and its components) – Exchange and interest rates Financial market conditions – Financial market conditions

• No information subjective indicators

j

– Social well-being – Main needs Perception of government activities (red tape trust) – Perception of government activities (red tape, trust)

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LMIA systems What is not covered III What is not covered III

• Additional information is often essential to:

– Analyse what factors drive employment and unemployment rates – How policy makers can influence labour market dynamics How policy makers can influence labour market dynamics – What obstacles exist for employment creation – Which areas to target for policy interventions

• A need for wider data collection effort and collaboration

– Involve research centers and other ministries Involve research centers and other ministries – Use of additional data sources (e.g. Decent Work Indicators) – Benefit from expertise of international agencies for cross- country comparisons

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country comparisons

Target groups & policy development

Function 1 Labour market Function 2 Monitoring & reporting Function 3 Information exchange and

Component 1 Component 2 Component 3

analysis

• n policies

coordination

Component 1 Collection & compilation of data and information Component 2 Analytical capacity and tools Component 3 Institutional arrangements and networks

Third level LMIA system – econometric models Second level LMIA system – analyzing relationships First level LMIA system – tracking indicators Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends Source 1 – household surveys Source 2 – establishment surveys Source 3 – admin records First level LMIA system tracking indicators

LMIA Considerations: maximizing demand from end users demand from end users

• Relevance

– Degree to which statistics and analysis meet users’ needs

• Timeliness

– Time elapsed between release of data and related reports

• Punctuality

– Degree to which pre-announced releases dates are met

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LMIA Considerations: presentation & documentation presentation & documentation

• Accessibility

– Ease with which statistical data and analysis can be obtained by users

• Clarity

– Degree to which statistics and analysis are understandable for non-expert users

• Metadata & methodological documentation

– Availability of information describing sources, definitions and methods

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Key steps in developing an LMIA system system

• Establish appropriate institutional arrangements

among labour market stakeholders on the scope among labour market stakeholders on the scope and modalities of the system

• Build consensus on data and information for a set
• f selected key labour market indicators
• Develop a labour market monitoring strategy,

including specific analytical outputs (reports, etc)

• Develop technical capacity and infrastructure to

collect analyze and disseminate appropriate data collect, analyze and disseminate appropriate data and information

• Produce and disseminate data and analysis

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y according to plan

LMIA systems Experience and examples I Experience and examples I

• LMIA systems become more effective if data

availability and quality improves across all three sources (S1 S2 and S3) and analytical capacity in sources (S1, S2 and S3), and analytical capacity in the system advances, often in accordance with the level of development of a country and the resources th t d il bl t th LMIA t that are made available to the LMIA system.

• See Decent Work Country Profiles Tanzania Brazil
• See Decent Work Country Profiles Tanzania, Brazil,

Ukraine, Austria, at: https://www.ilo.org/integration/lang--en/index.htm

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LMIA systems Experience and examples II

• Comprehensive systems with both analytical and policy

f ti b d ti i d t t k t

Experience and examples II

functions based on time-series data take many years to develop

• Start with ambitious but feasible system (e.g. first level

y ( g system, ‘tracking indicators’, with some additional analysis) N t i i P ki t (fi t l l t )

• Note experience in Pakistan (first level system), see

Pakistan Ministry of Labour and Manpower 2007-2010, Pakistan Employment Trends series (Islamabad), available at: http://www.lmis.gov.pk/Publications.html

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LMIA systems Experience and examples III Experience and examples III

• Note experience in Viet Nam (first level +

Note experience in Viet Nam (first level employment projections), see Viet Nam Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs, 2011, Viet Nam Employment Trends 2010, National Centre for Labour Market Forecast and Information B rea

• f Emplo ment

and Information, Bureau of Employment (Hanoi), available at: http://www un org vn/en/component/docman/ http://www.un.org.vn/en/component/docman/ cat_view/126-un-publications-by-agency/93- ilo-

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publications.html?orderby=dmdate_published

LMIA systems Experience and examples IV

• Many countries are using the MDG employment

indicators as a framework for LMIA often with a strong

Experience and examples IV

indicators as a framework for LMIA, often with a strong role of the statistical office

• Note experience Uganda, see

http://www.ubos.org/index.php

• Policy function is desirable, and should be linked

institutionally with government monitoring system (note institutionally with government monitoring system (note experience in Burkina Faso - observatory and Tanzania – national monitoring system and development plans)

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LMIA systems Key development steps I Key development steps I

• Ensure agreement among stakeholders on:

Functions (analytical policy) – Functions (analytical, policy) – Level (monitoring indicators, advanced functions) – Resources (funding and staff) Resources (funding and staff)

• Plan institutional arrangements with labour

market stakeholders of the system, a et sta e o de s o t e syste , particularly statistical offices and departments

• f labour/education

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LMIA systems Key development steps II Key development steps II

• Plan labour market monitoring (production)

Plan labour market monitoring (production) strategy, including:

• Data plan (sources)
• Products (reports, websites, dissemination strategy)
• Plan and develop technical capacity and

infrastructure infrastructure

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LMIA systems Technical considerations

• Data availability from sources of labour statistics?

Technical considerations

• Indicators in current economic and social plans such

as national development plans? as national development plans?

• Selection of indicators?
• Preparation of data plan in terms of household and

establishment surveys

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LMIA systems Process considerations

• Establishment of a task group on LMIA system,

Process considerations

g p y charged with leading the consultative process and ensuring stakeholder agreement involvement.

• Taskforce will produce:
• Taskforce will produce:

(a) Proposal outlining the functions, target group, planned analytical methods, sources of data and outputs of the LMIA t ll th i tit ti l t f th LMIA system, as well as the institutional set-up of the system, taking existing agreements into account. (b) Proposal for capacity building of the LMIA Unit. (c) Financial proposal.

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An example of an LMIA: Using the KILM

• 7th Edition Key Indicators of the Labour

Using the KILM

7 Edition Key Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM) launched in October 2011

• 18 indicators of the labour market

– Concepts, definitions, limitations, trends analysis

• Downloadable annual data from 1980-MRY

– Spreadsheet, mapping, graphics

• Thematic analytical chapters

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An example of an LMIA: Using the KILM Using the KILM

Two versions of KILM Two versions of KILM

–Stand-alone software package, to be downloaded from: http://www.ilo.org/kilm p g I t t d t b (“KILMN t”) –Internet database (“KILMNet”)

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LMIA systems Availability of Key Indicators Availability of Key Indicators

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Key Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM)

• 1. Labour force participation rate
• 2. Employment-to-population rate

(KILM)

• 3. Employment by status
• 4. Employment by sector

5 Employment by occupation

• 10. Youth unemployment

11 L t l t

• 5. Employment by occupation
• 6. Part-time workers
• 7. Hours of work
• 11. Long-term unemployment
• 12. Time-related underemployment
• 13. Inactivity
• 8. Employment in the informal economy
• 9. Unemployment
• 13. Inactivity
• 14. Educational attainment and illiteracy
• 15. Average wages
• 16. Hourly compensation costs
• 17. Labour productivity

18 P t i di t ib ti d th

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• 18. Poverty, income distribution and the

working poor

KILM and downstream products

• ILO Trends Econometric Models

– Global and regional estimates of key labour market – Global and regional estimates of key labour market indicators including labour force participation, employment, unemployment, employment by sector and status labour productivity and working poverty status, labour productivity and working poverty

• ILO Global Employment Trends series

– Annual report launched in January – Special issues on women, youth, crisis impacts

• MDG Employment Indicator-related publications

A l t l h d i J l b UNSD – Annual report launched in July by UNSD

• Country-level and cross-country studies (working

papers and journal articles)

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papers and journal articles)

An example of an LMIA system: Using the KILM Using the KILM

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An example of an LMIA system: Using the KILM: Thematic sections Using the KILM: Thematic sections

A W ki t i th ld I t d i

• A. Working poverty in the world. Introducing new

estimates using household survey data

• B. Gender equality, employment and part-time work

in developed economies

• C. A labour market analysis of Brazil using KILM and

national data national data

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An example of an LMIA system: Using the KILM: Thematic section A Using the KILM: Thematic section A

Working poverty in the world. Introducing new estimates using household survey data

P i l b l d i l i f h ki b d

• Previous global and regional estimates of the working poor were based
• n a macroeconomic model utilizing a ‘top down’ approach

Key Indicators of the Labour Market 7th edition includes new

• Key Indicators of the Labour Market, 7th edition, includes new

household-survey based estimates of the working poor for 54 countries

• The dataset is used to produce revised global and regional estimates
• The dataset is used to produce revised global and regional estimates
• n working poverty based on a new methodology

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Regional coverage of national working poverty estimates working poverty estimates

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Working poverty: Global and regional estimates I Global and regional estimates I

Model characteristics Previous model Current model Step 1: Ratio of the working poverty rate (aged 15 d b ) t th t t l t t ( d 0 Dependent variable years and above) to the total poverty rate (aged 0 years and above) Poverty rate for population aged 0 years and above Step 2: Share of working poor aged 15 and above in total working-age (15+) population S 1 E l l i i i f h Independent variables Step 1: Employment-to-population ratio; ratio of the working-age (15+) population to the total population; log of labour productivity, measured as output per worker Independent variables Log of per-capita GDP; country dummy variables Step 2: Share of employment in agriculture; share of the population aged 25-54 years; log of labour productivity interacted with regional dummy variables; country dummy variables Regression specification Linear regression conducted separately for each region Pooled linear regression (including all countries) with regional interaction variables Methodology for generating working Multiply estimated poverty rate by labour force (lower- Estimated on the basis of above regression equations Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends generating working poverty estimate bound) or working-age population (upper-bound)

Working poverty: Global and regional estimates II Global and regional estimates II

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An example of an LMIA system: Using the KILM: Thematic section B Using the KILM: Thematic section B

Gender equality, employment and part-time work in developed economies

P i k (M/F) h b i i d l d i

• Part-time work (M/F) has been growing in many developed economies;

it is increasingly relevant in some developing economies as well Growth in part time work has led to a more female employment but the

• Growth in part-time work has led to a more female employment, but the

relationship with gender equality is more ambiguous, as female part- time employment creates additional inequality in terms of average hours of work (and may crowd out full time employment) ( y p y )

• Part-time work can contribute to both employment creation and gender

equality if certain conditions are met (including those set out in

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Convention 175)

An example of an LMIA system: Using the KILM: Thematic section C Using the KILM: Thematic section C

A labour market analysis of Brazil using KILM and national data

R i f ll K I di f h L b M k i B il

• Review of all Key Indicators of the Labour Market in Brazil
• Paper addresses questions such as to extent to which economic

growth has been reflected in improved labour market outcomes in growth has been reflected in improved labour market outcomes in terms of employment, unemployment, informal employment, etc.

• Brazil is interesting because disaggregations are made for ethnic
• Brazil is interesting because disaggregations are made for ethnic

groups and rural/urban areas; such breakdowns are normally not available in the KILM

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An example of an LMIA system: Using the KILM: Indicators Using the KILM: Indicators

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An example of an LMIA system: Using the KILM: Indicators Using the KILM: Indicators

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An example of an LMIA system: Using the KILM: Indicators Using the KILM: Indicators

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An example of an LMIA system: Using the KILM: Indicators Using the KILM: Indicators

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An example of an LMIA system: Using the KILM: Indicators Using the KILM: Indicators

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An example of an LMIA system: Using the KILM: Indicators Using the KILM: Indicators

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An example of an LMIA system: Using the KILM: Indicators Using the KILM: Indicators

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An example of an LMIA system: Using the KILM: Indicators Using the KILM: Indicators

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An example of an LMIA system: Using the KILM: Indicator 2 Using the KILM: Indicator 2

KILM 2: Employment-to-population ratio

• Two series:

– Nationally-reported estimates – Harmonized series of ILO estimates (using benchmark UN pop lation estimates in combination ith indicators from national population estimates in combination with indicators from national sources)

• Manuscript in KILM contains the following standardized sections
• Manuscript in KILM contains the following standardized sections

– Introduction (e.g. number of countries covered) – Use of the indicator (analytical purpose, interpretation) Definition and sources (including reference to international – Definition and sources (including reference to international statistical standards) – Limitations to comparability (e.g. in terms of age groups) – Trends

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Trends

An example of an LMIA system: Using the KILM: Indicator 4 Using the KILM: Indicator 4

KILM 4: Employment by sector

• Four series:

– Employment by aggregate sector (agriculture, industry, services; by sex) Emplo ment b 1 digit sector (ISIC Re 4 2008 b se ) – Employment by 1-digit sector (ISIC Rev. 4, 2008; by sex) – Employment by 1-digit sector (ISIC Rev. 3, 1990; by sex) – Employment by 1-digit sector (ISIC Rev. 2, 1968; by sex)

• Manuscript in KILM contains the following standardized sections

– Introduction (e.g. number of countries covered) U f th i di t ( l ti l i t t ti ) – Use of the indicator (analytical purpose, interpretation) – Definition and sources (including reference to international statistical standards) Limitations to comparability (e g in terms of age groups)

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– Limitations to comparability (e.g. in terms of age groups) – Trends

An example of an LMIA system: Using the KILM: Indicator 4 Using the KILM: Indicator 4

KILM 4: Figure 4c. Average sectoral growth rates, 1998-2008

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An example of an LMIA system: Using the KILM: Indicator 5 Using the KILM: Indicator 5

KILM 5: Employment by occupation

• Two series:
• Two series:

– Employment by occupation (ISCO 88; by sex) – Employment by occupation (ISCO 68; by sex)

• Manuscript in KILM includes references to ISCO 08, but the KILM does not yet

contain data based on the new classification Some changes in ISCO 08 in comparison with ISCO 88 (box 5b):

• Occupations associated with information and communication technology have

been updated and expanded, allowing for the identification of professional and associate professional occupations in this field as sub-major groups.

• Occupations concerned with the provision of health services have been

expanded in order to provide sufficient detail to allow ISCO 08 to be used as

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expanded, in order to provide sufficient detail to allow ISCO-08 to be used as the basis for the international reporting of data on the health workforce.

An example of an LMIA system: Using the KILM: Indicator 14 Using the KILM: Indicator 14

KILM 14: Educational attainment and illiteracy

• Four series:
• Four series:

– Table 14a shows the distribution of the educational attainment of the labour force broken down by sex and by the following age cohorts wherever force broken down by sex and by the following age cohorts wherever possible: total (15 years and over), youth (15 to 24 years), young adult (25 to 29 years) and adult (30 years and over) – Table 14b shows the percentage distribution of a country’s total unemployed according to five levels of schooling - less than one year, preprimary level, primary level, secondary level, and tertiary level – Table 14c provides information on the unemployment rate, that is, the share

• f the

nemplo ed in the labo r force according to three gro pings of

• f the unemployed in the labour force, according to three groupings of

educational attainment: primary or less, secondary and tertiary – Table 14d presents information on illiteracy rates – the percentage of illiterate persons in the population – for the total, youth and adult

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illiterate persons in the population for the total, youth and adult populations

An example of an LMIA system: Using the KILM: Indicator 14 Using the KILM: Indicator 14

KILM 14: Educational attainment and illiteracy, Table 14a, distribution of the educational attainment of the labour force (figure 14a)

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An example of an LMIA system: Using the KILM: Indicator 14 Using the KILM: Indicator 14

KILM 14: Educational attainment and illiteracy, Table 14a, distribution of the educational attainment of the labour force (figure 14a)

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Relevant ILO publications

• Global Employment Trends reports

http://www.ilo.org/trends

• ILO MDG Employment Indicators Guide

http://www.ilo.org/empelm/what/lang-- eng/WCMS_114244/index.htm

• ILO Decent Work Indicators (Measuring Decent Work

initiative) http://www.ilo.org/integration/themes/mdw/lang-- en/index htm en/index.htm

• ILO Labour and Social Trends series (ILO Asia-Pacific

regional office)

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regional office)

Exercises

• What are the requirements for an LMIA? How

q could they be met in Trinidad?

• What LMIA elements are available in Trinidad?

Wh t th l t i ht b f l t d t d What other elements might be useful to understand current labour market challenges? Which agency would be responsible for collecting and

• u d be espo s b e o co ec

g a d disseminating them?

• How could collaborate with other research

institutions foster data collection and dissemination?

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